证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年03月02日 水电等主题右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0227 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0227最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：水电、代糖、小金属、聚碳酸酯、钛白粉、有机硅、磷化 工、超硬材料、钒电池、半导体材料、半导体设备、MLCC、LNG等。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池。 l 3）底部企稳，新增：信托重仓、医美等。 l 4）底部反转，持续：六氟磷酸锂，锂电电解液，手机电池，白酒，品牌龙头。 录 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 备注：1）本文数据更新至2026/02/27。下同。2）主题形态构建的具体内容参考2025/12/14发布的专题报告《主题形态学三板斧》。3）主题形态的已持续天 数，指信号出 ...

沪深两指小幅低开后迅速上涨，沪指在零轴附近保持小幅震荡走势， 深成指走势相对更弱。2 月 27 日下午开盘后，两指再度走出一波上涨， 随后保持震荡至收盘。最终沪指收涨 0.39%，深成指收跌 0.06%。创业 板指和科创 50 指数表现相对弱势，分别下跌 1.04%、上涨 0.15%。两 市成交量较前一交易日基本持平。 贵金属相关板块再度成为热点，同时电力产业链部分板块同样保持了 一定热度。两者的上涨逻辑与前几日并无太大变化，其中贵金属仍主 要受国际局势变化影响，而电力产业链则主要受 AI 发展需求推动。短 期内相关原因难以迅速消失，故仍存在博弈机会。 短期市场或延续震荡，需关注一季度政策窗口期及年报、季报业绩反 馈。中长期看，国际局势波动及 AI 产业溢出仍是市场主要关注方向。 操作方面，建议关注相对涨幅较低、估值合理的绩优蓝筹。 每日市场观察 2026 年 3 月 2 日 【今日关注】 【市场回顾】 市场概况：2 月 27 日，沪指 2 月累计涨 1.09%，呈现"冲高后窄幅震 荡"的走势，月线斩获 3 连阳。深成指累计涨 2.04%，创业板指累计跌 1.08%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：2 月 27 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the small metals market, specifically focusing on tin, antimony, tantalum, and molybdenum, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and strategic stockpiling on metal prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Pricing Dynamics - The pricing framework of the metals industry is shifting from a global supply-demand balance to a regionalized approach due to geopolitical conflicts and de-globalization, leading to increased strategic stockpiling and inventory disparities across regions [2][3]. - The traditional mechanism where high inventory leads to price drops is weakened, as evidenced by the rising "locked inventory stocks" and reduced market liquidity, making prices more susceptible to upward movements [3]. Supply and Demand Characteristics - Tin supply is constrained, with production growth nearly stagnant over the past decade. Major producers like China, Indonesia, and Myanmar are experiencing declining output, while new supply mainly comes from less stable sources in South America and Africa [1][5]. - Tin demand is primarily driven by electronic solder, with semiconductor-related demand accounting for about 50%. The shift towards lead-free solder and the growth in PCB shipments are expected to boost demand further [6]. - Tantalum supply is highly concentrated in Africa, making it vulnerable to disruptions. Recent incidents, such as a mining accident in the Congo, have led to significant price increases due to supply constraints [2][23]. Strategic Stockpiling Impact - The strategic stockpiling demand for small metals is expected to have a more pronounced impact on demand compared to larger metals. For instance, a similar level of inventory restructuring in small metals could lead to a demand increase of 5-10% [4]. - The demand for tin and tantalum is particularly sensitive to price changes due to their lower cost share in downstream applications, making them more resilient to price fluctuations [3][4]. Future Supply Constraints - The recovery of tin production in Myanmar is lagging due to infrastructure issues and natural disasters, with expectations for reduced output in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - Indonesia's tin supply is also under pressure from resource protection policies, which may lead to reduced exports and increased costs [8][9]. Market Outlook - The market for molybdenum is expected to remain tight due to stable demand from the energy and manufacturing sectors, with potential supply pressures emerging in 2029-2030 as new projects come online [26][27]. - The overall outlook for small metals, particularly tin, remains bullish due to strong demand forecasts driven by AI and semiconductor growth, coupled with supply constraints [11][20]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of strategic metals in the context of national security and supply chain resilience, particularly for countries looking to reduce dependency on foreign sources [2][4]. - The potential for price increases in tantalum and molybdenum is significant, driven by both supply constraints and increasing demand from high-tech applications [20][26]. - Key companies to watch in the small metals sector include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals for tin, and Dongfang Tantalum for tantalum, with a focus on their production capabilities and market strategies [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the metals industry, particularly focusing on non-ferrous metals due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Iran, are expected to drive demand for precious metals as a safe haven, while also benefiting metals with high military demand such as tungsten, titanium, and rare earths [1]. - The report emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-demand narratives and nationalism, recommending a focus on metals like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium [1]. - Short-term recommendations include focusing on bottom metals and those experiencing accelerated price increases, alongside new materials related to technology growth [1]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 8,845.5 billion and a circulating market value of 7,741.8 billion [2]. - The non-ferrous metals index showed a weekly increase of 6.09%, ranking third among various sectors, with energy metals leading at 9.32% [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month, six months, and twelve months stands at 5.5%, 54.6%, and 102.0% respectively, indicating strong growth [3]. - The report notes that the largest gainers in the non-ferrous sector include Yunnan Germanium, which saw a weekly increase of 37.77%, while the largest decliner was Haomei New Materials, with a drop of 5.15% [3]. Metal-Specific Insights - Copper production from the top 20 global mining companies is projected at 3,526 thousand metric tons for Q4 2025, reflecting a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 10.5% decrease year-on-year [1]. - Aluminum inventories in China reached 1,157,000 tons as of February 26, 2026, marking a 265,000-ton increase from the previous year, which is a significant high for the period [1]. - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions may disrupt aluminum production in Iran, potentially leading to price increases [1][4]. Price Trends - The report indicates that silver prices have surged by 15.24% due to macroeconomic uncertainties and supply constraints, while silicon metal prices have decreased by 1.24% due to weak demand recovery [3]. - The report maintains a target price of $6,000 per ounce for gold in 2026, supported by geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [4].

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩下游提价，产业链上下游联动推动钨价新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2026/2/16-2026/2/27） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | | | 稀土：供给格局紧张下游补库，氧化镨钕突破新高。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 4.71% 至 89 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 9.83%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽上涨 1.56%至 652.5 万元 / ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 美伊局势扰动加剧，宏观带动金属价格上行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：美以开始对伊朗进行打击，避险情绪上行 带动黄金走强 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.59%至 5,296.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 22.15%至 94.39 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 3.41%至 1,147.90 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 16.36%至 23,019.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 14.37%至 56.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 781,154.27 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 1,586,043.90 盎司。 周一，美国 12 月工厂订单月率 -0.7%，预期-0.5%，前值 2.70%。美国 2 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 0.2，前值-1.2。 周二，美国 12 月 S&P/CS20 座大城市未季调房价指数年 率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值 1.39%。美国 ...

本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.59%至 5,296.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 22.15%至 94.39 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 3.41%至 1,147.90 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 16.36%至 23,019.00 元/千克。 [Table_Title] 美伊局势扰动加剧，宏观带动金属价格上行 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周金银比下跌 14.37%至 56.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 781,154.27 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 减少 1,586,043.90 盎司。 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 ►贵金属：美以开始对伊朗进行打击，避险情绪上行 带动黄金走强 周一，美国 12 月工厂订单月率 -0.7%，预期-0.5%，前值 2.70%。美国 2 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 0.2，前值-1.2。 周二，美国 12 月 S&P/CS20 座大城市未季调房价指数年 率 1.4%，预期 1.4%，前值 1.39%。美国 ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略周报 两会临近，A 股实现开门红 ——2026.02.24-2026.02.27 日策略周报 核心要点： A 股实现开门红，指数震荡上行 分析师：仇华 据 Wind 数据，2026.02.24-2026.02.27 日，A 股在春节后第一周实现了开门 红，我们关注的 6 个 A 股指数震荡上行，最终：上证指数上涨 1.98%、深 证成指上涨 2.80%、创业板指上涨 1.05%、沪深 300 上涨 1.08%、科创综指 上涨 2.24%、万得全 A 上涨 2.75%。周振幅最大的是科创综指的 3.73%。 A 股指数上周总体呈现震荡上行态势，主要原因在于：一是春节期间，国 内消费数据温和上升；二是两会临近，市场对"十五五"规划重点方向的关 注度再次上升，科技、"反内卷"板块再次走强。 二级行业中，小金属、玻璃玻纤涨幅居前 据 Wind 数据，31 个申万一级行业上周数量上涨多跌少。累计涨幅居前的 板块是：钢铁、有色金属，分别上涨了 12.27%、9.77%；而跌幅居前的是 传媒和商贸零售，分别下跌了 5.10%和 1.64%。 据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the emergence of HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) assets as a new investment focus due to the disruptions caused by AI, prompting investors to reassess risks [1] - Morgan Stanley introduced the HALO trading concept, creating a HALO basket (MSXXHALO) that includes seven structural pillars: materials, utilities, railroads, pipelines, waste management, defense, and signal towers, aimed at mitigating risks associated with technological obsolescence [1] - Goldman Sachs corroborated this trend, indicating that the market is undergoing a "scarcity repricing" under the pressures of rising interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, and increased AI capital expenditures, with tangible production capacity becoming a scarce resource [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, HALO assets have been identified, with the electricity sector experiencing a strong rise driven by the HALO trading logic and increased electricity demand from AI [2] - Core materials such as rare earths and minor metals have also become focal points for investment, driven by supply-demand dynamics and AI-related demand [2] - Overall, A-share HALO assets are concentrated in electricity, metals, and utilities, exhibiting a "stronger gets stronger" structural characteristic, reflecting a global revaluation trend of HALO assets, although some leading stocks in the A-share market may face higher valuation risks due to excessive market enthusiasm [2]