KB Home ( KBH ) (-0.05%) just reported earnings, showing a decline in home deliveries and home sale prices. The company also downgraded its guidance; it previously forecast $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion in revenue. It now sees $6.1 billion to $6.2 billion.Needless to say, investors want a piece of that growth. Nothing irrational about that, even if the premiums are getting a little hefty. Seems the only thing it's stirring is movement from individual stocks to more diversified ETF products:This is still anal ...

Core Insights - New home sales for August significantly exceeded expectations, coming in at 800,000 compared to the anticipated 650,000, with previous months also revised upward [1][2] - There was a remarkable 20.5% month-over-month increase in new home sales, indicating a potential seasonal trend rather than a long-term shift [3] - The housing market is showing signs of recovery, with mortgage applications increasing as rates decline, leading to a rise in refinancing activity [5][7] Housing Market Trends - The increase in new home sales may be linked to decreasing mortgage rates, which have encouraged more buyers to enter the market [2][4] - Mortgage application volume rose by 0.6% week-over-week, while refinance applications increased by 1% week-over-week and 42% year-over-year, indicating strong demand for refinancing [7][8] - Building permits have shown better-than-expected results, although there is a long-term deceleration in the issuance of these permits [10] Company-Specific Insights - KB Home is expected to report lower performance metrics due to margin pressures and the need to lower prices to attract buyers [12][14] - The focus for KB Home should be on future guidance regarding deliveries and new orders, which will provide insight into demand trends [16][17] - The company primarily targets first-time homebuyers, who may face more pressure from rising mortgage rates, impacting their sales performance [17][19]

Some breaking economic data coming in much better than expected. New home sales rise 800,000 an annual rate the estimate had been for 650,000. That also means that the sales percentage change month over month is 20.5%.The expectation had actually been a decline of.3%. So it is a stronger number but not a roaring market. It does underscore the fact that mortgages Matt have come in.The mortgage rate looks to be around the lowest since the start of the year, but we've had a Fed that's cut 125 basis points over ...

Sales of new homes posted an unexpected jump in August as builders ramped up discounts and slashed prices to lure buyers. ...

Core Insights - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased significantly in August, rising 20.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 800,000 units, indicating strong demand despite potential economic headwinds [1][2] - The decline in mortgage rates, with the 30-year mortgage dropping to an 11-month low of 6.26%, has contributed to this surge in new home sales [3] - However, the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with nonfarm payroll gains averaging only 29,000 jobs per month over the last three months, which could limit the sustainability of this sales growth [4] New Home Sales - New home sales accounted for approximately 14% of total U.S. home sales and experienced a year-over-year increase of 15.4% in August [2] - The previous month's sales pace was revised upward from 652,000 to 664,000 units, reflecting a stronger market than initially reported [1] Mortgage Rates - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% is expected to support further declines in mortgage rates [3] - The mortgage rate has decreased from around 7.04% in mid-January to 6.26% in August, indicating a favorable borrowing environment for homebuyers [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market has softened, with a significant drop in job creation compared to the previous year, averaging only 29,000 jobs per month versus 82,000 in the same period last year [4]

New-home sales in the US unexpectedly surged in August to the fastest pace since early 2022, likely lifted by builders’ rampant price cuts and sales incentives to motivate buyers in a jittery economy. https://t.co/Dx4p4T963e ...

Market Overview - Stock prices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite decreasing nearly 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 0.2% [3] - The decline in stock prices followed a period of record highs earlier in the week, influenced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on interest rate reductions [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell expressed concerns regarding persistent inflation and a slowing labor market, describing the current economic situation as "challenging" [4] - Investors are anticipating a potential second interest rate reduction in 2025 during the Fed's October meeting, although Powell did not confirm this expectation [4] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic reports include new residential housing sales for August, with analysts predicting a slight dip to 650,000 from July's 652,000 [6] - Cintas Corporation is expected to report an EPS of $1.20 for the August quarter, an increase from $1.10 in the prior year [6] - Uranium Energy is projected to report a loss per share of $0.04 for the July quarter, compared to a $0.03 loss in the previous year [6] - KB Home aims to exceed a consensus EPS estimate of $1.51 for the August quarter, down from $2.04 in the prior year [6]

Core Insights - Lennar Corporation has experienced a stock decline of approximately 25% over the past year due to affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and decreasing margins affecting investor confidence [2] - The recent quarterly earnings fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the housing outlook [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 FY2025, Lennar reported revenues of $8.81 billion, a decline of roughly 6% year-over-year, which was below analyst predictions [3] - Net earnings dropped nearly 46% to $2.29 per diluted share, compared to $4.26 from the previous year, with adjusted EPS closer to $2.00 [3] Housing Market Dynamics - The average selling price for Lennar homes decreased to approximately $383,000, down from over $400,000 last year, as the company relied on incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns [4] - New orders increased by about 12% to 23,000 homes, but profit margins were adversely affected, with gross margin on home sales falling to 17.5%, down from over 22% the year prior [4] - Deliveries of 21,584 homes fell short of expectations of around 22,400, with a backlog of $6.6 billion indicating weaker visibility [5] Mortgage Rate Impact - High mortgage rates continue to be a pressing issue, pricing out many first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade, leading to price reductions and substantial incentives [6] - The uneven recovery in the housing market shows strong demand for entry-level homes, while luxury and move-up buyers are more cautious, complicating Lennar's position [7] Valuation and Investment Considerations - Lennar's stock is trading at a P/E ratio near 11x and a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 1x, significantly lower than high-growth technology stocks [8] - Operating margins are in the high teens, but recent decreases indicate fragility, with positive free cash flow supported by a robust balance sheet [8] - Fundamental pressures are evident, with decreased revenues and gross margins considerably lower than historical averages, raising sustainability concerns if high mortgage rates persist into 2026 [9] Historical Performance - Historical data indicates that Lennar has rebounded significantly slower than the S&P 500 during major downturns over the past two decades, suggesting that the recent selloff may not represent a buying opportunity [10]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday after declines on Tuesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive futures [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that equity prices are "fairly highly valued" but downplayed immediate financial stability risks [1] - Investors are anticipating the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index, scheduled for Friday [2] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.10%, while the two-year bond was at 3.56% [2] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI slowed to 53.6 in September, indicating softer growth [4] - The U.S. current account deficit shrank by 42.9% to $251.3 billion in Q2 [4] Sector Performance - Energy, real estate, and utilities stocks led gains on Tuesday, while information technology and consumer discretionary stocks declined [3] - The Dow Jones index fell by 89 points (0.19%), S&P 500 dropped 0.55%, and Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.95% [5][6] Company-Specific Movements - Nvidia Corp. shares fell 2.8% after announcing a $100 billion investment in OpenAI [4] - Cintas Corp. is expected to report earnings of $1.19 per share on revenue of $2.70 million [15] - Micron Technology Inc. rose 1.86% after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and a strong revenue forecast [15] - Ares Acquisition Corporation II jumped 4.39% following successful fundraising for a merger with Kodiak Robotics [15] Investment Insights - BlackRock advises clients to seek "granular opportunities" in Europe while maintaining an overweight position on U.S. equities [8] - The report highlights financials, industrials, and utilities as outperforming sectors in Europe, with financials achieving a 32% year-to-date return [9][10] - BlackRock sees value in European fixed income, particularly when currency is hedged, potentially pushing yields on euro investment-grade credit to near 6% for U.S. investors [11]

U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday following Tuesday’s declines. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that "by many measures… equity prices are fairly highly valued,” on Tuesday. However, while acknowledging the high valuations, Powell sought to temper immediate fears. He added that he does not believe this is a "time of elevated financial stability risks," suggesting the central bank is not yet alarmed about systemic threats from asset prices. In ...