本周标普500指数下跌近2%，尽管周五有所反弹，但11月以来累计跌幅仍达3.5%。科技股权重较大的纳斯达克综合指数11月已下滑超过6%，并创下了 自4月以来的最大三周跌幅。 AI泡沫破裂的担忧、经济放缓的忧虑、以及投资者获利了结的压力，这些因素在市场中相互交织，导致美股本周出现数月来最剧烈的波动。"谁也没想到 会这样"，投资者对未来可能出现的更大波动感到担忧。 （美股基准股指本周走势） 动量股本周遭受重挫，Robinhood本月市值蒸发约四分之一，Coinbase股价暴跌30%，Palantir下跌约23%。高盛的一篮子高贝塔动量股较昨日高点暴 跌近15%。这是自2022年11月以来动量表现最差的一周。 AI泡沫破裂的担忧、经济放缓的预期以及获利回吐的压力正在市场上交织碰撞，导致本周美股出现数月来最剧烈的盘中波动。"谁也没想到会这样"，投 资者对未来可能出现的更大波动感到担忧。 （高盛高贝塔组合较昨日高点暴跌14.7%） 对人工智能公司押下重注的投资者焦虑最为严重。追踪AI股票的Global X人工智能与科技ETF本月下跌约10%，而追踪科技七巨头的ETF自10月底以来 下跌约6.6%。 英伟达业绩引发的意外 ...

美联储12月降息前景扑朔迷离，市场分歧加剧 近期美联储12月降息预期出现戏剧性逆转，利率掉期市场显示降息概率跌破50%，而期权市场却涌现大量押注降息的SOFR合约（未平仓量达86.3万份）。 关键矛盾点在于：经济数据延迟发布（如10月失业救济人数激增、私营岗位减少）加剧不确定性，美联储内部罕见出现"三向分裂"——理事沃勒支持降息， 达拉斯联储主席洛根反对，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则主张按兵不动。鲍威尔直言12月降息"远非确定"，导致CME利率期货定价从94.4%暴跌至45.8%。 市场陷入"数据迷雾"，降息逻辑遭遇信任危机 这场博弈暴露出美联储沟通机制的失效：政府停摆导致经济数据真空，官员表态矛盾（如沃勒强调"劳动力市场疲软"而洛根质疑通胀进展），使得投资者转 向SOFR期权对冲风险。网友调侃"美联储在玩狼人杀"，而分析师警告若12月不降息，美债收益率曲线或再度倒挂。争议背后是更深层的政策困境——通胀 黏性与经济放缓压力并存，降息周期能否持续已成全球市场悬案。 当利率掉期市场将美联储12月降息概率压至40%的冰点时，期权市场却涌现出86.3万份SOFR期权未平仓合约的巨量押注。这种罕见分歧背后，隐藏着华尔 街对 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 超长债周报 经济放缓，超长债横盘震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 10 月统计局数据显示经济增速继续放缓，通胀 小幅回升，另外金融数据增速全面回落，总体经济依然存在压力，债市 先扬后抑，超长债微涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下降， 交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 16 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的 ...

Economic Overview - After two years of growth driven by military spending related to the Ukraine war, Russia's economy is now slowing, with declining oil revenues and an increasing budget deficit [1] - The Kremlin is looking to ordinary citizens and small businesses to stabilize its finances [1] Tax Increases - A proposed increase in value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% is expected to generate up to 1 trillion rubles (approximately $12.3 billion) for the state budget, effective from January 1 [2] - The legislation also lowers the VAT collection threshold for businesses from 60 million rubles ($739,000) to 10 million rubles ($123,000) by 2028, targeting tax avoidance schemes [2] Impact on Small Businesses - The new VAT regulations will affect previously exempt businesses, including corner stores and beauty salons, potentially leading to financial strain [3][2] - Concerns have been raised that the requirement for small businesses to collect VAT may lead to closures, resulting in lower budget revenues instead of the intended increase [6] Additional Tax Proposals - The government is considering increasing taxes on various goods, including spirits, wine, beer, cigarettes, and vapes, with specific increases outlined for stronger spirits [4] - Other proposed fee increases include those for renewing driver's licenses and a potential tech tax on digital equipment, which could reach up to 5,000 rubles ($61.50) for high-priced items [4] Public Sentiment - The economic slowdown and tax increases indicate that both President Putin and ordinary Russians will face difficult choices between military spending and consumer welfare [5] - Public reactions in Moscow reflect a mix of dismay and resignation, particularly regarding the impact of higher food prices on poorer regions and low-income individuals [5]

黄金（XAU/USD）周四亚洲时段的表现挺有意思——先是小幅回落，随后又企稳回升，居然触及三周多以来的高点，逼近每盎司4213美元水平。这走势背 后，其实跟美国那边的情况密切相关。 受美国政府此前停摆影响，部分延迟发布的经济数据可能显示美国经济增长出现放缓迹象，这进一步强化了投资者对美联储可能在12月继续采取降息举措的 预期。 基本面分析 金价在61.8%斐波那契回撤位上方站稳，4200美元整数关口形成有效支撑，日线与4小时图的技术指标均呈多头排列。 若维持当前势头，金价有望向4250-4255美元区域推进，后续目标可看至4285美元及4300美元。 即便出现短期回调，4100-4095美元区域预计将形成强力支撑，跌破该区间才可能引发技术性抛售，下看4075美元甚至4025美元，极端情况下若失守4000美 元心理关口，短期趋势可能转空。 美国政府重新开放提升了市场乐观情绪，这可能会抑制黄金的避险买盘，经济数据疲软与降息预期形成的"基本面支撑"似乎仍然占据上风。 亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克近期表态称，实时指标显示劳动力市场处于"微妙平衡"，未见价格压力加剧，政策利率下调引发通胀的风险较低，这进一步巩固 了市场对美 ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate remains volatile around 1.4008, influenced by weak U.S. private sector job growth and expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in December [1] - The U.S. ADP employment report indicates a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs, down from 14,250, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) has signaled a pause in further rate cuts after reducing the policy rate to 2.25% in October, with expectations that rates will remain stable until mid-2027 [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis of USD/CAD shows a narrow trading range between 1.3980 and 1.4040, with no clear directional signal, and a potential breakout above 1.4050 could lead to resistance at 1.4100 [2] - The RSI indicator is around 50, indicating a neutral market phase, and the focus remains on the impact of the BoC meeting minutes on market expectations [2]

Economic Overview - The equity market has seen a significant pullback in the first week of November, with small-cap stocks like the Russell 2000 giving back all of October's gains, raising concerns about a potential correction or recession [1] - The economic slowdown is becoming evident in various sectors, particularly in housing, labor markets, and consumer sentiment, despite not yet being reflected in GDP numbers [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its target Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during its late October meeting, with dissenting votes indicating differing views on the rate cut [7] - Following the rate cut, interest rates on the 10-Year Treasury rose from 3.95% to 4.16%, highlighting market volatility and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [7][8] Labor Market Insights - Layoffs have surged, with over 153,000 job cuts reported in October, marking the highest count for that month since 2003, and a 65% increase in total layoffs year-to-date compared to the previous year [16][22] - The unemployment rate for young men aged 20-24 has reached 10%, the highest since the pandemic, indicating emerging weakness in the labor market [17] Housing Market Trends - The housing sector is experiencing significant challenges, with rental deflation of -0.8% month-over-month in October and record-high vacancy rates in multifamily units [14][22] - The S&P 500 Homebuilding Stock Index has declined nearly -18% from its early September peak, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market [14] Freight and Zombie Companies - The Cass Freight Index has decreased by approximately -25% from its peak in 2022, signaling a slowdown in freight movements, which is a concerning indicator for economic health [11][22] - The number of "zombie companies," defined as those unable to cover their interest expenses, has reached its highest level since the pandemic, with over 21% of companies in the Russell 3000 fitting this definition [12][22]

格隆汇11月11日｜尽管贸易紧张局势挥之不去，且股票估值看起来偏高，但本财报季企业高管对经济的 看法却异常乐观。据外媒报道部，受追踪的销售、指引和盈利电话会议数据显示，提到"经济放缓"及其 同义词的次数是自2007年以来的最低水平。尽管政府停摆造成了美国官方数据的中断，并导致政策前景 更加模糊，但这种情况仍在发生。同时，标普500指数正迈向连续第三年实现高回报，股票价格与其疫 情后的峰值一样昂贵。投资者最担心的关税将严重破坏全球增长并损害公司利润的情况大多未能成为现 实。第三季度财报季显示，公司通过提价、削减成本和简化供应链来减轻了关税的影响。全球范围内的 消费者也表现出韧性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $4,070 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic expectations, global risks, and long-term institutional buying, rather than mere speculative trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, leading investors to anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year, which benefits gold in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4]. - Inflation in the U.S. is declining, and economic slowdown is prompting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [4][7]. Group 2: Global Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in European and American markets are causing capital to flow out of high-risk assets and into safer investments like gold [5][7]. - The rise in gold prices reflects growing global market concerns about economic stagnation, weak consumer confidence, and pressured corporate earnings [7][12]. Group 3: Institutional Buying - Central banks and institutional investors are significantly increasing their gold holdings, with the World Gold Council reporting record net purchases by official sectors this year [6][10]. - The trend indicates a structural return to gold as a long-term investment, moving beyond short-term speculation [7][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar enhances gold's appeal, making it cheaper for investors using other currencies, thus contributing to rising demand [7][12]. - The breakout above the $4,000 resistance level suggests a new pricing phase for gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - High gold prices are increasing jewelry prices but are also stimulating demand in certain regions, such as China, where initiatives like "old-for-new" and investment in gold bars are gaining popularity [11]. Group 6: Macro Implications - The sustained rise in gold prices signals heightened global risk concerns and reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, indicating a potential preparation for a new economic cycle [12].

Group 1 - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and concerns over global economic growth due to weak economic data [1][2] - Spot gold rose by 1.8% to $4,070.99 per ounce, marking the highest level since October 27, while December futures increased by 1.8% to $4,079.70 per ounce [1] - The chief market analyst at KCM Trade noted that despite the Fed downplaying the likelihood of a rate cut, traders are still pursuing gold due to the potential for a rate reduction [1] Group 2 - Recent data indicated a decline in U.S. employment in October, attributed to government and retail sector challenges, alongside a surge in layoffs driven by cost-cutting and AI adoption [1] - A survey revealed that consumer confidence in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years in early November, amid concerns over the longest government shutdown in history [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust GLD saw an increase in gold holdings from 1,040.35 tons to 1,042.06 tons, reflecting a 0.16% rise [3]