Group 1: Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola has a strong brand, vast distribution network, low-cost business model, and steady demand, supporting growing cash flow and a dividend payout that has increased for 63 consecutive years [1] - The company operates an asset-light business model, where bottlers manage manufacturing and distribution, keeping capital costs lower while enjoying steady demand and pricing power [2] - Coca-Cola adapts to changing consumer tastes by offering a range of options, including low-calorie drinks, sports drinks, and energy brands, making it a staple among consumers [3] - Coca-Cola operates one of the largest beverage companies globally, with a diverse product range including soft drinks, juices, waters, teas, and coffees [4] Group 2: S&P Global - S&P Global is the largest credit rating agency in the U.S., holding a 50% market share, which provides a competitive advantage in a highly regulated industry [8] - The company has a robust data business that diversifies its earnings, providing analytics, indexes, and insights for investors, contributing to a reliable revenue stream [9] - S&P Global has a strong dividend payout history, having raised its payout for 52 consecutive years, making it a solid blue-chip stock for investors [10] Group 3: BlackRock - BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with over $13.5 trillion in assets under management, holding a significant share of the ETF market through its iShares family [11][12] - The company has benefited from a higher interest rate environment, with its global bond ETF assets growing from $1 trillion to $2.6 trillion from 2019 to 2024 [14] - BlackRock has a stable source of recurring revenue through fees on its products and has raised its dividend payout for 16 consecutive years, yielding 1.8% [16]

The US SEC has been scrutinizing Egan-Jones Ratings, according to people familiar with the matter, delving into the business practices of a leader in the fast-growing market for private-credit ratings. https://t.co/wO8rZu6w9O ...

Financial Performance - 3Q 2025 - S&P Global's revenue increased by 9% to $3888 million in 3Q 2025, compared to $3575 million in 3Q 2024[41] - Operating profit increased by 16% to $2026 million, with an operating margin of 52.1%, a 330 bps increase from 48.8% in 3Q 2024[41] - Net income (less NCI) increased by 19% to $1442 million, compared to $1210 million in 3Q 2024[41] - Diluted EPS increased by 22% to $4.73, compared to $3.89 in 3Q 2024[41] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow, excluding certain items, increased by 6% to $1505 million[41] Segment Performance - 3Q 2025 - S&P Global Market Intelligence revenue increased by 6% to $1236 million, with a segment operating margin of 35.6%[71] - S&P Global Ratings revenue increased by 12% to $1240 million, with a segment operating margin of 67.1%[79] - S&P Global Commodity Insights revenue increased by 6% to $556 million, with a segment operating margin of 48.1%[86] - S&P Global Mobility revenue increased by 8% to $445 million, with a segment operating margin of 43.3%[92] - S&P Dow Jones Indices revenue increased by 11% to $462 million, with a segment operating margin of 71.2%[98] Updated 2025 Guidance - The company updated its 2025 revenue growth guidance from 5%-7% to 7%-8%[110, 116] - The company updated its 2025 diluted EPS guidance from $14.35-$14.60 to $14.80-$15.05 on a GAAP basis[110] and from $17.00-$17.25 to $17.60-$17.85 on an adjusted basis[116]

Core Insights - KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to nine classes of notes issued by Pagaya Point of Sale Holdings Grantor Trust 2025-2 and Pagaya Point of Sale Holdings Trust 2025-2, collectively known as POSH 2025-2, which is a point-of-sale unsecured consumer loan ABS transaction [1][2] Summary by Category Transaction Structure - POSH 2025-2 will issue 10 classes of notes totaling $300 million, with ratings provided for Class A through Class F Notes, Class AB, Class ABC, and Class ABCD [2] - The transaction is fully prefunded, meaning no collateral will be funded at closing, and includes an 18-month revolving period [2] - Upon the end of the revolving period or an amortization event, the amortization period will commence, during which reinvestment is not allowed, and distributions will be made sequentially to noteholders [2] Credit Enhancement - Initial hard credit enhancement levels range from 34.98% for Class A Notes to 2.18% for Class F Notes, which includes overcollateralization, subordination (except for Class F), a cash reserve account, and excess spread [1] Company Background - Pagaya Structured Products LLC, the sponsor and administrator of the transaction, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Pagaya US Holding Company LLC, which is fully owned by Pagaya Technologies Ltd., an Israeli corporation listed on NASDAQ (PGY) [3] - Pagaya Technologies is a financial technology company specializing in the lending marketplace, utilizing AI-driven credit and analysis technology [3] Rating Methodology - KBRA applied its Consumer Loan ABS Global Rating Methodology, Global Structured Finance Counterparty Methodology, and ESG Global Rating Methodology in analyzing the transaction's capital structure and Pagaya's historical data [4] - Operational reviews of Pagaya and each of the Platform Sellers were considered, along with periodic update calls and recent surveillance on each platform's KBRA-rated securitizations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The analyst maintains a buy rating for Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) based on the attractive upside potential over the next two years if the company meets consensus FY28 adjusted EPS expectations [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is fundamentally driven, focusing on identifying businesses with potential for scaling and unlocking significant terminal value [1] - Key factors considered include competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment runway, and management quality, which are essential for long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of fundamental research and targets sectors with strong secular tailwinds [1] Group 2: Professional Background - The analyst has 10 years of experience in investment banking and is currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1] - The motivation for writing on Seeking Alpha is to share investment insights and receive feedback from fellow investors [1] - The aim is to help readers focus on the drivers of long-term equity value, with a belief that good analysis should be both analytical and accessible [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, representing an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [5] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage [5] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, a 22% increase from the previous year, reflecting consistent earnings power growth [5][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's Investors Service (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [6][21] - Revenue from private credit grew over 60% in the third quarter, driven by strong demand in fund finance and securitization [11] - Moody's Analytics (MA) delivered a 9% year-over-year revenue growth, with an 11% increase in decision solutions [12][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with projected refunding needs over the next four years exceeding $5 trillion, a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Spec-grade bond maturities increased by over 20% in both the U.S. and EMEA regions, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [10] - The number of private credit-related deals grew almost 70% in the third quarter, highlighting the sector's growth potential [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable solutions across high-growth markets while simplifying its product suite [12] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, including acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [19] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Salesforce, are being leveraged to enhance customer integration and drive durable growth [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [60] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for credit insights, particularly in the private credit market amid rising concerns about credit health [70] - Management acknowledged risks related to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential government shutdown impacts on market conditions [28] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance for adjusted diluted EPS to a range of $14.50 to $14.75, implying approximately 17% growth at the midpoint [37] - Free cash flow is expected to be around $2.5 billion, with share repurchase guidance increased to at least $1.5 billion [37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in the analytics business - Management clarified that AI is being embedded into various workflow solutions and that they have developed over 50 domain-specific agents leveraging proprietary data [41] Question: Impact of record issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more prevalent in spec-grade than investment-grade issuers, with healthy maturity walls expected [46] Question: Proprietary data sets in KYC solutions - Management highlighted the unique data sets used in KYC solutions, including Orbis and AI-curated news, which provide a comprehensive view of business relationships [50] Question: Differences in refi walls portrayal - Management explained that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec-grade refi walls, which is a subset of broader maturities that remain healthy [52] Question: Outlook for issuance in 2026 - Management indicated more tailwinds than headwinds for 2026, with expectations for continued strong issuance driven by M&A activity and infrastructure investments [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Moody's achieved record quarterly revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time, marking an 11% increase from the same quarter last year [6] - Adjusted operating margin reached almost 53%, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage [7] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.92, reflecting a 22% increase from the previous year, and more than doubling from three years ago [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ratings business (MIS) reported a 12% revenue growth, surpassing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the third consecutive quarter [8] - Transaction revenue in MIS rose 14%, with corporate finance transaction revenue increasing by 13% [28][30] - Moody's Analytics (MA) saw a 9% year-over-year revenue growth, with ARR reaching nearly $3.4 billion, up 8% from last year [15][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The issuance pipeline remains robust, with demand for debt financing strong in private credit, AI-powered data center expansion, and infrastructure development [9][10] - Refunding needs over the next four years are projected to exceed $5 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2018 to 2025 [11] - Spec grade maturities in the U.S. increased by over 20%, indicating a favorable backdrop for future issuance [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focused on investing in scalable recurring revenue businesses and simplifying its product suite, as evidenced by the sale of its Learning Solutions business [17] - The company is expanding its footprint in emerging markets, acquiring a majority interest in Meris, a leading ratings agency in Egypt [23][24] - The strategy includes leveraging AI capabilities to enhance customer workflows and embedding data into partner ecosystems, such as Salesforce [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the issuance environment heading into 2026, citing tight spreads and potential Fed easing as positive factors [78] - The company anticipates continued growth in private credit and infrastructure investments, particularly in digital infrastructure and data centers [82] - Risks include ongoing tariff negotiations and the potential impact of a prolonged government shutdown on market conditions [37] Other Important Information - Moody's is increasing its full-year guidance across almost all metrics, reflecting strong growth and operating leverage [5][27] - The company expects free cash flow to reach approximately $2.5 billion and plans to return over 85% of free cash flow to shareholders [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI in Analytics Business - Management indicated that AI is an opportunity for growth, with plans to embed AI into various workflow solutions and develop agentic solutions [51][52][55] Question: Impact of Record Issuance in Q3 - Management noted that pull forward activity is more common in spec grade than investment grade, with healthy maturity walls expected [58][60] Question: Proprietary Data in KYC Business - Management highlighted unique datasets in KYC solutions, including Orbis and politically exposed persons data, which provide a comprehensive view for customers [62][66] Question: Refi Walls and Market Conditions - Management clarified that the article referenced a decline in U.S. spec grade, while overall maturities remain healthy, with a positive outlook for refinancing [68][70] Question: Issuance Expectations for 2026 - Management anticipates more tailwinds than headwinds for issuance in 2026, driven by tight spreads and a robust M&A environment [76][78] Question: Growth in Moody's Analytics - Management confirmed that MA growth is tracking as expected, with a strong pipeline for Q4 and a focus on high single-digit growth [86][88] Question: Health of Private Credit Market - Management acknowledged concerns in the private credit market but emphasized the importance of independent credit assessments and the potential for demand for insights [91][94]

Financial Highlights - Adjusted Diluted EPS grew by 22% due to record revenue performance[9] - Quarterly revenue surpassed $2 billion, up 11% year-over-year[12] - Adjusted Operating Margin expanded 510bps to 529%[12] - MCO revenue growth increased to be in the high-single-digit percent range[12] - Adjusted Diluted EPS is up 17% at the midpoint, for a range of $1450 to $1475[12] - Free Cash Flow is approximately $25 billion[43] Moody's Investors Service (MIS) - MIS revenue reached a record high of $11 billion[9] - MIS rated issuance guidance increased to the mid-single-digit percent range[40] - Refinancing walls approximately doubled since 2018, reaching $52 trillion in September 2025[13, 14] - Year-over-year increase of 6% since previous study; stock of forward maturities remains robust, exceeding $5 trillion funding deep currents[15] - Adjusted Operating Margin increased 560 bps to 652%[26] Moody's Analytics (MA) - MA delivered 400bps of margin expansion in Q3[16] - ARR grew by 8% versus the prior year, reaching $34 billion[12] - Decision Solutions ARR is up 10%[9] - Recurring revenue accounts for 96% of total revenue[17]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi expresses optimism about the U.S. banking system but remains cautious regarding financial markets, indicating that current valuations are high and market sentiment is somewhat overheated, nearing bubble territory [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The highest 10% of income earners in the U.S. contribute approximately half of the national consumer spending, which supports economic growth despite inflation and tariffs [1] - The correlation between consumer spending capacity and capital market performance is highlighted, especially amid recent market volatility [1] Group 2: Market Risks - A potential reversal in the stock market could lead to a rapid reduction in spending by high-income households, posing challenges to the economic outlook [1]

Core Insights - Moody's is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 22, with strong revenue growth anticipated in its Corporate Finance line, the largest revenue contributor within the Moody's Investors Service division [1][2] Corporate Finance - Global bond issuance activity remained healthy in the third quarter, driven by strong corporate refinancing needs, leading to robust leveraged loan issuance [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corporate Finance revenues is $548.7 million, indicating a 6.5% increase year-over-year [2][10] Financial Institutions and Other Business Lines - The consensus estimate for revenues from the Financial Institutions business line is $174.9 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 2.9% [3] - Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance business revenues are estimated at $155.2 million, implying nearly 1% growth [3] Structured Finance - Quarterly issuance volumes for collateral debt obligations were robust, with marginal improvements in commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities [4] - The consensus estimate for Structured Finance revenues stands at $145.7 million, suggesting a 7.9% increase [4][10] Overall MIS Division Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MIS division revenues is $1.12 billion, implying an 8.9% year-over-year rise [5] Moody's Analytics Division - Revenues from the Moody's Analytics division are expected to have increased, with a consensus estimate of $909.52 million, indicating 9.1% growth from the prior year [6][7] - Increased expenses are anticipated due to costs related to acquisitions and restructuring efforts [7] Strategic Developments - Moody's plans to secure majority equity ownership in MERIS, a domestic credit rating agency in Egypt, enhancing its presence in the Middle East and Africa [8][9] Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $3.65, reflecting a 13.7% rise from the previous year [12] - The consensus estimate for sales is $1.95 billion, suggesting a 7.6% increase [13]