M Global Insight May 20, 2025 06:37 PM GMT Global Strategy Mid-Year Outlook All Eyes on US US risky and risk-free assets are attractive versus the RoW against a backdrop of a slowing but still expanding global economy despite policy uncertainty, along with deregulation and more rate cuts than priced in the markets. We are OW US equities, OW core fixed income, and expect a weaker dollar. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors sho ...

20 May 2025 | 3:52PM EDT Global Market Views: Smaller Tails Widen Some Paths, Narrow Others 1. Some paths widen, some narrow. Equity markets have relaxed over the past month following a succession of positive trade-related developments between the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and the recent tariff reduction with respect to China. Tariff rates are now lower, but not low, and the same can be said about recession risks in the US. The lowering of trade tensions means that even if hard data 'catch down' to ...

May 20, 2025 06:44 PM GMT China Economics Mid-Year Outlook Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente We revise our 2025 GDP forecast upward by 30 bps to 4.5% due to reduced tariff headwinds. But deflation persists, as structural issues (housing, consumption) continue to exert downward pressure on prices. We expect lighter, delayed stimulus focused on infrastructure. Milder growth slowdown amid lower tariffs: 2025/26 GDP growth raised to 4.5%/4.2% YoY (vs. 4.2%/4.0%Y previously). We now see GDP YoY stabiliz ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the impact of President Trump's tariff policy on the global economy and financial markets, particularly focusing on the trade relations between the US, China, and the UK. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements** - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline following the announcement of reciprocal tariff rates on April 2, leading to a "triple decline" in stocks, Treasury bonds, and the US dollar [1][26][49] 2. **Ceasefire and Market Stabilization** - A ceasefire was declared on April 9, pausing tariff implementations for 90 days, which helped stabilize markets as provisional agreements were reached with the UK and China [1][34][49] 3. **Investment Delays Due to Uncertainty** - Businesses are likely to delay or scale back investments due to ongoing concerns about tariffs, potentially triggering a global economic slowdown or recession [2][53] 4. **Historical Context of GATT** - The free trade system under GATT allowed certain unfair trade practices, which Trump aimed to address through reciprocal tariffs, shocking many in the business community [4][5][15] 5. **Negotiation Dynamics with China** - The US and China agreed to reduce mutual tariff rates by 115%, but the US still plans to impose a 30% tax on Chinese imports, reflecting ongoing tensions [39][40] 6. **Inflation Concerns** - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index indicated rising inflation expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [51][52] 7. **Impact of Tariff Uncertainty on Corporate Investment** - The unpredictability of tariff rates is likely to lead companies to adopt a more cautious approach to capital investment, affecting long-term business decisions [53][55] 8. **Political Influence on Economic Policy** - Major contributors to the Republican Party have the power to influence Trump's policies, as seen when the tariff pause was announced following market declines [34][35][36] 9. **Future of US Trade Policy** - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's future actions remains a significant risk for the US economy, as his impulsive decisions could lead to further market instability [58][61] 10. **Geopolitical Implications** - The US's need for strong trade relations with allies is emphasized, especially in the context of competing with China's economic power [79][80] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Trade Deficits** - The US trade deficits have persisted for 40 years, and Trump's focus on reducing these deficits is a long-standing goal that resonates with his core supporters [14][82][83] 2. **Market Sensitivity to Tariff Announcements** - The announcement of high tariffs can have irreversible impacts on risk calculations for businesses, as seen in past trade frictions [56][55] 3. **Potential for Currency Adjustments** - There is a risk that the Trump administration may consider adjusting exchange rates as a means to address trade imbalances, which could lead to further dollar weakness [86][88] 4. **Negotiation Challenges with China** - The complexity of US-China negotiations is highlighted, with the potential for impulsive decisions by Trump complicating the process [42][46][47] 5. **Long-term Economic Outlook** - The overall outlook for financial markets and the US economy remains unpredictable, with inflation concerns and trade uncertainties posing significant challenges [49][50][61]

16 May 2025 | 7:27PM BST EM Local Rates Mixed Blessings From Tariff Relief Tadas Gedminas +44(20)7051-6015 | tadas.gedminas@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Kamakshya Trivedi +44(20)7051-4005 | kamakshya.trivedi@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Danny Suwanapruti +65-6889-1987 | danny.suwanapruti@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosur ...

16 May 2025 | 1:59PM EDT Global Economics Wrap-Up: May 16, 2025 Global Economics 5/16/25 1:30PM ET o We raised our Euro area growth forecast to 0.9% and 1.1% for 2025 and 2026 (vs 0.8% and 1% previously) in response to firmer growth abroad and easier financial conditions. Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Katya Vashkinskaya +44(20)7774-4833 | katya.vashkinskaya@gs.com Goldman Sachs Inte ...

19 May 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker – High Frequency Trends Should Point to China Reversal - But Need Another Week US Tariff Impact Tracker – Net, net, the world order has shifted once again demonstrating the roiling impact of tariffs and tariff direction on week-to-week sentiment as to how it will impact global freight flows. With the China 90 Day deal, we once again are of the perception that pull-forward – at least in part – will re-emerge as the dominant action in ...

Core Viewpoint - B. Riley Securities Holdings, Inc. has provided a business and financial update following its carve-out from B. Riley Financial, Inc., emphasizing a commitment to financial transparency and long-term value creation despite macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, B. Riley Securities reported total revenue of $217.7 million and adjusted net income of $33.1 million, while experiencing a net loss of $14.5 million [4][12]. - The adjusted financials reflect contributions from Cascadia Investments Inc. and other subsidiaries as if they had been completed on January 1, 2024 [5][11]. Debt and Cash Position - The company is now completely debt-free, having repaid all $12.4 million of its outstanding debt, and holds $68 million in cash and securities as of the carve-out effective date [6][5]. Operational Highlights - In 2024, B. Riley Securities raised $16.5 billion in debt and equity for clients and expanded its capabilities in key areas such as Convertibles and Liability Management [3]. - The advisory practice has been realigned to better serve core clients, focusing on Capital Markets [3]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance visibility into its strategy and vision for value creation, positioning itself for sustainable growth and maximizing shareholder value [2][3].

Company Overview - Columbus Circle Capital Corp. I is a blank check company formed to effect mergers, amalgamations, share exchanges, asset acquisitions, share purchases, reorganizations, or similar business combinations with one or more businesses [7] - The management team includes Gary Quin as CEO and Chairman, and Joseph W. Pooler, Jr. as CFO, along with independent directors Garrett Curran, Alberto Alsina Gonzalez, Dr. Adam Back, and Matthew Murphy [7] Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details - The company closed its upsized initial public offering of 25,000,000 units, with gross proceeds of $250,000,000, priced at $10.00 per unit [1] - The offering included 3,000,000 units from the partial exercise of the underwriters' overallotment option [1] - Units began trading on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol "CCCMU" on May 16, 2025, with each unit consisting of one Class A ordinary share and one-half of one redeemable warrant [2] Financial and Legal Aspects - The proceeds from the IPO and a simultaneous private placement were placed in the company's trust account for the benefit of public shareholders [6] - The registration statement for the offering was declared effective by the SEC on May 15, 2025 [4] - Legal counsel for the company included Ellenoff Grossman & Schole LLP and Ogier (Cayman) LLP, while Loeb & Loeb LLP served as legal counsel to the underwriters [3] Cohen & Company Overview - Cohen & Company Inc. is a financial services company specializing in capital markets and asset management services [8] - The company operates through segments including Capital Markets, Asset Management, and Principal Investing, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and SPAC advisory services [8] - As of March 31, 2025, Cohen & Company had approximately $2.3 billion in assets under management, primarily in fixed income assets [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's activity data weakened sequentially in April, reflecting the negative impact of increased US tariffs and soft domestic demand, with a Q2 real GDP growth forecast of 5.0% year-on-year appearing on track despite mixed activity data [1][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth declined to 6.1% year-on-year in April from 7.7% in March, slightly above market consensus of 5.7% due to trade re-routing [2][10] - Sequentially, IP contracted by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [10] - Output growth in computer-related industries slowed significantly, with smartphone and computer output growth dropping to -6.4% and -2.2% year-on-year, respectively [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 4.3% in March, primarily due to slower infrastructure and property investment growth [11] - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 7.1% year-on-year, while property investment saw a drop of 11.3% year-on-year in April [11] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year-on-year in April from 5.9% in March, below market consensus of 5.9% [4][12] - Online goods sales, offline goods sales, and restaurant sales revenue growth moderated to 6.1%, 4.7%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively [13] Services Industry - The Services Industry Output Index growth remained stable at 6.0% year-on-year in April, down from 6.3% in March [14] - Sequentially, the index fell by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [14] Property-Related Activity - Property sales growth slowed to -2.1% year-on-year in April from -1.0% in March, with significant declines in new home starts and completions [15] - Real estate investment dropped by 11.3% year-on-year in April [12][15] Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in April from 5.2% in March, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers also decreasing to 4.8% [16]