美国经济学家萨姆纳讲过这样一个寓言：A和B制定了一个宏大计划，却完全忽略了该计划将对C先生造成的负面影响。萨姆纳将C先生称为"被遗忘的 人"，他是"改革者、社会投机者和慈善家的受害者"，也是"不惜一切代价"里的那个代价。 在21世纪的全球经济图景中，这个寓言获得了惊人的现实回响。 在特朗普式的政客不断宣传下，似乎降息已经成为了拯救经济的灵丹妙药，而不肯降息的鲍威尔则是恶棍 爱德华·钱塞勒对此于2022年出版了《The Price of Time》一书，提出不那么受欢迎的观点：长期的廉价信贷阻碍了熊彼特概念上的"创造性毁灭"过程，取 而代之的是一种"非自然选择"，即大量本应破产的低效"僵尸公司"得以续命。在这种情况下，中产阶级的晋升机会减少、薪资增长缓慢，同时又因储蓄回 报被压制、养老金体系岌岌可危而财富增值乏力。 用萨姆纳的寓言来讲，在这场宏大的现代经济实验中，中产阶级（C）成为了那个"被遗忘的"、默默承受代价的群体。 一、低利率催生的新"摩根化"和大回购时代 历史经验来看，低利率是催生企业合并与市场垄断的温床。在19世纪末的美国镀金时代，利率的持续下降促成了由J.P.摩根主导的工业托拉斯化浪潮， 即"摩根化 ...

报道援引的数据显示，在印度完全关闭工厂平均需要4.3年，而在新加坡需要1年，在德国为15个月，在 英国为1至2年。报道称，法规使裁员困难，而政客通常不愿看到投资者离开，法院甚至可能就类似事实 做出完全相反的判决。 "退出壁垒是印度制造业欠发达的关键原因，"报道援引美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学国际经济学助理教授 舒米特罗·查特吉的话表示，"这其实相当于准入成本，阻碍了潜在企业投资。" 报道称，经济学家认为较高关厂率是商业环境活力的体现，即效率低下企业被淘汰。而印度数据则呈现 不同图景。查特吉与他人合著的论文显示，印度关厂成本极高，每年仅3%工厂关闭，属全球最低比例 之一。相比之下，越南年关厂率超17%，中国近10%，美国为9%。分析政府数据后查特吉发现，印度约 20%制造企业停止运营，占用资本却不生产，实质上成为"僵尸企业"。 【环球时报特约记者 甄翔】"在印度开办企业很难，退出更难。"《华尔街日报》22日以此为题报道 称，全球企业在印度经营仍然面临重重困境，障碍不仅在于开办企业，还包括经营不善时如何退出。 报道以美国通用汽车的经历举例，该公司历经数年才从印度市场脱身：其在2017年停止在印销售汽车， 但直到202 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is gradually entering a low-interest-rate environment, which typically leads to asset price bubbles; however, Japan's experience suggests that the effectiveness of low-interest policies in stabilizing the real estate market depends on the speed of interest rate cuts, financial institution support, and fiscal policy coordination [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Low-Interest Rate Environment - The global low-interest-rate environment is influenced by factors such as declining birth rates in developed economies, aging populations, and changes in risk preferences among investors, which have led to increased demand for safe assets [5][6][8]. - In China, the transition to a low-interest-rate environment is driven by technological advancements reaching their peak and a demographic shift towards negative population growth, with a decrease of 850,000 in 2022 and projected declines in subsequent years [7][8]. Group 2: Comparison of Low-Interest Rate Policies in Japan and the U.S. - Japan's approach to stabilizing its real estate market post-bubble involved solely lowering interest rates without significant fiscal intervention, resulting in a prolonged decline in property prices from 1991 to 2013 [12][13]. - In contrast, the U.S. implemented a comprehensive strategy during the 2008 financial crisis, including aggressive interest rate cuts, government takeovers of key financial institutions, and large-scale asset purchase programs, which quickly stabilized housing prices [14][15]. Group 3: Implications for China's Real Estate Market - The effectiveness of low-interest-rate policies in China for achieving "stop falling and stabilize" in the real estate market remains uncertain, as recent rate cuts have not significantly impacted asset prices or market stability [3][10]. - The comparison with Japan and the U.S. highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach, including fiscal measures and support for financial institutions, to avoid the pitfalls experienced by Japan [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme People's Court emphasizes the need for orderly clearance of "zombie enterprises" to support the development of new productive forces, advocating for a balanced approach of rescuing viable companies while timely liquidating non-viable ones [1] Group 1: Legal Framework and Procedures - The notification outlines the importance of precise identification and classification of enterprises, promoting a dual strategy of active rescue and timely liquidation [1] - It highlights the necessity of market-oriented and rule-of-law principles in collaboration with relevant government departments [1] - The court encourages the use of bankruptcy reorganization and reconciliation procedures, as well as mechanisms like suspension of execution and interest cessation to protect debtor assets and prevent further debt accumulation [1] Group 2: Support for Viable Enterprises - The initiative aims to help enterprises with potential for recovery to regain vitality and re-enter the market [1] - There is a focus on exploring solutions for entrepreneurs who provide guarantees for their companies' debts, effectively addressing the debt chain issues [1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The orderly clearance of zombie enterprises is expected to release and activate market resources, thereby contributing to the development of new productive forces [1]