Core Insights - LVMH's liquidity contract with Oddo BHF SCA shows significant trading activity in the first half of 2025, with a total of 3,203 purchases and 3,240 sales of shares, indicating active management of liquidity [1][2][8] Summary by Category Transactions Overview - Total purchases amounted to 234,460 shares for a total of €135,447,405.90, while total sales reached 203,460 shares for €117,943,246.10 [2][8] - The liquidity account showed a cash balance of €9,887,574.90 and 52,000 shares remaining at the end of the reporting period [2][8] Monthly Breakdown - In January 2025, notable transactions included 3,000 shares purchased on January 2 for €1,875,000 and 5,000 shares sold on January 15 for €3,214,000 [1][3] - February 2025 saw 7,000 shares purchased on January 29 for €4,994,755.20 and 3,000 shares sold on February 12 for €2,062,000 [3][4] - March 2025 included significant purchases such as 8,500 shares on March 4 for €5,714,191.90 and sales of 4,000 shares on March 14 for €2,458,700 [4][5] Key Dates and Amounts - On April 3, 2025, 6,000 shares were purchased for €3,320,800, while on April 10, 2025, 3,000 shares were sold for €1,621,800 [5][6] - May 2025 transactions included 5,000 shares sold on May 12 for €3,102,486.40 and 3,000 shares purchased on May 22 for €1,451,150 [6][7] - In June 2025, the last recorded transaction was a purchase of 1,000 shares for €444,600 on June 30 [7][8]

Financial Performance - Watches of Switzerland expects its profit margin to be hit this year [1] Market Trends - US import tariffs are expected to impact Watches of Switzerland's profit margin [1]

Italian fashion house Armani Group reported a 5 percent drop in sales last year after the luxury sector was hit by macro-economic uncertainty and slowing demand in China https://t.co/GSUT3QNlw3 ...

Group 1 - LVMH has experienced a decline of over 40% from its all-time high, resulting in a loss exceeding €100 billion in market capitalization [1] - The current valuation of LVMH is considered minimally attractive despite the significant decline [1]

Market Trends - European and American luxury brands are experiencing declining sales in China due to economic challenges stemming from real estate price collapse [1] - Laopu Gold, a domestic jewelry brand, is thriving by targeting the aspirations of the middle class affected by the economic downturn [1] Competitive Landscape - Laopu Gold is expanding its product range with gold rings, necklaces, and bracelets [1] - Laopu Gold's success contrasts with the struggles of European and American luxury brands in the Chinese market [1]

China’s homegrown jewelry superstar is flying high https://t.co/v4SgtxXtKJ ...

Brand Portfolio and Revenue - Lanvin Group manages a diverse portfolio of 5 iconic luxury heritage brands[10, 21] - In 2024, Lanvin's revenue was €83 million, representing 25% of the group's revenue[16] - Wolford's 2024 revenue was €88 million, accounting for 27% of the group's revenue[17] - Sergio Rossi's 2024 revenue was €42 million, which is 13% of the group's revenue[16] - St John's 2024 revenue reached €79 million, making up 24% of the group's revenue[19] - Caruso generated €37 million in revenue in 2024, contributing 11% to the group's revenue[16] Financial Performance and Challenges - The group's global revenue for FY 2024 was €329 million, a 23% decrease compared to FY 2023[80] - The group's Adjusted EBITDA in 2024 was -€92320 thousand, representing -28% of revenue[87, 132] - The group is implementing measures to reduce G&A expenses and improve working capital management[80] Strategic Initiatives - The group is focused on streamlining expenses and enhancing operational efficiency[77] - The group is upgrading its store network with disciplined new openings and a strategic focus on key markets[97] - The group is aiming to reduce discounts and sharpen product offerings to focus on core and less seasonal categories[95]

Brand Revival & Market Position - Coach experienced a significant decline in market cap, losing approximately 60% between its 2012 peak and mid-2014, but has since rebounded [1] - In 2024, Coach surpassed Michael Kors to secure the second position in the US luxury handbag market [2] - Coach was recognized as the fifth hottest fashion brand in Q4 2025, marking a climb of ten spots from its previous ranking [2] Strategic Shifts & Initiatives - Coach shifted its focus towards Gen Z consumers, recognizing their influence on fashion trends [2] - The company hired Stuart Vevers as executive creative director to introduce a more youthful aesthetic and move away from heavy logo designs [7] - Coach closed underperforming stores and reduced discounting to rebuild brand equity [8] - Tapestry acquired Stuart Weitzman for $574 million in 2015 and Kate Spade for $24 billion in 2017 [9] - The holding company Coach Incorporated was renamed Tapestry in October [9] Financial Performance & Growth - In 2021, Coach's sales grew by 16% year-over-year and 15% compared to pre-pandemic levels [10] - Coach accounted for 74% of Tapestry's revenue that year [11] - Tapestry's market cap has expanded by approximately 140% over the last five years [11] - Coach's revenue increased by 15% in Q3 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year [14] Market Dynamics & Future Opportunities - Demand for Coach's products increased by 332% year-over-year [15] - Coach generates about 60% of its sales in North America, with growing international appeal, especially in Asia [17] - The brand sees significant growth potential with the increasing number of women globally who can afford a handbag over $100 [21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Insights - **US Exceptionalism and Asset Performance**: The theme of US exceptionalism, USD strength, and US asset performance has garnered significant attention. Since 2012, the MSCI World Index in USD has increased by over 3 times, while a leading Norwegian asset manager's Global Equity Fund (FX-unhedged) has seen a 7x increase, indicating a greater propensity for non-USD investors to diversify their portfolios [1][1][1] - **Decline in US Student Visa Applications**: There has been a steep decline in US student visa applications, with the rejection rate doubling. Conversely, UK student visa applications have increased by 20% year-over-year, and applications for UK citizenship from US citizens have surged by 26% year-over-year, with record applications in March and April [3][3][3] - **Investor Interest in Large-Cap Tech and AI Stocks**: Investor appetite for large-cap technology stocks has risen again, with notable outperformance of the Magnificent Seven (Mag7) compared to the S&P 500. There is also increased interest in perceived AI winners, with strategies focusing on long positions in AI winners and short positions in AI-at-risk stocks approaching new highs [5][6][6] - **Strong Q1 EPS Growth and Seasonal Patterns**: The first quarter has shown standout EPS growth, with continuous news on increased use cases and adoption of technology. There is no slowdown in spending or investment, as evidenced by recent news regarding Softbank and TSMC. July is historically the strongest month for Nasdaq returns, which has been frequently cited by analysts [8][9][9] - **Impact of Fiscal Concerns on Mega-Cap Tech**: There is speculation that mega-cap tech companies may benefit from an increasingly precarious fiscal situation. Higher interest rates typically imply a higher cost of capital, but companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows may become more attractive in uncertain economic conditions [5][10][10] Economic Activity and Market Performance - **Uneven Economic Activity**: The current trajectory of economic activity is described as unusually uneven, with a notable slowdown in German weekly activity and no rebound in US retailer imports following a collapse in April and May. The European economic surprise index has outperformed the US index, highlighting the complexity of the current economic landscape [11][11][11] - **European Equity Performance**: Despite the uneven macro data and the upcoming tariff deadline on July 9th, European equities have performed well year-to-date. However, the top five largest stocks in Europe have not contributed to this performance, with both LVMH and Novo Nordisk down over 20% year-to-date [15][18][18] - **Revisiting LVMH Investment Thesis**: The investment thesis for LVMH is being revisited, with a recommendation to buy despite being below consensus for the rest of the year. The diverging outlooks for brands in the luxury sector present a compelling alpha opportunity, contrasting with the performance of European big oils [20][20][20] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted significant trends in US and European markets, particularly in technology and luxury sectors. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are influencing investor behavior and market dynamics, with a focus on diversification and sector-specific opportunities.

Market Trends & Tariff Impact - US watch purchases surged in April and May due to tariff concerns [1] - Primary brands are throttling supply to the US market due to tariffs, leading to price increases [1] - The market is in an uncertain state as prices adjust to the speculative tariff environment [2] - A pricing correction occurred after June 2022, with watches previously valued 40% higher [3] - The market is seeing prices creep back up due to the current tariff environment [4] Valuation & Demand - Demand for watches remains strong [2] - Many Rolex watches are still trading at double retail prices [3] - Watch valuations, while still high, have decreased from the post-pandemic boom [3][4] - The market remains frothy with massive multiples [4]