AI专题·从海外C端应用看AI进展 订阅服务迎来价值增量， 广告平台有望持续增长 西南证券研究院 海外研究团队 2025年7月 核心观点 目 录 一、C端应用：订阅平台表现相对领先，广告平台基本面持续改善 三、广告平台：AI助力广告转化效率增强，平台收入增长加速 2.1 Duolingo：AI功能打造Max订阅层级，高级订阅持续渗透 2.2 Spotify：AI功能支撑订阅服务涨价，带动用户付费水平提升 二、订阅平台：AI带来订阅产品价值提升，业绩贡献逐渐清晰 3.1 Snapchat：广告收入同比增速由负转正，Snapchat+贡献订阅增量 3.2 Pinterest：广告工具Performance+效果增强，广告投资回报表现强劲 1.1 平台业务对比：产品内容形式各异，收入及成本类型差异明显 1.2 AI进展对比：AI功能持续迭代，降本增效及收入贡献日益显现 2 1 C端应用：订阅平台表现相对领先，广告平台基本面持续改善 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-0 ...

Spotify revamps its Discover Weekly playlist after ten years | TechCrunch https://t.co/lzgdwRMqQj ...

18 June 2025 | 6:46AM HKT Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Constructive outlook on faster SVIP penetration, non-subs business long-term potential; Raise TP, Buy | TME | 12m Price Target: $21.00 | Price: $18.20 | Upside: 15.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1698.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$82.00 | Price: HK$73.40 | Upside: 11.7% | We raise TME's TP to US$21/HK$82 and reiterate our Buy rating on the name. The stock has rallied +69% YTD (vs. HSTech +18%), on the back of solid music growth visibility and pr ...

Company Overview - Spotify has achieved a remarkable 57% return for investors since the beginning of the year, with its stock trading at a record high despite broader market turmoil [2] - The company holds a dominant position in the music streaming industry with a global market share of 31.7%, significantly ahead of Tencent Music at 14.4% [4] Market Strategy - Spotify is heavily investing in podcasting and video content to enhance user engagement, with users spending 44% more time on video content compared to the previous year [5] - The introduction of a new compensation model for creators has resulted in over $100 million paid out in the first quarter of 2025, potentially leading to an influx of new content [5] Technological Advancements - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to improve user experience, including features like AI Playlist that generates song lists based on user prompts [6][7] - These AI-driven features aim to increase user engagement and retention on the platform [7] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, Spotify reported 268 million paying subscribers and 423 million free users, with paying subscribers accounting for 90% of revenue [8] - Revenue projections indicate a record $20.5 billion for 2025, representing a 13.7% increase from the previous year, and $23.7 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 15.7% [9] Profitability - Spotify's operating expenses decreased by 2% in Q1, leading to a significant 158% year-over-year increase in free cash flow to $615 million [10] - Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $10.33 in 2025, a 63% increase from the previous year, and $14.88 in 2026, indicating further growth [10] Valuation Concerns - Despite positive growth indicators, Spotify's stock is trading at a high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8.6, the highest since its IPO in 2018 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 119, making it significantly more expensive than the S&P 500, which has a P/E ratio of 23.7 [13] - Even with projected EPS for 2025 and 2026, Spotify's forward P/E ratios remain high at 69 and 48, respectively, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [14] Long-term Outlook - CEO Daniel Ek has projected that Spotify could reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2032, indicating a potential fivefold increase from 2025 expectations [16][17] - However, the evolving competitive landscape and technological advancements could impact this long-term vision, making current investment decisions more complex [17]

Key Takeaways SPOT's Q1 operating income skyrocketed 203% as revenues rose 15% and expenses dropped 3% year over year. The gross margin hit 31.6%, with the Premium and Ad-Supported segments gaining 332 and 885 bps, respectively. SPOT's ROIC beat AMZN's 24%, but its ROE lagged AAPL's 167.2% and AMZN's 24.1% by a wide margin.Spotify Technology S.A.’s (SPOT) first-quarter 2025 profitability was top-tier, driven by robust top-line growth and disciplined expense management. Revenues increased 15% year over yea ...

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE: TME ) is essentially the Spotify/Apple Music of China. Its core products are music apps such as QQ Music and Kugou Music. As of 1q25, it has over 550 millionI'm Michael from Hong Kong. I focus on consumer discretionary and financial services sector in the US and China. My investment time frame is 0.5-2 years. I hold a bachelors in commerce with high distinction from the University of Toronto, specializing in finance and economics. I am passionate about value investin ...

While short videos are all the rage lately, Tencent Music's latest acquisition bolsters its position in the strategically important market for long-form audio contentKey Takeaways:Tencent Music will pay $1.26 billion for Ximalaya, China's leading audio platform that boasts more than 600 million usersXimalaya's products have been included in the onboard audio offerings of more than 80 carmakers, including Tesla and NioBy Lee Shih TaIn today's increasingly video-dominated media world, predictions of the death ...

Core Insights - LiveOne reported record revenue and adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025, surpassing guidance significantly, indicating strong operational performance and effective cost-reduction initiatives [1][2]. Financial Performance - Fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue reached $114.4 million, exceeding guidance by $2.4 million [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 was $18.2 million, beating guidance by over 51% or $6.2 million [1]. - Q4 Fiscal 2025 revenue was $19.3 million, down from $30.9 million in Q4 Fiscal 2024, primarily due to reduced Slacker radio revenues [4]. - The operating loss for Q4 Fiscal 2025 was $8.2 million, compared to a loss of $1.2 million in Q4 Fiscal 2024 [4]. - Q4 Fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 million, down from $2.8 million in Q4 Fiscal 2024 [5]. Operational Highlights - The Audio Division, which includes Slacker Radio and PodcastOne, contributed an adjusted EBITDA of $4.1 million in Q4 Fiscal 2025, driven by improved contribution margins and reduced operating expenses [5]. - The company implemented cost-reduction initiatives that improved profitability and strengthened market position [2]. Future Outlook - LiveOne plans to host a conference call and webcast on June 26, 2025, to discuss earnings and current B2B partnerships, including with Tesla [1][8].

Spotify (SPOT) is currently in its 10th Phase out of the 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle. While the stock has been extremely bullish lately, some key dates ahead could mark a potential peak. Here’s why.Spotify's Cycle So FarSo far, Spotify has maintained a strong 88.88% alignment with the Adhishthana Principles, our cyclical framework that combines proprietary behavioral archetypes, quantitative signals, and timing structures.Here are some notable alignment milestones:Phase 2: The Rally of BuddhiFig.1 Spotify Ph ...

Group 1 - Pang Donglai estimates a net profit of approximately 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, with over 8,000 employees earning an average after-tax monthly income of 9,000 yuan [1] - As of June 9, 2025, Pang Donglai Group's total sales have exceeded 10.6 billion yuan [1] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise above 3,400 points, with significant gains in rare earth and automotive parts sectors [1] Group 2 - Tencent Music announced the acquisition of Ximalaya for approximately $12.6 billion in cash and stock, totaling around $27-28 billion [2] - Ximalaya's decision to sell follows multiple unsuccessful attempts to go public, indicating a search for stability [2] - The audio streaming industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with ByteDance aggressively expanding its market presence [2] Group 3 - 52TOYS has submitted its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to capitalize on the popularity of collectible toys [3] - The company has secured new financing from various institutions, positioning itself among the top three IP toy companies in China by GMV [3] - The success of Pop Mart, driven by its LABUBU IP, sets a high benchmark for 52TOYS in the collectible toy market [3] Group 4 - The AI wave is rapidly reshaping the business landscape, with significant reductions in computing costs and an explosion of application scenarios [4] - Investors are keenly observing industry trends to identify potential opportunities in AI applications and hardware integration [4] - The focus for investment in the latter half of 2025 is expected to be on AI applications and their combination with hardware [4]