>> WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG MARKETS. IT'S BEEN A SOMEWHAT VOLATILE DAY. HE FOUND THE TECH HEAVY INDEX GETTING A BOOST TO THE TUNE OF HALF OF 1% AND THE NASDAQ ONE HUNDRED BUT THE S&P 500 NOT SEEING THE SAME KIND OF LOVE.TRYING TO BREAK INTO THE GREEN ALL DAY BUT NOT QUITE GETTING THERE. REACHING ANOTHER RECORD HIGH AT 6300. TECH WAS REALLY THE ONLY PART OF THE INDEX GETTING ANY LOVE TODAY.THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX IS RISING ABOUT 1.8%. A BIG SUMMIT GOING ON IN PENNSYLVANIA, LED BY SENATOR DAVID MCCOR ...

U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stocks traded mixed, with the Nasdaq gaining over 100 points, while the Dow decreased by 0.57% to 44,204.33 and the S&P 500 rose by 0.01% to 6,269.15 [1] - Information technology shares increased by 1.6%, while materials stocks dipped by 0.9% [1] Wells Fargo Financial Results - Wells Fargo reported adjusted earnings of $1.54 per share, exceeding market estimates of $1.40 per share [2] - The company reported net interest income of $11.71 billion, down 2% year over year for Q2 2025 [2] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell by 0.5% to $66.66, gold decreased by 0.1% to $3,355.90, silver dropped by 1.2% to $38.280, and copper fell by 0.3% to $5.5320 [5] European Market Performance - European shares were lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 slipping by 0.09% and Spain's IBEX 35 Index falling by 1.16% [6] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.55% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising by 1.60%, while China's Shanghai Composite fell by 0.42% [7] Notable Stock Movements - Longevity Health Holdings, Inc. shares surged by 143% to $6.43 after a merger announcement [9] - Kairos Pharma, Ltd. shares increased by 87% to $1.2808 following positive trial results [9] - BloomZ Inc. shares rose by 57% to $0.2366 due to a partnership announcement [9] - Ryvyl Inc. shares dropped by 45% to $0.3552 after announcing a $6 million offering [9] - Rani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. shares fell by 42% to $0.4058 after a direct offering announcement [9] - Simulations Plus, Inc. shares decreased by 19% to $14.15 following disappointing quarterly sales and a downgrade from Keybanc [9] Economic Indicator - The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to 5.5 in July, compared to -16.0 in June, surpassing market estimates of -9.0 [10]

Market Overview - The broader equity markets have shown a steady uptrend as investors remain optimistic despite tariff threats from President Trump on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea [1] - Investors are hopeful for a mutually beneficial solution to avoid market turmoil as they look forward to a busy earnings season [1][2] Trade Relations - Positive discussions between U.S.-China diplomats regarding trade tariffs and potential peace talks between U.S. officials and Iran have contributed to market stability [2] - Investors are awaiting clarity on interest rate cuts with inflation data expected to be released soon [2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on "cash cow" stocks that provide higher returns, emphasizing the importance of attractive efficiency ratios like return on equity (ROE) [3] - High ROE indicates effective reinvestment of cash at a high rate of return, distinguishing profitable companies from less efficient ones [4][5] Stock Screening Parameters - Stocks are screened based on criteria including cash flow greater than $1 billion and ROE exceeding industry averages [6] - Additional metrics include Price/Cash Flow lower than industry average and Return on Assets (ROA) greater than industry average [7] Featured Stocks - **Walt Disney**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 11.8% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.4% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [8][9] - **TE Connectivity**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 9.8% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.3% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [10][11] - **Fortinet**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 13.4% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 23.8% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [12][13] - **Banco Bilbao**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 5.5% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.3% on average, Zacks Rank 1 [13][14] - **Colgate-Palmolive**: Long-term earnings growth expectation of 5.2% with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4% on average, Zacks Rank 2 [14][15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in household deposits and loans in China for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in financial behavior among residents [1]. Group 1: Financial Statistics - In the first half of 2025, household deposits increased by 10.77 trillion yuan to reach 162.02 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.42% [1]. - Household loan balances rose by 1.17 trillion yuan to 84 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4% [1]. - Both household deposit and loan balances reached historical highs, with "net deposits" exceeding 78 trillion yuan [1]. Group 2: Trends in Loans and Deposits - Since the downturn of the real estate market in 2021, the growth rate of household loans has significantly declined, with a total increase of 19.54 trillion yuan from early 2021 to now, averaging an annual increase of 4.34 trillion yuan [1]. - In contrast, during the relatively prosperous real estate period from 2016 to 2020, household loan balances increased by 37.1 trillion yuan, averaging an annual increase of 7.42 trillion yuan [1]. - The growth rate of household deposits has continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 9.27 trillion yuan from 136.99 trillion yuan to 146.26 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 6.7% [1]. - In the first half of this year, household deposits increased by an additional 1.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate increase of 0.72 percentage points [1].

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Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in mobile internet usage and user engagement in the first half of 2025, driven by advancements in AI technology and deeper integration into offline scenarios [2][12][14]. User Growth and Engagement - As of May 2025, the number of active mobile internet users reached 1.262 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with monthly average usage time rising by 8% to 178.9 hours [3][12]. - Monthly active users for mobile video, mobile shopping, travel services, and lifestyle service apps reached 1.167 billion, 1.094 billion, 1.094 billion, and 0.902 billion respectively, indicating a growing trend in these sectors [3][14]. Device Usage Trends - The number of active users for smart devices reached 443 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, leading all sectors [3][14]. - Smart TV active device count stood at 288 million, with Xiaomi, Skyworth, Hisense, TCL, and Haier being the top five brands [3][19]. Tourism and Travel Services - The travel service app sector saw a monthly active user count of 176 million, up 7.2% year-on-year, with major platforms like Ctrip and Fliggy showing strong user growth [4][27]. - Ctrip and Fliggy's unique user counts reached 139 million and 40.4 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5% and 35.4% [29]. Financial Services - The financial management sector's active user base reached 989 million, with a notable increase in usage frequency by 14% year-on-year [54][60]. - Major banks are integrating AI technologies into their services, enhancing user experience and driving traffic growth [60][63]. Entertainment and Media - The OTT media landscape is thriving, with Mango TV's user base growing by 14.7% to 468 million, driven by innovative interactive content [38][40]. - Short dramas and games on platforms like Douyin are gaining popularity, with top short drama mini-programs exceeding 20 million in traffic [40][44]. Summary of Key Sectors - The article emphasizes the importance of multi-device collaboration and the increasing demand for intelligent experiences across various sectors, including travel, finance, and entertainment [14][15][54].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weaker credit impulse expected from Q3, suggesting a cautious outlook for the industry [4][13]. Core Insights - Strong government bond issuance has driven a 10bps increase in broad credit year-on-year, reaching 9.1% [3][13]. - Private credit demand remains weak, with bank loans unchanged at 7.1%, reflecting subdued private credit amid a softer property market and external tariff impacts [3][13]. - A supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion is anticipated from Beijing in September/October to address slowing GDP growth, projected to dip to 4.5% year-on-year [5][13]. Summary by Sections - **Credit Impulse and Government Bonds**: The fiscal-led credit impulse peaked due to strong government bond issuance, which has improved liquidity for local governments and infrastructure entities [3][4]. - **Future Projections**: The remaining quota for government bond issuance in the second half of 2025 is expected to be below Rmb6 trillion, leading to a reversal in the credit impulse trend [4][5]. - **Economic Growth Outlook**: The report forecasts a slowdown in real GDP growth to 4.5% year-on-year in Q3, influenced by the payback of front-loaded exports and a negative deflationary feedback loop [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the industry, supported by stronger-than-expected loan and credit data in June [1]. Core Insights - June money and credit data exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by robust loan extensions and strong government bond issuance [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the gradual transmission of monetary policy and the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility, suggesting a potential gentle descent for USD/CNY in the coming months [1][11]. Summary by Sections Loan and Credit Data - New RMB loans in June were reported at RMB 2240 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of RMB 2020 billion and Goldman Sachs forecast of RMB 2000 billion [2]. - Outstanding RMB loan growth remained stable at 7.1% year-over-year in June, consistent with May's figures [3][9]. - Total social financing (TSF) flow reached RMB 4199 billion in June, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3801 billion [2]. TSF and M2 Growth - TSF stock growth accelerated to 8.9% year-over-year in June, compared to 8.7% in May, with a month-on-month growth of 8.2% [3][9]. - M2 growth was reported at 8.3% year-over-year in June, up from 7.9% in May, aligning with market expectations [3][10]. Government Bonds and Fiscal Deposits - Total government bond net issuance remained strong at RMB 1409 billion in June, slightly up from RMB 1352 billion in May [4][9]. - Fiscal deposits declined in June, consistent with seasonal patterns, indicating a potential increase in money supply growth due to the use of fiscal funds [10][11].