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Should You Buy AGNC Investment as It Slips 11.6% in 3 Months?
ZACKS· 2025-05-12 18:16
Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment Inc. has experienced an 11.6% decline in share price over the past three months, which is more significant than the industry's decline of 8.5%, reflecting broader challenges in the mortgage market due to rate volatility [1][4]. Price Performance - AGNC's peers, Annaly Capital Management and Arbor Realty Trust, have also seen declines of 5% and 21.4%, respectively, in the same period [1]. - Despite recent price drops, AGNC offers attractive long-term returns with a high dividend yield, which may attract investors [4]. Interest Rate Environment - AGNC's performance is heavily influenced by the interest rate environment, particularly decisions made by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The company's net interest income (NII) fell dramatically from $965 million in 2022 to just $18 million in 2024 due to rising borrowing costs [6]. - A reduction in interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024 positively impacted AGNC's NII, which rose to $159 million in Q1 2025 from a negative $30 million in the same quarter the previous year [7]. Mortgage Rates and Activity - Recent trends show a slight decline in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.76% as of May 8, 2025, down from 7.09% a year prior [7]. - Lower mortgage rates are expected to boost origination and refinancing activities, which could enhance AGNC's NII and portfolio value [8][21]. Dividend Yield - AGNC's current dividend yield stands at 16.38%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.03%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [10]. - The company has a payout ratio of 81% and is engaged in a stock repurchase plan, authorizing up to $1 billion in buybacks through December 31, 2026 [11]. Agency MBS Outlook - AGNC focuses on agency mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which are backed by U.S. government guarantees, positioning it well in this market segment [12]. - The outlook for agency MBS has improved, although market volatility has increased following recent tariff announcements [13]. - AGNC generated a positive economic return of 2.4% in Q1 2025, supported by its dividend strategy [14]. Valuation - AGNC is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 5.36X, below the industry average of 7.74X, indicating it may be undervalued [22]. - Compared to peers, AGNC's P/E is lower than Annaly Capital Management's 6.66X and Arbor Realty Trust's 8.44X [22]. Investment Consideration - Given the strong fundamentals, high dividend yield, and potential for growth in a declining rate environment, AGNC stock may be a worthwhile addition to investment portfolios [24].
Claros Mortgage Trust(CMTG) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-05-08 12:18
Financial Performance - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $78.6 million, or $0.56 per share, and a distributable loss of $35.7 million, or $0.25 per share, for Q1 2025[2] - Distributable earnings prior to realized losses were $11.6 million, or $0.08 per share[2] - A provision for CECL reserves of $41.1 million, or $0.29 per share, was recorded for the quarter, bringing total CECL reserves to $260.8 million, or $1.83 per share, as of quarter end[2] - A valuation adjustment for a loan receivable held-for-sale of ($42.6) million, or ($0.30) per share, was recorded for the quarter[2] - The book value per share stood at $13.60[2] Loan Portfolio - The held-for-investment loan portfolio totaled $5.9 billion, with 98% being floating-rate and 98% being senior loans[2,4] - $316 million of loan repayment and sale proceeds were received during the quarter, while $42 million was funded on existing loan commitments[2] - Subsequent to quarter-end, $291 million of loan repayment proceeds were received[2] - Loans with a risk rating of 4 or higher constituted 46% of the loan portfolio as of March 31, 2025, compared to 45% at December 31, 2024[2] - The CECL reserve stood at 4.4% of UPB at March 31, 2025, with specific reserves of 16.4% on risk rated 5 loans and general reserves of 2.7%[2] Liquidity and Capitalization - Total liquidity was $136 million, including $128 million of cash, as of March 31, 2025[2] - Unencumbered loan UPB was $468 million, including $223 million classified as held-for-sale[2] - Net unfunded loan commitments decreased to $132 million[2] - Warehouse financing capacity totaled $5.1 billion, with $3.0 billion outstanding at March 31, 2025[2] - Outstanding financings decreased by $216 million during the quarter, including $35 million of deleveraging payments[2] - The net debt / equity ratio was 2.4x and the total leverage ratio was 2.8x as of March 31, 2025[2]
Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-05-08 12:16
Financial Performance (Q1 2025) - Net income per common share was $0.26, a recovery from the $(0.09) loss in Q4 2024[8] - Earnings available for distribution per common share increased to $0.64 from $0.53 in the previous quarter[8] - The company declared a common stock dividend of $0.34 per share, down from $0.40 in Q4 2024[8] - Book value per common share slightly decreased to $8.81 from $8.92[8] - Economic return was 2.6%, compared to (0.5)% in the prior quarter[8] - The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 7.1x from 6.7x at the end of the previous quarter[8] Portfolio Allocation and Activity - Agency RMBS represented 83.7% of the investment allocation[8] - Agency CMBS accounted for 15.0% of the investment allocation[8] - Non-Agency RMBS made up 0.1% of the investment allocation, totaling $5.9 billion[8] - Agency CMOs comprised 1.2% of the investment allocation[8] - The company issued $36.0 million of common stock under the at-the-market program[10] - The company repurchased Series C Preferred Stock with a carrying value of $2.2 million[10] - The company held $372 million of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments at quarter end[10] Portfolio Update (as of April 30) - Estimated book value per common share ranged from $7.74 to $8.06, a decrease from $8.81 at the end of Q1 2025[47] - The company reduced portfolio size by selling higher coupon Agency RMBS to lower risk in a volatile environment[47] - Estimated debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 6.4x from 7.1x at the end of Q1 2025[47] - The company held $336 million in cash and unencumbered investments[47]
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment (CHMI) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-06 21:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a GAAP net loss applicable to common stockholders of $9.3 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, compared to a comprehensive loss of $2.6 million, or $0.08 per diluted share [6][15]. - The book value per common share decreased to $3.58 from $3.82 at the end of Q4 2024, reflecting a decline of approximately 6.3% [7][17]. - The NAV was down approximately $7.5 million, or 3.2%, relative to December 31, 2024 [7]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MSR portfolio had an unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $17 billion and a market value of approximately $227 million, representing about 44% of equity capital [11]. - The RMBS portfolio accounted for approximately 39% of equity capital, with a weighted average three-month CPR of 5.8%, slightly up from 5.7% in the previous quarter [12][13]. - Prepayment speeds for the MSR portfolio averaged approximately 4.1%, down modestly from the previous quarter, while RMBS prepayment speeds remained low [12]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest rates ended the quarter at 4.25%, approximately 30 basis points lower quarter over quarter, but volatility increased due to tariff announcements [5][6]. - The company noted that mortgage performance was mixed, with higher coupon mortgages outperforming lower coupon mortgages [10]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to deploy capital into Agency RMBS and select MSRs, focusing on strong risk-adjusted return profiles while maintaining liquidity and prudent leverage [9]. - Management emphasized the importance of closely managing operating expenses to improve the expense ratio and capital structure over time [8]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for elevated rates until clear macro policy is established [10][11]. - The company is cautious regarding GSE reform, indicating that current market assumptions about government guarantees may not be well-defined [27][29]. Other Important Information - The company declared a dividend of $0.15 per common share for Q1 2025, paid on April 30, 2025 [18]. - Operating expenses for the quarter were reported at $3.8 million, benefiting from the elimination of management fees [17]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What would it take for the company to allocate more to the RMBS portfolio? - Management indicated that all reinvestment income has been directed towards MBS, and significant changes would require selling a portion of the MSR portfolio [23]. Question: Is there any movement in GSE reform affecting market pricing? - Management stated it is too early to tell, noting that while there have been movements at the GSEs, specific plans regarding government guarantees remain undefined [27][29]. Question: Can you provide a book value update for Q2? - The company reported a NAV down about 3.7% in April, leading to an estimated 7% book value per share before any dividends [36]. Question: How much of the EAD in Q1 was due to the roll-off of internalization expenses? - Approximately $0.02 of EAD in Q1 was attributed to savings from internalization and G&A [52]. Question: What are the general thoughts on MSR pricing and supply post-Rocket Cooper deal? - Management noted that volumes have been lower than the previous year, and no substantial changes in pricing dynamics have been observed [51].
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment (CHMI) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-05-06 20:30
Financial Performance - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $0.29 per share[7] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) was $0.17 per share[7] - The book value per common share decreased by 6.3% to $3.58, net of the quarterly dividend[8] - A dividend of $0.15 per share was declared and paid[8] - The company experienced a 2.4% total quarterly economic loss[8] Portfolio Metrics - The company's leverage ratio for the aggregate portfolio was 5.2x[8] - The net interest spread for RMBS was 3.6%[8] - The weighted average Constant Prepayment Rate (CPR) for RMBS was 5.8%[7] - The net CPR for Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) was 4.1%[7] Asset Composition - As of March 31, 2025, 76% of the asset investment composition (excluding cash) was in 30 Year RMBS and 24% was in MSRs[15]
Bimini Capital Management Announces First Quarter 2025 Results
Globenewswire· 2025-05-01 20:18
VERO BEACH, Fla., May 01, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bimini Capital Management, Inc. (OTCQB: BMNM), (“Bimini Capital,” “Bimini,” or the “Company”), today announced results of operations for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025. First Quarter 2025 Highlights Net income of $0.6 million, or $0.06 per common shareBook value per share of $0.74Company to discuss results on Friday, May 2, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET Management Commentary Commenting on the first quarter results, Robert E. Cauley, Chairman and Chief ...
New York Mortgage Trust(NYMT) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 14:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recurring earnings in Q1 2025 increased to a level consistent with the company's dividend of $0.20 per share, reflecting a strategic portfolio restructuring initiated two years ago [6][7] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) per share rose to $0.20 in Q1 2025 from $0.16 in Q4 2024, while quarterly EPS contribution from adjusted net interest income increased to $0.40 per share, up from $0.36 in the prior quarter [12][16] - GAAP book value and adjusted book value per share increased to $9.37 and $10.43 respectively, representing a 1% increase compared to the end of 2024 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency RMBS investments now account for over 50% of company assets, with approximately $1.5 billion purchased in Q1 2025, nearly four times more than the previous quarter [10][17] - In the residential credit sector, $397 million of whole loans were purchased, with a focus on bridge loans and rental loans [18][19] - The portfolio recourse leverage ratio decreased to 0.5 times from 1.1 times, reflecting successful securitizations in the residential loan sector [9][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced spread widening in Agency RMBS and residential credit, with current coupon agency spreads widening from 135 basis points to 143 basis points in Q1 2025 [22][23] - As of April 2025, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5% [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on Agency RMBS while also exploring opportunities in residential credit, particularly BPL rental loans [20][40] - The strategic shift towards more liquid agency RMBS is intended to enhance flexibility in capital allocation depending on market conditions [21][22] - The company plans to leverage its platform for service fee income in the near term, while continuing to optimize expected returns from its agency portfolio [8][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the geopolitical situation may lead to further market volatility, but they are prepared to deploy liquidity at attractive levels [20][21] - The company does not foresee immediate impacts from GSE reform on its activities, indicating a cautious approach to potential changes in the mortgage market [32][33] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to generate recurring income to support the current dividend, despite a challenging economic outlook [27] Other Important Information - The company recognized net unrealized gains of $118.2 million during the quarter, primarily from higher valuations in the agency RMBS portfolio [14] - General and administrative expenses increased slightly due to non-recurring employee severance costs related to restructuring initiatives [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of GSE reform on business and mortgage market - Management indicated that GSE reform could lead to higher mortgage rates and liquidity issues, but does not expect significant influence on activities in the near to medium term [32][33] Question: Update on book value performance in Q2 - As of April month-end, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5% [38] Question: Capital allocation strategy amidst market volatility - Management confirmed a continued focus on Agency RMBS and BPL, with a preference for BPL rental over BPL bridge loans [40][41] Question: Timing surrounding mezzanine and multifamily investments - The 10% payoff rate mentioned was year-to-date as of early April, with expectations for continued resolutions in the multifamily mezzanine portfolio [43] Question: Future capital allocation preferences - Management expressed a preference for Agency RMBS in the near term, while remaining flexible to shift focus based on market conditions [45]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings available for distribution per share of $0.72, consistent with the prior quarter, driven by lower average repo rates of 4.56% compared to 4.93% in the previous quarter [18] - The book value per share was $19.02, reflecting a modest decline of less than 1% quarter over quarter [18] - The economic return for Q1 was 3%, with individual business segments contributing positively despite a challenging macro environment [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency portfolio saw a notional growth of $3.5 billion, driven by purchases of intermediate coupon TBAs [9] - The Residential Credit portfolio ended the quarter at $6.6 billion in market value, with a decrease of $340 million quarter over quarter due to opportunistic sales and increased securitizations [11] - The Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio remained relatively unchanged at $3.3 billion in market value, with $28 billion in principal balance settled during Q1 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Economic leverage increased modestly to 5.7 turns, remaining at the low end of the historical range [6] - The housing market is showing signs of increased regional disparity, with some areas experiencing a modest reversal in home price appreciation trends [12] - Inventory levels have increased, with a year-over-year rise of 18%, impacting the spring selling season [58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a conservative leverage approach amidst market volatility, balancing the opportunity to increase leverage with the risks associated with high volatility [38] - The focus remains on agency investments as spreads have cheapened, while also continuing to grow the OBX platform for loan acquisition and securitization [76] - The company is strategically aligned with industry-leading sub-servicing partners to enhance efficiency and technological investment in the mortgage industry [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the impact of U.S. trade policy on consumer and business confidence, which may affect economic growth [7] - Despite the uncertain outlook, the company believes its diversified and actively managed portfolio positions it well to perform across various economic scenarios [17] - The management remains optimistic about the housing market's long-term stability due to low delinquencies and tight underwriting standards, despite short-term pullbacks in certain regions [62] Other Important Information - The company increased its common stock dividend to $0.70 per share, underscoring earnings momentum [6] - The total assets available for financing increased to approximately $7.5 billion, reflecting enhanced liquidity [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on book value quarter to date - The book value was off roughly 3.5% as of Tuesday evening, improving from a 4.5% decline post-Easter [26] Question: Outlook for spreads and regulatory impacts - Swap spreads have tightened due to volatility, and regulatory reforms are anticipated to positively impact market conditions in the future [27][33] Question: Thoughts on leverage given current market conditions - The company is maintaining a conservative leverage approach due to high volatility, despite wider spreads suggesting a potential increase in risk [37][39] Question: Supply-demand dynamics in the agency portfolio - There was strong demand from fixed income funds and banks, but foreign demand, particularly from Asian accounts, remains limited [87][88] Question: Impact of housing price moderation on the market - Housing prices have increased significantly since 2019, but recent inventory increases may lead to short-term pullbacks in certain regions [58][62]
New York Mortgage Trust(NYMT) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recurring earnings in Q1 2025 increased to a level consistent with the company's dividend of $0.20 per share, reflecting a strategic portfolio restructuring initiated two years ago [6][7] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) per share rose to $0.20 in Q1 2025 from $0.16 in Q4 2024, while quarterly EPS contribution from adjusted net interest income increased to $0.40 per share, up from $0.36 in the prior quarter [12][13] - GAAP book value and adjusted book value per share increased to $9.37 and $10.43 respectively, representing a 1% increase compared to the end of 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency RMBS investments now account for over 50% of company assets, with approximately $1.5 billion of Agency RMBS purchased in Q1 2025, nearly four times more than the previous quarter [11][18] - In the residential credit sector, $397 million of whole loans were purchased, with a focus on bridge loans and rental loans [19][20] - The portfolio recourse leverage ratio decreased to 0.5 times from 1.1 times, reflecting successful securitizations in the residential loan sector [10][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced spread widening in Agency RMBS and residential credit, with current coupon agency spreads widening from 135 basis points to 143 basis points [22] - As of April 2025, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5% [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on Agency RMBS while also exploring opportunities in residential credit, particularly BPL rental loans [21][41] - The strategic shift towards more liquid agency RMBS is intended to enhance flexibility in capital allocation depending on market conditions [21][22] - The company has reduced its JV equity exposure to less than 1% of the overall portfolio, indicating a shift in investment strategy [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for additional revenue generation through service fee income and highlighted the importance of operational efficiencies in supporting dividend coverage [8][12] - The company anticipates continued market volatility but is prepared to deploy liquidity into attractive investment opportunities as they arise [21][22] - Management does not foresee significant impacts from potential GSE reforms in the near to medium term [33][34] Other Important Information - The company recognized net unrealized gains of $118.2 million during the quarter, primarily from higher valuations in the agency RMBS portfolio [14] - General and administrative expenses increased slightly due to non-recurring employee severance costs related to restructuring initiatives [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of FHFA and GSEs changes on business - Management discussed potential GSE reforms, indicating that it could lead to higher mortgage rates and liquidity issues, but does not expect significant changes in the near term [33][34] Question: Update on book value performance in Q2 - As of April 2025, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5% [38] Question: Capital allocation strategy amidst market volatility - Management confirmed a continued focus on Agency RMBS and BPL, with a preference for BPL rental over BPL bridge loans [40][41] Question: Timing surrounding mezzanine and multifamily investments - The 10% payoff rate mentioned was year-to-date as of early April, with expectations for continued resolutions in the multifamily mezzanine portfolio [44] Question: Future capital allocation preferences - Management expressed a preference for Agency RMBS in the near term but acknowledged the potential for shifts depending on market conditions [46]
New York Mortgage Trust(NYMT) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-04-30 21:43
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. 2025 First Quarter Financial Summary These and other risks, uncertainties and factors, including the risk factors and other information described in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, as updated and supplemented from time to time, and our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other information that we file from time to time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), could ...