U.S.–Mexico cross-border freight is poised to remain a stabilizing force in North American logistics in 2026, according to executives at Uber Freight. In an interview with FreightWaves, Mazen Danaf, senior economist at Uber Freight, and José Guerrero, head of U.S. customs operations, said even as broader U.S. trucking markets grapple with thin margins, tariff uncertainty and unpredictable economic crosscurrents — sustained cross-border demand is reshaping how shippers and carriers should prepare for the y ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index rose 17.9% in 2025, while the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index increased by 7.3% [3] - The average investor experienced a positive sentiment driven by expectations of AI advancements and Federal Reserve easing [3] - Despite overall market gains, nearly half of U.S. stocks were down, with the bottom fifth of stocks in the Russell 3000 experiencing a median loss of 40% [18] Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with healthcare spending and construction of new AI data centers contributing significantly to this growth [17] - The Federal Reserve's policies have led to a financial system reliant on permanent liquidity, raising concerns about long-term inflation and economic inequality [10][13] Fund Performance - The Palm Valley Capital Fund achieved a total return of 4.46% in 2025, underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600 and Morningstar SmallCap benchmarks, which gained 6.02% and 12.20% respectively [32] - The Fund's equity positions increased by 1.12% over the last quarter, benefiting from exposure to precious metals [31] Investment Opportunities - New positions were added in Domino's Pizza Group, Utz Brands, and Ingredion, with each company showing potential for growth despite current challenges [33][36][39] - Domino's holds a significant market share in the UK pizza delivery market but faces growth challenges due to a pressured consumer environment [34] - Utz Brands is well-positioned with strong free cash flow potential and improving margins, trading at approximately 12x estimated free cash flow [37] - Ingredion is focusing on modified ingredients to address wellness trends and has improved its balance sheet, trading at 10x earnings [39] Market Trends - The "Visine effect" suggests that underperforming stocks are often discarded without sensitivity to price, impacting smaller companies more significantly [21] - The rise of passive investing has altered market dynamics, leading to concentrated buying and selling pressures during rebalancing periods [21] - Despite a strong year for equities, many small caps remain fully valued, with the average profitable non-financial member of the Russell 2000 trading at an enterprise value to operating profit of 18x [26]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Transportation Average has risen as much as 1.7% to 17,836.01 points, setting a record and surpassing its previous closing high from November 2024 [1] - The rebound in transportation stocks follows a long slump caused by global trade turmoil and tariffs that affected demand for goods shipments [2][5] - The US economy showed unexpected growth in Q3 2025, contributing to the positive performance of transportation stocks [3] Group 2: Sector Rotation and Economic Outlook - There has been a rotation from fully valued technology stocks to overlooked sectors like transportation, driven by an optimistic growth outlook for consumer demand in 2026 [3] - Analysts expect increased global oil supply from renewed Venezuelan production, which could lead to lower jet fuel costs and improved earnings for airlines [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. was a standout performer, surging 56% due to its use of artificial intelligence to reduce costs [4] - Norfolk Southern Corp. benefited from its planned tie-up with Union Pacific Corp., contributing to its positive performance [4] - Despite overall gains, United Parcel Service Inc. shares fell 21% last year due to tariffs and reduced business with Amazon.com Inc. [5]

Chart of the Week:  SONAR Tender Lead Time Index – USA SONAR: STLT.USA Seasonality View Shipper tender lead times for requesting truckload capacity increased 7.3% to 3.63 days in 2025, up from 3.38 days in 2024. This represents a 39% increase over the average lead time in 2019 and marks the sixth consecutive year in which shippers have given carriers more time to cover contracted loads. While truckload tender lead times may not be a headline statistic, they are a strong indicator that shippers have improv ...

Core Viewpoint - Old Dominion Freight Line is experiencing a decline in earnings relative to revenue due to increased operating expenses and a prolonged slump in freight volumes, leading to questions about the timing of a potential recovery in the freight market [1][3][13]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Old Dominion's total revenue decreased to approximately $1.41 billion, a decline of 4.3% year over year, with net income and diluted earnings per share falling by 10.5% to $1.28 [2]. - The company's operating ratio rose to 74.3% from 72.7% a year earlier, attributed to "deleveraging" as costs did not decrease in line with falling volumes [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was about $437.5 million, totaling around $1.1 billion for the first nine months of 2025 [9]. Market Position and Strategy - Old Dominion is a leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in North America, known for exceptional service and disciplined pricing, which has helped it gain market share during economic booms [4][3]. - The company maintains excess capacity during downturns to quickly capitalize on market share when volumes recover, although this strategy has led to significant negative impacts during the current freight recession [3][4]. Volume and Pricing Trends - LTL tons per day fell by 9% in Q3, reflecting a 7.9% decline in shipments per day and a 1.2% decline in weight per shipment, while LTL revenue per hundredweight (excluding fuel surcharges) increased by 4.7% [5]. - A November 2025 update indicated a continued decline in revenue per day by 4.4% year over year, driven by a 10% drop in LTL tons shipped per day [6]. Capital Returns and Investments - Over the first nine months of 2025, Old Dominion returned approximately $782.6 million to shareholders, including $605.4 million through share repurchases and $177.2 million in dividends [10]. - The company plans to invest roughly $450 million in capital expenditures for service center expansion, equipment, and technology in 2025 [9]. Valuation and Investor Sentiment - Old Dominion shares currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, reflecting investor confidence in a rebound and the company's ability to continue compounding over time [11]. - Despite the stock's recent pullback, it is not considered an obvious bargain, and investors are advised to monitor the freight market closely [14].

Industry Overview - The freight industry is experiencing a significant recession, with many trucking companies permanently shutting down operations and filing for bankruptcy. In the third quarter of 2025, approximately 21 firms filed for bankruptcy, following 20 companies in the second quarter [1]. Company Closures - J.B. Hunt Transport Inc. closed its facility at the Home Depot Distribution Center in Lithonia, Georgia, on October 27, 2025. Additionally, 10 Roads Express, a U.S. Postal Service contractor, plans to cease all operations by the end of January 2026 without filing for bankruptcy [2]. - Standard Forwarding Freight, a less-than-truckload shipping company operating in 16 states, closed its business on December 29, 2025, and terminated employees, stating it would suspend day-to-day operations [7][8]. Layoffs - 10 Roads Express submitted a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification on December 1, indicating that approximately 2,000 workers would be laid off, with a final layoff date set for January 30, 2026 [3]. Company Statements - 10 Roads Express cited significant headwinds impacting the transportation industry as the reason for winding down operations, emphasizing the challenges faced despite employee dedication [5][6].

PHOENIX--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KNX) ("Knight-Swift", the "Company", or "we") expects to release its 2025 fourth quarter earnings after market close on Wednesday, January 21, 2026. The Company will host a conference call from 4:30-5:30 p.m. EST on the same date to discuss the financial results of the quarter and other matters following its earnings press release. An online, real- time webcast of the quarterly conference call will be available at investor.knight-swi ...

Large carriers kept their purse strings taught in 2025 as they focused on improving asset utilization and cutting costs. There were several small and midsize deals across trucking and logistics this year, however, not many transactions involving large asset-based carriers. Serial acquirers like Heartland Express (NASDAQ: HTLD) and Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) are struggling to stabilize operations as the freight market navigates a fourth straight year of weak demand. TFI International (NYSE: TFII) is ...

It was a bleak 2025 for the trucking industry, with numerous bankruptcies, rising costs, and uncertain futures for many major players. “The trucking industry is facing the most challenging freight market in years, with loads down and costs increasing,” Groendyke Transport CEO Greg Hodgen told Transport Topics. “ATRI’s Operational Costs data and the customized benchmarking report that compares us to similar fleets are more critical than ever as we navigate rising costs and decreasing margins in this adve ...

Core Viewpoint - Titanium Transportation Group Inc. is enhancing its corporate presentation materials and Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) following a review by the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) [1][2]. Group 1: Corporate Updates - The company has removed its Q1 2025 Corporate Presentation from its website and will include updated disclosures in future materials [2]. - Forward-looking information regarding expected future savings in fleet maintenance has been removed from the MD&A for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, in line with common practice [2]. Group 2: Future Plans - Titanium expects to publish its next corporate presentation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - The company will be listed on the public Refiling and Errors list for three years due to these corrective updates [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Titanium is a leading North American transportation company with approximately 800 power units, 2,800 trailers, and 1,300 employees and independent owner-operators [4]. - The company provides truckload, dedicated, and cross-border trucking services, logistics, and warehousing to over 1,000 customers across eighteen locations in Canada and the U.S. [4]. - Titanium has completed thirteen acquisitions since 2011 and has been recognized as one of Canada's Fastest Growing Companies for eleven consecutive years [4].