Global Research ab 20 August 2025 Global Tobacco China Vapour Exports to July'25 Our monthly vapour volume export tracker, using data from China Customs, helps monitor the progress of the vapour category. Most vapour products are manufactured in China, including those by non-tobacco (that have a UBSe >85% category share) and tobacco manufacturers. In 2024, UBS Tobacco Transformation Model estimates vapour retail sales growth of c+20% (to $46bn) and equivalised volumes of c+25% (to c8% of total nicotine). NB ...

Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir Technologies specializes in artificial intelligence (AI) software and has shown remarkable performance, with an average annual gain of 165% over the past three years and a 385% increase over the past year [3][4] - Despite its impressive returns, the company's valuation is considered high, making it a risky buy at the moment, although existing shareholders may consider holding or partially selling to lock in gains [4] - The company has significant ties to the U.S. military and has been favored by the Trump administration, which may influence its business operations [5] Group 2: DoorDash - DoorDash has averaged annual gains of 56% over the past three years and operates in approximately 30 countries [6][7] - The company reported a 20% year-over-year increase in total orders, reaching 761 million, and a 25% rise in revenue in its second-quarter earnings report [7] - Management highlighted improvements in consumer experience and delivery times, contributing to accelerated growth in monthly active users [7] Group 3: Nvidia - Nvidia has averaged annual gains of 71% over the past five years and 77% over the past decade, with a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39, which aligns with its five-year average [8][9] - The company has expanded its focus beyond gaming chips to include AI and data center chips, capitalizing on the growing demand for AI technologies [9] Group 4: Altria Group - Altria has increased by approximately 37% over the past year and offers a dividend yield of 6.1%, with total annual payouts rising from $2.17 in 2015 to $4.08 recently [10][11] - The company is investing in smokeless products to offset declining smoking rates in the U.S., while successfully raising prices for its offerings [11] Group 5: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the largest chip maker globally, holding a market share of 67.6%, and is unique for manufacturing chips rather than just designing them [11][12] - The company anticipates its AI accelerator revenue to double within the year, reflecting significant growth potential in the semiconductor industry [12]

Core Insights - The Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF (SCHY) is a passively managed fund aimed at tracking the Dow Jones International Dividend 100 Index, providing low-cost, income-oriented international exposure with a 3.72% dividend yield [2][3][10] Fund Overview - SCHY was launched on April 29, 2021, by Charles Schwab, with an expense ratio of 8 basis points and approximately $1.3 billion in assets under management (AUM) [3][15] - The fund has an average daily trading volume of 364,000 shares, indicating minimal spread risk for investors [3] - SCHY is fully invested in international equities, comprising 103 holdings, primarily mid- to large-cap stocks [7] Performance Metrics - Cumulative returns for SCHY show a year-to-date increase of 18.60% and a one-year return of 12.14% [4] - The fund's annualized return since inception is 5.57%, which is lower compared to peer strategies [4][15] Index and Stock Selection - SCHY is indexed to the Dow Jones International Dividend 100 Index, which includes mid- and large-cap international dividend-paying companies, excluding REITs [5] - The stock screening process involves evaluating fundamental qualities such as free cash flow, return on equity, indicated dividend yield, and 5-year dividend growth rate [5][14] Portfolio Composition - The top three country exposures in SCHY are the UK (15.36%), Australia (12%), and France (11.65%) [7] - The portfolio is heavily weighted towards financials (15%) and consumer staples (14.84%) [7] - The top 10 holdings account for 40% of the total portfolio weight, with British American Tobacco, Wesfarmers, and BHP Group being the largest positions [8] Distribution and Income Strategy - SCHY pays a quarterly distribution rate of $1.05 per share, yielding 3.72% on a trailing twelve-month basis, and has shown annual growth in distributions since inception [10][12] - The fund is suitable for passive income strategies and can be beneficial for tax-deferred accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s [12] Competitive Landscape - SCHY is noted as the lowest-cost strategy among its peers, with a significant AUM of $1.3 billion, although it has underperformed compared to other international dividend income strategies [15] - The Global X MSCI SuperDividend EAFE ETF (EFAS) is highlighted as a top-performing peer, despite its smaller AUM of $30 million [16]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging Growth Research released a quarterly update report on 22nd Century Group, indicating that the company missed expectations for Q2 2025 due to slower CMO stabilization and VLN® rollout timing, with EBITDA breakeven now projected for Q2 2026 [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was $4.1 million, a decline of 49% year-over-year from $7.9 million in Q2 2024 and a 31% sequential decrease from $6.0 million in Q1 2025 [8]. - Gross loss remained stable at $(0.6) million compared to $(0.6) million in Q1 2025 [8]. - Operating loss increased to $(3.0) million from $(2.6) million in Q1 2025 due to higher VLN® promotional spending [8]. - EBITDA was $(2.8) million compared to $(2.5) million in Q1 2025 [8]. - Net debt was significantly reduced to $0.7 million from $3.3 million in Q4 2024 following a warrant exercise that generated $5.1 million in proceeds [4][8]. Strategic Focus and Growth Potential - The company is focusing on higher-margin operations and has significant long-term growth potential, with revenue growth expectations of +127% in 2026, +68% in 2027, and +39% in 2028 driven by VLN® market penetration in the $12 billion tobacco market [5][3]. - VLN® cigarettes are now shipping following state registrations, with management noting that only 223,000 cartons (5% of production capacity) are needed for breakeven profitability [4]. Management and Restructuring - New management has undertaken operational restructuring since 2023, divesting certain business lines to concentrate on contract manufacturing operations (CMO) and the VLN® product line [9]. - The company is positioned as a pure-play contract manufacturer for combustible tobacco products and the sole provider of VLN® reduced-nicotine cigarettes [9].

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is relying on its pricing strategy to mitigate the decline in cigarette volumes, with a 10.2% drop in domestic cigarette shipment volume for Q2 2025 and an 11.9% decline for the first half of the year [1][7] - Despite the volume decline, the adjusted operating companies income (OCI) for the smokeable products segment increased by 4.2% in Q2 and 3.5% for the first half, attributed to strong net price realization of 10% for Q2 and 10.4% for the first half [2][7] - The company's pricing power reflects brand loyalty and a strategic focus on maximizing revenue per unit sold, which is crucial for maintaining financial health in a challenging market [3] Industry Comparison - Philip Morris International Inc. reported organic net revenue growth of 6.8% and organic adjusted operating income growth of 14.9% in Q2 2025, driven by higher combustible pricing and modest smoke-free gains [4] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. is shifting focus to high-growth product categories, with Modern Oral nicotine pouch revenues increasing nearly eightfold year over year, supported by significant investments in sales and marketing [5] Financial Performance - Altria's shares have increased by 13.3% over the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 8.6% [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.33X, lower than the industry average of 15.78X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share has risen by 2 cents for both 2025 and 2026, now at $5.39 and $5.55 respectively [9]

Key Takeaways Altria reached a new 52-week high of $67.87, rising nearly 15% over the past month.EPS grew 8.3% in Q2 2025 to $1.44, aided by pricing, efficiencies, and share repurchases.on! nicotine pouches surged 26.5% in shipments, lifting oral tobacco income and margins.Altria Group, Inc. (MO) hit a new 52-week high of $67.87 yesterday, a significant milestone that has caught investors’ attention. The company’s strong earnings, growth in oral tobacco, and shareholder returns have set a positive tone for ...

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Philip Morris (PM) . Shares have added about 5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500. Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Philip Morris due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Philip Morris Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, FY25 EPS View ...

Retirement is complicated, and you only get one chance to do it right. Don't miss out because you didn't know what was out there. The Retirement Forum provides actionable ideals, a high-yield, safe retirement portfolio, and macroeconomic outlooks, all to help you maximize your capital and your income. We search the entire market to help you maximize returns. Philip Morris (NYSE: PM ) is a more than $250 billion company, the largest publicly traded "sin" stock in the world. The company has dramatically outpe ...

Summary of 22nd Century Group (XXII) Conference Call - August 20, 2025 Company Overview - **Company Name**: 22nd Century Group Inc. - **Ticker Symbol**: XXII - **Industry**: Tobacco, specifically focused on nicotine harm reduction - **Market Position**: Leader in the tobacco harm reduction movement since 1998, aligned with FDA's low nicotine mandate [1][2][3] Key Industry Insights - **Tobacco Market Size**: - Global market: $1.1 trillion in annual sales, with $873 billion from cigarette sales [4] - U.S. market: $109 billion in annual sales, with $83 billion from cigarette sales [4] - **Smoker Statistics**: - 1.1 billion smokers globally, with 28.8 million in the U.S. [4] - 8 million annual deaths globally due to smoking-related health conditions [4] - U.S. smoking-related deaths: approximately 480,000 annually [4] - **Market Growth**: U.S. tobacco industry projected to grow to $180 billion by 2030, representing an 8.15% CAGR [5] Core Company Strategies - **Product Focus**: - Emphasis on low nicotine (VLN) products, which are positioned to compete with traditional combustible cigarettes and other nicotine delivery systems [11][12] - Development of a diverse portfolio including VLN cigarettes, moist snuff, and other tobacco products [26] - **Regulatory Alignment**: - Fully compliant with FDA's proposed rule for low nicotine content (0.7 mg/g), which is expected to significantly reduce nicotine addiction [14][42] - **Research and Development**: - Ongoing research into non-GMO low nicotine tobacco and its potential to lower harmful nitrosamines [16][30] - Independent studies showing that 40% of participants reduced their smoking habits using VLN products [17] Financial Strategy and Performance - **Shift in Business Model**: - Transitioning away from high-volume, low-margin contract manufacturing to focus on branded products [25][31] - Anticipated lower revenues in the short term as the company prioritizes gross profit and margins [25] - **Future Financial Goals**: - Targeting cash flow breakeven by 2026 [48] - Maintaining operating expenses around $2 million per quarter [31] Market Launch and Distribution - **Product Launch**: - VLN products are set to launch in 2,000 retail outlets across 30 states, with plans for nationwide distribution [27][39] - Marketing strategies include extensive consumer communication and in-store promotions [22] - **Retail Partnerships**: - Engaging with major retailers for broader distribution once state approvals are secured [39][28] Additional Insights - **Public Health Concerns**: - Addressing issues of nicotine addiction and the impact of smoking on public health, particularly among youth [6][8] - **Industry Dynamics**: - The company positions itself as a leader in the transition towards reduced nicotine products, similar to the shift from leaded to unleaded gasoline [47] - **Government Support**: - No direct government funding anticipated; the company relies on independent research to validate its products [37][38] Conclusion - **Outlook**: - The company is optimistic about its future, focusing on growth in the VLN segment and aligning with regulatory changes to capture market share [32][50]

Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International Inc. is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 20.93X, which is significantly higher than the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 15.31X and the broader Consumer Staples sector average of 17.14X, raising questions about whether the growth justifies this premium [1][2][4]. Valuation and Performance - Philip Morris trades at a forward P/E of 20.93X, above industry and sector averages, indicating a premium valuation [7]. - Recent performance shows PM shares fell 6.4% over the past month, contrasting with gains in the Zacks Tobacco industry and the S&P 500, which advanced 0.6% and 2.5% respectively [5][4]. - Major competitors like Altria and British American Tobacco have lower forward P/E ratios of 12.12X and 11.88X, while Turning Point Brands trades at a higher multiple of 24.02X [4]. Revenue and Growth - Smoke-free products accounted for 41% of revenues in Q2, growing 15.2% year-over-year, driven by IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [7][18]. - Despite volume declines in traditional cigarettes, PM's combustible net revenues grew 2.1% in Q2, supported by price increases [19]. - Management projects a 2% full-year decline in cigarette volume, with a sharper 3-4% drop expected in the second half [15]. Cost Efficiency and Earnings Guidance - The company achieved over $500 million in gross cost savings in the first half of the year and aims for $2 billion in efficiencies between 2024 and 2026 [20]. - Adjusted earnings per share for the last quarter were reported at $1.91, up 20% year-over-year, although impacted by currency volatility [17]. - Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, indicating 13-15% growth [21]. Market Sentiment and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions, with current estimates at $7.50 for the current year and $8.39 for the next year, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 14.2% and 11.9% respectively [22]. - Despite challenges, the raised EPS outlook and upward estimate revisions indicate confidence in sustained earnings growth [24].