Q2 2025 Financial Performance - Net sales decreased by (5.1%) compared to Q2 2024[50] - Comparable sales declined by (4.2%)[50] - Gross margin increased by 28 basis points to 39.9% compared to 39.6% in Q2 2024[50, 52] - SG&A expense decreased by (4.1%) compared to last year[50] - Adjusted operating income was $161 million[50] - Adjusted net income was $64 million, or $0.56 of adjusted earnings per diluted share[50] Balance Sheet and Leverage - Net debt + leases to adjusted EBITDAR leverage ratio is 2.6x when adjusting for actual lease periods exercised, down from the unadjusted ratio of 4.4x[59, 61] - Merchandise inventories decreased to $2.994 billion from $3.151 billion[64] 2025 Outlook - Net sales are expected to decrease by (5%) to (6%) versus 2024[68] - Comparable sales are expected to decrease by (4%) to (5%)[68] - Adjusted operating margin is projected to be 2.5% to 2.7%[68] - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be $0.50 to $0.80[68]

Swiss luxury giant Richemont is expanding its newly acquired Italian jewelry brand Vhernier in Asia with an upcoming store in Hong Kong. https://t.co/KW0qtPGcK3 ...

Laopu Gold’s revenue and profit growth topped estimates in the first half as the Chinese jeweler’s pieces, which blend traditional craftsmanship with rich cultural motifs, soar in popularity among middle class Chinese shoppers https://t.co/2QqJ993Hvr ...

Core Insights - Fossil Group, Inc. reported a second quarter 2025 net sales of $220 million, a decrease of 15.2% compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to category softness and a decline in smartwatch sales [5][11] - The company achieved a gross margin of 57.5%, an increase of 490 basis points year-over-year, attributed to improved product margins and reduced freight costs [5][11] - Operating income for the second quarter was $8 million, with an operating margin of 3.9%, marking a significant improvement from a loss of $34 million in the prior year [11][12] - Fossil Group announced a comprehensive refinancing plan aimed at strengthening its balance sheet and increasing liquidity [3][4] Financial Performance - Net sales for the second quarter totaled $220.4 million, down from $260 million in Q2 2024, with declines across all major regions: 19% in the Americas, 14% in Europe, and 12% in Asia [5][11] - Gross profit was $126.7 million, a decline of 7.4% from $136.9 million in the previous year, but gross margin improved to 57.5% from 52.6% [5][11] - Operating expenses decreased by 30.8% to $118.2 million, representing 53.7% of net sales compared to 65.7% in the prior year [5][6] Outlook and Guidance - The company raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, reflecting strong year-to-date results and ongoing progress in its turnaround strategy [8][12] - Worldwide net sales are expected to decline in the mid-teens, an improvement from previous guidance of a decline in the mid to high teens [12] - Adjusted operating margin is anticipated to be break-even to slightly positive, compared to prior guidance of negative low single digits [12] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of July 5, 2025, Fossil Group had total liquidity of $110.6 million, including $109.9 million in cash and cash equivalents [7] - Total debt stood at $179 million, with inventories decreasing by 11.9% to $178.1 million compared to the previous year [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - Signet's stock performance has lagged behind the broader market, with a recent decline of 3.26% while the S&P 500 gained 0.07% [1] Company Performance - Signet's shares have increased by 9.01% over the past month, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.27% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.71% during the same period [1] - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $1.21, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% from the same quarter last year, with revenue projected at $1.5 billion, indicating a growth of 0.44% year-over-year [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $9.12 per share and revenue at $6.76 billion, showing increases of 2.01% and 0.8% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates and Valuation - Recent changes in analyst estimates indicate optimism regarding Signet's business and profitability, with the Zacks Rank currently at 2 (Buy) [3][5] - Signet's Forward P/E ratio is 9.51, which is a discount compared to the industry average of 18.41 [5] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.78, significantly lower than the Retail - Jewelry industry's average PEG ratio of 2.29 [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Jewelry industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 57, placing it in the top 24% of over 250 industries [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 200% increase in stock price over the last five years, doubling the S&P 500's return during the same period [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Opportunities - Costco's sales have accelerated post-pandemic, with annualized revenue growth of about 11% from fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024, compared to 8% from fiscal 2010 to 2019 [2] - The company has substantial growth opportunities in e-commerce and non-food sales, with e-commerce sales increasing nearly 16% year over year last quarter [6][7] - Costco's competitive advantage lies in its membership model, with nearly 80 million paying households, allowing it to offer low prices and continue expanding [4] Group 2: Expansion Plans - As of the recent quarter, Costco operates 914 warehouses globally, with plans to open 24 new locations in high-quality markets such as Sweden, Japan, South Korea, and Canada [5] - The company is experiencing double-digit sales growth in various non-food categories, including jewelry, toys, and home goods, indicating strong demand for diverse product offerings [8] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Costco's stock trades at a high earnings multiple of 54 times forward earnings, significantly above the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of 26 [9] - The current P/E ratio is also above Costco's five-year average of 44, raising concerns about the sustainability of such a high valuation given the slowing sales momentum in e-commerce and non-food sales [10][11] - Analysts expect long-term earnings growth at an annualized rate of 9%, which may not justify the current high P/E, potentially leading to disappointing returns for investors [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hysan Development (14 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), and Wharf REIC (1997 HK) [5][32][32] Core Insights - Hong Kong's retail sales grew by 2.4% year-on-year in May 2025, marking the end of a 14-month decline, with expectations for a full-year decline of only 3% in 2025 [2][8] - The positive wealth effect from financial markets and an increase in visitor arrivals, which rose by 12% year-on-year to approximately 24 million in the first half of 2025, are expected to support domestic spending [2][4] - Retailers focusing on discretionary spending, such as CTF Jewellery and Sa Sa International, have shown improved sales, while mall operators like Link REIT are expected to face ongoing rental pressures despite some tenant sales resilience [3][4] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - Retail sales in Hong Kong turned positive in May 2025 after a prolonged decline, with a 2.4% year-on-year increase, reversing a 2.3% decline in April [2][8] - The retail market is anticipated to stabilize, with a projected narrowing of the sales decline in the second half of 2025 [2][8] Retail Performance by Category - The largest increase in retail spending was seen in Cosmetics, which rose by 8.7% year-on-year, followed by Other categories at 7.6% and Department Store Sales at 6.3% [9][13] - Certain categories, including Jewellery and Fuels, experienced declines, with Jewellery down 3.2% year-on-year [9][13] Company-Specific Insights - Hysan Development's mall portfolio is expected to benefit from the positive wealth effect, with a target price of HKD 18.60, implying a 28.3% upside from the current price [5][32] - Link REIT is projected to maintain a resilient distribution per unit (DPU) supported by lower borrowing costs and its diversified portfolio, with a target price of HKD 45.00, indicating a 6.6% upside [5][32] - Wharf REIC is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of HKD 30.00, reflecting a 33.0% upside, driven by expected growth in tourist spending [5][32]

Market Trends - European and American luxury brands are experiencing declining sales in China due to economic challenges stemming from real estate price collapse [1] - Laopu Gold, a domestic jewelry brand, is thriving by targeting the aspirations of the middle class affected by the economic downturn [1] Competitive Landscape - Laopu Gold is expanding its product range with gold rings, necklaces, and bracelets [1] - Laopu Gold's success contrasts with the struggles of European and American luxury brands in the Chinese market [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group with a 12-month target price of HK$9.00, indicating a downside potential of 26.7% from the current price of HK$12.28 [21][23]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 dividend payout, QTD tracking, and FY26 operating profit guidance were weaker than market expectations, with a FY26 topline/SSSG target of low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage growth under pressure due to negative SSSG in April and May [1][5]. - The company reported a 15.1% year-over-year decrease in total sales for 2HFY25, with a basic dividend of HK$0.32 per share, which was below the expected HK$0.50 [2][6]. - The management highlighted a focus on brand transformation and new product launches, including a high jewelry collection aimed at high-value clients, as a strategic move to enhance market presence [5][18]. Summary by Sections FY25 Results - 2HFY25 net income and operating profit were 4% and 2% below Goldman Sachs estimates, respectively, primarily due to less gross profit margin expansion [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2HFY25 was reported at 28.0%, up 480 basis points year-over-year, driven by a surge in gold prices and an improved product mix, although it was slightly below the expected 28.8% [10]. - The company declared a full-year dividend of HK$0.52 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of 4% [2][12]. QTD SSSG Tracking - The QTD same-store sales growth (SSSG) for April and May was -2.7% for direct stores in Mainland China and +1.3% in Hong Kong and Macau, both below expectations [3][13]. - The management noted a sequential month-over-month improvement in SSSG, but the outlook for June is expected to show a decline due to a tougher comparison base [3][14]. FY26 Outlook - The company anticipates a low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage sales growth for FY26, with expectations of a decline in gross profit margin and operating profit margin due to less support from gold price surges [4][15]. - Management expects to maintain inventory turnover days at 320 days and plans to open 20 new image stores in FY26, focusing on store quality and productivity [14][16]. - The product pipeline includes continued launches of new collections, with a specific emphasis on high jewelry to cater to high-value clients [18].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported net sales of **$20.97 billion** for the month, representing an increase of **6.8%** from **$19.64 billion** in the same period last year [3] Sales Performance - Comparable sales results for the month were as follows: - **U.S.**: **4.1%** - **Canada**: **3.3%** - **Other International**: **6.6%** - **Total Company**: **4.3%** - **E-commerce**: **11.6%** [3] - When excluding impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, comparable sales were: - **U.S.**: **5.5%** - **Canada**: **6.3%** - **Other International**: **8.4%** - **Total Company**: **6%** - **E-commerce**: **12%** [4] Traffic and Transaction Insights - Comparable traffic or frequency increased by **3.4%** worldwide and **2.8%** in the U.S. [4] - The average worldwide selling price per gallon of gas decreased by approximately **10.4%** year-over-year [5] - Average transaction value increased by **0.9%**, and when excluding gas deflation and foreign exchange, it was up **2.5%** [5] Regional Performance - Strongest comparable sales in the U.S. were observed in the **Northwest**, **Midwest**, and **Los Angeles** regions [6] - Internationally, the best results were in **Mexico**, **Taiwan**, and **Korea** [6] Merchandising Highlights - Foods and sundries showed positive mid to high single-digit growth, with strong performance in: - **Cooler** - **Candy** - **Frozen Foods** - Fresh foods increased by high single digits, particularly in: - **Meat** - **Bakery** - Non-foods also performed well with mid single-digit growth, especially in: - **Jewelry** - **Majors** - **Gift Cards** - Ancillary business sales declined by low to mid single digits, while pharmacy, optical, and hearing aid departments were top performers [7][8] Challenges and Risks - The negative impact of foreign currencies on total and comparable sales was approximately: - **Canada**: **-1.6%** - **Other International**: **-1.0%** - **Total Company**: **-0.4%** [5] - Gas price deflation negatively impacted total reported comparable sales by approximately **-1.3%** [5] - The negative impact of cannibalization was approximately **-70 basis points** for the company in May [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming June reporting period will include five weeks, starting from June 2 and ending July 6, compared to the previous year's five weeks from June 3 to July 7 [8]