摘要 解密南下：谁在买，还有多少空间；从 Spotify 看 TME、网易云音乐的成长空间 20250826 腾讯音乐娱乐集团（TME）在 2025 年第二季度业绩全面超预期。收入同比增 长 18%，毛利率和经营利润率均有所提升，经调整净利润同比增加 37%。在 2025 年上半年南下资金净流入达 6,800 亿元，预计三季度超万亿，全 年或超 1.2 万亿元，机构投资者占比提升，公募和险资为主要增量来源， 预计险资全年南下规模超 3,000 亿元，公募增量达 2,000~3,000 亿元。 腾讯音乐娱乐集团（TME）2025 年 Q2 业绩超预期，收入同比增长 18%，经调整净利润同比增 37%，付费用户达 1.24 亿，ARPU 达 11.7 元，SVIP 用户超 1,550 万，广告和演唱会周边业务显著增长，预计全 年经调整净利润 96 亿元左右。 网易云音乐 2025 年 Q2 收入同比下滑 6%，主要受直播业务拖累，但社 交娱乐业务企稳，毛利率和研发费用率提升，降本增效显著，经调整净 利润超预期，估值水位与 TME 相当，对应今年新调整净利润约 30 倍 PE。 机构投资者主导南向资金，增强港股市场 ...

Core Insights - The interview with Spotify's CTO Gustav Söderström highlights the transformative impact of AI on business models and product development, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to technological changes or risk obsolescence [4][10][41] - Spotify's recent financial performance shows a 10% revenue growth to €4.19 billion in Q2 2025, with significant increases in both active users and subscribers, indicating strong market positioning compared to Tencent Music [4][5] Financial Performance - Spotify reported Q2 2025 revenue of €4.19 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year [4] - Monthly active users reached 696 million, while subscription users grew to 278 million [4] - Tencent Music's Q2 2025 revenue was ¥8.44 billion, a 17.9% increase, with 124.4 million online music paying users [4][5] Market Comparison - Spotify's market capitalization is approximately $141.9 billion with a TTM P/E ratio of 154, while Tencent Music's market cap is around $38.7 billion with a TTM P/E ratio of 27 [5] - The differences in business models reflect regional strategies, with Spotify focusing on subscription revenue and Tencent Music emphasizing social and entertainment aspects unique to the Chinese market [5] AI and Product Development - Söderström discusses the necessity for companies to embrace AI, likening the current shift to previous technological revolutions such as the smartphone and internet [10][41] - The transition to generative AI represents a significant change in user interaction, allowing for more nuanced and natural language inputs, which could reshape consumer products [12][13] - Spotify's implementation of AI-driven playlists allows users to create custom playlists using natural language, enhancing user engagement and personalization [16][17] Organizational Structure and Decision-Making - Spotify employs a structured decision-making process through a "Bets Board" system, where VP-level executives pitch their ideas for resource allocation every six months [25][31] - The company emphasizes a culture of open discussion and structured debate to foster innovation and strategic alignment [23][24] - Weekly meetings of the execution team ensure that issues are addressed in real-time, promoting efficiency and collaboration across departments [28][29] Strategic Frameworks - Söderström incorporates strategic frameworks such as Hamilton Helmer's "Seven Powers" and Felix Oberholzer-Gee's "Better, Simpler Strategy" to guide decision-making and enhance organizational effectiveness [22][20] - The focus on maintaining a high perceived value for users compared to the actual price is central to Spotify's strategy, ensuring consumer surplus [22][25] Future Outlook - The potential for AI to necessitate changes in Spotify's business model remains uncertain, with Söderström noting that AI introduces high marginal costs that may require new monetization strategies [44][41] - The company is positioned to leverage its existing user base and data to explore innovative applications of AI, which could redefine its service offerings in the future [39][40]

作者| 赤木瓶子 编辑| 李寻欢 在线音乐的下半场正深入情绪经济的"新战场"。 腾讯音乐这边，在线音乐业务几乎没有悬念的再"上分"。腾讯音乐2025年第二季度总收入为84.4亿元，同比增长17.9%，调整后净利润为26.4亿 元，同比增长33.0%。其中，在线音乐服务收入同比增长26.4%至68.5亿元。 网易云音乐的业绩公告也给出了一组反差数字：网易云音乐2025年上半年营收为38.27亿元，同比下降6%，期内利润却达到18.82亿元，同比飙 涨132.4%，经调整净利润为19.46亿元，同比去年的8.81亿增长121.0%。哪怕整体收入略缩水，"情绪消费"反而更赚钱了。 有趣的是，在以腾讯音乐为主的音乐平台守好基本盘的同时，流媒体的玩法又下一城，这届用户不只要听歌、沉浸，还要与爱豆深度交互。与 之相对，在线音乐平台正形成以在线音乐服务为主，以围绕核心业务的用户娱乐体验为辅的基础打法。 尽管在线音乐躲不开持续伴随的营收压力，但在内容和订阅收入的双重驱动下，平台的盈利模式和业务拓展方向正在不断变化，但在2025年， 这一趋势指向了三个关键词：K-POP、演出、粉丝运营。当情绪经济成为增收核心动力，究竟是"电子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The music streaming industry, once considered a "bad business," is experiencing significant growth, with platforms like Spotify, Tencent Music (TME), and NetEase Cloud Music seeing increases in subscription users and revenue [4][5]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - TME's paid user count surpassed 124.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while NetEase Cloud's subscription revenue grew by 15.2% primarily due to an increase in membership subscriptions [4]. - TME's latest quarterly revenue rose by 17.9%, with net profit increasing by 33% to 2.64 billion yuan, and NetEase Cloud's operating profit for the first half of the year reached 909 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% [5]. - The shift from a copyright battle to a cooperative model among platforms has allowed for shared resources and reduced competition costs, leading to a more sustainable business model [12][18]. Group 2: Market Trends - The global capital market is witnessing a re-evaluation of music streaming, with TME's stock price increasing nearly ninefold and Spotify's stock price rising to ten times its bottom [7]. - The transition from fierce competition for exclusive rights to a more collaborative approach has resulted in a unified pricing strategy across platforms, enhancing user conversion to paid subscriptions [19][22]. Group 3: User Monetization Strategies - Platforms are implementing strategies to maximize user monetization, such as reducing the number of free songs available and increasing ad placements for non-paying users [28]. - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) for TME increased by 9.3% year-on-year to 11.7 yuan, indicating improved monetization efficiency [30]. - Platforms are also differentiating their offerings to encourage users to upgrade to higher-paying tiers, with exclusive content and experiences for premium members [28]. Group 4: Evolution of Star-Making - The traditional music industry model of talent discovery is shifting towards music platforms, which now play a crucial role in identifying and promoting new artists [40][41]. - The share of songs from independent musicians and self-owned companies in the top charts has been increasing, indicating a shift in power dynamics within the industry [46]. - Music platforms are now able to offer better revenue-sharing models for artists, allowing them to retain a larger portion of their earnings compared to traditional record labels [47]. Group 5: Future Challenges - Despite the positive trends, the music streaming industry faces challenges such as users seeking cheaper alternatives and the emergence of new video content platforms that may divert attention from traditional music services [56].

一个多月前，腾讯音乐美股市值涨至300多亿美元，跻身中国互联网上市公司市值Top 10，把百度、微博、B站、贝壳等甩在身后。8月12日，腾讯音乐超 出市场预期的财报一出，又进一步拉开了差距。 | | | | 中国互联网公司市值TOP10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (单位:亿美元,6月30日收盘数据) | | | | 排名 | 公司 | | 市值 | | 名次变化 | | 1 | 腾讯 | | | 2885 | 不变 | | 2 | 阿里 | | 2705 | | 不变 | | 3 | 小米 | | 1987 | | 12 | | 4 | 拼多多 | 1486 | | | 11 | | 5 | 美团 | 975 | | | ↓1 | | 6 | 网易 | 852 | | | 不变 | | 7 | 京东 | 471 | | | 不变 | | 8 | 携程 | 383 | | | 不变 | | 9 | 快手 | 345 | | | 11 | | 10 | 腾讯音乐 | 302 | | | 新进 | "大厂的一根指头，比同行的腰还粗"，在腾 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has shown strong performance in its Q2 2025 financial report, with online music subscriptions being the main driver of growth, despite a decline in monthly active users (MAU) over the past three years [2][3]. Group 1: Online Music Revenue - TME's total revenue for Q2 reached 8.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with adjusted net profit at 2.64 billion RMB, up 33.0% [2]. - Online music service revenue grew to 6.85 billion RMB, a 26.4% increase from 5.42 billion RMB in the same period last year, driven by strong growth in subscription revenue and increased income from advertising and live performances [5]. - Online music subscription revenue was 4.38 billion RMB (611 million USD), up 17.1% from 3.74 billion RMB year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in average revenue per paying user [5][9]. - The number of SVIP subscribers has surpassed 15 million, marking a historical high, attributed to the introduction of a higher-tier membership option [8]. Group 2: Social Entertainment Decline - Revenue from social entertainment services decreased by 8.5% year-on-year to 1.59 billion RMB, with operating costs rising by 13.1% to 4.69 billion RMB [10]. - The decline in social entertainment revenue is linked to increased costs associated with IP, artist-related expenses, and advertising fees, while revenue-sharing costs have decreased due to the drop in income [10][12]. - The competitive landscape in music streaming is heavily influenced by copyright ownership, with TME controlling approximately 95% of the industry’s copyright resources through its various platforms [12]. Group 3: Future Potential - Analysts suggest that TME's current 20% subscription rate has significant room for growth compared to Spotify's over 40% [14]. - The company is expanding its content offerings and community engagement through initiatives like the "Bubble" product, which allows direct interaction between fans and artists [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music is expanding in the pan-music field, with a successful increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [1][4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the subscription business, driven by the growth of ARPPU and an increase in paid user penetration [6][28] - Tencent Music's acquisition of the long audio leader, Ximalaya, is anticipated to enhance synergies between long audio and music, similar to the model of Spotify [6][29] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent Music achieved total revenue of 8.44 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.8% [11][20] - The online music revenue accounted for 81% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 44.4%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [11][20] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 2.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [11][20] Subscription Business - In Q2 2025, subscription revenue reached 4.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [4][20] - The number of online music paying users was 124 million, with a payment rate of 22.5%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [4][26] - The monthly ARPPU was 11.7 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [4][26] Other Online Music Revenue - Other online music business revenue, including advertising and digital albums, grew by 46.9% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan [5][20] - The company has seen strong growth in artist-related activities and live performances, including managing large international tours [5][20] Strategic Developments - Tencent Music is actively expanding overseas, including a stake in South Korean SM Entertainment and launching the "Bubble" product for high-end fan services [8][29] - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to leverage its leading market position and expand its pan-music offerings [6][29] Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for Tencent Music is set at $27.10 to $28.90, reflecting an increase of 66-71% [1][29] - The report uses comparable companies for valuation, indicating a strong growth potential in the pan-entertainment sector [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation and effectiveness of minor protection modes in various popular apps, highlighting the balance between protection and meeting the needs of minors in the digital space [1][4][41]. Group 1: Implementation of Minor Protection Modes - Since the trial launch of the youth anti-addiction system in 2019, the protection of minors online has gradually been incorporated into platform regulations and national supervision [1]. - In 2024, the "Guidelines for the Construction of Minor Modes in Mobile Internet" were released, introducing age-based recommendation standards, prompting major apps to launch dedicated modes for minors [2][41]. - A total of 24 popular apps across seven categories (social, gaming, short video, etc.) have implemented minor modes, but the effectiveness of these modes is questioned [13][41]. Group 2: Challenges and Issues - Despite the establishment of minor modes, issues such as lack of age-appropriate content and insufficient resources have been reported [3][41]. - The entry points for accessing minor modes in apps are often deeply nested, making it difficult for users to find and activate them easily [14][41]. - In gaming apps, only one app allows switching to minor mode from within the game, while others require parental intervention through third-party platforms, complicating the monitoring process [17][41]. Group 3: Content Supply and Age Appropriateness - Among the 24 apps tested, only 58% have age-based features that allow parents to set content according to their child's age [23][41]. - The content provided in minor modes often lacks diversity and fails to meet the developmental needs of different age groups, with some apps repeating the same content across various age ranges [24][34][41]. - In music apps, the minor modes tend to restrict genres, focusing on educational content while neglecting the musical preferences of minors [39][41]. Group 4: Global Context and Legislative Measures - The issue of minors' internet usage is becoming a significant topic in global digital governance, with many countries implementing legislative measures to define platform obligations and parental responsibilities [5][7]. - Various countries have established age-based restrictions and parental consent requirements for minors using online services, with penalties for non-compliance [8][10][41]. - The EU's GDPR mandates that platforms obtain parental consent for processing data of minors under 16, while Australia has enacted strict measures prohibiting minors under 16 from using most social media platforms [9][10][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (1698.HK) [1][12][13] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music's revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations, driven by an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) and subscription income [5][6][12] - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and profitability, supported by a healthy revenue structure and an increase in paying users [12][13] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 8.44 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.7% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 43.4% [5][6] - The gross profit margin improved to 44.4%, up 2.4 percentage points year-over-year, due to growth in online music revenue and a decrease in revenue sharing from social entertainment services [6][12] User Metrics and Revenue Streams - Online music service revenue reached 6.85 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 26.4% [7] - The number of paying users increased to 124 million, a year-over-year growth of 6%, with a paying rate of 22.5% [7] - Advertising and other revenue surged to 2.47 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 46.9%, driven by new advertising models and strong growth in artist-related events [7][12] Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music is enhancing its content ecosystem and interactive community to increase platform value, including hosting major international concerts and introducing interactive community features [8][9] - The company plans to acquire 100% of Ximalaya for $1.26 billion to expand into long audio content, aiming to create a comprehensive entertainment matrix [10][12] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 32.95 billion yuan, 37.48 billion yuan, and 41.06 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 10.98 billion yuan, 10.34 billion yuan, and 11.49 billion yuan [11][12] - The adjusted P/E ratios are forecasted to be 30, 24, and 22 for the respective years [12]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong is focusing on six key directions to transform its recently announced policy package into a catalyst for high-quality development in the online audio-visual industry, aiming to attract excellent projects to the region [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures and Industry Development - Guangdong has released several policy measures to enhance the online audio-visual industry, including increased financial support and the development of industrial parks [1][3]. - The province aims to establish Guangzhou as the "global live streaming capital" and Shenzhen as the "global digital audio-visual innovation capital" [1][3]. - The online audio-visual industry in Guangdong accounted for 1/7 of the national revenue last year, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 40% [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges such as the quality and creativity of content generated by AIGC technology, which often lacks depth and uniqueness [2]. - Ethical issues related to copyright and misinformation are also prevalent, alongside increased reliance on technology that poses risks like data breaches [2]. - Despite these challenges, the online audio-visual sector is seen as a new growth area within the digital economy, with a market size exceeding 1.22 trillion yuan and a user base of 1.091 billion [2]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - Major companies like iQIYI and Douyin are actively engaging in the Guangdong market, with iQIYI establishing four immersive theaters and Douyin promoting local products through various initiatives [6][5]. - The province is fostering collaboration among enterprises and enhancing the ecosystem for digital content creation, with a focus on integrating local cultural elements into programming [7][8]. - Guangdong is also working on building a collaborative mechanism for the Greater Bay Area to enhance content export and stimulate innovation among the youth [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - The province plans to strengthen content quality, explore new consumption models, and enhance the overall service system within the industry [7][8]. - There is a call for more targeted policies and funding to support the development of high-quality programs based on local cultural heritage [7]. - The government aims to deepen the integration of culture and technology, while also improving talent recruitment and training to support industry growth [8].