Summary of J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Mining - **Current Trends**: Global copper production is experiencing a 4% year-to-date increase through August, but growth is slowing due to recent supply disruptions. Global demand has risen by 7% year-to-date as of August, with notable contributions from China, although demand from the rest of the world (RoW) is declining. Global visible inventories have increased to approximately 730,000 tons, which is about 200,000 tons higher than in 2024 and at a five-year seasonal high [1][2][3]. Key Insights 1. **Production and Demand**: - Global copper production increased by 4% year-to-date through August, but there has been a year-over-year decline in output for July and August [1]. - Global demand for copper rose by 7% year-to-date as of August, with Chinese demand growth being offset by a decline in RoW consumption [1]. - The refined copper market is expected to face a deficit of 333,000 tons in 2026 and 162,000 tons in 2027 due to acute supply disruptions [2]. 2. **Price Movements**: - LME copper prices have increased by 25% this year, reaching $4.91 per pound, significantly outperforming aluminum, which saw an 11% increase [1]. - The forward curves for copper are slightly backwardated, indicating potential upside risks to prices due to recent supply disruptions pushing the market into a deficit [1]. 3. **Equity Preferences**: - J.P. Morgan continues to favor specific companies in the copper sector, including Capstone Copper (Overweight), BHP (Overweight), Antofagasta (Overweight), Freeport (Overweight), and First Quantum (Overweight) [1]. 4. **Regional Insights**: - In Chile, overall copper output is expected to remain flat at around 5 million tons per annum, with Codelco facing production challenges. Miners are focusing on technology and innovation to extend mine life and reduce costs, although regulatory reforms are slow [3]. - Labor and equipment markets are tightening, with new activities primarily centered on brownfield projects rather than major expansions [3]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - High-frequency data shows mixed signals: treatment charges and refining charges (TC/RCs) are firmly negative, while LME net speculative positioning is increasing. However, cancelled warrants and smelter operating rates are declining [1]. - The copper market is expected to tighten as Chinese demand begins to pull on the market, potentially leading to a bullish backdrop for LME copper prices [2]. Additional Important Points - **Global Inventory Trends**: The increase in global visible inventories to ~730,000 tons indicates a significant build-up, which could impact future pricing and supply dynamics [1]. - **Technological Innovations**: The industry is pushing for technological advancements, particularly in ore sorting and chloride-based leaching, to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3]. - **Investment Recommendations**: J.P. Morgan's coverage includes various companies with differing ratings, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks within the copper sector [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard, providing insights into the current state of the copper industry, production and demand trends, pricing dynamics, and investment recommendations.

Core Viewpoint - Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP is investigating potential claims against Freeport-McMoRan Inc. due to allegations of violations of federal securities laws related to safety issues at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, which resulted in significant investor losses [2][4]. Group 1: Allegations and Legal Actions - The complaint alleges that Freeport and its executives made false and misleading statements regarding safety at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, failing to disclose risks that could foreseeably lead to worker fatalities [4]. - Investors who purchased Freeport securities between February 15, 2022, and September 24, 2025, are reminded of the January 12, 2026 deadline to seek the role of lead plaintiff in the federal securities class action [2][9]. - The investigation is focused on the company's failure to ensure adequate safety measures, which constituted undisclosed risks of regulatory, litigation, and reputational damage [4]. Group 2: Incident and Stock Price Impact - On September 9, 2025, Freeport suspended mining activities at the Grasberg Block Cave after a significant incident trapped seven workers, leading to a stock price drop of $2.77, or 5.9%, closing at $43.89 per share [5]. - Following the tragic update on September 24, 2025, where two workers were confirmed dead, Freeport's stock fell by $7.69, or 17%, closing at $37.67 per share [6]. - An article published on September 25, 2025, highlighted the potential strain on Freeport's relationship with the Indonesian government due to the halt in production, resulting in a further stock decline of $2.33, or 6.2%, to close at $35.34 [7]. Group 3: Expert Opinions and Future Actions - An expert stated that the landslide incident at Freeport was preventable and should have been anticipated, indicating a lack of proper safety measures [8]. - Faruqi & Faruqi encourages anyone with information regarding Freeport's conduct, including whistleblowers and former employees, to come forward [9].

Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Securities Litigation Partner James (Josh) Wilson Encourages Investors Who Suffered Losses In Freeport-McMoran To Contact Him Directly To Discuss Their Options If you purchased or acquired securities in Freeport between February 15, 2022 and September 24, 2025 and would like to discuss your legal rights, call Faruqi & Faruqi partner Josh Wilson directly at 877-247-4292 or 212-983-9330 (Ext. 1310). [You may also click here for additional information] NEW YORK, Nov. 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSW ...

Core Insights - Ero Copper has seen significant changes in institutional ownership, with several large investors increasing their stakes in the company, indicating growing confidence in its prospects [1][7] - Analysts have mixed ratings on Ero Copper, with some upgrading their ratings while others have downgraded, reflecting differing views on the company's future performance [2] - The company's recent quarterly earnings report showed a miss on both earnings per share and revenue compared to analyst expectations, which may raise concerns among investors [4] Institutional Ownership - GMT Capital Corp increased its stake by 22.9%, owning 6,931,025 shares valued at $83.94 million after acquiring 1,292,100 shares [1] - Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. raised its position by 119.3%, now holding 1,628,030 shares worth $27.52 million after buying 885,630 shares [1] - TD Asset Management Inc. boosted its stake by 56.2%, owning 1,460,342 shares valued at $24.62 million after acquiring 525,252 shares [1] - Hillsdale Investment Management Inc. purchased a new stake worth approximately $6.69 million [1] - Sprott Inc. increased its holdings by 64.3%, now owning 748,185 shares valued at $9.07 million after acquiring 292,896 shares [1] - Hedge funds and institutional investors collectively own 71.30% of Ero Copper's stock [1] Analyst Ratings - Weiss Ratings maintained a "hold (c)" rating on Ero Copper [2] - Wall Street Zen upgraded Ero Copper from "hold" to "buy" [2] - Goldman Sachs raised the price target from $18.50 to $25.00 and assigned a "buy" rating [2] - Stifel Canada downgraded Ero Copper from "strong-buy" to "hold" [2] - Zacks Research downgraded the stock from "strong-buy" to "hold" [2] - The average rating is "Hold" with a consensus target price of $25.00 [2] Stock Performance - Ero Copper shares opened at $25.25, with a market cap of $2.62 billion [3] - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.83, a quick ratio of 0.80, and a current ratio of 1.05 [3] - The stock has a one-year low of $9.30 and a high of $25.78, with a 50-day moving average of $21.47 and a 200-day moving average of $17.18 [3] - The P/E ratio stands at 18.43, and the stock has a beta of 1.25 [3] Earnings Report - Ero Copper reported earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $0.36 by $0.09 [4] - The company generated revenue of $177.10 million, significantly below the analyst estimates of $309.30 million [4] - Ero Copper had a return on equity of 17.96% and a net margin of 26.63% [4] - Analysts predict an EPS of 0.71 for the current year [4] Company Overview - Ero Copper Corp. is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil, focusing on copper concentrate production from the Caraíba operations [5]

Core Viewpoint - TNR Gold Corp is strategically reviewing M&A opportunities while positioning itself as a leader in the green energy metals and gold sectors, aiming to maximize shareholder value through its diversified asset portfolio and partnerships with major industry players [1][2][6]. Strategic Priorities - The company focuses on maximizing shareholder value by preventing dilution, reducing administrative expenses, and delivering returns above market averages [3]. - Recent M&A interest indicates successful marketing efforts by management, enhancing the company's visibility in the mining and investment sectors [6]. Asset Overview - TNR Gold holds a 1.5% NSR royalty on the Mariana Lithium Project in Argentina, which has commenced production with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium chloride [17][18]. - The company also has a 0.4% NSR royalty on the Los Azules Copper Project, which is positioned as a low-cost producer of high-purity copper cathodes, with a feasibility study confirming strong economic returns [20][22][52]. - TNR's 90% stake in the Shotgun Gold Project in Alaska includes 705,960 ounces of inferred gold resources, with plans to attract a major mining partner for further development [10][66]. Financial Performance and Strategy - The company has successfully repaid its investment loan, allowing it to present its assets free from encumbrance, which has justified management's rejection of low-ball offers [6][48]. - TNR Gold's share price has outperformed the market average during challenging times, reinforcing its strategy as a hedge in investment portfolios [6]. Future Growth and Development - Management is exploring strategic alliances with major mining companies to unlock higher valuations of its royalty holdings and generate new capital without diluting current shareholders [10][12]. - The company is considering a potential spinout of the Shotgun Gold Project into a stand-alone entity, AmeriGold, to enhance value creation [10][13]. Industry Context - The green energy revolution relies heavily on critical metals like copper, and TNR Gold aims to contribute to this transition by delivering responsibly produced materials [51][52]. - The Los Azules project is designed to be one of the world's first regenerative copper mines, targeting carbon neutrality by 2038 [40][52].

Core Viewpoint - Taseko Mines Ltd. (NYSEAmerican:TGB) has reached a nine-year high, driven by optimistic copper price forecasts from UBS, which predicts significant price increases in the coming quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Taseko Mines extended its winning streak to three days, with the stock price reaching a peak of $5.13 during intra-day trading before closing at $5.04, reflecting a 10.77% increase [1]. - The stock's performance is attributed to investor confidence following UBS's positive outlook on copper prices [1]. Group 2: Copper Price Forecast - UBS forecasts copper prices to rise to $11,500 per ton in March 2026, $12,000 in June, and further to $12,500 and $13,000 in September and December, respectively [1]. - The forecast considers ongoing supply risks and lower inventories, which are expected to maintain tight market conditions [2]. - UBS anticipates a copper deficit of 230,000 tons in 2025 and 407,000 tons in 2026, primarily due to reduced output from Freeport McMoran's Grasberg mine [2]. Group 3: Company Developments - Taseko Mines confirmed a tragic accident at its Gibraltar mine in British Columbia, resulting in the death of a contract worker, leading to a halt in all activities at the site until a full investigation is completed [2]. - The company expressed condolences and emphasized the health and safety of its employees, offering support services to those affected by the incident [2].

Core Insights - The competition to scale copper production is intensifying, with Hudbay Minerals (HBM) and Teck Resources (TECK) representing two distinct future pathways for copper leadership [1][2] - Both companies have shown strong year-to-date performance despite operational challenges, focusing on long-term growth assets [1] Hudbay Minerals (HBM) - HBM has improved its balance sheet, reduced costs, and de-risked its Copper World project, achieving a year-to-date stock performance increase of 89.5% [3][5] - The company reported consolidated cash costs of negative 2 cents/lb and sustaining cash costs of $1.65/lb, with an improved full-year cash cost guidance of 15-35 cents/lb [5][6] - HBM has generated nine consecutive quarters of free cash flow and reduced net debt to 0.5x EBITDA, ending the third quarter with $611 million in cash and total liquidity of $1.04 billion [6][10] - The Copper World project, supported by a joint venture with Mitsubishi, is advancing towards a 2026 sanction decision, with first production expected in 2029 [10][11] Teck Resources (TECK) - TECK reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion for the third quarter of 2025, a 19% year-over-year increase, with exceptional liquidity of $9.5 billion [14] - The merger with Anglo American is a significant event, creating "Anglo Teck," a top-five global copper producer with 1.2 million tons of annual capacity and $800 million in annual recurring synergies [15][25] - At the Quebrada Blanca (QB) operation, TECK faces tailings management facility constraints but has a plan to eliminate these by 2027, with a resource base that remains largely untapped [16][17] - TECK's zinc business has also performed well, contributing significantly to earnings [18] Valuation Comparison - HBM and TECK are trading at forward 12-month price to sales multiples of 2.76 and 2.65, respectively, both above the industry average [20] - HBM is viewed as more stable in the near term due to consistent free cash flow and improving costs, while TECK is seen as having a more substantial long-term growth potential [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Amerigo Resources Ltd. has received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to proceed with a new normal course issuer bid (NCIB), reaffirming its commitment to disciplined capital allocation and shareholder value enhancement [1][2]. Group 1: NCIB Details - The new NCIB allows Amerigo to repurchase up to 11,700,000 common shares, approximately 10% of its public float as of November 18, 2025 [2]. - The NCIB will commence on December 2, 2025, and may continue until December 1, 2026, or until completed or terminated by the Company [5]. - Under the previous NCIB, which started on December 2, 2024, Amerigo repurchased and cancelled 3,967,984 shares at a weighted average price of Cdn$1.80 per share [5]. Group 2: Capital Return Strategy - Amerigo's Capital Return Strategy includes quarterly dividends of Cdn$0.04 per share, performance dividends, and share buybacks, aimed at delivering value to shareholders [6]. - Since the implementation of the Capital Return Strategy in October 2021, the total capital returned to shareholders amounts to Cdn$93.7 million, comprising Cdn$30.6 million in shares repurchased and Cdn$63.1 million in dividends paid [9]. - The minimum goal for the NCIB is to maintain a constant share count year-over-year and enhance long-term shareholder value [2][8]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Purchase Limits - Amerigo's average daily trading volume for the six months ending October 31, 2025, was 272,958 shares, setting the daily purchase limit under the NCIB at 68,239 shares, which is 25% of the ADTV [3]. - The Company may make one block purchase exceeding the daily purchase restriction once per calendar week [3]. Group 4: Share Purchase Mechanism - Shares under the NCIB will be purchased in open market transactions on the TSX at the prevailing market price and will be cancelled [4]. - The actual number of shares purchased and the timing of such purchases will be determined by Amerigo [4].

Core Viewpoints - The copper price experienced three rises and three falls from January to November 2025, showing a fluctuating upward trend, with a range of $8,539 to $11,068 per ton and an average price of $9,704 per ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 6%, and is expected to break historical highs by the end of the year [2][3] - The main factors influencing copper prices in 2025 return to traditional frameworks, highly correlated with commodity attributes, while financial attributes show a negative correlation [2][3] - The demand for copper remains robust, but supply sentiment reacts more strongly than the actual fundamental performance [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, global copper supply and demand maintained a tight balance, with an average monthly supply surplus of 0.8 thousand tons [2][3] - The global refined copper demand in 2024 is projected to have China accounting for 58% and the U.S. for 6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% from 2016 to 2024 [3] - The refined copper production in China and the U.S. for 2024 is estimated at 1,557 million tons and 162 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 1.3% and 0.5% [3] Price Forecast for 2026 - The copper market is expected to be in a state of tight balance in 2026, with a supply gap of 50 thousand tons, and global supply projected at 28.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while demand is expected to reach 29.01 million tons, also a year-on-year increase of 3% [4] - The copper price is anticipated to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching an average of $10,500 per ton in 2026 due to tightening supply and sustained demand [4] Investment Strategy - For upstream mining resources, companies with significant resource releases and development advantages are expected to benefit, with recommendations for Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - In the downstream sector, companies with high barriers to processing and strong performance in downstream industries are favored, with recommendations for Hailiang Co., Ltd. and attention to companies like Bowei Alloys and Srey New Materials [6]

Industry Overview - The global copper market is entering a new era characterized by structural tightness due to supply constraints and surging demand from electrification and renewables, creating a compelling medium-to-long-term investment window [1][2] - Supply is tightening with production growth expected to be muted at 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, which is insufficient to meet global demand [3] - The deficit outlook indicates a shortfall of around 230,000 tonnes in 2025, increasing to over 400,000 tonnes in 2026, highlighting the fragility of the supply chain [4] Demand Dynamics - Demand for copper is accelerating across various sectors, including electrification, grid renewal, renewable energy expansion, and data-center infrastructure, with electric vehicles requiring significantly more copper than traditional vehicles [5][8] - Demand is projected to expand by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by AI-driven power infrastructure and faster EV adoption, indicating a robust consumption profile [8] Pricing and Market Sentiment - The price trajectory suggests a market struggling to find balance, with forecasts indicating copper prices could reach approximately $13,000 per tonne by late 2026 [9][11] - The current environment is viewed as the early stages of a longer repricing cycle, necessitating structurally higher prices to incentivize capital commitments for rebuilding global supply [11] Investment Opportunities in Australia - Australia is emerging as a prime destination for investors due to its stable regulatory environment and high-quality ASX-listed producers, offering both stability and upside potential [2][12] - The ASX-listed copper stocks are well-positioned to benefit from the structural shift in the copper market, with companies identified that combine balance sheet resilience and strong operating leverage [14] Key ASX-listed Companies - **BHP Group (ASX: BHP)**: The world's largest copper miner, providing stability through diversification across various commodities and maintaining financial strength amid market fluctuations [16][18] - **Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR)**: A mid-to-large-cap producer with a market value of approximately $7.52 billion, positioned to capture elevated margins as supply deficits deepen [23][25] - **Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS)**: A high-growth mid-tier company with a clear expansion pathway and strong price momentum, expected to benefit from the widening structural copper deficit [27][29] - **Develop Global (ASX: DVP)**: Focused on the Sulphur Springs project, showcasing strong financial metrics and a stable regulatory environment, making it a compelling investment proposition [31][34] - **Hot Chili (ASX: HCH)**: Advancing the Costa Fuego project in Chile, with strategic advantages in resource consolidation and logistical achievements, enhancing operational certainty [36][37] Conclusion - The copper market is transitioning from a cyclical commodity to a long-duration strategic asset, with structural constraints on supply and intensifying demand, presenting significant investment opportunities for those positioned early in this shift [39]