Since my PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL ) downgrade to Hold in January , the stock has significantly underperformed the market and was down more than 20% as of yesterday’s market close. Nevertheless, the significantly lowered valuation andExcellent academic Finance background and Finance professional with over five years of cumulative experience in Consulting & Audit Firms including a professional Valuation position, FP&A and Controlling positions, and Financial writing.My approach is mostly value-orie ...

Since my PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL ) downgrade to Hold in January , the stock has significantly underperformed the market and was down more than 20% as of yesterday’s market close. Nevertheless, the significantly lowered valuation andExcellent academic Finance background and Finance professional with over five years of cumulative experience in Consulting & Audit Firms including a professional Valuation position, FP&A and Controlling positions, and Financial writing.My approach is mostly value-orie ...

PayPal beat earnings and revenue, raised guidance, and launched its first-ever quarterly dividend. ...

Core Insights - PayPal shares surged over 10% in premarket trading after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and announcing a strategic partnership with OpenAI [1][4] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.34 per share, a 12% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $8.42 billion, a 7% increase, both surpassing analyst expectations [3][4] - PayPal announced its first-ever shareholder dividend with a target payout ratio of 10% of adjusted net income [4] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for the September quarter were $1.34 per share, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $1.20 [3] - Revenue rose to $8.42 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts of $8.24 billion [3] - Venmo, PayPal's peer-to-peer payment platform, achieved a 20% revenue growth [3] Strategic Developments - PayPal formed a major e-commerce partnership with OpenAI, allowing over 800 million weekly ChatGPT users to make purchases using PayPal's digital wallet [4] - This partnership aims to position PayPal within the emerging "agentic commerce" ecosystem, where AI-powered assistants facilitate direct transactions [4] Market Outlook - Wall Street analysts maintain a cautious outlook on PayPal, with most holding a 'Hold' rating despite moderate upside expectations over the next 12 months [5] - The average price target for PayPal's stock is $80.60, indicating a potential upside of 14.73%, with forecasts ranging from $62 to $105 [6][8] - Among analysts, 10 have issued a Buy rating, 15 recommend holding, and 3 suggest selling the stock [8]

Core Insights - Mastercard is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, with earnings estimated at $4.31 per share and revenues of $8.5 billion [1] - The earnings estimate has increased by a penny over the past 60 days, indicating a 10.8% year-over-year growth, while revenue is projected to grow by 15.4% [2] - For the full year 2025, revenue is estimated at $32.48 billion, reflecting a 15.3% increase, and earnings per share are projected at $16.34, an 11.9% rise year-over-year [3] Earnings Performance - Mastercard has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, having beaten consensus estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.8% [4] - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.26% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of an earnings beat [5] Growth Drivers - Projected growth in Q3 2025 is attributed to strong cross-border spending, gains in contactless payments, and value-added services [8] - The Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) is expected to rise by 9.9% year-over-year, with domestic operations increasing by nearly 8% and European operations by 10.3% [9] - Switched transactions are anticipated to grow by 9.3%, driven by resilient consumer spending and increased contactless acceptance [10] - Cross-border assessments are expected to increase by 15.2%, while domestic assessments and transaction processing assessments are projected to rise by 10.8% and 13.5%, respectively [11] - Value-added Services and Solutions net revenues are estimated to grow by 21.8% year-over-year, driven by demand for consulting and marketing services [12] Cost Considerations - Adjusted operating costs are expected to rise nearly 16% year-over-year due to increased general and administrative costs, as well as advertising and marketing expenses [14] - Payments network rebates and incentives are projected to increase by 14% year-over-year [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Mastercard's stock has increased by 8.7% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's decline of 4.8% [15] - The company's current valuation is at 30.89X forward 12-month earnings, above the industry average of 21.58X, indicating a stretched valuation compared to peers like Visa and American Express [17] Strategic Positioning - Mastercard is adapting to the digital money revolution by forming partnerships with major blockchain players, positioning itself as a bridge between traditional payments and the crypto economy [18] - Despite regulatory pressures in the U.S. and U.K., Mastercard continues to focus on digital security, fraud prevention, and value-added services [19] - The company demonstrates strong cash flow and consistent shareholder returns, highlighting its resilience and confidence in future growth [20]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 has increased by 14.5% year to date and over 35% from its April lows, raising questions about the sustainability of the market rally [1] - Investors seeking reliable dividend stocks may find opportunities in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of 30 industry-leading companies [1] Group 2 - Procter & Gamble (P&G) and Coca-Cola are highlighted as strong dividend stocks, with P&G having a 21.8 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio compared to a 10-year median of 25.7, and Coca-Cola at 23.9 versus a median of 27.7 [6] - Both companies have maintained impressive dividend growth, with P&G raising its dividend for 69 consecutive years and Coca-Cola for 63 years, qualifying them as Dividend Kings [5] Group 3 - McDonald's is noted for its recession-resistant business model, providing affordable food options even amid inflationary pressures [7] - Chevron continues to increase its dividend payouts despite low oil prices, indicating strong financial management [8] - Visa is positioned to return significant cash to shareholders without relying on a booming economy [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PayPal is on pace for 6%-7% transaction margin dollar growth in 2025, a significant improvement from negative growth two years ago [3] - Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased by 12%, reflecting strong transaction margin performance [7] - Non-GAAP operating income grew by 6% to nearly $1.6 billion, with adjusted free cash flow at $2.3 billion for the quarter [29][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The branded experiences total payment volume (TPV) grew by 8% on a currency-neutral basis, with U.S. branded experiences TPV growth accelerating to 10% [10][31] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) business sustained a 20% volume growth quarter-over-quarter, with expectations to process close to $40 billion in BNPL TPV in 2025 [4][17] - Venmo's TPV growth accelerated to 14%, with revenue expected to reach $1.7 billion this year, up more than 20% [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total payment volume accelerated to 8% growth, reaching over $458 billion [30] - Monthly active accounts increased by 2% year-over-year to 227 million, with transactions per active account growing by 5% [30] - The enterprise payments business returned to volume growth, contributing to overall transaction margin dollar growth [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PayPal is focusing on profitable growth and expanding its addressable market beyond online payments through omnichannel initiatives [3][6] - The company is investing in high-impact growth initiatives, including BNPL and Venmo, while also returning value to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends [5][43] - The strategy includes enhancing branded checkout experiences and scaling omnichannel presence to meet consumer needs [10][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the business's long-term growth potential, aiming for high single-digit transaction margin dollar growth and non-GAAP EPS growth in the teens [5][6] - The company is aware of macroeconomic challenges but remains focused on executing its strategy and driving growth through targeted investments [39][40] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to changing consumer behaviors and preferences, particularly in the BNPL and Venmo segments [17][19] Other Important Information - PayPal announced the initiation of a dividend as part of its capital allocation strategy, targeting 70%-80% of free cash flow for capital return [5][38] - The company is expanding its BNPL offerings into new geographies and enhancing its product features to capture more market share [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Has agentic commerce changed PayPal's strategic priorities? - Management clarified that agentic commerce is an evolution of their existing strategy, aiming to be available wherever consumers want to pay [46][47] Question: How should investors think about the overall path for branded checkout growth? - Management acknowledged macro-related deceleration but emphasized consistent mid-single-digit growth and confidence in their initiatives [55][56] Question: Can you provide insights on the Buy Now, Pay Later market share? - Management noted strong growth in BNPL, particularly in the U.S., and highlighted the importance of meeting customers' needs earlier in the purchasing process [62][63] Question: What is the growth trajectory for Venmo? - Management expressed excitement about Venmo's growth, highlighting strong user engagement and plans for new product offerings to enhance monetization [68][69]

USDC stablecoin issuer Circle launched the public testnet for its Layer-1 blockchain network Arc Tuesday, with participation from over 100 companies including BlackRock, Visa and Amazon Web Services. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said the project has “remarkable early momentum,” in a press release. “Arc presents the opportunity for every type of company to build on enterprise-grade network infrastructure—advancing a shared vision that a more open, inclusive, and efficient global economic system can be built n ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PayPal is on pace for 6% to 7% growth in transaction margin dollars in 2025, a significant improvement from negative growth two years ago [3] - Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased by 12%, reflecting strong transaction margin performance [6] - Non-GAAP operating income grew by 6% to nearly $1.6 billion, with adjusted free cash flow at $2.3 billion for the quarter [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The branded experiences total payment volume (TPV) grew by 8% on a currency-neutral basis, with U.S. branded experiences TPV growth accelerating to 10% [10][31] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) business sustained a volume growth of 20% quarter after quarter, with expectations to process close to $40 billion in BNPL TPV in 2025 [4][17] - Venmo's TPV growth accelerated to 14%, with revenue expected to reach $1.7 billion this year, up more than 20% [20][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Monthly active accounts grew by 2% year over year to 227 million, with transactions per active account growing by 5% [29][30] - The overall total payment volume accelerated to 8% growth, reaching over $458 billion [30] - Transaction revenue grew by 6% to $7.5 billion, while other value-added services revenue increased by 15% to $895 million [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PayPal is focusing on profitable growth and expanding its addressable market beyond online payments, with a clear strategy to enhance branded experiences and omnichannel presence [3][5] - The company is initiating a dividend as part of its capital allocation strategy, alongside ongoing share buybacks [5][38] - PayPal aims to leverage partnerships and innovations in agentic commerce to enhance its competitive position [26][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the business's long-term growth potential, expecting high single-digit transaction margin dollar growth and non-GAAP EPS growth in the teens or better [5][6] - The company acknowledged challenges in the macroeconomic environment but remains focused on executing its strategic initiatives [32][39] - Management plans to increase investments in product attachment and habituation to drive future growth [40] Other Important Information - PayPal's strong foundation and differentiated competitive advantages position it well to capture a growing addressable market [5][43] - The company is actively managing its cost structure while reinvesting in key growth initiatives [36][37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Has agentic commerce changed PayPal's strategic priorities? - Management stated that agentic commerce is an evolution of their existing strategy, aiming to be available wherever consumers want to pay and merchants want to sell [48][49] Question: How should investors think about the overall path for branded checkout growth? - Management highlighted consistent mid-single-digit growth in branded checkout, with macro-related deceleration observed in September [56][58] Question: Can you provide insights on the Buy Now, Pay Later market share? - Management noted strong growth in BNPL, particularly in the U.S., and emphasized the importance of meeting customers' needs earlier in the purchasing process [62][64] Question: What is the growth trajectory for Venmo? - Management expressed excitement about Venmo's growth, highlighting increased active users and the potential for higher average revenue per account (ARPA) as new products are introduced [66][70]

Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) will release earnings results for the fourth quarter, after the closing bell on Tuesday.Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings at $2.97 per share, up from $2.71 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Visa's quarterly revenue is $10.61 billion, compared to $9.62 billion a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.The company has beaten analyst revenue estimates in four straight quarters and in nine of the last 10 quarters overall.With the rec ...