Market Impact - Freeport-McMoRan shares surged following President Trump's announcement [1] - Potential 50% tariff imposition on copper imports by the US [1] Trade Policy - US considering a 50% tariff on copper imports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 75.1% chance of the US Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, which may be a key reason for the recent bullish trend in global stock markets [2][24]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year down to 2.3%, from an earlier prediction of 2.8%, indicating that the period from 2020 to 2027 may see the lowest economic growth since 1960 [2][25]. - The average price of commodities is expected to decline by 10% year-on-year this year and by another 6% next year due to low economic growth and trade policies [2][25]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Recent CFTC data shows a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum and palladium have seen increases in long positions [3][7]. - Gold prices have accumulated a 27.2% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 24.3% [7][11]. - The gold/silver ratio has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [21]. Group 3: Fund Positioning - Managed positions in gold futures have decreased by 4.5%, while silver futures have seen an 8.7% drop in long positions [3][7]. - The net long position in palladium has increased, but it remains in a historically high net short position [8][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The relationship between economic indicators and commodity prices suggests that if the US enters a recession, it may lead to a decline in commodity prices, including gold [25][26]. - The current geopolitical climate and trade tensions are influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for commodity prices [29][30]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The company suggests that in the current market environment, strategies such as shorting base metals, holding cash, and maintaining positions in gold and silver may be prudent [28][30]. - The focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors is impacting investment decisions in the mining sector, leading to a lag in mining stocks compared to commodity prices [20].

Tuesday, July 8, 2025Market indexes started out mixed in today’s pre-market, and there they remained throughout the trading session. Some early chop back and forth eventually gave way to flat levels into the close. The Dow, which spent virtually all day in the red, was down -422 points at today’s lows, but closed -165 points, -0.37%.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both rode either side of breakeven all day long, eventually settling at -0.07% on the S&P and +0.03% on the Nasdaq. The small-cap Russell 2000, which ...

Megan Cassella is in Washington with the latest. And Megan, he's continuing to make some headlines on the tariff front. What can you tell us.Absolutely, Kelly. A lot of talk about trade in this meeting, which has gone for over an hour now meeting with his cabinet. And there the biggest news we've gotten so far on the trade front is the president appearing to announce a few minutes ago that he will be imposing a new 50% tariff on all imports of copper.Take a listen. So, we're going to be announcing pharmaceu ...

Zinc fell for a second day as a buildup in Chinese stockpiles pointed to tepid demand in the No. 1 consumer of the metal. https://t.co/Gfv967CqyF ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term nickel and stainless steel markets may continue to fluctuate. The intraday Shanghai nickel has been oscillating at the bottom. There is still short - term support in the Philippine nickel ore market, while the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia has slightly declined, and the premium in June has remained stable. The nickel - iron price is still on a downward trend, and due to profit pressure, the procurement intensity of upstream and downstream of nickel - iron is weak with ongoing games. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, some traders are selling at a discount, and the inventory reduction is slow. The nickel salt in the new energy chain has declined due to the impact of nickel prices. Future focus should be on spot trading volume and fundamental drivers [1][4] Summaries by Related Contents Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategies**: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (using the Shanghai nickel main contract, selling with a 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (using over - the - counter/on - exchange options, selling with a 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); buy forward Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance (using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts, buying according to the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [3] - **Procurement Management Strategies**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to sell put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, selling according to the procurement plan, strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying according to the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [3] Market Conditions - **Nickel Market**: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai nickel consecutive - one contract is 122,200 yuan/ton (up 630 yuan, 0.52%), the Shanghai nickel consecutive - two contract is 122,370 yuan/ton (up 590 yuan, 0.48%), the Shanghai nickel consecutive - three contract is 122,520 yuan/ton (up 530 yuan, 0.48%), and the LME nickel 3M is 15,490 US dollars/ton (up 45 US dollars, 0.43%). The trading volume is 115,890 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 76,246 lots (unchanged), the warehouse receipts are 21,192 tons (up 35 tons, 0.17%), and the basis of the main contract is - 1,690 yuan/ton (up 490 yuan, 40.8%) [6] - **Stainless Steel Market**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), the stainless - steel consecutive - one contract is 12,680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan, - 0.08%), the stainless - steel consecutive - two contract is 12,710 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan, 0.04%), the stainless - steel consecutive - three contract is 12,670 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan, - 0.35%). The trading volume is 76,193 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 61,030 lots (unchanged), the warehouse receipts are 121,663 tons (down 1,282 tons, - 1.04%), and the basis of the main contract is 690 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan, 1.47%) [7] Inventory Conditions - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,375 tons (down 2,178 tons), the LME nickel inventory is 199,092 tons (down 1,014 tons), the stainless - steel social inventory is 983.3 tons (up 15.8 tons), and the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons (up 1,907.5 tons) [8] Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, some stainless - steel plants have announced production cuts, and there is still support from the cost of nickel ore [5] - **Negative Factors**: The inventory reduction of stainless steel is slow, stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is relatively weak [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term, there is no obvious downward trend for nickel and stainless steel [1] - The increase of Indonesia's quota to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, the premium has increased, the supply of Philippine nickel ore is expected to increase, and the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the pricing of Indonesia's premium and discount for nickel ore in June [3] - The price of nickel iron has stabilized, some steel mills in China and Indonesia plan to cut production, which mainly affects the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand is sluggish in the off - season, and there are many low - priced resources in the market. The nickel salt in the new energy chain has declined due to the impact of nickel price [3] - The subsequent focus is on the spot trading volume and the trend of the external market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.17%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategies include shorting Shanghai nickel futures to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, selling call options, and buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts to lock in production costs [2] - Procurement management strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options to deal with the concern of rising raw material prices [2] Market Conditions Nickel - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 121,250 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the closing price of LME nickel 3M is 15,510 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% increase [6] - The trading volume is 73,462 lots, the open interest is 91,891 lots, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 22,038 tons, a decrease of 0.09% [6] - The basis of the main contract is - 1,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.1% [6] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,630 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the closing price of stainless - steel contract No.1 is 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [7] - The trading volume is 75,047 lots, the open interest is 85,193 lots, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 129,690 tons, a decrease of 0.23% [7] - The basis of the main contract is 985 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% [7] Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 201,462 tons, an increase of 1,152 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 967.5 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [8] Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 [4] Negative Factors - The rainy season in the Philippines is ending, and the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing - The inventory of stainless steel remains at a high level, and the demand shows no obvious improvement - Multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term nickel and stainless - steel market may continue to fluctuate. The current market has no obvious upward - driving logic. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, the price of ferronickel has stopped falling and rebounded, some stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia plan to cut production, and the new - energy link may strengthen. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 13.79% and a historical percentile of 0.7% [2] - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices may fall and inventory has impairment risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) using the Shanghai nickel main contract and over - the - counter/on - exchange options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2] - **Procurement Management**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts and over - the - counter/on - exchange options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: The short - term market is in a narrow - range shock. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase as the impact of the Philippine rainy season weakens. The price of ferronickel has stopped falling and may provide support. Some stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia plan to cut production, and the new - energy link may strengthen. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies [3] - **Likely Positive Factors**: A Sino - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, increased downstream procurement demand in the new - energy sector, and news of production cuts from some stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The end of the Philippine rainy season leading to increased ore supply, high stainless - steel inventories with no obvious improvement in demand, and anti - dumping investigations launched by multiple stainless - steel trading countries [4] Market Data - **Nickel Market Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,170 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 52,308 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 29,331 lots (unchanged), and the number of warehouse receipts is 22,120 tons (- 0.58%). The LME nickel 3M price is 15,570 US dollars/ton (+ 0.19%) [5] - **Stainless - Steel Market Data**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,855 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 98,902 lots (unchanged), the open interest is 92,426 lots (unchanged), and the number of warehouse receipts is 134,611 tons (- 3.24%) [6] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons (- 1,762 tons), LME nickel inventory is 199,998 tons (+ 1,362 tons), stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons (- 6.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons (+ 1,158 tons) [7]

镍&不锈钢：短期基本面无明显驱动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.79% | 0.7% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 涨 | 根据 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Team - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, written by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua Futures, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The short - term nickel and stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. There is no obvious upward driving force in the market logic, the impact of macro - sentiment has dissipated, and spot transactions are relatively moderate. Nickel ore supply is expected to increase, the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines is gradually weakening, and the price bottom has loosened. The nickel - iron price has stopped falling and rebounded, which may bring some support. The new energy chain may show a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, and the price is expected to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the impact of opening nickel contracts to foreign capital and subsequent tariff policies [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Management Strategies Nickel Price Forecast - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.67% and a historical percentile of 0.4% [2] Nickel Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices may fall and inventory has impairment risks, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines (60% hedge ratio), and sell call options (50% hedge ratio) [2] - **Procurement Management**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedge ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 - The new resource tax in Indonesia took effect on April 26, raising the overall cost line [4] Negative Factors - At the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply is gradually increasing - The support of the MHP nickel sulfate link has weakened - Stainless steel inventories remain at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement [4] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market Data - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main continuous contract is 123,400 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 101,218 lots, the open interest is 50,453 lots, and the warehouse receipt volume is 22,562 tons, a 1.96% month - on - month decrease [5] Stainless Steel Market Data - The latest price of the stainless steel main continuous contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 117,615 lots, the open interest is 123,141 lots, and the warehouse receipt volume is 141,742 tons, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease [6] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,910 tons, a decrease of 876 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 980.7 tons, a decrease of 8.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7]