1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's clear B50 plan schedule, vegetable oils are expected to follow the trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), due to the lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, the short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 31, palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota for large refineries from 50% to 70% [1]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system, transfer the national institutional budget to "productive" uses, and implement the B50 biodiesel policy from July 1 [1]. - US NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. The May crude oil futures contract fell $1.5, with a settlement price of $101.38 per barrel [1]. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the proportion of biodiesel in regular diesel, while the energy minister calls for more tests [1]. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in the next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of the year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period last month, with an increase in exports to China [1][2]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased by 0.36% week - on - week and decreased by 5.92% year - on - year, with different trends in each type of oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to instability in the Middle East and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil futures are oscillating strongly at a high level. Indonesia's B50 plan tightens the future export expectation of palm oil. Vegetable oils mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions in vegetable oils should be continued to hold [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 31, the spot market was weak, and double - meal continued to decline. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, higher than last year but lower than analysts' expectations [2]. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%, lower than last year but close to the five - year average [2]. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal contract volume decreased. Imported rapeseed inventory and imported rapeseed meal contract volume both decreased [3]. - Provide spot prices, basis prices, and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal as of March 31, as well as soybean crushing profits and soybean and rapeseed arrival costs [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures closed higher due to the lower - than - expected planting area. The short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal is expected to move down with the market, and short - term caution is advised for rapeseed meal. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to factors such as ongoing Middle - East disputes, implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and the rise in international crude oil prices, vegetable oil prices are expected to follow the upward trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the US biodiesel policy has been implemented and the market is worried about the over - expected soybean planting area in the US, causing US soybeans to decline. It is advisable to gradually close out near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying opportunities in far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 30, due to the unresolved Middle - East disputes and Indonesia's formal implementation of the B50 plan, the vegetable oil sector rose collectively. For example, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8,714 yuan/ton, up 0.30% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 38,768 lots; the palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9,930 yuan/ton, up 1.66% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,265 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025 levels, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota allocated to large refineries from 50% to 70%. - Indonesia will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year. - On March 30, NYMEX crude oil futures closed higher, with the settlement price breaking through $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different production changes in different regions. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in regular diesel. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral state next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period in February. - As of the end of the 13th week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of three major edible oils was 2.0421 million tons, with different inventory changes for each type of oil [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the expansion of the Iran war and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil market is strong. Indonesia's implementation of the B50 plan drives up the Malaysian palm oil futures price. Domestically, the decrease in soybean oil inventory supports the futures market, but low market purchases lead to a stable basis. Palm oil follows the crude oil trend, and the B50 plan tightens the export expectation. Rapeseed oil fluctuates at a high level due to Middle - East uncertainties [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 30, the oil was strong and the meal was weak. The near - month contracts of double - meal oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts adjusted slightly. For example, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, with a 0% day - on - day change in closing price and a daily reduction of 56,190 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts have been adjusted downwards. - As of the end of the 13th week of 2026, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans, soybean meal, imported rapeseed, and imported rapeseed meal has changed to different extents [2][3]. - Provide spot prices, basis, and other information for soybean meal and rapeseed meal on March 30, as well as information on soybean crushing profit and soybean arrival cost [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy and concerns about over - expected soybean planting area in the US cause US soybeans to decline. Domestically, spot prices of oil mills are adjusted downwards, and the market purchase and sales slow down. The short - term view on Zhengzhou meal is weakly bearish [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close out near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying opportunities in far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating on the stronger side. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the export and price of new US soybeans. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the export data in January shows an increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9660, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10304, with a basis of 413, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 11000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high. - **Current Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,800, and the basis is 112. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, and the basis is -68. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,340, and the basis is 453. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish**: The edible oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term due to the game between weak current reality and strong long - term expectations, but the high domestic inventory may suppress the upward space [11]. - The corn price is in a high - level oscillation pattern, and market sentiment is affected by external markets and policy rumors. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy trends [11]. - The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to the contradiction between the support from oil mills and weak consumption [11]. - The live - pig market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - The egg price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - The cotton price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. - The caustic soda export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - The urea price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. - The precious metals prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - The copper and aluminum prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - The alumina supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - The ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - The lithium carbonate price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. - For options, trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,216.00 | 1,230.00 | -14.0 | -1.138% | | Coke | 1,740.50 | 1,761.00 | -20.50 | -1.164% | | Natural Rubber | 16,505.00 | 16,460.00 | 45.0 | 0.273% | | No. 20 Rubber | 13,690.00 | 13,635.00 | 55.0 | 0.403% | | Plastic | 8,800.00 | 8,767.00 | 33.0 | 0.376% | | Polypropylene (PP) | 9,208.00 | 9,120.00 | 88.0 | 0.965% | | PTA | 6,748.00 | 6,778.00 | -30.0 | -0.443% | | PVC | 5,613.00 | 5,650.00 | -37.0 | -0.655% | | Asphalt | 4,490.00 | 4,543.00 | -53.0 | -1.167% | | Methanol | 3,229.00 | 3,202.00 | 27.0 | 0.843% | | Ethylene Glycol | 5,109.00 | 5,058.00 | 51.0 | 1.008% | | Styrene | 10,343.00 | 10,046.00 | 297.0 | 2.956% | | Glass | 1,036.00 | 1,036.00 | 0 | 0 | | Crude Oil | 744.60 | 733.10 | 11.50 | - | | Fuel Oil | 4,445.00 | 4,393.00 | 52.0 | 1.184% | | Soda Ash | 1,227.00 | 1,225.00 | 2.0 | 0.163% | | Pulp | 5,170.00 | 5,156.00 | 14.0 | 0.272% | | LPG | 6,550.00 | 6,541.00 | 9.0 | 0.138% | | Caustic Soda | 2,469.00 | 2,509.00 | -40.0 | -1.594% | | PX | 9,738.00 | 9,774.00 | -36.0 | -0.368% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No. 1 | 4,591.00 | 4,627.00 | -36.0 | -0.778% | | Yellow Soybean No. 2 | 3,739.00 | 3,746.00 | -7.0 | -0.187% | | Soybean Meal | 2,937.00 | 2,952.00 | -15.0 | -0.508% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,319.00 | 2,344.00 | -25.0 | -1.067% | | Soybean Oil | 8,660.00 | 8,646.00 | 14.0 | 0.162% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,844.00 | 9,840.00 | 4.0 | 0.041% | | Palm Oil | 9,648.00 | 9,614.00 | 34.0 | 0.354% | | White Sugar | 5,441.00 | 5,463.00 | -22.0 | -0.403% | | Yellow Corn | 2,365.00 | 2,376.00 | -11.0 | -0.463% | | Corn Starch | 2,759.00 | 2,765.00 | -6.0 | -0.217% | | Cotton No. 1 | 15,355.00 | 15,420.00 | -65.0 | -0.422% | | Cotton Yarn | 21,495.00 | 21,640.00 | -145.0 | -0.670% | [4] 3.3 Macro - News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication [7]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Iran put forward four conditions for a cease - fire [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [9]. - 96 central departments publicly disclosed their 2026 budgets, and the "Three Public Expenses" budget decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the game between short - term supply pressure and long - term supply tightening expectations. The upper pressure is around 5500 yuan, and the lower support is around 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy. The lower support is in the 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton range [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The lower support is around 8000 yuan, and the upper pressure is the previous high [11]. - **Live - Pig**: The market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - **Ferroalloy**: The prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices are oscillating between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the trend of crude oil. Palm oil adjustment is basically in place, short - positions should exit, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils are oscillating at high levels [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 26, international crude oil stabilized, and vegetable oils stopped falling. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8,646 yuan/ton, up 1.12% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 9,356 lots. The second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8,588 yuan/ton, up 1.27% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 17,636 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9,614 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 5,170 lots. The second - main contract P2609 closed at 9,610 yuan/ton, up 1.05% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 14,286 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9,840 yuan/ton, up 1.37% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 1,527 lots. The second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9,738 yuan/ton, up 1.24% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 7,804 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 26, NYMEX crude oil futures rebounded, with the most actively traded May crude oil futures contract rising $4.16, or 4.61%, to settle at $94.48 per barrel [1]. - The market generally expects an announcement on biofuel mandatory blending targets on Friday [1]. - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate. Short - term production may decline due to plantation workers going home for Eid al - Fitr, but is expected to recover after the holiday [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister calls for more tests before increasing the current legally mandated 15% biodiesel blending ratio [1]. - The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, is expected to turn into ENSO neutral next month, and is likely to remain neutral from May - July 2026. El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency ITS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared to 1,022,673 tons in the same period of February. Exports to China were 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared to the previous month [1]. - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices, making palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices are oscillating at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be finalized, and the USDA quarterly report will be released at the end of the month. There are many uncertainties internationally, and the US soybean oil market is oscillating strongly at high levels. Malaysian palm oil stops falling and rebounds following international crude oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and it is rumored that there will be large - scale shutdowns at the end of March and early April. However, market demand is currently weak, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the trend of crude oil. If the Middle - East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, palm oil adjustment is basically in place, and new long - positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate strongly at high levels. The resistance level of Y2605 is 9,300, and the support level is 8,048; the resistance level of Y2609 is 9,700, and the support level is 8,054; the resistance level of P2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,776; the resistance level of P2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 8,710; the resistance level of OI2605 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,212; the resistance level of OI2609 is 12,000, and the support level is 9,180 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 26, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal prices were under pressure. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, up 0.68% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 57,311 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3,030 yuan/ton, up 0.76% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 48,167 lots; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, up 0.21% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily reduction of 11,590 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2,422 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day in closing price and with a daily increase of 8,687 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA in February [2]. - Patria AgroNegocios reports that the soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons. Brazil's soybean meal exports in March are expected to reach 2.44 million tons, also lower than last week's forecast of 2.66 million tons [3]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week's 5.8215 million tons. The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, and US soybeans are boosted. Affected by the low - level consolidation of external futures prices and the cooling of capital sentiment, and with the resumption of normal shipping in Brazil after continuous communication between the Chinese and Brazilian agricultural departments, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal focuses on the support at the 2,900 yuan/ton mark. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreases by 20 - 60 yuan/ton with the market. The near - month basis is temporarily stable. As the traditional shutdown season approaches, oil mills maintain their price - support sentiment. However, the breeding industry is suffering serious losses, and the market purchasing and sales slow down. The spot price in East China has partially fallen below 3,200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price center will move down with the market, and attention should be paid to the shutdown rhythm of manufacturers. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly viewed in the short - term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2,350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted narrowly. Overall, near - month short - positions should gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For double - meal, near - month short - positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. The resistance level of M2605 is 3,278, and the support level is 2,710; the resistance level of M2607 is 3,000, and the support level is 2,680; the resistance level of M2509 is 3,200, and the support level is 2,833; the resistance level of RM2605 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,220; the resistance level of RM2607 is 2,560, and the support level is 2,200; the resistance level of RM2609 is 2,600, and the support level is 2,274 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the uncertain Middle - East situation, international crude oil prices oscillate between 80 - 100. Vegetable oils follow the crude oil trend. Palm oil adjustment is almost in place, short positions can be closed, and new long positions can be slightly added. Soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate at high levels [1][2] - For double - meal products, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, which boosts US soybeans. In the short - term, the main contract of continuous meal should focus on the support at the 2900 yuan/ton mark. Near - month short positions of double - meal can gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - **Three Oils**: On March 25th, due to the US announcing armistice conditions, international crude oil was under pressure and declined. Vegetable oils were under pressure at high levels. Palm oil had a large decline, while soybean and rapeseed oils oscillated at high levels. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8550 yuan/ton, down 0.51% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 24,534 lots [1] - **Two Meals**: On March 25th, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, causing double - meal prices to decline under pressure. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 24,152 lots [2] 3.2重要资讯 - **Three Oils** - On Wednesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures fell by more than 2%, and the May crude oil futures contract fell by $2.03, settling at $90.32 per barrel [1] - The market generally expects an announcement on the biofuel mandatory blending target on Friday [1] - A study shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate [1] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) suggests that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel [1] - The US National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reports that La Nina is still ongoing, and it is expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, with El Nino likely to form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1] - The shipping survey agency SGS shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20th were 889,128 tons, a 61.0% increase compared to February 1 - 20th [1] - Due to the ongoing Middle - East war, supply concerns drive up crude oil prices. Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [2] - As of the weekend of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three domestic edible oils was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a 9.31% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Two Meals** - AgMarket.net predicts that the US soybean planting area in spring this year will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast [2] - Patria AgroNegocios reports that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate has reached 65.79%, behind last year's 73.84% but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [3] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March will be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast, and the soybean meal exports will be 2.44 million tons, also lower than the previous forecast [3] - As of the weekend of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from last week [3] 3.3市场逻辑 - **Three Oils**: Externally, the Middle - East situation is uncertain, international crude oil prices oscillate at high levels, the US biodiesel policy is about to be implemented, and there are still many uncertainties internationally. Domestically, soybean oil mills are shutting down one after another, and the market demand is weak. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend, and rapeseed oil oscillates at high levels [2] - **Two Meals**: Externally, the US biodiesel policy will be clear on Friday, which boosts US soybeans. Domestically, the spot price of oil mills decreases with the market, the traditional shutdown period is approaching, but the aquaculture industry is in serious losses, and the market trading slows down [3] 3.4交易策略 - **Three Oils**: For single - side trading, new long positions of palm oil can be slightly added, and soybean and rapeseed oils oscillate at high levels. For example, the pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048 [2] - **Two Meals**: Near - month short positions of double - meal can gradually take profits, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment. For example, the pressure level of the M2605 contract is 3278, and the support level is 2710 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose by 0.08%. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 4.49%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.33%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.39%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.57%. Among the theme indices, only the Economic Crops Index rose by 0.07%, while the rest of the theme indices declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -2.59%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.64%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Silver index had the largest increase of 6.01% [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - **Composite Index (NHCl)**: Today's close was 3052.19, up 0.08% from yesterday's close of 3049.76, with an annualized volatility of 20.70% and an annualized return of 15.18%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.36 [3]. - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Rose by 4.49%, with today's close at 1962.51 and yesterday's close at 1878.15, an annualized volatility of 76.38%, an annualized return of 35.58%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.15 [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (MHII)**: Today's close was 4181.97, down -0.74% from yesterday's close of 4213.15, with an annualized volatility of 11.92% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.70 [3]. - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Rose by 0.33%, with an annualized volatility of 10.85%, an annualized return of 14.49%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.75 [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Today's close was 2030.46, down -1.39% from yesterday's close of 2059.14, with an annualized volatility of 15.52%, an annualized return of 23.41%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.66 [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF)**: Rose by 1.20%, with today's close at 2001.26 and yesterday's close at 1977.61, and an annualized volatility of 17.05%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Today's close was 2609.33, down -0.74% from yesterday's close of 2631.96, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.05 [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Today's close was 1080.40, down -0.57% from yesterday's close of 1086.56, with an annualized volatility of 7.92%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.01 [3]. - **Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi)**: Today's close was 1411.71, down -0.64% from yesterday's close of 1420.75, with an annualized volatility of 7.51%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.28 [3]. - **Energy Index (NHEl)**: Today's close was 1483.41, down -2.59% from yesterday's close of 1522.90, with an annualized volatility of 16.96%, an annualized return of 61.34%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.28 [3]. - **Petrochemical Index (NHPCl)**: Today's close was 1228.82, down -1.08% from yesterday's close of 1242.20, with an annualized volatility of 37.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.31 [3]. - **Explosive Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Today's close was 1220.54, down -1.64% from yesterday's close of 1240.94, with an annualized volatility of 10.31%, an annualized return of 38.45%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.27 [3]. - **Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM)**: Today's close was 1106.52, down -1.44% from yesterday's close of 1122.65, with an annualized volatility of 0.54%, an annualized return of 16.35%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03 [3]. - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Rose by 0.54%, with today's close at 714.30 and yesterday's close at 720.43, down -0.85%, with an annualized volatility of 14.34%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.04 [3]. - **Oil and Fat Index (NHOOl)**: Today's close was 1306.72, down -0.95% from yesterday's close of 1319.22, with an annualized volatility of 2.40%, an annualized return of 15.44%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.16 [3]. - **Economic Crops Index (NHAECI)**: Rose by 0.07%, with today's close at 970.38 and yesterday's close at 969.71 [3]. 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - For the Nanhua Composite Index, positive - contributing varieties included Gold (30.38%), Natural Rubber (3.97%), etc., and negative - contributing varieties included Natural Rubber (-7.43%), Palm Oil (-2.59%), etc. [3]. - For the Nanhua Mini Composite Index, positive - contributing varieties included Gold (20.52%), and negative - contributing varieties included Stainless Steel (-16.85%) [3]. - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, positive - contributing varieties included Carbonate Lithium (10.28%), and negative - contributing varieties included Iron Ore (-37.84%) [3]. - For the Nanhua Metal Index, positive - contributing varieties included Aluminum (4.42%), and negative - contributing varieties included Iron Ore (-1.97) [3]. - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, positive - contributing varieties included Butadiene Rubber (5.67%), and negative - contributing varieties included Polypropylene (-6.97%) [3]. - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, positive - contributing varieties included Cotton (8.41%), and negative - contributing varieties included Rapeseed Oil (-5.52%) [3]. 3.3 Single - Variety Index Daily Change Rate in Different Sectors - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Glass rose by 0.33%, Synthetic Ammonia rose by 0.69%, Urea rose by 0.02%, Liquid Oxygen Element rose by 2.52%, LLDPE (Polyethylene) fell by -2.21%, Natural Rubber rose by 1.66%, Olefins rose by 5.27%, 20 - number Rubber rose by 1.94%, Naphtha rose by 1.68%, and Coal rose by 1.98% [3][4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Palm Oil fell by -1.34%, Rapeseed Oil fell by -1.04%, Rapeseed fell by -2.94%, Rapeseed Meal fell by -1.08%, and Pig fell by -0.41% [6]. - **Black Sector**: PTA fell by -5.01%, Fuel Oil fell by -5.01% [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are pressured by crude oil trends and may test the support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment, seeking support at 9,500 yuan, with a chance of a weak rebound but continued downward pressure [1]. - CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is favorable. In China, if the zero - tolerance policy for Brazilian soybeans is relaxed, soybean supply will increase, dragging down the spot basis [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy and the development of the Middle East conflict. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis fluctuates within 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by a stronger US dollar and inflation concerns. US cotton production is expected to be around 3.05 million tons. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 65 - 70 cents/pound. In China, the cotton price may also oscillate widely due to the balance of long - and short - term factors [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reach a five - month high, supported by energy prices. Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the preference for ethanol production. Indian sugar production is approaching the end of the season. Short - term raw sugar is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. In China, sugar imports in January - February exceed expectations. The spot market has weak sales but stable prices, and the futures market is strong but limited by weak production and sales in February and increased industrial inventory [4]. Red Dates - Affected by macro funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market rebounds slightly from the low - valuation range, but the upside is limited by weak market conditions. In the off - season, the consumption end is weak, inventory reduction is slow, and the number of futures warehouse receipts registered is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6]. Apples - The apple spot market shows a more obvious structural differentiation. Good - quality apples have a better trading atmosphere, while ordinary apples in Shandong have inventory pressure. The national apple cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [11]. Corn and Corn Starch - The supply and demand of corn in the Northeast and North China are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. The demand from deep - processing enterprises exists, but feed enterprises' demand for high - priced corn is average, and wheat substitution is increasing. Policy wheat auctions may squeeze corn demand. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [14]. Meal - The US soybean futures are oscillating around 1,160 cents, with mixed long - and short factors. The domestic soybean meal market has fully priced in concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The concern about delayed arrivals of Brazilian soybeans is easing, and the spot market is weak. Short - term inventory is expected to be tight, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [16]. Pigs - The futures and spot prices of pigs continue to decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The large number of pig sales, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. In the off - season, downstream procurement recovers slowly, and the increase in slaughter volume has limited impact. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage. The price may stop falling after breaking 10,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price is expected to continue to bottom out [18]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled chickens is high and shows a downward trend, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly but is still at a relatively low level. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure is not large this week. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, but the supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The terminal demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with decreases of 16.22%, 59.26%, and 9.24% respectively. The spot and futures prices of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 100% to 0 [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, while the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 33.33%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.07%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, while the valid forecast increased by 22.06% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The spreads between 3128B and futures contracts and between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% all increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, the bonded area inventory increased by 9.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 0.3%, the spinning enterprise's processing profit decreased by 4.8%, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 7.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textiles decreased by 82.9%, and the export volume of textile yarns and clothing decreased [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased by 0.44% and 0.40% respectively, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.90%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.77%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the valid forecast increased from 0 to 520 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales nationwide and in Guangxi decreased, the sugar sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased significantly [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, and the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads also increased. The open interest increased by 0.41%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the valid forecast increased by 45.98%, and the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 1.87% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.71%, the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.09%, the basis decreased by 6.35%, the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 4.25%, the open interest decreased by 10.12%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 6.26% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at some fruit wholesale markets increased [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 1.33%, the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.21%, the basis increased by 370.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 61.54%, the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit increased by 35.71%, the Brazilian CIF duty - paid price decreased by 0.76%, the import profit increased by 14.08%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 19.09%, the open interest decreased by 1.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 1.18%, the average price of corn starch decreased by 0.13%, the basis increased by 16.48%, the Weifang spot price decreased by 0.33%, the Changchun spot price remained unchanged, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 150.00%, the 05 spread between starch and corn decreased by 0.26%, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged, the open interest decreased by 2.06%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.90%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.73%, the basis decreased by 2.49%, the spot basis quote remained unchanged, the Brazilian May shipment basis import crushing profit decreased by 5.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.6% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.12%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.99%, the basis decreased by 2.43%, the Canadian July shipment basis import crushing profit increased by 400.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [16]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.83%, the basis increased by 9.76%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract 2 remained unchanged, the basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% [16]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the ratio of soybean to rapeseed meal in the spot market increased by 0.68%, the ratio of oil to meal in the main contract decreased by 0.14%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spreads in the spot market and 2605 contract remained basically unchanged [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 36.36%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.65%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 3.23%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 53.68%, the main contract open interest increased by 2.41%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in various regions decreased to different degrees, and the slaughter rate decreased by 0.47%, the white - strip price, piglet price, and sow price remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.05%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 5.13%, the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 19.72%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.73% [18]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 0.66% and 1.22% respectively, the basis increased by 27.56%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 18.35% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price increased by 2.86%, the culled - chicken price increased by 1.25%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.24%, and the breeding profit increased by 9.98% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, the international crude oil price is under pressure after the US announced the armistice conditions, but it is still oscillating at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, and US soybean oil is oscillating at a high level. Malaysian palm oil follows the international crude oil price and oscillates at a high level. In the domestic market, the factory operating rate will continue to decline, and soybean oil production will decrease. It is the traditional off - season for demand, with both long and short factors coexisting. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend. The mid - term palm oil is still supported above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and new long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have intensified high - level oscillations, mainly following the palm oil trend. For medium - and long - term investors, the price decline caused by the TACO event presents a new buying opportunity, and they should maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the US announced 15 armistice terms, and the international crude oil price cooled down, putting pressure on US soybeans. For soybean meal, affected by the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions gradually shifted positions to the 2609 contract. The 5 - 9 spread widened to - 60. The news of China's customs relaxing the inspection procedures for Brazil is questionable, and combined with the strong Brazilian premium, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal should focus on the support in the range of 2900 - 2950 yuan. For rapeseed meal, affected by the high - level correction of crude oil prices and the accelerated position shifting, the sentiment in the protein meal market is under pressure. The negotiation result of the soybean inspection rules between Brazil and China is still unclear, and the market is waiting for the detailed rules of biodiesel at the end of the month. The shutdown wave of domestic soybean oil mills is coming, which supports the spot and futures markets. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly bearish in the short term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2350 yuan. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - **Vegetable Oils**: On March 25, after the US announced the armistice conditions, international crude oil was under pressure and declined. Vegetable oils were under pressure at high levels. Palm oil had a large decline, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil oscillated at high levels. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8594 yuan/ton, down 1.67% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 32,990 lots; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8532 yuan/ton, down 1.55% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 945 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9644 yuan/ton, down 3% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 27,567 lots; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 9622 yuan/ton, up 2.69% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 10,373 lots. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9813 yuan/ton, down 1.38% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 14,079 lots; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9705 yuan/ton, down 1.28% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 692 lots [1]. - **Double - meal**: On March 24, China relaxed the inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans, and double - meal was under pressure and declined. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2961 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 87,521 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 3022 yuan/ton, down 0.92% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 14,452 lots. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2365 yuan/ton, down 1.42% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1407 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,382 lots [2]. 3.2重要资讯 - **Vegetable Oils**: - On Tuesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures soared. The largest - scale crude oil supply disruption in history continued, and the US - Iran talks were in a "Rashomon" situation. The May crude oil futures contract rose $4.22, or 4.79%, to settle at $92.35 per barrel [1]. - On March 20 (Friday), a study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, and the reduction from the previous estimate is less than 1%. Although the overall production situation remains stable, it may decline in the short term because plantation workers return home for the Eid al - Fitr festival. Once the workers return to work after the holiday and the harvesting operations return to normal, the crop yield is expected to recover [1]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) said on Thursday that the Brazilian government should allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. The Brazilian energy minister called for more tests before increasing the currently legally mandatory 15% biodiesel (made from products such as soybeans and tallow) mixing ratio [1]. - On March 19 (Thursday), the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released a report. According to the current ocean and atmospheric monitoring data, the La Nina phenomenon is still continuing. It is expected to change from La Nina to the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state next month, and it is likely to remain in the neutral state from May to July 2026. The CPC said that the El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last at least until the end of 2026 [1]. - The shipping survey agency SGS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 889,128 tons, an increase of 61.0% compared with 552,196 tons exported from February 1 - 20. Exports to China were 57,600 tons, an increase of 8200 tons compared with 49,500 tons in the same period last month [1]. - Since there is no sign of the end of the Middle East war, supply concerns have pushed up the crude oil price. The strong crude oil futures make palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material. Industry officials said that Indian vegetable oil refineries are reducing their purchases of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil [1][2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 990,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%; the edible palm oil inventory was 748,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.75%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 295,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 66.81% [2]. - As of March 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8940 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 346 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 126 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the basis was 156 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 178 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 667.11 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the basis was 567 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton [2]. - As of March 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.9 [2]. - **Double - meal**: - AgMarket.net company: It is expected that the US soybean planting area this spring will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the US Department of Agriculture in February [2]. - Consulting company Patria AgroNegocios: The soybean harvest rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.79%, behind the 73.84% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [2]. - Economic officials of the US and China held an "abnormally stable" talk on agricultural trade issues in Paris on the 15th. China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [2]. - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons compared with 5.8215 million tons last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 3.4092 million tons, and the five - week average was 5.9718 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons compared with 623,500 tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%; the contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons compared with 4.8823 million tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared with 20,000 tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%; the contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons compared with 76,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3]. - As of March 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3352 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 23,000 tons. The basis of soybean meal was 3303 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 41 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 54,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 339 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2382 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 42 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [3]. - The US soybean April futures crushing margin was - 363 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was - 38 yuan/ton; the Brazilian April futures crushing margin was - 4 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was 321 yuan/ton [3]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf April shipment to Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4155 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian April shipment to Zhangjiagang was 3834 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf April shipment was $525/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian April shipment was $483/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian April shipment was $586/ton; the arrival cost of April - shipment rapeseed at Guangzhou Port was 5111 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3市场逻辑 - **Vegetable Oils**: In the external market, after the US announced 15 armistice terms, international oil prices were under pressure but still oscillated at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, and US soybean oil oscillates at a high level. Malaysian palm oil follows the international crude oil price and oscillates at a high level. In the domestic market, the factory operating rate will continue to decline, and soybean oil production will decrease. It is the traditional off - season for demand, with both long and short factors coexisting. Today's basis quotes are stable, having little impact on futures. Palm oil mainly follows the crude oil trend. If the Middle East dispute cannot be effectively resolved, international oil prices will remain strong. Overall, the overnight commodity market was affected by the TACO transaction, and prices fluctuated sharply in the short term. Palm oil was under pressure and fell significantly, but in the medium term, it is still supported above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. New long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have intensified high - level oscillations, mainly following the palm oil trend [2]. - **Double - meal**: In the external market, the US announced 15 armistice terms, and international crude oil prices cooled down, putting pressure on US soybeans. For soybean meal, affected by the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions gradually shifted positions to the 2609 contract. The 5 - 9 spread widened to - 60. The news of China's customs relaxing the inspection procedures for Brazil is questionable, and combined with the strong Brazilian premium, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal should focus on the support in the range of 2900 - 2950 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 40 yuan with the market, and the near - month basis remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas. For rapeseed meal, affected by the high - level correction of crude oil prices and the accelerated position shifting, the sentiment in the protein meal market is under pressure. The negotiation result of the soybean inspection rules between Brazil and China is still unclear, and the market is waiting for the detailed rules of biodiesel at the end of the month. The shutdown wave of domestic soybean oil mills is coming, which supports the spot and futures markets. After Zhengzhou rapeseed meal breaks through the integer mark, it is weakly bearish in the short term, and the support is temporarily seen at 2350 yuan. In the spot market, market transactions are relatively limited, and end - users mainly make purchases based on rigid demand. The basis quotes in each region are adjusted within a narrow range. Overall, near - month short positions should be gradually closed, and wait for new buying opportunities for far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3.4交易策略 - **Vegetable Oils**: For the price decline caused by the TACO event, for medium - and long - term investors, vegetable oils present a new buying opportunity. They should maintain a bullish view in the medium and long term and buy on dips. The pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048; the pressure level of the Y2609 contract is 9700, and the support level is 8054; the pressure level of the P2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8776; the pressure level of the P2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8710; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9212; the pressure level of the OI2609 contract is 12,000