Group 1 - IREN Limited is a new player in the cloud infrastructure sector for AI, offering a unique advantage due to its existing capacity for data deployment [1] - The company aims to identify profitable and undervalued investment opportunities primarily in the U.S. market, focusing on building a high-yield, balanced portfolio [1] Group 2 - The analysis combines macro-economic insights with real-world trading experience to provide actionable investment ideas [1]

Market Overview - The US equity market ended Q4 2025 positively, with the S&P 500 increasing by 2.7%, reflecting steady upward momentum supported by better-than-expected corporate earnings and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate easing stance [1] - The macroeconomic backdrop remained resilient, with improving clarity on trade policy providing additional support [1] - There was a notable divergence below the index level, particularly regarding AI investments, which faced skepticism due to bottlenecks and financing challenges [1] Fund Performance - The Alger Small Cap Focus Fund's Class A shares outperformed the Russell 2000 Growth Index in Q4 2025 [1] - The Utilities and Financials sectors contributed positively to the Fund's performance, while the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors detracted from it [1] Company Spotlight: Nebius Group N.V. - Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company focused on AI-driven cloud infrastructure, with a one-month return of 16.63% and a 52-week gain of 201.69% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, Nebius Group's stock closed at $108.73, with a market capitalization of $27.379 billion [2] - The company operates GPU compute capacity across Europe and is expanding into the U.S., positioning itself as a key player in the AI infrastructure market [3] - Despite facing short-term volatility due to a selloff in AI infrastructure stocks, Nebius continues to secure long-term agreements with major cloud service providers, enhancing revenue visibility [3]

Core Insights - The market has seen aggressive gains in AI-related stocks like Iren Limited, Nebius Group, and CoreWeave, with triple-digit increases in a short period due to enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and data centers [1] - A recent shift in market sentiment has led to stabilization and upward movement in share prices, with improving earnings estimates and renewed investor interest in niche AI infrastructure [2] Iren Limited (IREN) - Iren Limited operates in high-performance data centers and bitcoin mining, supported by renewable energy, positioning it well for rising demand in AI and data-intensive workloads [3] - The company's sales are projected to increase by approximately 120% this year and an additional 151% next year, indicating a strong growth outlook [4] - IREN's stock has recently broken out of a Stage One base, suggesting the beginning of a new uptrend, supported by accelerating fundamentals and improving technical structure [5] Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) - Nebius Group focuses on AI infrastructure and cloud services, providing high-performance compute capacity for AI workloads, which positions it within the core layers of the AI infrastructure stack [8] - The stock has risen nearly 5% recently, reflecting improving investor sentiment, with sales expected to surge by 376% next year [9] - Nebius has also broken out from a Stage One base, indicating potential for a new uptrend, with both technical momentum and earnings expectations on the rise [10] CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) - CoreWeave specializes in high-performance GPU compute for AI and advanced data workloads, establishing itself as a key player in AI-focused cloud capacity [12] - The stock has increased by over 6%, signaling a constructive rebound, with projected sales growth of 126% next year [13] - CoreWeave has broken out from a Stage One base, suggesting a transition to a new uptrend, supported by accelerating revenue growth and improving analyst sentiment [14] Market Outlook - All three companies are showing patterns of improving earnings outlooks, renewed investor interest, and technical breakouts, indicating a potential return of risk appetite in the AI infrastructure sector [16]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high, driven by technology stocks and AI investments [1][2] - Analysts express concerns that some leading stocks may be overvalued due to unrealistic growth expectations [2][3] Company Analysis: Palantir - Palantir Technologies is experiencing significant growth, with a 63% revenue increase last quarter and a 121% rise in U.S. commercial revenue [7] - The launch of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is a key factor in its growth, allowing users to interact with data using natural language [5][6] - Despite impressive growth metrics, Palantir's stock is considered overvalued, with a forward P/E ratio of 268 and a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 100 [8] - RBC Capital has set a price target of $50 for Palantir, indicating a potential downside of 74% from its current price of $190.58 [6][8] Company Analysis: CoreWeave - CoreWeave has reported a 134% revenue growth in the most recent quarter, driven by contracts with major clients like Microsoft and Nvidia [9] - The company has a significant debt load of $14 billion, which has doubled from the previous year, raising concerns about its financial strategy [10] - CoreWeave's revenue backlog has reached $55.6 billion, but this is not guaranteed revenue as clients can reduce or withdraw contracts [11][13] - The company's operating margin has compressed to 16%, with interest expenses exceeding its adjusted operating income of $217 million [14] - DA Davidson has set a price target of $36 for CoreWeave, suggesting a downside of 54% from its current price of $76.90 [6][10]

Economic Outlook - New York Fed President John Williams expressed optimism about the economy, stating that current data is "pretty encouraging" and sees no signs of a sharp deterioration in job data [1] - He projected US GDP growth for this year to be between 1.5% and 1.75%, with expectations of growth picking up next year [1] - The University of Michigan's December 1-year inflation expectations were revised upward to 4.2% from 4.1% [1] Consumer Sentiment and Housing Market - The University of Michigan's December consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised downward by -0.4 to 52.9, below expectations of 53.5 [2] - Existing home sales in the US for November rose by +0.5% month-over-month to a 9-month high of 4.13 million, although this was weaker than the expected 4.15 million [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 up by +0.88%, the Dow Jones up by +0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by +1.31% [6] - A rally in cloud infrastructure stocks, particularly Oracle which rose more than 7%, contributed to improved market sentiment [5] - The overall market was also supported by gains in chipmakers, with Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices seeing significant increases [14] Bond Market Dynamics - Higher bond yields limited stock gains, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by +2 bp to 4.15% [3] - The yield curve has steepened since the last FOMC meeting, indicating bearish sentiment for T-note prices [10] International Market Trends - Overseas stock markets also settled higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by +0.32%, Shanghai Composite up by +0.36%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 up by +1.03% [8] Notable Stock Movements - Cloud infrastructure stocks saw significant gains, with CoreWeave up +23% and Applied Digital up +16% [13] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose, with Bitcoin increasing by more than +2% and Riot Platforms closing up more than +8% [15] - Carnival's stock rose more than +9% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS [17] - Lamb Weston Holdings led the S&P 500 losers, down more than -25% after forecasting lower-than-expected full-year net sales [19]

Market Overview - Markets are experiencing volatility as 2025 approaches, with signs of weakness in the artificial intelligence sector, particularly highlighted by Oracle's data center issues [1] - Economic sentiment is declining, and the job market is showing instability, contributing to investor anxiety [1] Technical Analysis Insights - In uncertain market conditions, investors often rely on technical analysis to predict short-term price movements, focusing on price patterns rather than fundamental metrics [2] - Technical indicators are crucial for identifying stocks with bearish trends, which may indicate further price declines [3] Stocks to Sell Cabot Corp. (NYSE:CBT) - Cabot Corp. has a market cap of $3.5 billion and annual sales of $3.7 billion, operating in the chemicals and materials sector [4] - The stock is facing technical resistance, trading below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with a weakening Relative Strength Index (RSI) [6] - A short position is recommended due to the stock's recent performance and technical indicators [6] CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) - CoreWeave, a cloud infrastructure provider, has a market cap of $26 billion but has seen its stock price drop over 40% in the last three months due to concerns over AI capital spending [7] - The stock is exhibiting a "Death Cross" pattern, indicating a potential continuation of its downtrend [9] Equity Bancshares Inc. (NYSE:EQBK) - Equity Bancshares has a market cap under $1 billion and has recently projected a decline in net interest margin for 2026, despite a 15% stock price increase over the last month [11] - The stock is currently overbought, with an RSI of 77, suggesting it may be a good time to take profits [13] AMREP Corp. (NYSE:AXR) - AMREP Corp. has a market cap of $100 million and reported a nearly 20% year-over-year revenue decline in its latest earnings [14] - The stock has dropped 30% over the last three months, with bearish technical indicators suggesting further downside [16] Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE:TFC) - Truist Financial, with a market cap of $64 billion, has strong fundamentals but is facing analyst downgrades and technical red flags [17] - The stock has gained 12% in the last month but is now considered overbought with an RSI of 76, indicating a potential reversal in momentum [19]

Economic Outlook - New York Fed President John Williams expressed optimism about the economy, stating that some data is "pretty encouraging" and there is no sign of a sharp deterioration in jobs data [1] - He projected US GDP growth for this year to be between 1.5% and 1.75%, with expectations of growth picking up next year [1] Consumer Sentiment and Housing Market - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December was unexpectedly revised downward by -0.4 to 52.9, falling short of expectations [2] - Existing home sales in the US for November rose by +0.5% month-over-month to a 9-month high of 4.13 million, although this was below the expected 4.15 million [2][4] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes showed positive movement, with the S&P 500 up by +0.67%, the Dow Jones up by +0.56%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by +0.94% [6] - A rally in cloud infrastructure stocks, particularly Oracle which rose by more than 7%, contributed to improved market sentiment [5][13] Bond Market Dynamics - Higher bond yields are limiting stock gains, with the 10-year T-note yield increasing by +2 basis points to 4.14% [3] - The yield curve has steepened since the last FOMC meeting, impacting T-note prices negatively due to increased demand for short-term government debt [10] International Markets - Overseas stock markets also experienced gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by +0.40%, China's Shanghai Composite up by +0.36%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 up by +1.03% [8] Company-Specific Movements - Carnival Corp reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, exceeding consensus expectations of 24 cents, leading to a stock increase of more than +9% [16] - Whitefiber Inc saw a stock increase of more than +7% following a significant co-location agreement, representing around $865 million in contracted revenue [17] - Nike's stock fell by more than -8% after forecasting a decline in Q3 revenue and gross margins due to ongoing weakness in China [19] - Lamb Weston Holdings forecasted full-year net sales below consensus, leading to a stock decline of more than -23% [18]

First of all, we know Oracle has commented on this and they're saying they're pushing back. Tell us, though, what you guys found out. What you found out.Right. Yeah. Oracle is saying that we have a huge contract with open air that's, you know, four and a half gigawatts.They're on the hook to develop data centers larger than I've ever been done. And in a shorter timeframe, they're saying that we're going to be able to deliver on our contracts and deliver on our expansions. Right.What we reported today is tha ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's disappointing Q2 2026 earnings results have led to a significant drop in its stock price, impacting the broader tech and AI sectors [2][3][8] Financial Performance - Oracle reported non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26, a 54% increase, and total revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% increase [6] - Analysts had expected total revenue to be higher at $16.21 billion, leading to investor disappointment despite the EPS beating expectations [3] Market Reaction - Oracle's stock price fell over 12% to $196.25 per share following the earnings report [8] - Major chip companies in the AI space experienced stock price declines, including AMD, Arm, Broadcom, Intel, Micron, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and TSMC, with drops ranging from 0.9% to 1.4% [7] Industry Concerns - The announcement of new agreements with AI investors like Nvidia and Meta raised concerns about circular spending in the AI industry, contributing to fears of an AI bubble [4] - Oracle's remaining performance obligations increased to $523 billion, but the circular spending concerns have renewed skepticism among investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's disappointing Q2 2026 earnings results have led to a significant drop in its stock price, impacting the broader tech and AI sectors [2][3][8]. Financial Performance - Oracle reported non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26, a 54% increase year-over-year, and total revenue of $16.1 billion, up 14% [6]. - Despite beating EPS expectations, Oracle's total revenue fell short of analyst forecasts of $16.21 billion, contributing to a 12% decline in its stock price [3][8]. Market Reaction - Following Oracle's earnings report, major chip companies in the AI space experienced stock price declines, including Advanced Micro Devices (down 1.2%), Arm Holdings (down 1.2%), and Nvidia (down 1.3%) [7]. - Broader tech stocks also faced declines, with Alphabet down 0.5%, Amazon down 0.7%, and Microsoft down 0.6% [10]. Industry Concerns - Oracle's new agreements with AI investors like Nvidia and Meta have raised concerns about circular spending in the AI industry, which could indicate a potential bubble [4]. - The total remaining performance obligations for Oracle increased to $523 billion, but investor fears about the sustainability of AI investments have intensified [4].