Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2025 Global Macro Conference Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Macro Economics - **Event**: 2025 Global Macro Conference held in New York on November 19 Key Points and Arguments Economic Outlook 1. **Short-term Resilience**: The global economy is perceived as resilient in the short term, driven by AI-related business investments and modest tax changes benefiting households in 1H26 [4][6][7] 2. **Long-term Risks**: Concerns persist regarding elevated fiscal deficits, potential backlash against executive power, and political complexities as midterm elections approach [4][6][7] 3. **Growth Projections**: The Wall Street consensus for US growth at 1.8% may be too low, with potential growth exceeding 3% [7][8] Political Dynamics 4. **Trump's Influence**: There is growing dissent against Trump's influence, with discussions on his potential lame duck status in 2026 following recent Democratic victories in elections [8][9] 5. **Midterm Elections**: The upcoming midterm elections are critical, with Democrats needing to win three seats to flip the House, indicating a competitive political landscape [8][9] Trade and Tariff Policies 6. **Tariff Revenue Risks**: The Supreme Court's ruling on the use of emergency powers for tariffs is uncertain, posing risks to tariff revenue collection [9][10][11] 7. **US-China Relations**: The US-China rivalry is likened to a new Cold War, with Taiwan's semiconductor industry viewed as a significant risk factor [10][11] Market Trends 8. **AI Boom**: The AI boom is seen as a significant tailwind for the economy, although identifying individual winners remains uncertain [12][13] 9. **Traditional vs. Crypto Markets**: Traditional markets are expected to outperform crypto and private markets, with a forecast of a weaker USD [15][16] 10. **Commodity Prices**: Gold prices are expected to rise, while oil prices are projected to decline due to excess supply [16][17] Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy 11. **Interest Rate Projections**: Long-term interest rates are anticipated to rise, with a global repricing expected [17][18] 12. **Fiscal Dynamics**: Rising fiscal deficits and higher debt issuance are straining global government debt markets, with potential implications for interest rates and economic stability [64][65] Investor Sentiment 13. **Investor Survey Insights**: A survey conducted during the conference indicated that investors expect modest upside for the S&P 500 and stable US Treasury yields, with AI being viewed as both a significant risk and a tailwind [19][22][23] 14. **Asset Class Performance**: Respondents expect US equities and gold to outperform other asset classes, with a notable percentage anticipating gold prices to exceed $5,000/oz by the end of 2026 [24][46] Dollar Dominance 15. **USD Depreciation Risks**: While dollar dominance is expected to persist, there are risks of gradual depreciation due to internal economic policies and geopolitical factors [86][87][88] Additional Important Insights - **Central Bank Independence**: Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, with potential implications for monetary policy and market stability [78][79] - **Political Landscape Shifts**: The political landscape is evolving, with potential new candidates emerging for the 2028 presidential race, indicating a shift in party dynamics [83][84][85] This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from J.P. Morgan's 2025 Global Macro Conference, highlighting the interplay between economic forecasts, political dynamics, and market trends.

Economic Indicators and Corporate Performance - China's services trade deficit has widened to $164.4 billion for the January-October period, with a deficit of $11.2 billion in October alone, indicating ongoing challenges in balancing international trade in services [2][10] - Meituan reported a disappointing third quarter with an adjusted net loss of 16.0 billion yuan, which is significantly wider than the estimated loss of 13.96 billion yuan, and its revenue of 95.5 billion yuan fell short of the 97.47 billion yuan estimate [4][10] Regulatory Developments - The Industry Ministry of China plans to regulate excessive competition in the battery sector and aims to guide battery firms in expanding overseas in a "reasonable and orderly" manner, indicating a strategic effort to consolidate and globalize the industry [3] Global Economic Trends - Germany's labor market showed mixed signals with a slight increase in unemployment by 1,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3%, and inflation data indicated a monthly decline of 0.2% in November [5][10] - Taiwan's economy demonstrated robust performance with a preliminary Q3 GDP growth of 8.21% year-over-year, exceeding the estimated 7.60%, and the 2026 GDP growth forecast was revised upwards to 3.54% from 2.81% [8][10] Market Trends - Gold is experiencing a significant rally, poised for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, driven by optimism over potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which typically boosts the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [11]

South Africa’s central bank has cooled expectations for a retail central bank digital currency, saying the country does not face an urgent need to launch one and should focus instead on upgrading the existing payments system. Key Takeaways: South Africa’s central bank says a retail CBDC is not needed now and is prioritizing payments system upgrades instead. The SARB will focus on wholesale digital currency uses and improving cross-border payments. Officials also warned that crypto and stablecoins pos ...

Bitcoin hovered around the $90k mark in Asian trading on Friday, while regional stocks struggled for direction as investors weighed a powerful global rebound against signs that the rally may be running out of steam. The largest cryptocurrency traded in a tight band between about $90,600 and $91,400 after touching roughly $91,800 in the past 24 hours. A global equity gauge was little changed, yet still on track for its best week since June as traders leaned into the idea that the Federal Reserve is finall ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets, including NYSE and Nasdaq, were closed on November 27, 2025, for Thanksgiving, but market sentiment remained positive due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47427.12, up 314.67 points (0.6679%), indicating positive momentum in the market [1] Key Performers - Major gainers among Dow components included Boeing (BA), which rose by 2.46%, Walmart (WMT) with a 2.07% increase, and Microsoft (MSFT) adding 2.04% [2] - Other notable gainers were Goldman Sachs (GS) up 1.71% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) increasing by 1.64%, reflecting broad-based strength across various sectors [2] Decliners - Salesforce (CRM) was the biggest laggard among Dow components, falling by 2.51% [3] - Merck & Co. (MRK) decreased by 0.73%, while 3M (MMM) saw a modest decline of 0.43% [3] - Other companies with slight pullbacks included Honeywell (HON) down 0.43% and IBM (IBM) with a 0.41% loss [3]

Market Overview - The US stock markets are closed for Thanksgiving, following a four-day winning streak driven by optimism around potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and enthusiasm for AI-related stocks [1][2] - Major US indexes saw significant gains before the holiday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.67% to 47,427.12, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.69% to 6,812.61, and the Nasdaq Composite leading with a 0.82% rise to 23,214.69 [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks were pivotal in the midweek rally, with Microsoft gaining 1.8% and Nvidia rising 1.4%, reflecting renewed momentum in the AI sector [3] - Oracle experienced a notable 4% increase following a positive outlook from Deutsche Bank, while Alphabet (Google's parent company) saw a decline of 1% [3] - Financial sector stocks also contributed positively, with Robinhood Markets surging 10.9% after announcing plans for a futures and derivatives exchange [3] Global Market Activity - Asian markets mirrored the positive sentiment from US markets, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 1% to 50,069.33 and South Korea's Kospi increasing by 0.7% to 3,986.54 [4] - European markets also saw modest gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.4%, France's CAC 40 rising 0.2%, and London's FTSE 100 increasing by 0.1% [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Investors are anticipating key economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting on December 10, 2025, which is expected to address interest rate cuts [6][7] - Important economic indicators include Markit PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, and the Employment Situation report, which will provide insights into the US economy [7] Corporate Announcements - HP Inc. reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $55.3 billion, up 3.2% year over year, with Personal Systems revenue increasing by 8% [15] - Best Buy raised its FY26 adjusted diluted EPS guidance, reporting a 2.1% increase in domestic revenue driven by growth in computing, gaming, and mobile phones [15] - Analog Devices reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $11.0 billion, up 17% compared to 2024 [15] - Wipro announced a strategic alliance to advance AI technologies [15] - Paytm received approval from the Reserve Bank of India to operate as a payment aggregator, enhancing its digital payments business [15]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs researchers indicate that the US labor market is showing signs of softening, with a notable increase in layoffs across various industries, marking the highest level of planned mass layoffs since 2016, excluding pandemic-related spikes [1][5] Layoff Trends - Layoff announcements have reached unprecedented levels outside of a recession, with significant cuts reported in sectors such as technology, industrial goods, and food and beverage [2] - The rise in layoffs is concerning as it reflects "growing signs of weakness" in the labor market, with workers facing challenges in securing new employment [3][4] WARN Notices - The increase in WARN notices, which are required for companies with over 100 employees before layoffs, serves as a key indicator of employer behavior and potential job cuts [5] - Publicly traded companies have begun discussing potential layoffs during earnings calls, suggesting a trend towards workforce reductions and efficiency measures in the near future [6] Jobless Claims and Economic Indicators - Despite the rise in layoffs, weekly jobless claims remain low, indicating that government reports may not yet fully capture the labor market's deterioration [7] - Historical data shows that jobless claims typically lag behind private layoff trackers by about two months, hinting at a possible increase in federal job loss data as winter progresses [7] Impact of AI on Employment - Concerns about artificial intelligence leading to workforce reductions are present, but current evidence does not support the notion that AI is a significant driver of recent layoffs [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on November 27, 2025, for Thanksgiving, with trading resuming on November 28, 2025, in a shortened session [1] - The latest market data reflects performance from November 26, 2025, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 314.67 points (0.6679%) to reach 47,427.12 [1] Market Drivers - Investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December and renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector drove the market rally [2] - This positive sentiment contributed to a four-day winning streak for benchmark indices, helping to recover earlier losses in November [2] - Global markets also benefited from the anticipation of rate cuts, despite the U.S. markets preparing for the holiday closure [2] Stock Performance - Boeing (BA) led the Dow components with a gain of 2.46%, reaching $186.92 [3] - Walmart (WMT) increased by 2.07% to $109.10, and Microsoft (MSFT) rose by 2.04% to $485.50 [3] - Financial institutions performed well, with Goldman Sachs (GS) climbing 1.71% to $816.01 and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) up 1.64% to $307.64 [3] - Conversely, Salesforce (CRM) was the biggest laggard, down 2.51% to $228.15, followed by Merck (MRK) down 0.73% to $104.63, and Honeywell (HON) decreasing 0.43% to $189.99 [3]

Core Insights - Accessing paychecks early is possible through various methods, each with its own costs and drawbacks [1][2][3] Group 1: Early Access Methods - Some banks offer early access to paychecks through direct deposit, allowing funds to be available up to two days early without fees [2][3] - Payroll advances from employers are short-term loans that are repaid through future paycheck deductions, with an average amount borrowed of $106 in 2024 [3][5] - Payday loans are high-risk loans typically under $500, with repayment through automatic debit, often leading to extremely high APRs ranging from 400% to 800% [6][8][9] Group 2: Financial Management Strategies - To break the paycheck-to-paycheck cycle, individuals should consider applying for Payday Alternative Loans (PALs) through credit unions, which have capped interest rates at 28% [10][11] - Changing due dates for bills can help manage cash flow better, ensuring that not all expenses come from the same paycheck [11] - Exploring hardship plans and increasing income through side gigs or higher-paying jobs can also alleviate financial pressure [11]

Market Overview - European stocks are showing mixed performance as investors digest regional economic news and await the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes [1] - The pan European Stoxx 600 was roughly flat at 574.11, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 decreased by 25.52 points or 0.26% to 9,666.05 [2] - Germany's DAX increased by 82.87 points or 0.35% to 23,778.10, and France's CAC 40 rose by 5.37 points or 0.07% to 8,101.80 [2] Company Performance - In the U.K. market, notable gainers included St. James' Place, Land Securities, Centrica, and Natwest Group [2] - Conversely, Imperial Brands fell by more than 3%, while other companies like Anglo American Plc and British American Tobacco saw losses between 1% to 1.7% [3] - In Germany, Deutsche Boerse climbed over 4%, with Siemens Energy gaining about 2.3% [3] - In France, Pernod Ricard gained nearly 2%, while companies like Hermes International and Kering showed weakness [4] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - A monthly survey indicated that German consumer confidence is expected to improve in December, despite deteriorating economic and income expectations [4] - The forward-looking consumer sentiment index improved to -23.2 from -24.1, slightly below the forecast of -23.6 [5] - The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator increased to 97.0 in November from 96.8 in October, marking its highest level since April 2023 [5]