以下文章来源于斑马消费 ，作者陈碧婷 斑马消费 . 寻找泛消费领域的斑马企业 来源丨 斑马消费（ID:banmaxiaofei） 作者丨陈碧婷 图源丨豆包AI 在线音乐行业，正在走出一个漫长的周期。从平台格局到商业模式，从内容分发到用户留存，这场由 版权驱动的旧秩序，正在被算法与行为数据重构。 数字音乐市场在过去十几年里完成了从盗版野蛮生长到正版平台化竞争的转折。但随着抖音以汽水音 乐为代表的搅局者入局，一个算法主导下的后版权时代也正在加速显形。 草莽时期，"神仙"难下手 中国的数字音乐产业最初处于无序发展阶段，整个市场被盗版和未经授权的内容主导。彼时的主流音 乐平台，包括千千静听、酷狗音乐、百度 MP3 等，普遍采用 P2P 搜索与聚合方式构建曲库。这些 平台依赖用户上传和互联网抓取构建音乐数据库，并通过广告或客户端推广获得收入。 以虾米音乐为例，公开资料显示，其初期以用户上传为主，强调编辑打榜和社区推荐，曲库大多由用 户贡献。用户对"免费听歌"的预期长期固化，也缺乏对内容付费的基本认知。 这一阶段的盈利困境同样反映在新兴平台上。网易云音乐于 2013 年正式上线，初期在无版权积累基 础下，主要依赖广告联盟 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - Recent adjustments in consumer spending on gaming, trendy toys, and music, along with significant fluctuations in Hong Kong's cloud computing and AI applications, are attributed to crowded trading, domestic demand concerns, and product cycle volatility. However, the report suggests that overly high expectations have been digested, and the upward trend in fundamentals remains intact [2]. - The report highlights advancements in AI, particularly with the release of Google's Gemini 3, which showcases significant performance improvements. In China, applications like Alibaba's Qianwen and Ant Group's Lingguang are evolving from chatbots to consumer-facing application ecosystems [2]. - The gaming sector has seen a substantial drop in valuations, now around a PE of 15x for 2026. Despite this, there are positive developments, including a stronger willingness to pay among younger users and potential growth from overseas markets. The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated competition based on user demographics and game categories [2]. - The music industry is experiencing a shift, with a notable adjustment in the past two months. The report discusses the stratification of music consumption and the challenges faced by platforms like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music in monetizing their offerings effectively [2]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report notes the impressive capabilities of overseas AI models like Google's Gemini 3 and highlights the competitive landscape in China, where companies are vying for market share in AI applications [2]. - Key recommendations include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, and Baidu, with a focus on their respective AI advancements and market strategies [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is projected to recover, with new product launches expected to drive revenue growth. The report identifies several companies with strong potential, including Giant Network and Tencent Holdings, emphasizing their innovative game offerings and market positioning [2][4]. - The report also mentions the increasing number of game licenses being issued, which could benefit companies that adapt to differentiated competition strategies [2]. Music Industry - The report discusses the recent adjustments in the music sector, particularly the impact of platforms like Soda Music, and the need for increased investment in copyright to enhance advertising ROI [2]. - Companies like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are highlighted for their core user communities and membership models, which are essential for their revenue generation [2]. Other Notable Companies - The report also mentions other companies of interest, including Pop Mart, Damai Entertainment, and Alibaba Health, indicating a broader focus on the entertainment and health sectors [2].

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 在被颠覆的恐惧中开启自救。 作者丨 陈梓洁 编辑丨 曹宾玲 来源丨表外表里 在武汉，几栋不起眼的红色矮楼静卧于汉江湾，国内知名 音乐公司海葵音乐 便是在那里 ，创造出 6亿的年产值。 短短 5年 时 间， 海葵音乐就 从 29名员工 壮大为 500人 的 音乐集团， 投资的音乐工作室超 170家 。 一千公里外的成都，另一位头部玩家阔景音乐，被视为 "凤头"引入音乐 文创园 。 今年前 8个月， 园内 规上企业营收 同比 增长 47.7% ， 是全国 音乐产业增长最快的区域之一。 这两家成功的音乐公司，股权架构里都有一个相同的名字 ——腾讯音乐（TME）。 通过层层投资， TME与大量音乐公司形成联盟，也是"财富共同体"。2025Q3，其营收 增长 20.6% 至 84.6亿元，调整后净利润飙升 27 % ， 实现连续 8个季度的双位数高增长。 而 TME，仅仅是音乐产业蝶变的缩影。 随着短视频崛起、音乐进入市场化时代，行业加速洗牌，在线音乐平台吞下了更多份额，传统唱片公 司也在被颠覆的恐 ...

在传统在线音乐平台的增长逻辑里，"付费"、"版权"一直是最稳健、最可预测的商业引擎。但今年三季报的信号正在松动这一共识：腾讯音乐增速趋稳、 多项核心指标到达平台期；网易云音乐则陷入营收增长停滞。 这些变化或许并不只是单个平台的阶段性波动，而是音乐行业整体踏入了"下一个问题周期"。同时期内，字节系的汽水音乐和番茄畅听音乐版则以更激进 的增长速度不断蚕食用户时长，让今年行业内首次出现一条清晰的"交叉曲线"——主流付费平台增长放缓，免费入口以更快的速度向上突破。 竞争版图因此出现新的裂缝，并在被重新书写。 主流平台的增长触顶： 三季报释放的行业级信号 从营收数据看，腾讯音乐在第三季度依旧维持着行业头部的稳健表现。 财报显示，腾讯音乐三季度总营收达84.6亿元，同比增长20.6%，创去年同期以来的新高；调整后净利润24.1亿元，其中在线音乐服务收入以27.2%的增速 冲至69.7亿元。 但在强势数字背后，更关键的指标正在释放拐点信号。 用户付费表现依然稳固。在线音乐付费用户同比增长5.6%至1.257亿，ARPPU从10.8元升至11.9元，同比增长10.2%。内容与平台的"一体两翼"策略仍在发 挥作用，国际唱片合作 ...

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 来源丨 表外表里（ID：excel-ers） 作者丨 陈梓洁 编辑丨 曹宾玲 狂挣 4000万 的 《跳楼机》，应运而生； 歌如其名的 《 八方来财 》， 火到了国外 ……一首首短 视频口水歌，成了音乐公司与在线平台的"印钞机"。 图源丨Midjourney 在武汉，几栋不起眼的红色矮楼静卧于汉江湾，国内知名 音乐公司海葵音乐 便是在那里 ，创造出 6 亿的年产值。 短短 5年 时 间， 海葵音乐就 从 29名员工 壮大为 500人 的 音乐集团， 投资的音乐工作室超 170 家 。 一千公里外的成都，另一位头部玩家阔景音乐，被视为 "凤头"引入音乐 文创园 。 今年前 8个月， 园内 规上企业营收 同比 增长 47.7% ， 是全国 音乐产业增长最快的区域之一。 这两家成功的音乐公司，股权架构里都有一个相同的名字 ——腾讯音乐（TME）。 通过层层投资， TME与大量音乐公司形成联盟，也是"财富共同体"。2025Q3，其营收 增长 20.6% 至 84.6亿元，调整后净利润飙升 27 % ， 实现连续 8个季度的双位数高增长。 而 ...

Core Insights - The music industry is undergoing a transformation driven by the rise of short videos and the commercialization of music, leading to a reshaping of market dynamics and the emergence of new players [2][3][5] - Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) plays a pivotal role in this transformation, forming alliances with numerous music companies and achieving significant revenue growth [2][8] - The proliferation of online music platforms has resulted in a shift from traditional record companies, which are now facing challenges in adapting to the new market landscape [3][10] Group 1 - Haiku Music, based in Wuhan, has achieved an annual output value of 600 million yuan and expanded from 29 to 500 employees in just five years [1][2] - The Chengdu-based Kuaijing Music has seen a 47.7% year-on-year revenue growth in its music cultural park, making it one of the fastest-growing regions in the music industry [2] - TME reported a 20.6% revenue increase to 8.46 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a 27% rise in adjusted net profit, marking eight consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [2][8] Group 2 - The rise of short videos has created a new revenue stream for music companies, with viral songs generating significant profits [5][10] - Independent musicians are increasingly targeting short video platforms for song promotion, leading to a rapid assessment of a song's potential success [5][6] - The music industry is experiencing a surge in the number of songs produced, with over 10,000 new songs added daily to platforms, resulting in a threefold increase in the music library over five years [16][18] Group 3 - Despite the increase in content supply, listener engagement is declining, with older songs still dominating play counts [18][20] - The average revenue per thousand plays on domestic platforms is around 1 yuan, significantly lower than the 20-50 yuan range on international platforms [21] - The industry is facing a cycle of homogenization and low quality, as music companies reduce costs and independent musicians struggle to earn a living [15][23] Group 4 - The industry consensus is shifting towards creating "catchy" songs to gain visibility, even at the cost of artistic integrity [24][27] - Many musicians are adopting a dual approach of seeking financial stability while pursuing their artistic passions [27][28] - The music industry is gradually recognizing the need for better support systems for independent musicians, including training for music agents and improved industry practices [30][32]

Core Insights - The emergence of Qishui Music as a significant player in the music streaming industry is reshaping the competitive landscape, prompting established giants like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music to reassess their market positions [1][2][9] User Growth and Market Dynamics - Qishui Music has rapidly grown to 120 million active users by September 2025, positioning itself as the fourth largest player in the industry, following Tencent Music, QQ Music, and NetEase Cloud Music [1][4] - Tencent Music's stock fell by 11% following its Q3 2025 earnings report, despite reporting a total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1][8] - The user overlap between Qishui Music and traditional platforms like QQ Music and NetEase Cloud Music is only 2%-3%, indicating that Qishui Music is attracting new users rather than merely redistributing existing ones [9][10] Business Model and Revenue Streams - Qishui Music employs a "free + subscription" model, significantly lowering the barriers to entry for users, which contrasts with the traditional subscription-based revenue model of Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music [11][13] - Tencent Music's subscription revenue accounted for 53.2% of its total revenue in Q3 2025, while Qishui Music's approach focuses on user engagement through low-cost membership options and promotional offers [11][13] Competitive Strategies - Qishui Music leverages its integration with Douyin (TikTok) to enhance user engagement and retention, with 38% of its users also active on Douyin [4][6] - The platform's algorithm-driven recommendations and short video experiences have proven effective in attracting users, leading to a 90.7% year-on-year increase in active users as of September [6][8] Industry Implications - The loosening of exclusive music copyright agreements has allowed Qishui Music to enter the market more effectively, capitalizing on the shift towards shared rights among platforms [2][3] - The competitive pressure from Qishui Music is forcing Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music to innovate and adapt their business models to retain users and market share [17]

Core Insights - The traditional business model of music streaming platforms, which relies on a vast library of copyrighted content and subscription fees, is facing structural collapse due to the rise of AI-generated music [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of AI on Copyright - The scarcity of music copyrights, which has allowed platforms like TME and NetEase Cloud to charge subscription fees, is being undermined by AI music, which can produce industry-level content without the need for traditional music production processes [5][6]. - AI-generated music does not depend on record labels or copyright institutions, leading to a situation where the value of music copyrights diminishes, threatening the core business model of platforms like TME and Spotify [9][10]. Group 2: User Behavior Shift - The transition from "listening" to "generating" music means that TME is now competing not only with similar platforms but also with tech companies that excel in disruptive innovation and have access to larger user bases [10][12]. - TME's recent performance shows a decline in active users and a slowdown in the growth of paying subscribers, indicating a shift in user behavior towards AI-generated music [10][11]. - The traditional music consumption path is being replaced by a new model where users can generate music based on their emotions or preferences, which could lead to a decline in the need for subscription-based streaming services [16][19]. Group 3: Future of the Music Industry - The future music industry is likely to be dominated by models and algorithms that can provide unlimited personalized content, marginalizing platforms that cling to outdated business models [22]. - The emergence of AI music signifies the end of an era dominated by copyright scarcity, suggesting a fundamental shift in the music industry's structure [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is responding to competitive pressure from ByteDance's "Soda Music" by expanding its premium membership offerings and enhancing its offline concert business to create new growth engines [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Response - Citi's report highlights that the market's sell-off of TME shares is an overreaction to competitive concerns, presenting a buying opportunity [3][4]. - TME's strategy focuses on a multi-tiered membership system designed to enhance user value and retention rather than engaging in a price war [4][5]. Group 2: Membership and Revenue Growth - The multi-tiered membership service, including SVIP memberships, is expected to drive growth in paying users and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) through high-quality music content and exclusive concert privileges [5][6]. - TME aims to provide more exclusive benefits and products based on fan economy, which will help boost SVIP subscriptions [7]. Group 3: Offline Concert Strategy - TME is heavily investing in large-scale tours and proprietary IP events, which not only generate new revenue streams but also deepen collaborations with artists, creating an online-offline ecosystem [6][8]. - The concert business enhances user experience and fosters stronger relationships within the music ecosystem [7]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - TME's management expresses confidence in its core advantages, including a rich music content library, extensive user asset management experience, and high penetration across multiple platforms [9]. - The synergy with Tencent's gaming and video IPs provides a unique competitive edge that is difficult for rivals to replicate [9]. Group 5: Financial Outlook - TME's projected financial performance shows a net profit increase from RMB 6,223 million in 2023 to RMB 12,490 million by 2027, with a diluted EPS growth from RMB 3.925 to an estimated RMB 7.999 [10]. - Despite potential short-term impacts on gross margins from the concert business, the long-term strategic investments in fan economy and ecosystem are expected to drive sustainable growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is expanding its premium membership and enhancing offline concert business to build new growth engines in response to competition from ByteDance's "Soda Music" [1][4] Group 1: Strategic Response to Competition - Citi's report highlights that despite TME's Q3 performance exceeding expectations, market concerns over competition have pressured its stock price, leading investors to adopt a risk-averse stance [1][3] - The report argues that the sell-off is "unfounded" and presents a great buying opportunity for investors [3] Group 2: Dual-Driven Growth Strategy - TME's strategy is not merely a price war but involves a well-designed multi-tier membership system aimed at enhancing user value and stickiness, catering to different user groups from free to premium memberships [4] - The multi-tier membership service and SVIP membership are expected to drive growth in paying users and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) through high-quality music content, exclusive concert privileges, and optimized audio quality [4] Group 3: Offline Concerts as a Strategic Focus - TME is heavily investing in large-scale tours and proprietary IP events, which not only create new revenue streams but also deepen collaborations with artists and provide exclusive benefits for paying members, forming an online-offline ecosystem [5] - The concert business helps establish experiences and fosters deeper relationships within the ecosystem, promoting SVIP subscription growth through fan economy-based products [5] Group 4: Core Competitive Advantages - TME's management expresses confidence in its core advantages, including a rich music content library, extensive user asset management experience, and high penetration across multiple platforms [6] - The synergy with Tencent's gaming and video IPs is a unique advantage that competitors find hard to replicate, creating a solid competitive moat [6] Group 5: Financial Projections - TME's projected net profit and diluted EPS show a growth trajectory, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 6.223 billion in 2023 to RMB 12.490 billion by 2027, and diluted EPS increasing from RMB 3.925 to RMB 7.999 over the same period [7] - Citi reaffirms a "buy" rating for TME, indicating that the company is transitioning towards a more robust social music ecosystem, with strategic investments in fan economy and ecosystem expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [7]