《爱尔兰观察者报》和RTE新闻9月25日报道，爱尔兰商业雇主协会（Ibec）今日发布季度经济展 望报告称，欧盟与美国的贸易协议仍存在诸多问题尚待协商确定，价值540亿欧元的爱美贸易（包括药 品、半导体和商用飞机等）仍面临232条款调查，爱尔兰经济将"放缓"，预计今年国内需求将增长3%， 2026年增长2.6%。今年消费支出将增长2.8%，到2026年降至2.4%。投资领域今年将增长3.4%，明年增 长2.2%。GDP今年将增长6%，到2026年增长4.1%。预计就业率明年将放缓至2%以下。 （原标题：Ibec指出爱尔兰经济将"放缓"） ...

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 52 in August to 50 in September, indicating stagnation in service sector expansion, below the market expectation of 51.7[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 0.4%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, above the market expectation of 49, indicating a slowdown in contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector rose from 46.5 to 47.2, showing a slower contraction[2] - The price index for services increased from 69.2 to 69.4, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The number of initial unemployment claims decreased at the end of September compared to the beginning of the month, suggesting stability in the job market[1] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to lead to 700,000 federal employees being furloughed, with an estimated GDP impact of 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown[1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting may reference September data, with a 96.2% market expectation for no rate cut in October due to improved employment data and high inflation[1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate cuts in October but may consider a rate cut in December as economic slowdown continues[1]

大规模杠杆收购卷土重来，风险债务激增，次级消费者违约信号初现——美国债券市场正在重现2007年 金融危机前的关键特征。 9月28日，据报道，从Electronic Arts Inc.潜在的500亿美元收购，到汽车贷款违约率攀升，再到私人信贷 市场的快速扩张，当前金融市场呈现出与2007年金融危机前相似的泡沫迹象。 尽管银行监管更加严格、资本缓冲更加充足，但市场观察人士仍对企业债务市场发出警告。美国投资级 企业债券的风险溢价本月早些时候触及27年来最低水平，目前仍徘徊在接近该水平附近。 虽然分析师普遍认为不会重演2007-2009年全球金融危机的灾难性后果，但历史的相似性仍值得警惕。 正如Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理Christian Hoffmann所言： "当你将资产定价至完美时，任何不完美都可能引发修正。" 值得注意的是，经济放缓的早期迹象正在显现。美国8月失业率升至2021年来最高水平，就业增长明显 放缓，周五报告显示美国9月消费者信心降至四个月低点。随着估值高企的金融市场面临经济放缓冲 击，投资者可能迎来颠簸行情。 01 泡沫信号频现 此外，债务市场在过去 ...

InnovestX认为，关键在于财政问题：由于经济疲软，政府收入的增长速度未能 跟上支出增长的步伐。政府的固定支出规模庞大，且难以削减，这导致了财政 赤字的不断扩大。 （原标题：新政权面临的经济挑战） 据曼谷邮报9月28日报道,在人们对新政府及其经济团队充满期待的情况下，泰 国经济似乎正在展现出复苏的迹象，但同时也面临着新的挑战。最终的结果将 取决于这些新挑战能否得到妥善应对。 InnovestX认为，泰国经济在第四季度将迎来更为严重的放缓趋势，这种放缓可 能会持续到2026年上半年。在未来四个季度内，经济增长率可能低于1%，从 而导致今年全年GDP增长率仅为1.8%，明年则为1.4%。 在这种脆弱的环境中，由阿努廷领导的泰政府面临着两大亟需应对的重大风 险。 风险一：泰铢持续升值对出口行业构成挑战：今年泰铢大幅升值，兑美元汇率 一度达到31.70。本周泰铢汇率略有回落，为32.24，但全年来看仍上涨了 6.4%。 风险二：惠誉评级下调后可能引发的财政危机，更严重的风险在于泰国的财政 状况。周三，惠誉评级机构将泰国的主权信用评级从"稳定"下调至"负面"，就 此指出了泰国面临的财政问题。 历史数据显示，50%的 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales decreased by 0.9%, with positive pricing of 1% offset by a volume decline of 1.9% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $171 million, up 3% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 19.1%, an increase of 110 basis points year-on-year [4][11] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $1.26, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 [11] - Revenue was down 2.8% year-on-year, with currency having a positive impact of 1% [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HHC (Health and Hygiene) organic revenue decreased by 3.1%, with EBITDA up 2% year-on-year and EBITDA margin increasing to 16.9% [5] - Engineering Adhesives (EA) organic revenue increased by 2.2%, with EBITDA up 14% and EBITDA margin expanding to 23.3% [6][7] - Building Adhesive Solutions (BAS) organic sales decreased by 1%, with EBITDA increasing by 3% to $41 million and EBITDA margin expanding to 17.7% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, organic revenue was up 1% year-on-year, driven by EA's high single-digit growth [8] - EIMEA (Europe, India, Middle East, and Africa) organic revenue declined by 2% year-on-year, with EA flat and HHC and BAS down modestly [8] - Asia-Pacific organic revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, primarily due to significant volume decline in solar [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its portfolio, driving efficiencies, and repositioning for growth and margin expansion [3][16] - Management remains cautious due to a globally subdued economic backdrop and expects volume growth to remain elusive [3][9] - The company is actively managing pricing and raw material costs while emphasizing operational efficiency [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a widespread slowing economic environment, with customer demand appearing uneven and less predictable [9] - The company anticipates a slow growth environment with continued economic volatility and high interest rates [9] - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term EBITDA margin and growth targets despite current challenges [16] Other Important Information - The company updated its financial guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting net revenue to be down 2 to 3% year-on-year and adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $615 to $625 million [12][14] - Full-year adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $4.10 and $4.25, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7% to 11% [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you provide more detail behind the reduction in cash flow guidance? - Management explained that the increase in working capital, specifically inventory, is driving the decrease in cash flow expectations due to preparations for footprint consolidation [19] Question: What helped EA volumes and margins in the quarter? - Management noted a return to double-digit organic growth in electronics and strong performance in the U.S. EA business, driven by new customer wins and strong execution [24] Question: How would you explain the HHC decline in volumes versus EA? - Management indicated that EA is performing stronger than the market, while HHC volumes reflect a decline in consumer demand across major regions [27] Question: What are the pricing trends for your segments in the fourth quarter? - Management highlighted a supportive pricing environment across all three GBUs, with many companies raising prices in response to inflation and tariffs [49]

Core Insights - The tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated approximately $350 billion in annualized revenue for the U.S. government, becoming a significant source of federal revenue [1][2][3] Revenue Generation - Tariffs now account for about 18% of annual household income tax payments, indicating their substantial impact on the U.S. economy and trade policy [2] - The current annualized tariff collection is among the largest in recent history, highlighting the importance of this revenue stream [3] Economic Implications - The tariffs are seen as a potential tool to help manage the national debt, which stands at $37 trillion, as noted by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget [4] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that tariffs could reduce the deficit by up to $4 trillion over the next decade, although economists believe this will primarily slow debt growth rather than eliminate it [5] Market Stability - Initially viewed as a concern, tariffs have become crucial for U.S. financial stability, helping to shield the country from global bond market turmoil [6] - The tariffs have created a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve, as they may contribute to economic slowdown and rising unemployment [7] International Impact - While tariffs have benefited U.S. revenue, countries like China are withdrawing from the U.S. market, as evidenced by a net purchase of only $2 billion in U.S. securities by foreign investors in July 2025 [8] Business Concerns - Over 100 leading business figures, including Fortune 500 CEOs, have expressed concerns regarding the economic effects of Trump's policies, acknowledging both short-term benefits and long-term risks [9] Market Performance - Amid the tariffs, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust have seen year-to-date increases of 14.06% and 18.03%, respectively [10]

Production - Industrial production growth in August was 5.2%, below the expected 5.8% and down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The decline in industrial production was primarily due to a decrease in export growth, which turned negative at -0.4% for the first time this year, down 1.2 percentage points from last month[3] - The service production index growth fell to 5.6%, indicating a slowdown in the service sector[3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in August was -7.1%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, with a cumulative growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop, with a monthly growth rate of -19.5% and a cumulative decline of -12.9%[4] - Infrastructure investment also decreased, with broad infrastructure cumulative growth at 5.4% and narrow infrastructure at 2.0%, both down from the previous month[4] Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a cooling in consumer spending[5] - Dining consumption showed slight recovery with a growth rate of 2.1%, while overall goods retail growth was 3.6%, down 0.3 percentage points[5] - The consumption of gold and jewelry surged to 16.8%, doubling from the previous month, while other discretionary categories showed mixed results[6] Outlook - The economic slowdown in August reflects ongoing pressures in production, investment, and consumption, necessitating targeted policy interventions[7] - Future policy efforts are expected to focus on boosting investment and service consumption, with financial tools likely to support infrastructure investment[7] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with continued pressure from declining exports and a cooling real estate market[7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy continues to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, highlighting the need for policy support to boost consumption and investment [1] Production Sector - Industrial added value growth has slowed year-on-year but remains at a relatively high level, with policy-related and energy supply industries maintaining vitality [1] - External demand is under pressure, leading to a negative growth rate in export delivery value [1] - There is a divergence within the service sector, with strong performance in technology and finance but weakness in business services [1] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth has declined year-on-year, although summer economic activities and policy support have bolstered some upgrades and durable goods consumption [1] - Essential consumption and real estate-related consumption are under pressure, indicating insufficient internal recovery momentum [1] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth rates, both cumulative and monthly, are declining across various components, necessitating increased policy measures to stimulate investment [1] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain a slow but stable trajectory with structural optimization, although demand recovery will take time [1] - There is a need for policies to focus on boosting demand, enhancing consumption willingness, optimizing investment structure, and mitigating risks in key areas to ensure stable economic operation [1]

Core Insights - In August, Russia's oil and petroleum product sales revenue fell to $13.51 billion, marking a decrease of $920 million from the previous month, reaching the lowest level since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [1] - Russia's oil and fuel export volume was 7.3 million barrels per day in August, a decrease of 70,000 barrels per day month-on-month [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Russia's oil production was 9.3 million barrels per day in August, down by 30,000 barrels per day, aligning with the quotas set by OPEC and OPEC+ [1] - The IEA highlighted that Russia's energy sector is facing challenges from drone attacks on refineries and export pipelines, as well as Western sanctions [1] - The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude oil has dropped to around $56 per barrel, below the Western-imposed cap of $60 per barrel [1] - The IEA stated that Russia's oil export revenue is nearing a five-year low, leading to reduced tax revenues and further exacerbating the slowdown of the Russian economy [1]

Group 1 - Canada unexpectedly lost 65,500 jobs in August 2025, leading to a national unemployment rate of 7.1%, the highest level since the pandemic [1] - The labor market is showing signs of significant slowdown, increasing employment pressure [1] Group 2 - The market is betting that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will likely announce an interest rate cut at the monetary policy meeting on September 17 [2] - A potential interest rate cut could have a direct impact on loans and consumer spending [3] Group 3 - High unemployment indicates an economic slowdown, and the central bank may use interest rate cuts to stimulate consumption and investment [4] - The expected rate cut could lower loan rates, providing relief for real estate and corporate financing [4] - Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages may see a decrease in monthly payments, easing financial pressure [4] - Car buyers may benefit from lower auto loan rates, reducing purchasing costs [4]