全球音乐产业深度汇报 Spotify，Live Nation，腾讯音 乐及网易云音乐 20250703 摘要 在线音乐平台用户粘性高于长视频平台，通过扶持独立音乐和版权优势 保持 MAU 稳健，产品生命周期更长，社区建设侧重 UGC 和粉丝互动， 增强用户粘性。 独家版权终结后，腾讯音娱和网易云音娱深入内容制作，成立工作室孵 化自有内容，签约新人，巩固市场地位，降低版权成本，成本控制方面 优于长视频平台。 短视频对长视频平台有分流效应，但对音乐平台是推广渠道，通过短视 频平台进行流量扶持和二次创作，提升用户粘性，网易云音乐通过短视 频平台投放内容。 国内音乐付费率远低于欧美，但有望逐步贴近拉美水平，提升空间巨大。 腾讯音乐通过取消低价会员包和加大对高价会员流量支持，提升 ARPU。 网易云音乐在独立内容资源上具有优势，通过内部工作室和外部签约降 低分账比例，提高毛利率，成长性优于腾讯音乐，估值较高但可通过持 续变现消化。 Q&A 港股上市的腾讯音乐、网易音乐和大麦娱乐在过去一段时间内表现如何？ 最近一段时间，港股上市的腾讯音乐、网易音乐和大麦娱乐表现较好。这些公 司在业务层面逐步放量，支撑了其中长期增长逻辑。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the cultural and tourism industry in Rizhao, driven by the integration of performing arts and high-end vacation offerings, leading to a significant increase in both visitor numbers and revenue [2][6]. Group 1: Tourism Market Performance - In the 2025 "May Day" holiday, 18 key monitored A-level tourist attractions in Rizhao received 2.7444 million visitors, generating revenue of 52.6205 million yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 13.5% and 13.66% respectively, surpassing the provincial average by over 5 percentage points [2]. - The "golden scissors difference" indicates a shift from "traffic expansion" to "value enhancement," with consumption upgrades becoming the core driver of high-quality development in the cultural tourism sector [2]. Group 2: Performing Arts Economy - The "Soda Music Chill Party" held in June 2025 attracted 21,000 attendees and achieved over 2 billion online exposures, setting a record for the event and receiving widespread acclaim on social media platforms [3]. - The event's success was attributed to a star-studded lineup and a well-coordinated service system, including efficient transportation and thoughtful amenities for attendees [3][4]. - The event generated approximately 36 million yuan in direct consumption, with visitor numbers increasing by 44.04% and spending rising by 41.44% during the event period [4]. Group 3: High-End Vacation Development - The Rizhao Kaiyuan Senbo Resort, launched in April 2025, achieved sales of 2.06 million yuan within one minute of pre-sale, with total pre-sale GMV exceeding 130 million yuan and over 130,000 room nights booked [6][7]. - The resort's unique location near the beach and its all-season operational strategy, including a 20,800 square meter indoor water park, positions it as a leading destination for high-end tourism in northern China [7]. - The resort is expected to attract 330,000 visitors annually and significantly boost local consumption by 500 million yuan through partnerships with nearby attractions [8]. Group 4: Future Development and Market Trends - Rizhao is constructing a high-end supply system with 32 key cultural tourism projects, including immersive performances and themed parks, to enhance its tourism offerings [8]. - The market feedback indicates a 110% year-on-year increase in accommodation and dining group purchases on Douyin during the holiday, with overnight visitors rising by 14.78% [8]. - The demographic shift towards younger tourists, with the "Z generation" making up 50.46% of visitors, reflects a trend towards more dynamic and personalized travel experiences [5].

2025年06月18日 证券研究报告 | 在线音乐行业深度解析 复杂投资环境下的优质长期现金流资产 行业研究 · 海外市场专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张伦可 证券分析师：陈淑媛 0755-81982651 021-60375431 zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn S0980521120004 S0980524030003 2 ü Spotify股价：23年为公司利润释放拐点，验证商业模式的长期可持续性，推动估值抬升。19-22年是Spotify "投资年" ，播客业 务等的投资导致亏损加大，23年开始更加关注降本增效以实现经营杠杆，24年公司首次实现全年盈利。Spotify后续驱动：1）全球 化发展，月活用户数仍有较大提升空间。2）随着音乐平台内容不断完善，平台议价能力增加，版权等成本有优化。当前Spotify VIP提价顺利，ARRPU值持续增长。25年开始公司继续发展超级VIP。 ü 腾讯音乐股价：订阅业务发展是主要驱动。21年以来，国内独家版权取消以及短视频行业发展倒逼音乐平台聚焦音乐主业。20 ...

喜马拉雅创始人余建军哭了，却并不是喜极而泣。 近日，腾讯音乐娱乐集团（TME）正式宣布将以总价约205亿人民币（12.6亿美元现金加不超过5.1986%的腾讯音乐股 票）全资收购喜马拉雅。 老大难当，喜马拉雅"规模不经济" 投资人想要的无非两个字：变现，而这正是喜马拉雅多年来最头疼的问题。 消息宣布的第二天，喜马拉雅在内部举行了一场关于收购的沟通会，余建军泪洒现场。 根据过往招股书显示，余建军通过其控股公司 Xima Holdings Limited 持有喜马拉雅 10.61% 的股份，折算下来，此次 收购完成后，余建军将套现超过20亿人民币。 套现20个小目标却伤心落泪，这看似凡尔赛的背后，或许是余建军作为喜马拉雅创始人的不甘心。 公开数据显示，早在2023年，喜马拉雅就已经坐上了行业老大的位置，平均月活用户达到3.03亿，以同期在线音频收 入计，占据25%的市场份额。 另外，根据每日经济新闻报道，喜马拉雅已经连续9个月实现盈利。 天眼查APP显示，喜马拉雅控股成立于2012年。十几年过去，喜马拉雅做到了行业第一，也实现了持续盈利，却在这 时候以"卖身"收场，余建军不甘心也可以理解。 但是，资本不相信眼泪， ...

音频市场正经历一场静水深流的演进。 6月10日晚间，腾讯音乐娱乐集团（简称"腾讯音乐"）发布公告称，与喜马拉雅控股（简称"喜马拉雅"）签订并购协议及计划。 根据协议，腾讯音乐拟通过12.6亿美元现金，外加不超过总股数5.1986%的A类普通股（总股数基于交易交割前五个工作日的已发行及发行在外普通股计 算）收购喜马拉雅，以及喜马拉雅创始股东可获得总数不超过总股数0.37%的A类普通股激励。 公告一出，对"长音频"生意的探讨甚嚣尘上，质疑内容产业兑现不了资本的想象。从音频行业发展历程来看，喜马拉雅做出的选择实则是对"声音价值"的 重新锚定。 长音频赛道竞争激烈且多元发展，早期通过喜马拉雅、蜻蜓FM、荔枝FM为代表的在线音频平台，为市场完成了早期的消费者培养和教育，建立起市场 对"长音频"的初步认知。随后互联网巨头腾讯、字节凭借流量入场，还诞生了专注营造社会氛围，构筑社区黏性的小宇宙APP，这些竞争对手改变了国内 音频的原有格局。 不过，喜马拉雅由于成立时间较久且内容品类涵盖面广，受到用户的喜爱。喜马拉雅继2022年第四季度实现首次盈利后，2023年经调整净利润达2.24亿 元，2024年净利润突破5亿元，现已连续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) has finalized an acquisition agreement to purchase 100% of Ximalaya for a total consideration of approximately $2.841 billion, which includes $1.26 billion in cash and stock options [1][6][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - TME will pay $1.26 billion in cash and issue up to 5.1986% of its Class A ordinary shares, along with an additional 0.37% for Ximalaya's founding shareholders [1][6]. - The total consideration for the acquisition is approximately $2.841 billion, equivalent to around 204 billion RMB [1][6]. - Following the announcement, TME's stock rose by 8% in pre-market trading, while Ximalaya's competitor, Lizhi FM, saw a decline of over 10% [1]. Group 2: Ximalaya's Background - Ximalaya has faced challenges in its IPO attempts, having failed four times despite a strong initial market position and significant funding [5][6]. - The company has accumulated losses totaling 3.166 billion RMB from 2018 to 2022, raising concerns about its profitability [5][6]. - Ximalaya's revenue growth has stagnated, with a drop in growth rate from 43.7% in 2021 to just 1.7% in 2023 [6][8]. Group 3: Market Context - The online audio market in China has seen rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 69.5% from 2016 to 2020, reaching a market size of 27.24 billion RMB [3][5]. - The rise of short video platforms poses a significant challenge to audio platforms like Ximalaya, as they compete for user attention and market share [7][9]. - TME's acquisition of Ximalaya is seen as a strategic move to enhance its content offerings and counter competition from ByteDance's free audio services [7][9].

喜马拉雅卖身传闻，终于迎来实质性进展。6月10日，腾讯音乐娱乐集团（下称腾讯音乐）发布公告， 宣布与喜马拉雅签署并购协议，计划以12.6亿美元现金，加上不超过总股数5.1986%的A类普通股，以 及喜马拉雅创始股东在交易交割时及之后将分批获得的总数不超过总股数0.37%的腾讯音乐A类普通 股，全资收购喜马拉雅。消息发出后，腾讯音乐美股盘前大涨8%。 若以腾讯音乐当前约284亿美元的估值推算，喜马拉雅所获腾讯音乐股权价值约为15.82亿美元，加上 12.6亿美元现金，总交易成本约为28.4亿美元。 最后一次冲击上市发生在2024年4月，市场反馈依然不温不火，喜马拉雅最后的这条融资路，股东们的 退出路，彻底被堵上了。 很少有公司的上市之路像喜马拉雅这么坎坷。面对持续的亏损和上市困境，成立十年后，喜马拉雅开始 努力求生。据晚点报道，每日优鲜的倒塌给了喜马拉雅管理层很大触动，他们认为不能真正走向盈利的 公司非常危险。2022年8月，喜马拉雅CEO 余建军第一次对公司全体员工明确具体盈利计划。 喜马拉雅最终在2023年实现了扭亏为盈，但主要靠降本而非营收上涨。从2022年第一季度起，喜马拉雅 陆续有员工收到裁员通知，2 ...

Group 1 - Tencent Music Entertainment Group announced the acquisition of Himalaya for $1.26 billion (approximately RMB 9.06 billion) in cash and stock, marking a significant move in the long audio sector [1] - Himalaya has 303 million monthly active users, accounting for 25% of China's online audio market, making it a crucial addition to Tencent Music's user base [3] - The acquisition aims to enhance Tencent Music's ecosystem by integrating music, audiobooks, and podcasts, thereby strengthening its competitive position against ByteDance's audio offerings [3][8] Group 2 - The online audio industry in China has been experiencing rapid growth, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music holding nearly 90% of the market share [2] - The user engagement in music apps is facing challenges, with a decline in average daily usage time, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards video content [4][8] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move for Himalaya, which has struggled with multiple failed IPO attempts, providing it with a stable investment partner in Tencent Music [3][8]

Group 1 - Pang Donglai estimates a net profit of approximately 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, with over 8,000 employees earning an average after-tax monthly income of 9,000 yuan [1] - As of June 9, 2025, Pang Donglai Group's total sales have exceeded 10.6 billion yuan [1] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise above 3,400 points, with significant gains in rare earth and automotive parts sectors [1] Group 2 - Tencent Music announced the acquisition of Ximalaya for approximately $12.6 billion in cash and stock, totaling around $27-28 billion [2] - Ximalaya's decision to sell follows multiple unsuccessful attempts to go public, indicating a search for stability [2] - The audio streaming industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with ByteDance aggressively expanding its market presence [2] Group 3 - 52TOYS has submitted its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to capitalize on the popularity of collectible toys [3] - The company has secured new financing from various institutions, positioning itself among the top three IP toy companies in China by GMV [3] - The success of Pop Mart, driven by its LABUBU IP, sets a high benchmark for 52TOYS in the collectible toy market [3] Group 4 - The AI wave is rapidly reshaping the business landscape, with significant reductions in computing costs and an explosion of application scenarios [4] - Investors are keenly observing industry trends to identify potential opportunities in AI applications and hardware integration [4] - The focus for investment in the latter half of 2025 is expected to be on AI applications and their combination with hardware [4]

腾讯音乐收购喜马拉雅终于尘埃落定，腾讯音乐将以12.6亿美元现金加腾讯音乐约5.2%股权的方式收购喜马拉雅，交易总价折合接近27~28亿美元 （按现在腾讯音乐股价来算约合人民币200亿元）。 值得一提的是，腾讯早在此之前即是喜马拉雅的股东，持股比例约5.33%，为其第三大机构股东。 喜马拉雅自成立十余年来经历了12轮融资，累计募资近百亿元人民币，背后不乏各路明星投资方。多次尝试IPO未果后选择卖给腾讯，某种程度上 也是寻求一个稳定出路。 那么，腾讯音乐又在想什么？ 向前看，Spotify通过大举投资播客内容，证明了音频平台不能只做音乐流媒体，必须向长音频拓展才能支撑更高的估值和用户时长。 向左看，老牌对手网易云音乐凭借独特的社区文化和音乐品味始终占据一批死忠用户，让腾讯音乐无法完全独霸市场。 向右看，字节跳动这个"野蛮人"正在用免费模式颠覆整个行业——汽水音乐两年拿下6000万月活，番茄畅听直逼喜马拉雅。 看起来音频战役结束了，实际上，音频战役才刚刚开始。 交易的背后 当前这笔收购作价相较喜马拉雅历史高点已大幅折价。 喜马拉雅在2021年市场狂热时期估值曾达约300亿元人民币（约合40多亿美元）。以此次27~ ...