Core Insights - UBS has released its list of highest conviction stocks for 2026, focusing on companies across various sectors that are expected to outperform the broader market [1][3] Company Summaries - **Acadia Pharmaceuticals (Ticker: ACAD)** - Expected return for 2025 is +46% - The company is viewed positively due to its management's execution on growth initiatives for new drugs, particularly the upcoming trial results for ACP-204 related to Alzheimer's disease psychosis, expected in mid-2026 [4] - **Alliant Energy Corp (Ticker: LNT)** - Expected return for 2025 is +11% - The company is considered undervalued and is likely to benefit from the ongoing data center boom in 2026, with expectations of 2-4GW of upside opportunities [5][6] - **Amazon (Ticker: AMZN)** - Expected return for 2025 is +0.3% - As the only stock from the Magnificent Seven on UBS' list, Amazon is anticipated to benefit from the AI boom and advancements in sports licensing and same-day delivery in its e-commerce operations [8]

Core Thesis - TransAlta Corporation (TAC) is positioned as a unique opportunity in the North American AI and HPC data center market, benefiting from Alberta's pro-data center policies and significant energy capacity [2][6] Financial Performance - TAC reported $1.25 billion in EBITDA for 2024, showcasing its strong financial performance compared to speculative crypto-mining ventures [3] - The company's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 708.69 and 51.02 respectively, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings [1] Market Position and Strategy - TAC has 9,000 MW of energized capacity across 88 facilities in Canada, the U.S., and Australia, positioning it well for rapid deployment of AI infrastructure [2][3] - The company’s behind-the-meter model and flexible power solutions provide a competitive edge over greenfield competitors limited by grid constraints [5] Growth Potential - The AI data center business alone could generate annual revenues of $1.2–$1.8 billion, suggesting a potential upside of over 100% from current market levels [5] - Additional catalysts such as AESO interconnection approvals and battery-based peak-shaving strategies could unlock more capacity than currently anticipated by the market [6] Recent Developments - Recent Q3 earnings were disappointing due to lower Alberta power prices and uncertainties around the Alberta data center project, but management remains optimistic about timelines, suggesting a conservative worst-case in-service date of 2030 [4] - The market's reaction to the recent earnings report is viewed as an overreaction, as TAC is making progress toward final MOUs with partners [4]

Company Overview - Clearway Energy Inc. was founded in 2012 and operates a diversified portfolio of contracted renewable and conventional generation in the United States [12] - The company's primary business strategy focuses on acquisitions and ownership of assets that provide predictable and long-term cash flows to increase cash dividends for its Class A and Class C common stockholders [12] - Clearway Energy's asset portfolio includes over 9 gigawatts (GW) of wind, solar, thermal, and natural gas-fired power generation facilities, as well as district energy systems [12] Investment Potential - Clearway Energy is currently rated 3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of A, indicating strong potential for growth investors [13] - The company has a Growth Style Score of B, forecasting year-over-year earnings growth of 194.7% for the current fiscal year [13] - In the last 60 days, three analysts have revised their earnings estimates upwards for fiscal 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $1.57 to $2.21 per share [13] - Clearway Energy boasts an average earnings surprise of +125.5%, further highlighting its strong performance potential [13] Conclusion - With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Growth and VGM Style Scores, Clearway Energy should be considered a top pick for investors [14]

Six minutes before we get started with trading here at the New York Stock Exchange on this Thursday. Let's get a mad dash in. We're going to stay on the power generation theme if we >> uh with GE Vernova.>> Yeah. So, we have two themes. One is we have the actual building the data center and the other is we have the do you have enough power do it.Now, GE Vernova is the cheap way to do it because they're natural gas. The problem is is that they did not increase capacity. There's only three companies that actu ...

Group 1: Power Generation and Capacity - GE Vernova is positioned as a cost-effective solution for power generation through natural gas, but it faces capacity constraints with availability not expected until 2030 [2][3] - There are only three companies manufacturing natural gas generators, and GE Vernova is one of them, indicating a limited supply in the market [2] - The nuclear power situation is projected to be operational by 2035, highlighting a long-term timeline for alternative energy sources [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing Power - The recent market downturn was partially influenced by broader trading conditions and specific company stories, such as Oracle [4] - Companies like Micron are experiencing a lack of pricing power due to being sold out, which limits their ability to raise prices despite demand [5] - The stock market is facing a "catch 22" scenario where companies can only raise prices if they receive new equipment, but this could lead to falling prices if supply increases [6] Group 3: Future Considerations - There is skepticism regarding the feasibility of endless data center expansions without addressing the underlying supply issues [6] - The potential for fusion energy is mentioned as a future consideration, though it remains speculative at this stage [7]

Core Viewpoint - EDF has forecasted the cost estimate for its EPR2 programme at €72.8 billion, with a budget of €2.7 billion approved for 2026, reflecting a commitment to controlling schedules and costs in the nuclear sector [1][3]. Group 1: Cost and Budget - The forecasted cost estimate for the EPR2 programme is €72.8 billion, to be audited in Q1 2026 [1] - A budget of €2.7 billion has been approved for the programme in 2026 [1] Group 2: Project Timeline - The first reactor at Penly is targeted for commissioning in 2038, with subsequent reactors scheduled at intervals of 12 to 18 months [2] Group 3: Government Support and Measures - The EPR2 programme will be supported by state measures, with general principles approved in June 2025 and submitted to the European Commission for approval on November 17, 2025 [3] - A final investment decision is expected in late 2026 [3] - Key measures include a subsidised loan covering at least 50% of construction costs, a 40-year contract for difference, and risk sharing between the French State and EDF [6] Group 4: EDF Overview - EDF is a key player in the energy transition, focusing on power generation, distribution, trading, and energy services, with a significant output of 520 TWh, 94% of which is decarbonised [4] - The company aims to build a net zero energy future and serves approximately 41.5 million customers, generating consolidated sales of €118.7 billion in 2024 [4]

Core Viewpoint - NuScale Power Corp. is experiencing significant stock price decline due to concerns over its plan to nearly double its authorized capital stock, which has led to investor sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - NuScale Power's stock dropped 8.12% to close at $15.73, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses [1]. - The decline is attributed to investor concerns regarding the impact of new share issuance on existing shareholders [3]. Group 2: Capital Stock Increase - NuScale Power has filed for approval to raise its authorized capital stock from 332 million shares to 662 million shares, with a par value of $0.0001 each [2]. - The plan has already received approval from the Board of Directors [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3, NuScale Power reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $273 million, a 1,470% increase from $17 million in the same period last year [4]. - Revenue surged by 1,635% to $8.2 million, up from $475,000 year-on-year [4].

Core Viewpoint - Generac Holdings Inc. is experiencing significant stock declines and has revised its financial outlook downward due to weaker-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, particularly in residential product sales and overall profitability [5][6]. Company Overview - Generac Holdings Inc. has a market capitalization of $8.5 billion and operates as a global energy technology company, offering a variety of power generation, energy storage, and smart energy management solutions across residential, commercial, and industrial markets [1]. - The company distributes its products through a wide network of dealers, retailers, distributors, and direct-to-customer channels globally [2]. Stock Performance - Shares of Generac Holdings have decreased by 28.8% from their 52-week high of $203.25 and have dropped 20.1% over the past three months, underperforming the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), which rose by 1.6% in the same period [3]. - Year-to-date, GNRC stock is down 6.6%, while XLI has increased by 16.5%. Over the past 52 weeks, Generac shares have fallen by 12.3%, compared to XLI's 12.7% return [4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Generac reported an adjusted EPS of $1.83, which was weaker than expected, and revenue declined by 5% year-over-year to $1.11 billion. This decline was attributed to a significantly weaker power outage environment, resulting in a 13% drop in residential product sales to $627 million [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17.3%, and the company has lowered its full-year 2025 outlook, projecting net sales growth to be approximately flat and reducing the expected adjusted EBITDA margin to about 17% [6].

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) has been upgraded to investment grade by S&P Global Ratings, reflecting a stable outlook and strong business fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating Upgrade - S&P Global Ratings upgraded Vistra Corp's credit rating from BBB+ to BBB- due to its stable outlook and recent strategic moves [1][2]. - The upgrade is attributed to a power purchase agreement for the Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant and the acquisition of natural assets from Lotus Infrastructure Partners [2]. Group 2: Business Expansion and Portfolio Diversification - The acquisitions have enhanced Vistra's diverse generation portfolio, adding efficient assets in competitive markets such as PJM, New England, New York, and California [3]. - Increased capacity at PJM is viewed as credit-positive, supported by strong market fundamentals leading to favorable auction results [3]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - S&P Global Ratings indicates that Vistra's risk profile has significantly improved, leading to better long-term cash flow visibility [4]. - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio in the mid-3.0x range by year-end, decreasing to between 2.6x and 2.8x by 2026 and 2027 [4]. Group 4: Analyst Coverage and Price Target - KeyBanc initiated coverage of Vistra Corp with an Overweight rating and a price target of $217, citing the company's scale, diversified generation mix, and strong cash flow as indicators of long-term prospects [5].

Market Overview - The S&P BSE Sensex fell over 300 points, trading below 84,300, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped below 25,750 [1][14] - The Nifty and Sensex have declined about 0.9% over the past three sessions, pressured by worries over foreign fund outflows and the rupee's slide to record lows amid stalled progress on an India-U.S. trade agreement [2][14] Foreign Institutional Investment - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) returned to the buy side, snapping an eight-session selling streak, purchasing equities worth approximately Rs 1,172 crore on December 17, while domestic institutional investors were also net buyers with purchases of roughly Rs 769 crore [4][14] - Despite FII buying and net institutional buying, the market drifted down, possibly due to FIIs increasing their short positions, indicating a near-term sell on rally strategy [6][14] Economic Indicators - Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Japanese central bank to raise rates, which could trigger a reversal of the 'yen carry trade' and lead to further selling by FIIs [7][14] - The Indian rupee edged higher, rising 6 paise to 90.32 against the U.S. dollar, as investors assessed the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in currency markets [13][14] Global Market Trends - Asian stocks fell, with MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan dropping 0.5%, and major markets like South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan experiencing declines [8][14] - U.S. equity futures showed slight gains after a tech-led decline on Wall Street, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.2% [8][14] Commodity Market Developments - Oil prices advanced as traders weighed the risk of tighter global supply due to potential new sanctions on Russian crude exports and disruptions from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers [11][12][14] - Precious metals cooled after a strong rally, with spot gold slipping 0.3% to $4,330 an ounce and silver easing 0.2% to $66.17 [9][14]