行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 宏观情绪波动，贵金属表现相对强劲 一周一议：商务部 10月 9日发布四则稀土管控政策，旨在加强稀土全产业链管控。1.商务部 2025 第61 号： 拓宽管制范围，从4.4 日的中重稀土管控拓宽至境外相关稀土物项管控；2.商务部2025 第 62 号：明确对稀 土相关技术实施出口管制；3.商务部 海关总署2025 年第 56 号：对部分稀土设备和原辅料相关物项实施出 口管制；4.商务部 海关总署 2025 年第57 号：对部分中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。管控将强化稀土产 业核心竞争力，长期而言对产业有深远影响，尤其是涉及中重稀土和深加工磁材环节，从工艺设备流程到 最终产品都纳入管制，更符合管制的本意全面把高附加环节留在国内。 基本金属：降息预期升温叠加供给冲击，铜价向上突破。1）铜：本周铜价上行，沪铜收于 85910元/吨。 基本面上，国内产出依然处于年内相对偏低的水平，海外矿山对于铜价的影响有所减弱；然而近期随着海 内外价差再度走扩，国内出口预期有所增加，且海外的远期货源也开始出现明显的溢价，国内再度呈现进 口预期下降而出口预期提升的状态；需求上表现平淡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to remain focused on domestic policies, with a low likelihood of replicating the market conditions seen on April 7. Short-term uncertainties in the external environment may suppress market risk appetite, leading to increased volatility and divergence among individual stocks. However, the core drivers of the current market trend remain unchanged, with liquidity expected to continue improving [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals, industrial metals, and minor metals), agriculture, and energy for investment opportunities [1]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue and deepen during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. - The theme of new productive forces will be crucial, with technology companies that align with national strategies and possess genuine technological barriers being significant investment targets in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - Short-term attention should be given to sectors that are poised for recovery, while medium to long-term focus should be on industries that are breaking through current trends [1]. - The large consumption sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies, potentially driving market performance upward [1]. - The acceleration of major engineering projects in various regions will promote the improvement and development of industrial chains [1].

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 印尼供给扰动推动锡价走强，稀土行业出台出口管制公告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/9/29-2025/10/10） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 稀土：宏观情绪增强，氧化镨钕高位震荡。近两周，氧化镨钕下跌 0.89%至 55.75 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.62%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.35%至 702.5 万元/吨。 ...

A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 ③国信证券：黄金中长期继续维持乐观看法 关注市场第三浪机会 国信证券发布研报指出，黄金第三浪的机会可能触发在海外人工智能科技浪潮筑顶带来的资金再分流， 目前看并无征兆。2003-2004年、2006-2007年美国科技股和黄金同涨，再到科技浪潮中止符、黄金超涨 都是相同逻辑，避险情绪从地缘端扩散到资金流，目前尚未触发第三阶段信号。仍看好黄金中长期价格 走势，居民资产配置中黄金的比例在2-10%间较适宜，机构配置盘比例则可适当提升。 ④中国银河证券：市场大概率不会复制4月7日行情 中国银河证券研报指出，市场聚焦中长期政策预期，A股市场仍将"以我为主"，市场大概率不会复制4 月7日行情。短期来看，外部环境不确定上升压制市场风险偏好，叠加部分资金获利回吐压力，将加剧 市场波动，个股分歧或加大。但是驱动本轮行情的核心因素并未改变。流动性预计延续向好趋势。 在"十五五"规划关键窗口期和三季报披露窗口期，重点关注新一轮政策聚焦领域和业绩确定性较强板 块。 关注有色金属（贵金属、工业金属、小金属）、农业、能源行业的投资机会。（1）"反内卷"："十五 五"时期，"反内卷"政策将保持延续性，并 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report reiterates the focus on "price increase" opportunities due to current market conditions, including geopolitical disturbances and upcoming quarterly reports, suggesting that sectors with price increase expectations are the most certain investment opportunities [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price increase trend is similar to that of 2020-2021, driven by global monetary easing and structural supply-demand mismatches in various industries, such as the semiconductor sector affected by pandemic-induced demand shifts [2][3] - The semiconductor industry, particularly storage, is experiencing price increases due to AI demand, with potential future impacts from tightened rare earth exports affecting supply chains [2][3] Metal Sector Precious Metals - Gold and silver are seen as strategic assets, with gold benefiting from geopolitical instability and central bank purchases, while silver has both precious and industrial metal attributes, showing strong price support due to supply-demand gaps [4][6] Minor Metals - Prices for cobalt, tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are expected to rise due to export restrictions and increasing demand from downstream industries, with cobalt's price expected to rise following changes in export regulations [6][8] Chemical Sector - The PTA industry is anticipated to recover as major players seek to improve profitability through potential production cuts, while pesticide prices, particularly glyphosate, have seen significant increases [7][8] Semiconductor Sector - The storage chip market is entering a growth phase driven by recovering consumer electronics and unexpected AI server demand, leading to price hikes across various storage products [8][9] New Energy Sector Battery and Raw Materials - The demand for energy storage and power batteries is surging, with rising raw material costs pushing up battery prices, particularly for lithium iron phosphate and electrolyte [9][10] Wind Power - The wind power sector is witnessing a rebound in bidding prices due to industry self-regulation and increased global demand for wind installations [11][12] Photovoltaic Silicon - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is seeing a reduction in effective capacity due to policy-driven supply-side adjustments, moving towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [12] Copper Clad Laminate - The demand for copper clad laminate is increasing due to rising capital expenditures from major internet companies, leading to price increases from manufacturers [13] Diesel Generators/UPS Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for diesel generators and UPS lead-acid batteries is growing rapidly due to the expansion of data centers, with supply constraints leading to price increases [14]

证券之星消息，10月10日小金属板块较上一交易日下跌2.66%，华锡有色领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3897.03，下跌0.94%。深证成指报收于13355.42，下跌2.7%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000960 | 锡业股份 | 1.03亿 | 5.16% | -5749.29万 | -2.88% | -4533.20万 | -2.27% | | 600301 | 华锡有色 | 832.04万 | 1.16% | 447.61万 | 0.62% | -1279.64万 | -1.78% | | 600281 | 华阳新材 | -238.45万 | -2.34% | -417.25万 | -4.10% | 655.70万 | 6.44% | | 301026 | 浩通科技 | -1074.84万 | -6.56% | -1414.84万 | -8.63% | 24 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790121070009 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 ETF 资金持仓：A 股指数投资的大时代正在到来。近年来，指数投资产品呈现供 需两旺的繁荣气象，2025 年二季度末公募 ETF 基金总规模已突破 4.3 万亿元。 测算结果显示，ETF 资金持仓占有色金属板块股票市值比例 8 月以来持续上升； 两融余额动向：融资余额是指在融资融券交易中未偿还的融资总金额。一般认为， 融资余额的增加，意味着投资者看多后市。测算结果显示：有 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong opening on October 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, reaching a ten-year high at 3933.97 points, up 1.32% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 13725.56 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,532 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4,718 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The majority of industry sectors saw gains, with precious metals, energy metals, and steel industries leading the rise, while tourism and real estate services faced declines [1] - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase, with 12 stocks in the sector, 4 of which hit the daily limit, and the smallest gain being 5.3% for Hunan Gold [2] Key Drivers - The market's upward momentum was attributed to two main factors: accelerated recovery of margin financing and positive performance in overseas markets, particularly in artificial intelligence and non-ferrous metals [1] - The price of gold surpassed 4000 USD/ounce, driven by increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Technical Analysis - The market showed strong bullish signals, with all three major indices in a bullish arrangement, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, which is expected to continue rising and may reach 4000 points soon [3] - The MACD indicator showed a reduction in green bars, and the KDJ line indicated an upward trend, suggesting further upward movement in the coming days [3] Company Spotlight - Jinbei Electric, a company specializing in the research, production, and sales of wire and cable products, saw its stock hit the daily limit, primarily due to the favorable sentiment surrounding the controllable nuclear fusion concept [3] - The company reported a net profit of 296.28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.46% [3] - Jinbei Electric's products are utilized in various nuclear power stations and are involved in projects related to the nuclear fusion industry, enhancing its market position [3]

中国稀土所属申万行业为：有色金属-小金属-稀土。所属概念板块包括：稀土永磁、稀缺资源、小金 属、国资改革、MSCI中国等。 截至9月19日，中国稀土股东户数23.00万，较上期增加6.66%；人均流通股4614股，较上期减少6.25%。 2025年1月-6月，中国稀土实现营业收入18.75亿元，同比增长62.38%；归母净利润1.62亿元，同比增长 166.16%。 分红方面，中国稀土A股上市后累计派现3.46亿元。近三年，累计派现1.24亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，中国稀土十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股1960.25万股，相比上期增加389.09万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第五大流通股 东，持股1106.63万股，相比上期增加148.70万股。南方中证申万有色金属ETF发起联接A（004432）退 出十大流通股东之列。 10月10日，中国稀土盘中下跌2.00%，截至10:21，报55.77元/股，成交26.27亿元，换手率4.37%，总市 值591.84亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出6735.87万元，特大单买入4.60亿元，占比1 ...

10 月市场观点：假期要闻概览与业绩线索指引 1、国庆假期要闻概览 假期居民旅游出行数据旺盛，且跨境旅游消费成为重要亮点，院线票房表现相对 偏弱；海外多国政局再添变数，美国政府时隔七年再度"停摆"、法国总理请辞、 日本首位女首相或将诞生，美、日、欧货币与财政政策走向不确定性增多。总体 看，海外政局变数与美联储降息预期波动更多主导资产定价，权益资产普遍震荡 收涨，黄金与比特币新高（详见正文）。 2、三季报业绩线索梳理 综合工业企业利润、中观数据等跟踪，预计三季报值得关注的方向主要涉及四类 （详见正文）：一是受益于外部降息和新兴需求拉动的有色金属（贵金属、工业金 属、小金属），二是反内卷催化下实现价格企稳的钢铁、煤炭、化工、光伏等；三 是延续稳健量增的汽车、锂电、电力、物流等；四是海内外需求共振驱动的 AI 条 线（算力相关）。 3、月度市场回顾： 证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 投资策略 9 月以来，海外降息如期落地且连续降息预期升温，黄金重启上行并创历史新高， 港股明显补涨，A 股表现相对偏弱。月度级别看，交投情绪重返合理区间，两融入 场放缓，ETF 则 ...