Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April will increase significantly and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. However, the buying enthusiasm of China and India has increased recently. As Brazilian soybeans gradually arrive at ports and customs clearance issues are resolved, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills will increase significantly, and the soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate seasonally, with the soybean oil basis likely to weaken. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil change little, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the rapeseed oil futures price fluctuates due to international relations [4][27]. - It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while the fundamentals of palm oil are gradually weakening and may run weakly. From the perspective of the futures price, the downward space of palm oil may be limited. [29] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events & Market Review - Three major forecasting agencies predict that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April may reach 1.79 million tons, and the production may increase by 17% to 1.62 million tons. The Gapki data shows that the production of Indonesian palm oil in February changed little month - on - month, exports reached 2.8 million tons, and the inventory dropped to a historically low level of 2.25 million tons [4]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Three major forecasting agencies estimate the production, import, export, domestic consumption, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April. The MPOB report will be released on Tuesday noon. The production in April is expected to increase significantly, but exports are still at a relatively low level in the same period of history [5][7]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The inventory of Indonesian palm oil in February was at a low level, and biodiesel consumption may be better than expected. The market is still skeptical about the implementation of B40 in Indonesia, but the biodiesel consumption data shows good implementation. The origin quotation is weakening, and palm oil is regaining market share [11]. - **India**: The import of edible oil in India in April may drop to around 870,000 tons, and the port inventory may drop to about 810,000 tons. The import and refining profits of the three major oils have improved, and the recent purchasing enthusiasm for palm oil has increased [16]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 3.23% week - on - week to 356,100 tons, still at a relatively low level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there were many purchases this week. The spot trading volume increased, and the basis was stable. The downward space of palm oil futures price may be limited [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 0.23% week - on - week to 619,900 tons, at a neutral - to - slightly - low level. The soybean crushing volume increased, and the basis decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will enter a stage of inventory accumulation, and the basis will be weak. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel [22]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume decreased last week. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased to 835,500 tons, at a historically high level. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil expanded. The spot trading volume increased slightly, and the basis decreased slightly. The futures price is affected by policies and maintains a wide - range volatile trend [25]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a volatile trend. Palm oil can be considered for light - position long - entry for a rebound or short - entry after a rebound. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [29]. Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking This part mainly presents various data charts, including the monthly production, export, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil; the supply and demand data of Indian oils; the import profit of domestic oils; the supply and demand and inventory data of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; and the basis data of domestic oils [31][32][33].

Core Insights - The average spot price of imported rapeseed oil in China on May 7 was 9407.50 CNY/ton, which is 72.50 CNY/ton higher than the futures main contract price of 9335.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market for rapeseed oil closed at 9335.00 CNY/ton on May 7, with a daily increase of 1.01%, reaching a high of 9362.00 CNY/ton and a low of 9180.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 435,548 contracts [2] - The total number of rapeseed oil futures warehouse receipts recorded on May 6 was 1357, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day, while the total decreased by 454 receipts over the past month, a reduction of 25.07% [3] Market Analysis - Short-term supply pressures are expected to lead to weak performance in the oilseed market, influenced by OPEC's production increase and a significant drop in international crude oil prices. Domestic oilseed prices are anticipated to follow the weak trends of external markets and international crude oil [4] - Palm oil is expected to perform relatively weakly due to the traditional production season leading to inventory accumulation and the downward pressure from external markets. In contrast, soybean oil is facing supply-demand gaps due to slow customs clearance, while rapeseed oil is expected to perform relatively strongly due to tight supply from Canadian old crops [4]

Core Insights - Australian Oilseeds Holdings Limited has shown resilience and growth despite global challenges, including geopolitical tensions and conflicts [1][2] - The company has successfully expanded its market presence in Australia and internationally, with significant sales through major retailers [3][4] - Fiscal 2024 results indicate a revenue increase of over 16%, driven by strong demand for cold-pressed canola oils, alongside improved gross margins and Adjusted EBITDA growth [4] Company Performance - The company has achieved a 16% revenue growth in fiscal 2024, primarily due to the demand for cold-pressed canola oils [4] - Gross margin improved by 40 basis points, and Adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 16% [4] - The company has successfully sold products through major Australian retailers, including Woolworths, Coles, Costco, and IGA [3] Future Outlook - Key milestones anticipated within the next six months include launching Good Earth Oils brands in Taiwan and India [5] - Expected significant growth in China due to Australia's preferential duty for its products compared to Canada and the USA [5] - Plans to launch products in the USA are contingent on clarity regarding the current tariff structure, which is currently 10% for Australian Canola Oil [5] Company Mission - The company is committed to eliminating chemicals from the food supply chain and promoting healthy oils to consumers globally [6] - Focus on regenerative farming practices and sourcing materials from suppliers that reduce chemical use [6] - The company operates the largest cold pressing oil plant in Australia, emphasizing non-GMO and organic oilseeds [6]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 来源:路孚特，中信建投期货绘制（通常豆棕价差存在季节性转强的窗口期：4月中-6月初） 过往支持着棕榈油的多头叙事： 1、树龄结构老化；2、成熟面积边际收缩；3、病虫害持续扰动（疥虫）；4、洪水限制铲果效率。 目前新增的多头逻辑讨论： 1、印尼强势表态支持B40，并有望在5年内逐步逼近B50；2、印尼精炼产能大幅增加，以至于新建罐容 囤积的安全生产库存大幅削弱400万吨国内库存压力；3、印尼部分头部种植园股权变更或影响园区管理效率，并限制产出。 在远景观察中，在"展望印尼可持续棕榈油领导地位"商业圆桌会议上，印尼农业部副部长强调，棕榈油产业贡献全国GDP的3.5%， 直接创造420万个就业岗位，并通过供应链支撑1600万人生活。当前印尼棕榈油年产量4600万吨（内需2000万吨，出口2600万 吨），但面临小农认证困难、环境可持续性等挑战。为实现2045年1亿吨毛棕榈油（CPO）的宏伟目标，政府推出三大战略：一是强 化监管协同，包括与林业部优化土地治理，推行B50生物柴油强制政策；二是提升上游生产力 ...