Core Viewpoint - The Dow Chemical Company ("TDCC") has announced a tender offer to purchase certain debt securities for an aggregate consideration of up to $1.0 billion, which includes securities from its subsidiaries Rohm and Haas and Union Carbide Corporation [1][10]. Group 1: Tender Offer Details - The tender offer is part of TDCC's strategy to manage its debt and is detailed in the Offer to Purchase dated February 25, 2025 [1][10]. - The early participation date for the tender offer was set for March 10, 2025, and the expected early settlement date is March 13, 2025 [5][6]. - Holders of validly tendered securities will receive total consideration in cash, which includes an early participation amount of $30 per series of securities [4][6]. Group 2: Securities Information - The tender offer includes various series of securities, with specific amounts and terms outlined, such as the 0.500% Notes Due 2027 and the 7.850% Debentures Due 2029, which have been accepted for purchase [3][9]. - The total consideration for each $1,000 or €1,000 principal amount of securities validly tendered includes accrued interest from the last payment date to the early settlement date [7][8]. - Due to the tender cap, not all tendered securities will be accepted; only specific amounts of certain securities will be purchased on a prorated basis [9]. Group 3: Financial Management - TDCC has retained Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. as joint lead dealer managers for the tender offer, indicating a structured approach to managing the transaction [11]. - The company aims to optimize its capital structure through this tender offer, reflecting a proactive stance in financial management [1][10]. Group 4: Company Background - Dow Inc. operates as a leading materials science company with a focus on high-growth markets, achieving approximately $43 billion in sales in 2024 [14]. - Rohm and Haas and Union Carbide Corporation are wholly owned subsidiaries of TDCC, contributing to its diversified portfolio in chemicals and polymers [15].

Core Insights - LyondellBasell Industries N.V. has introduced Pro-fax EP649U, a polypropylene impact copolymer aimed at the rigid packaging market, particularly for food packaging applications [1] - The new product features high-flowing properties, fast crystallization, and an additive package that enhances mold release and downstream handling [2] - Pro-fax EP649U is part of the CirculenRenew and CirculenRevive portfolios, emphasizing sustainable innovation with renewable or recycled content [4] Product Features - Pro-fax EP649U is designed for thin-walled injection molding, providing strength without compromising wall thickness, and offers lightweight and impact resistance [2] - The product includes nucleated anti-stat and organoleptic properties, preventing unwanted taste and odor transfer to packaged goods [3] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in North American domestic demand for polyolefins in 2024, following two years of decline, with expected seasonal demand gains in the first quarter [5] - Macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts, inflation moderation, and pent-up demand are expected to boost consumption of durable goods, positively impacting the company's polypropylene and Intermediates and Derivatives businesses [5] Stock Performance - LyondellBasell's stock has declined by 23.2% over the past year, compared to an 8.3% decline in the industry [4] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating a challenging market position [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated sales for Q4 2024 were $477 million, down from $513 million in the prior year, reflecting a 7% decrease [12][24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $55 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.6%, compared to $53.9 million and 10.5% in the prior year [12][15] - Full-year 2024 consolidated sales totaled $2.09 billion, a decrease of 3% from $2.15 billion in 2023 [14][24] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA was a record $261.6 million, with a margin of 12.5%, up from 11.9% in the prior year [15][16] - Diluted earnings per share for 2024 were $2.46, down from $4.14 in the prior year [16] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was $119.4 million, compared to $146.1 million in the prior year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Railroad Utility Products and Services (RUPT) sales were flat year-over-year at $216 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $18 million and an 8% margin [24][25] - Performance Chemicals (PC) sales decreased to $148 million from $164 million, with adjusted EBITDA remaining flat at $29 million [28][29] - Carbon Materials and Chemicals (CMC) sales were $114 million, down from $132 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing to $9 million from $4 million in the prior year [31][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - RUPT achieved record sales for the year, increasing by $45 million or 5%, while PC sales decreased by $20 million or 3% [24][25] - CMC sales decreased by $87 million or 15% compared to the prior year [24][25] - The average pricing of major products was down 13%, and average coal tar costs were down 18% [33][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on cost control and efficiency gains across all business segments in response to market share loss and economic uncertainty [49] - A virtual investor day is scheduled for September 18, 2025, to unveil the details of the 2030 strategic plan [17][71] - The company aims for a net leverage ratio of 2 to 3 times, with expectations to end 2025 at or below 3 times leverage [38][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment in falling short of financial expectations for Q4 and full year 2024, citing volume slowdowns and market share loss as key factors [8][9] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations of earnings improvement driven by top-line growth and cost containment measures [10][11] - Management remains cautiously optimistic about customer sentiment and market conditions, particularly in the North American market [46][47] Other Important Information - The company reported a 5% reduction in its global workforce, expected to result in over $10 million in savings for 2025 [10] - The board authorized a new $100 million stock repurchase program and increased the quarterly dividend to $0.08 per share [36][41] - The company was recognized by Newsweek as one of America's most responsible companies for the fifth consecutive year [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is your competitor strategy regarding market share loss in Performance Chemicals? - Management indicated that the market share loss was anticipated and attributed to competitors diversifying their supply chains and investing in capacity [78][80] Question: Are there immediate plans for investment in Utility and Industrial Products? - Management stated that previous investments are expected to provide growth opportunities, but no immediate capital needs are foreseen [84][88] Question: What is the expected impact of the Stickney plant closure on sales? - The closure is expected to result in a loss of approximately $30 million to $35 million in sales, but it will not impact creosote production [97][99] Question: How will free cash flow be allocated in 2025? - Management plans to allocate free cash flow towards share repurchases and debt paydown, aiming to reduce leverage significantly [107][110] Question: What improvements are expected in the RUPS segment regarding crosstie volumes? - Management projected an 8% increase in crosstie volumes for 2025, with expectations for higher pricing as well [111][112]

渤海期货研究院长，先后在恒力化工学院，LG化学集团等企业工作，十八年以上化工品现货贸易、期现套保与对冲经验，建立了估值+驱动力完整商品投研 体系，有丰富的大资金套利对冲经验。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 老魏一凡 来源 | 老魏一凡 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年大宗商品要开始交易宏观去库存的逻辑，这里指的是美国。 但是，中国库存周期还是低位，后期仍然有被动补库存的需求。 先说去库存对价格的影响，通常有两种方式： 需求好，就涨价去库存。 需求不好，就只能跌价去库存！ 老魏一凡 . 以下文章来源于老魏一凡 ，作者老魏一凡 上一个图： （数据来源：公开数据收集，如有侵权请联系删除） 看起来美国的库存水平好像不高，但是在当下全球的经济速度水平下，这已经是2024年以来的最高水平了。 也就是说，2025年依靠美国需求拉动全球经济，很有难度。 通常咱们说的宏观逻辑，背后的主要逻辑就是宏观库存周期变化，带来商品系统性风险！ 历史上交易宏观库存周期的逻辑比较多了，譬如： 2024年上半年大宗商品交易美国衰退的逻辑。 2023年上半年交易中国大宗商品去库存衰退的逻辑。 2022年上半年交易美国通胀 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, the company reported sales of $2.8 billion and EBITDA of $416 million, representing a 7% increase in EBITDA compared to Q4 2023's EBITDA of $390 million [17][24] - Full year 2024 net income was $677 million, with EBITDA totaling $2.3 billion, while total sales for 2024 declined by 3% to $12.1 billion due to a 10% decline in average sales prices [25][26] - The company achieved total cost reductions of $170 million in 2024, exceeding the target of $125 million to $150 million [16][32] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Housing and Infrastructure Products (HIP) segment achieved record income from operations of $807 million and an EBITDA margin of 24%, driven by an 8% sales volume growth [20][28] - The Performance and Essential Materials (PEM) segment saw a 1% increase in sales volume, primarily due to export market demand, although average sales prices were impacted by industry capacity increases [18][30] - HIP's EBITDA margin improved to 19% in Q4 2024, while PEM's EBITDA margin increased to 12% from 11% in the same period of 2023 [27][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America showed strong demand across both segments, supported by a broad product portfolio and a strong feedstock position [19] - The company expects housing starts for 2025 to remain similar to 2024 at 1.3 million [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on sustainability and has initiated several key projects, including a pilot program for post-consumer recycled PVC and investments in carbon waste transformation technology [36][37] - The company plans to continue optimizing its business to drive operational performance and reduce costs, with a target of $125 million to $150 million in cost reductions for 2025 [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential of the HIP segment, citing strong brand offerings and geographical reach [39][41] - The company acknowledges uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment but remains focused on actions within its control to improve business performance [41] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $325 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024 [21][32] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total debt of $4.6 billion [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on HIP margins and expected degradation - Management indicated that margin guidance reflects a product mix shift rather than a decline in overall demand [49] Question: Cost cuts distribution across divisions - Cost reduction efforts will be significant in both HIP and PEM segments, particularly in logistics and procurement [52] Question: Concerns about homebuilder outlook affecting volumes - Management remains confident in growth, expecting market penetration to increase despite broader economic concerns [59] Question: Impact of tariffs on PVC trade flows - Management is monitoring potential impacts of tariffs on trade patterns and will adapt as necessary [62] Question: Volume and price changes for the year - Year-over-year volume improvements were 6% for PEM and 8% for HIP, with price declines of 12% for PEM and 6% for HIP [81][84] Question: Free cash flow outlook for 2025 - Management expects stronger free cash flow generation in 2025 due to continued strength in the HIP business [90] Question: Recent demand experience in major product lines - Demand for polyethylene remains strong, with price initiatives reflecting good market conditions [118] Question: Expectations for EBITDA margins in 2025 - Management views the 20% to 22% EBITDA margin guidance as conservative, with potential for improvement if housing starts increase [132]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tronox generated revenue of $3.1 billion in 2024, an increase of 8% compared to the prior year, driven primarily by higher TiO2 and zircon sales volumes, partially offset by unfavorable price and product mix [10] - The company reported a net loss attributable to Tronox of $48 million for the full year, with adjusted EBITDA of $564 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.3% [10] - In Q4 2024, revenue was $676 million, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with a net loss of $30 million and adjusted EBITDA of $129 million, achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.1% [11][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - TiO2 revenues increased by 3% year-over-year in Q4, with sales volumes improving by 4%, but were partially offset by a 1% decline due to price and product mix [11] - Zircon revenues surged by 32% year-over-year in Q4, driven by a 43% increase in sales volumes, despite an 11% headwind from price and product mix [12] - Revenue from other products decreased by 38% year-over-year due to opportunistic sales that did not repeat in Q4 2024 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Stronger TiO2 commercial performance in Asia Pacific and Latin America helped mitigate lagging demand in Europe, while North America performed in line with expectations [6] - The company noted competitive dynamics affecting pricing across all products, with expectations for price recovery in the second half of 2025 [30][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Tronox is focusing on sustainability projects, including converting 40% of its power in South Africa to solar, which avoided $17 million in electricity costs in 2024 [8] - The company launched a new business strategy in the second half of 2024, emphasizing cost efficiency, optimizing asset reliability, and driving operational excellence [9] - Tronox identified $125 million to $175 million of additional cost improvement opportunities achievable by the end of 2026 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects 2025 revenue to range from $3 billion to $3.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA between $525 million and $625 million, considering market recovery and competitive dynamics [18] - The company anticipates a stronger second half of 2025, with pricing expected to improve as market conditions stabilize [19] - Management highlighted ongoing challenges with mining production costs, projecting a negative impact of $50 million to $60 million in 2025 due to transitioning to new mines [40][41] Other Important Information - Tronox's total debt stood at $2.9 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 4.8 times at year-end [15] - The company returned $80 million to shareholders in dividends during 2024 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the softer pricing in the first half of the year? - Management noted competitive activity in certain regions and a slow recovery period, with expectations for price increases in the second half of the year as market conditions improve [26][30] Question: How much of the cost improvement program relies on volumes versus efficiency? - The cost improvement program focuses primarily on cost efficiencies rather than volume increases, with expectations to achieve $25 million to $30 million of improvements in 2025 [31][32] Question: What is the expected impact of mining costs in 2025? - The majority of the $50 million to $60 million negative impact is expected in the first half of 2025, with recovery anticipated in 2026 as new mines come online [40][41] Question: How are raw material costs trending for 2025? - Raw material costs are expected to decline in the low single digits year-over-year, with specific increases in electricity and coal costs [84][85] Question: What is the outlook for TiO2 market share? - Management indicated that while some share has been lost to Chinese competitors, there are opportunities for recovery, particularly in regions benefiting from trade duties [68][69]