Market Reaction to Kevin Worsh's Potential Nomination - The prediction market shows a slight increase in the probability of Kevin Worsh being nominated by President Trump, although there are still hurdles to overcome for confirmation [2][3] - Senator Tillis is opposing the nomination until investigations into Chairman Powell and Lisa Cook are resolved, indicating political challenges ahead [3] Economic Indicators and Inflation - The dollar is gaining strength, with the dollar index up about 0.5%, which may lead to weakness in physical commodities like silver and gold [5][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5% month-on-month, which was higher than expected, indicating potential inflationary pressures [9][10] - Services inflation is driving the PPI increase, with a notable rise of 0.7% month-on-month, primarily due to a 1.7% increase in trading services margins [11][12] Earnings Reports and Market Sentiment - Recent tech earnings, particularly from Apple, Microsoft, and Meta, have shown mixed results, with concerns about supply chain issues and margin pressures affecting market sentiment [15][17] - Apple reported decent earnings but faces uncertainty regarding chip supply and pricing, which could impact future margins [17] - Microsoft’s capital expenditure and backlog from OpenAI raise concerns about revenue viability, while Meta is managing expenses through job cuts and strategic spending [18][19] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodities market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in metals, with silver down approximately 12% and gold down about 5% [21][22] - Liquidity issues in the silver futures market are contributing to erratic price movements, with low contract depth making it easier to push prices [23][26] - Technical indicators suggest a potential bearish divergence in silver, indicating a possible reversal, but past patterns show that such signals can be misleading [24][25]

The crypto market's tight links with traditional markets laid bare Friday as a sharp slide in metal prices shook out millions in leveraged bets on blockchain versions of gold, silver, and copper. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell nearly 4% from Thursday’s peak above $14,500 a ton, settling closer to $13,000 amid technical disruptions at the LME, and a sharp shift in positioning by Chinese traders. The move marked a pause after a relentless run driven by Chinese demand, ene ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic forecasts and trends affecting global markets, particularly focusing on GDP growth and inflation rates across various regions including the US, Euro area, and China [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global GDP Growth**: Expected to be 2.9% year-over-year in 2026, driven by fading US tariffs and rising real income growth [4][5]. - **US Economic Outlook**: Anticipated real GDP growth of 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, supported by tax cuts and easing financial conditions, despite trade policy uncertainties [4][5]. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation in the US is projected to decline to 2.1% year-over-year by the end of 2026, as tariff impacts diminish and wage/shelter inflation trends improve [4][5]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to implement two 25 basis point cuts in 2026, leading to a terminal rate range of 3-3.25% [4][5]. - **Euro Area Growth**: Projected real GDP growth of 1.2% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation expected to decline to 1.8% due to lower energy prices and a stronger Euro [4][5]. - **China's Economic Performance**: Forecasted real GDP growth of 4.8% year-over-year in 2026, bolstered by resilient export growth and government policy easing, despite sluggish domestic demand [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including US-China relations and developments in Venezuela and the Middle East, pose significant risks to economic stability [5]. - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: LME aluminum price forecasts have been raised to $3150/$2965/$2435 per metric ton for 3/6/12 months, reflecting a balanced global market that supports high prices without rapid production increases [1]. - **Unemployment Rates**: The unemployment rate in the US is expected to stabilize at 4.5% by the end of 2026 [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic outlook and potential investment implications across various regions and sectors.

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced their largest decline since October, falling from a record high of over $5,500 per ounce due to a risk-off sentiment among investors, leading to a selloff in metals as they sought to cover losses in other asset classes like equities [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The movement of gold and silver is influenced more by capital allocation and momentum rather than traditional fundamentals, according to Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi [1] - Geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and concerns over deficits and tariffs are driving investors towards precious metals [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Max Layton discussed these trends on "Bloomberg Markets" with Scarlet Fu, highlighting the current market sentiment and its impact on precious metals [1]

Copper surged by the most in more than 16 years, after a wave of buying from Chinese investors triggered one of the most dramatic moves in the market’s history. Prices gained as much as 11% to trade above $14,500 a ton for the first time ever, before a sharp retracement on Thursday afternoon as the dollar jumped. Most Read from Bloomberg The industrial metal, which is used in almost every electrical application, has risen about 21% since the start of December, firing up copper bulls who have long been ...

Joyce, just to pick up where we left off because we were talking about what we're seeing in the currency markets and what we're seeing with the dollar. Um, and so what are the dynamics just to pick this up and then throw it to our panel here um that are going to matter most. Well, so I would dis dismiss a lot of the talk about a Davos accord and even the DD dollarization I think that's exaggerated.But the weaker dollar, the bearish dollar trade, I think is here to stay and I think that is because we're at a ...

Core Insights - Copper prices have surged to record highs, with futures up 10% recently, exceeding $13,000 per ton, driven by supply chain disruptions, trade policy, and increasing demand [1] - Global copper demand is projected to rise from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, leading to a potential 10 million-ton shortfall without significant supply expansions [2] - Speculation and preemptive trading may have inflated copper prices, with analysts suggesting that current levels may not reflect market realities [3] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The copper market has faced significant supply shocks, including earthquakes and flooding affecting major mines, which have contributed to supply constraints [6][7] - U.S. tariff risks have influenced trading behavior, with traders moving copper into American channels to avoid duties, impacting supply availability in Europe and Asia [5] - The initial announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government led to a temporary price increase, although the tariffs were later clarified to apply only to semi-finished products [4][5]

Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled metals and mining vehicle is in talks with some of the world’s biggest commodity houses over a push into trading, as the kingdom expands its presence in global supply chains https://t.co/Nc2dvMslyc ...

Markets don’t usually shout to get your attention when a paradigm shifts. But they do tend to whisper in unison pretty loudly when historical relationships start to break. In this Market on Close clip, Senior Market Strategist John Rowland, CMT, highlights a rare alignment across global markets that historically only appears during periods of financial stress: More News from Barchart Japanese long-term yields are moving parabolically The U.S. dollar is breaking a 14-year structural trend Gold and ...

Gold (GC=F) futures jumped above $5,300 per ounce on Wednesday before easing as a weak dollar fueled the debasement trade, driving investors away from fiat currencies and government bonds. The US dollar stabilized on Wednesday after sliding to its lowest level in nearly four years as President Trump shrugged off concerns of an easing greenback. A weaker dollar has helped drive the price of bullion higher, extending year-to-date gains to 20%. "Dollar weakness is supercharging the rise in gold....adding ...