Housing Market Insights - Housing Starts for July reached 1.43 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units, significantly exceeding the projected 1.29 million and the revised 1.36 million from the previous month, marking the highest level since February and the third-best month in the past year [2] - Building Permits fell to 1.35 million, below the expected 1.39 million and the downwardly revised 1.39 million from the prior month, indicating a fourth consecutive monthly decline, reminiscent of levels seen during the Covid pandemic [3] Multi-family vs. Single-family Housing - Multi-family housing saw a substantial increase of +11.6% month over month and +27% year over year, suggesting strong demand for apartment and condo living despite high supply [4] - Single-family housing growth was positive but lagged behind multi-family, with increases of +2.8% month over month and +8% year over year, impacted by high mortgage rates keeping potential buyers sidelined [5] Home Depot Performance - Home Depot reported Q2 earnings of $4.68 per share, missing expectations by 3 cents, resulting in a -0.64% earnings surprise, marking the second consecutive earnings miss [6] - Revenues for the quarter were $45.38 billion, slightly missing expectations by -0.5%, but still reflecting a nearly +5% year-over-year increase; the company maintained its fiscal year guidance, contributing to a +1.6% rise in stock price during early trading [7] Upcoming Market Events - Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, a proponent of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, is scheduled for appearances today, ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which may provide insights into potential future rate cuts [8] - Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers is set to report fiscal Q3 earnings, with estimates indicating a slight year-over-year decline in earnings (-0.28%) but a revenue increase of +4.56% compared to the previous year [9]

Tuesday, August 19, 2025Homebuilding news takes center stage this morning — in fact, this week has important housing data all through it — with Housing Starts and Building Permits for July pointing in two distinctly different directions. Pre-market futures were already showing some improvement from overnight lows, but have pointed north on the new data.Housing Starts, Building Permits Point to Big DifferencesLast month, Housing Starts came in at multi-month highs to 1.43 million seasonally adjusted, annuali ...

Economic Outlook - The analysis considers scenarios reminiscent of the 1990s with low inflationary growth or President Trump's first term [1] - Higher interest rates are creating distributional issues, especially in housing and for lower-income households with high credit card debt [1] - A significant capex boom is underway, driven by AI and tax policies [1] Housing Market - Home building is currently struggling [2] - Constraining home building could lead to inflation in the future [2] - A rate cut could stimulate a boom or pickup in home building, potentially lowering prices in the future [3]

Company Overview - Tri Pointe Homes is one of the largest homebuilders in the U.S., operating in 12 states and the District of Columbia, recognized for customer experience, innovative design, and environmentally responsible practices [6] - The company builds premium homes and communities with strong ties to the communities it serves, having won multiple Builder of the Year awards and named 2024 Developer of the Year [6] Leadership Appointment - Robert Norton has been appointed as the division president of Tri Pointe's Coastal Carolinas division, bringing over two decades of homebuilding and financial leadership experience [1][11] - Norton will oversee operations, sales, land acquisitions, and community development across the division's growing footprint [1][11] Strategic Focus - In his new role, Norton will focus on advancing the division's pipeline of single-family and townhome communities in Bluffton, Beaufort, and other Lowcountry locations [2] - He aims to strengthen community connections, expand trade partnerships, and enhance the division's mission to create thoughtfully designed, amenity-rich neighborhoods [2] Market Insights - South Carolina is experiencing significant population growth, with an estimated 1.7% increase from July 2023 to July 2024, adding approximately 91,000 residents [5] - Bluffton is one of the fastest-growing towns in the state, with an annual growth rate of 6.13% and a 40% increase since 2020, reaching an estimated 39,856 residents in 2025 [5] - Beaufort County has seen a population increase of over 20% from 2010 to 2022, with an estimated population of 204,643 in 2025 [5] Leadership Background - Norton previously served as division president for Ashton Woods Homes, where he led the Charleston operation to over 700 annual closings and secured a top-three market share position [3] - His background in finance and accounting, along with experience in launching homebuilding brands and innovative community concepts, positions him for success in Tri Pointe's strategic expansion [3]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett was a net seller of stocks for the 11th consecutive quarter in Q2 2025, but he also invested $3.9 billion in 12 stocks, including three new positions [1][3] - Half of the purchases involved increasing existing positions, notably in Chevron and Lennar Class B [3][4] - New positions were initiated in Allegion, Lamar Advertising, and UnitedHealth Group [5] Investment Highlights - Heico is the biggest winner among Buffett's Q2 purchases, closely followed by Allegion and Nucor [6] - Lennar and D.R. Horton have the lowest valuations based on forward price-to-earnings ratios [6] - UnitedHealth Group has the most attractive price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio at 1.24 among the 12 stocks [7] Growth Projections - Nucor is projected to have nearly 32.5% earnings growth next year, with Chevron at around 24.4% [8] - Constellation Brands is favored by analysts, with a 12-month price target reflecting an upside potential of around 22% [9] Dividend Yields - Lamar Advertising has the highest forward dividend yield at 5.09%, followed by Chevron at 4.39% [10] Best Investment Choice - UnitedHealth Group is highlighted as the best investment among the 12 stocks, with a significant investment of approximately $1.57 billion from Buffett [11] - Despite challenges such as higher medical costs and investigations into Medicare billing practices, these issues are believed to be reflected in the current share price [12]

Market Trends & Challenges - US soybean farmers are facing a "five-alarm fire" situation due to China's current halt of soybean purchases from the US, impacting the crop that is starting to be harvested [1] - The housing market has slowed down due to persistently high mortgage rates [1] Economic Factors - President Trump's tariffs are impacting soybean farmers [1] - High mortgage rates are constricting the housing market [1]

Builder sentiment in the single family housing market dropped one point to 32 in August on the NAHB index. The street was looking for a onepoint gain. Anything below 50 is considered negative.Last August it stood at 39. Now the builders pointed to elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic, and ongoing supply side challenges. Mortgage rates though actually came down nearly a quarter point from the end of July to the first few weeks of August.But that clearly didn't help much. Now, of the index's three comp ...

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway made significant moves in Q2 2025, notably purchasing over 5 million shares in UnitedHealth Group, capitalizing on a 48% decline in the stock price during the quarter [1] - The firm also initiated positions in major homebuilders Lennar and D.R. Horton, as well as the largest steel producer Nucor, with these positions being kept confidential until now [2][3] Investment Moves - **New Positions**: Berkshire initiated positions in Lennar (approximately 7 million Class A shares worth $780 million), D.R. Horton (1.5 million shares worth $191 million), and Nucor (6.6 million shares worth $857 million) [3] - **Performance**: D.R. Horton reported strong earnings, contributing to a rally in homebuilding stocks, while Nucor benefited from steel tariffs, recovering from an 11% decline to a 25% increase by mid-August [4] Exits and Reductions - **Exit**: Berkshire fully exited its $1 billion stake in T-Mobile US, a move interpreted as profit-taking rather than a lack of confidence, with T-Mobile shares delivering a total return of approximately 114% since the initial investment [5][6] - **Reductions**: The firm reduced its stake in Apple by nearly 7%, marking the first reduction since Q3 2024, despite Apple shares experiencing a decline of over 7% in Q2 [8][9] - **Charter Communications**: Berkshire's shares in Charter dropped by over 46%, with the stock underperforming compared to the S&P 500 since the initial investment [9][10] Increased Holdings - **Pool Corporation**: Berkshire significantly increased its position in Pool from approximately 1.46 million to 3.46 million shares, a 137% increase, despite a 10% decline in the stock during Q2 [12][13] Cash Position - Berkshire Hathaway is holding a near-record cash position of $344 billion, indicating a cautious approach to investing in the current market [14]

Core Insights - Century Communities, Inc. has opened a new model home in Palm Coast, Florida, under its Century Complete brand, emphasizing its leadership in online home sales and recognition as one of America's Most Trustworthy Companies [1][10] - The new Roanoke model features an open-concept, single-story layout with high-quality finishes and is part of the affordable housing options available in the area [2][5] Company Overview - Century Communities is one of the largest homebuilders in the U.S., operating in 16 states and over 45 markets, and is recognized for its innovative online homebuying process [10] - The company aims to provide attractive, high-quality homes at affordable prices, with a mission encapsulated in the slogan "A HOME FOR EVERY DREAM" [10] Product Offering - The Roanoke model home includes desirable features such as a covered patio, quartz countertops, Kohler® water fixtures, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and stainless-steel appliances [2][5] - Affordable one- and two-story homes are currently selling in the Palm Coast Signature community, with prices starting from the low $300s [4][5] Sales and Marketing Strategy - Century Communities promotes a state-of-the-art online homebuying experience, allowing buyers to purchase homes 24/7 while also providing in-person assistance from local experts [7][8] - The company is set to launch a new community, Daytona North in Bunnell, with sales beginning on August 28, featuring one-story floor plans [3][4]

But first, breaking housing data just crossing. Diana Olic has that for us. Diana, that's right, Leslie.Builder sentiment in the single family housing market dropped one point to 32 in August on the NAHB index. The street was looking for a onepoint gain. Anything below 50 is considered negative.Last August, it stood at 39. Now, the builders pointed to elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic, and ongoing supply side challenges. Mortgage rates though actually came down nearly a quarter point from the end ...