Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley initially targeted 6,500 for the S&P 500 this year, slightly below the median of 6,600 [1] - The call for 2026 is a continuation of this year's outlook, expecting to end up a little above target [2] - The firm maintained its targets, anticipating a tough first half followed by a strong second half due to administration policies [3] - The market is expected to see more positive effects from fiscal policy in 2026, supported by the Federal Reserve's "run-in hot strategy" [4] Economic Strategy - The "run hot" strategy, aimed at growing out of debt and deficit issues, involves higher growth and inflation, requiring Fed tolerance [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate again, benefiting earnings growth if the Fed remains supportive, similar to the situation in 2021 [7] - The economy is transitioning from a rolling recession that bottomed in April to an accelerating phase with both real growth and inflation [10] Sector Preferences - Favored sectors include consumer discretionary, financials, small caps, some healthcare, and software over semiconductors [8] - Consumer discretionary is expected to perform well due to pricing power in an inflationary environment [8] Consumer Impact - Consumers can tolerate higher inflation with rising wages, which is part of the policy plan, including restricting immigration to boost real wage growth [11] - A three-year recession in consumer goods with low volume growth is now changing, driven by policy changes and pent-up demand [11][12]

Market Sentiment - The markets are experiencing jitters ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with a mixed performance observed in stocks [1][4] - The VIX index has seen a significant drop from 15.28 to 7.43, indicating increased market volatility [2] - The 10-year yield has risen to 4.2%, suggesting that investors are anticipating a hawkish stance from Jerome Powell [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding whether Jerome Powell will implement a hawkish cut or focus on inflation and labor market concerns [3][4] - A potential reversal in market sentiment could occur if Powell shifts his tone towards a more dovish approach [4] Fed Chair Speculation - Kevin Hassett is currently viewed as the likely candidate for the next Fed chair, although Kevin Warsh's name is also being discussed due to his innovative views on interest rates [5][6] - Warsh has expressed that inflation is a choice and believes that AI will have a deflationary effect on the economy [7][8] Mortgage Market Insights - Recent data shows that mortgage applications increased by 4.8%, driven by a 14.3% rise in refinances, while purchase applications fell by 2.4% [9][10] - The increase in refinances is attributed to a drop in FHA mortgage rates, highlighting the sensitivity of the mortgage market to interest rate changes [10]

Jobless Claims Data - Initial Jobless Claims reported at 191K and Continuing Claims at 1.939 million, significantly lower than recent trends, indicating potential inaccuracies in data or a resilient labor market [1][2] - Current job losses in the private sector reported by ADP and anticipated layoffs from major corporations contrast with low jobless claims, suggesting that the labor market may be experiencing structural changes [2][3] - The latest Initial Claims figures are the lowest since late September 2022, with Continuing Claims remaining below the psychologically significant 2 million mark since Memorial Day [3] Earnings Reports - Dollar General (DG) exceeded earnings expectations by 39%, reporting $1.28 per share against a consensus of 92 cents, with revenues of $10.65 billion, leading to a pre-market share increase of over 5% [5] - Kroger (KR) reported earnings of $1.05 per share, slightly above estimates, but revenues of $33.86 billion fell short of expectations, resulting in a pre-market share decline of 2.8% [6] - Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported earnings of $2.36 per share, surpassing estimates by 9.26%, with revenues of $6.73 billion exceeding projections by 5.24%, leading to flat share performance [7] - Build-a-Bear Workshops (BBW) showed mixed results with a bottom-line beat of 12.7% at 62 cents per share, but a sales miss of 1.28% at $122.68 million, causing a pre-market share drop of 6.6% [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the expertise of Michael Del Monte as a buy-side equity analyst specializing in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services across various industries including Oil & Gas, Oilfield Services, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary [1]

Summary of Global MNCs China Sentiment Index (3Q25) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the sentiment of global multinational corporations (MNCs) towards China, specifically through the AlphaWise Global MNC China Sentiment Index for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) [1][2]. Key Findings 1. **Sentiment Improvement**: The sentiment reading for MNCs increased by 3 points from 2Q25, reaching a score of 31. The percentage of MNCs with a positive outlook rose to 61%, up from 58% in the previous quarter [3][4]. 2. **Sector Performance**: Out of 12 sectors, 8 showed a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) improvement in sentiment. The Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Consumer Discretionary sectors experienced the most significant increases, while Energy, Real Estate, and Materials sectors saw declines [5][12]. 3. **Regional Sentiment**: The sentiment scores improved notably in the US (up 18 points), while Japan's sentiment dropped by 5 points compared to 2Q25 [3][28]. Thematic Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: The Consumer theme saw the largest increase in sentiment, rising by 17 points. Labor, Regulations, Macro/Economy, and Supply Chain themes also improved, while Trade/Tariff and Cost themes declined [4][12]. - **Macroeconomic Context**: There is a general expectation of stabilization in 2026 following high returns in 2025, with moderate earnings per share (EPS) growth anticipated. The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental and thematic stock picking as China navigates its position in the global tech race [12][13]. Additional Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: Positive feedback from foreign investors regarding the Chinese equity market is noted, with expectations of continued net inflows into the market in the coming year [12]. - **Geopolitical Considerations**: Concerns regarding macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties were highlighted by various companies during their earnings calls, indicating a cautious outlook despite some positive trends [19][22]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards China among global MNCs has improved in 3Q25, driven by positive developments in trade relations and pro-growth policies. However, challenges remain, particularly in the macroeconomic landscape and geopolitical tensions, which could impact future sentiment and investment decisions [12][19].

Core Insights - The article highlights the expertise of Michael Del Monte as a buy-side equity analyst specializing in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services across various industries including Oil & Gas, Oilfield Services, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary [1]

Holiday Spending Forecast - National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 4% gain in retail sales for November and December, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [1] - The forecast of 37% to 42% growth translates to $1 trillion in sales [8][11] - Consumer spending on gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal goods is expected to be $890, slightly down from $902 last year [7] Consumer Behavior & Confidence - Consumers demonstrate engagement in commerce despite low economic confidence [3][4] - Consumers are prioritizing holiday spending by seeking value, convenience, reducing savings, and taking on more debt [5] - Consumers tend to spend more during big shopping weekends than initially indicated in surveys [10] Economic Factors & Retailer Sentiment - Goods inflation is almost flat, and food inflation is around 1%, with some category exceptions [6] - Retailers have generally reported positive earnings despite economic uncertainty, tariffs, and government shutdown [14] - Consumers and retailers are showing resilience in the face of adversity, uncertainty, and volatility [14][15] - Wages are slightly ahead of inflation, contributing to real spending and purchasing power [15]

Group 1 - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology [1] - The focus has shifted from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where hundreds of companies have been researched [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with consumer discretionary, staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

[music] [music] Hello and welcome to Ask for a Trend. I'm Josh Whipton. For the next half hour, we are breaking [music] down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow.There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on [music] what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving right into. A stunning reversal on Wall Street Thursday.[music] Dow industrials erasing a 700 point gain. The NASDAQ sinking 2%. Strong results from Walmart, Nvidia, [music] n ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Michael Del Monte, a buy-side equity analyst with over a decade of experience in various sectors including technology, energy, industrials, and materials [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has a strong background in professional services, having worked across multiple industries such as Oil & Gas (O&G), Oilfield Services (OFS), Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary [1]. Group 2: Investment Position - The article indicates that the analyst holds a beneficial long position in the shares of PWR, which may include stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [2]. Group 3: Disclosure and Performance - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results and that no specific investment recommendations are provided [3].