Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From July 14th to July 20th, the issuance guiding rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors showed divergence, with high - grade rates rising overall and medium - low - grade rates falling overall, with a change range of - 5 BP to 3 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and the net financing amount also decreased. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline, and the yields of credit bonds decreased overall. The credit spreads of medium - short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed overall. [1][62] - From a long - term perspective, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel. Due to the current high price, the risk of chasing high is relatively large. When allocating, investors can wait for opportunities and increase positions during adjustments. They should focus on the change trend of interest - rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds. At present, the effect of credit sinking is not good, and there is a demand to increase the duration to increase returns. High - grade 5 - year varieties can be considered first. [1][62] - The central and local governments have continuously optimized real - estate policies, which have played a positive role in promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and stabilize. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk preferences can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. For urban investment bonds, the possibility of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety of credit bonds. [2][66][68] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From July 14th to July 20th, a total of 343 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 281.016 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The net financing amount was 44.902 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38.421 billion yuan. [12] - In terms of different varieties, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds and private placement notes decreased, while those of enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills increased. The net financing amounts of enterprise bonds and private placement notes increased, while those of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills decreased. The net financing amounts of enterprise bonds, private placement notes, and short - term financing bills were negative, while those of corporate bonds and medium - term notes were positive. [13] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guiding rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors showed divergence. High - grade rates rose overall, and medium - low - grade rates fell overall, with a change range of - 5 BP to 3 BP. By term, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year varieties had different interest - rate change ranges. By grade, different grades also had different interest - rate change ranges. [14] 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From July 14th to July 20th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 864.586 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24%. The trading volumes of all varieties decreased. [19] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - short - term notes, all varieties' credit spreads narrowed. For enterprise bonds, all varieties' credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads narrowed, but there were some exceptions in specific grades and terms. [22][33][37] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.35 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 0.44 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.17 BP. For 3 - year medium - short - term notes, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread remained unchanged. [46] - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 1.19 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 0.78 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 1.28 BP. For 3 - year enterprise bonds, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread remained unchanged. [52] - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.45 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.29 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 1.24 BP. For 3 - year urban investment bonds, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 7.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP. [55] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From July 14th to July 20th, a total of 4 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, with 1 downgraded and 3 upgraded. [59] 3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - From July 14th to July 20th, there were no credit - bond defaults or bond - maturity extensions. [61] 4. Investment Views - The investment views are basically the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current situation of credit - bond issuance, trading, and spread changes, and providing investment suggestions from absolute and relative return perspectives. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of stable - growth policies, capital - market conditions, and supply - demand patterns on the bond market. [1][62] - For real - estate bonds, with the real - estate market showing signs of stabilization, investors with high risk preferences can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds and properly speculating on the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of undervalued real - estate enterprise bonds. For urban investment bonds, they can still be a key allocation variety, and the short - term credit risk is controllable. [2][66][68]

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced a "anti-involution" theme rally, with sectors such as steel, polysilicon, and glass seeing significant growth. The "anti-involution" theme is expected to become one of the main investment lines in the near future as it spreads across various industries [1] - Securities firms have shown considerable interest in the "anti-involution" theme, with dozens of firms publishing over a hundred reports and articles related to it since July. The most covered industries include building materials, steel, photovoltaics, and coal [1] - Analysts suggest that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, improving the net asset return rates in related industries, which would be a significant benefit for the stock market [1] Group 2 - "Expectation management" is the primary method of the current "anti-involution" policy. Traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel have largely cleared their outdated production capacity, and the concentration of industries has significantly increased [2] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy may vary by industry. Some sectors, such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, still have growth potential, making direct capacity clearance less likely, while traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and low product prices may see more significant effects on profitability [2] - A report from Huachuang Securities identified potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" measures, with coal mining, coke, and ordinary steel being the most frequently mentioned. Other industries like passenger vehicles and wind power equipment were also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Group 1 - Yiming Pharmaceutical announced that its stock price had deviated by over 20% in two consecutive trading days, indicating abnormal trading fluctuations. The company is undergoing a potential change in control, but the completion of the share transfer agreement remains uncertain [3] - Yongjin Co. clarified that its main business involves the research, production, and sales of cold-rolled stainless steel strips, and it does not engage in solid-state battery products [4] - Gongchuang Turf reported that domestic sports turf contributes a low proportion to its main business revenue, and the impact of domestic football events on its performance is minimal [5] Group 2 - Jinying Co. stated that its revenue from lithium battery materials was 21.72 million yuan in 2024, accounting for only 1.70% of its main business revenue, and it does not involve solid-state battery business [6] - Beizhi Technology has reached a strategic cooperation intention with Xingdong Jiyuan to collaborate on humanoid robots in smart logistics applications, aiming for mutual benefits and sustainable development [7] - Hengdian Film announced plans to jointly invest with its wholly-owned subsidiary to establish a new cinema development company with a registered capital of 50 million yuan, where Hengdian Film will contribute 45 million yuan [8] Group 3 - Tiankang Biological reported a sales revenue of 345 million yuan from pig sales in May, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95%, with a total of 1.2851 million pigs sold in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.49% [11] - Qu Mei Home's director reduced 58,000 shares during the stock's abnormal trading period, while no other executives engaged in stock trading during this time [13] - Tengda Construction won a bid for the Fanglin Automotive Cloud Warehouse project with a contract value of 349 million yuan, representing approximately 9.38% of its projected revenue for 2024 [15]

Core Insights - The province is accelerating the construction of modern livable rural houses, focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and smart features to create a new paradigm of "Lu-style residences" [3][6] - The initiative aims to improve housing quality and living conditions, while also promoting rural modernization and the "Qilu model" of rural revitalization [3][4] Group 1: Construction Principles - The construction of rural houses should follow the principles of "planning first, then building" and "design first, then construction" to ensure high-quality outcomes [4] - A lack of unified planning has led to inconsistent quality and aesthetics in rural housing, necessitating a focus on high-level planning and design [4] Group 2: Standardization and Support - The province has developed four sets of standard design blueprints for rural houses and will implement a "one village, one blueprint" supply mechanism to meet local needs [4] - A collaborative mechanism involving village coordinators and technical staff will be established to provide comprehensive technical support for construction [4] Group 3: Material and Energy Efficiency - The province emphasizes the use of high-quality materials and construction techniques, promoting green building materials and clean energy solutions like solar and geothermal systems [5] - The goal is to create green, low-carbon demonstration projects in rural housing [5] Group 4: Cultural Integration - The construction of modern livable rural houses should integrate regional characteristics and cultural traditions to create unique rural aesthetics [6] - Guidelines will be established to control the architectural features of new houses, ensuring they reflect local heritage and community identity [6] Group 5: Quality Management - Strengthening management of rural housing construction is essential, with a focus on quality and safety oversight, including the establishment of housing records for accountability [6]

Group 1 - The construction and housing sectors are experiencing increased activity, with companies such as Renzhi Co., Ltd. (002629) and Chongqing Construction (600939) hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Director of the Standards and Quotas Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Yao Tianwei, emphasized that building "good houses" does not equate to building "large houses" or "expensive houses," but rather focuses on good design, construction, materials, and services to address pain points in living conditions and enhance housing quality [1] Group 2 - There is a surge of dark pool funds flowing into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Construction has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a specific stock issuance, which is expected to enhance its capital structure and support future growth initiatives [1][3]. Company Announcements - Longyuan Construction's stock closed at 3.81 yuan on May 30, 2025, down 0.78% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 5.828 billion yuan, ranking 6th in the housing construction sector and 2514th in the A-share market [1]. - The company’s board approved the establishment of a special account for raised funds and authorized the signing of a fund supervision agreement, ensuring that the raised funds will be managed in compliance with regulations to protect investor interests [2]. - The independent directors of Longyuan Construction also approved the establishment of a special account for raised funds, emphasizing that this measure aligns with regulations and protects the interests of the company and its shareholders [2].

Group 1 - The central government has issued an opinion to promote urban renewal actions, aiming for significant progress by 2030, including improved urban development mechanisms and enhanced living environments [1] - The urban village renovation is highlighted as a key project, with a focus on historical and cultural preservation, and a tailored approach for each village to improve living conditions [1][2] - A surge in A-share stocks related to urban village renovation was observed, with notable increases in companies like Jitai Co. and Zhengzhong Design, which saw gains of 9.99% and 9.98% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to implement 1 million sets of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, involving a renovation scale of approximately 1.1 million square meters [3] - The financial demand for monetary compensation for these renovations is estimated at 1.4 trillion yuan, with a potential boost of 1.1 trillion yuan in residential sales [4] - Nearly half of the companies involved in urban village renovation reported positive performance in Q1, with notable profit increases from companies like Youfa Group, which saw a 9680.17% year-on-year increase in net profit [5] Group 3 - 17 stocks related to urban village renovation received significant interest from social security funds, with major holdings in China State Construction and Poly Developments, indicating strong institutional support [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Guangxi Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department is enhancing the quality of rural housing through technical support from professional design teams and universities, focusing on modern livable housing and seismic performance improvement [1][2] - The initiative includes the development of standard design drawings, modern housing designs, construction management, and training for rural construction craftsmen, all provided free of charge [1] - Four pilot counties have been selected to sign technical support agreements with design teams, aiming to establish a technical support mechanism for rural housing construction [1] Group 2 - The use of new green building materials is being explored to improve the seismic and environmental performance of rural houses, such as using bamboo fiber reinforced concrete for existing house renovations [1] - In the pilot area of Qinnan District, carbon-reducing recycled concrete blocks are promoted for new housing construction, emphasizing carbon reduction and resource recycling [1] - In Pu Bei County, a comprehensive free guidance and technical review process is implemented for enhancing the seismic performance of new and renovated houses, ensuring continuous technical support through real-time communication and on-site inspections [2]