Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates rising tariffs are pushing consumer prices higher, leading to increased inflation and consumer fatigue as spending on non-essentials slows down [2][3][4] - Wage growth is reported in some districts, but it is insufficient to offset the impact of higher prices on consumers [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The total crypto market cap has fallen by 2.5% to approximately $3.6 trillion, which is about 10% lower than the previous week [5] - Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, 94 have seen a decrease in value over the past 24 hours, with weak ETF flows indicating declining institutional demand [5] Trade Relations - China's efforts to reassure global markets about the continuity of rare earth exports are highlighted, with state media emphasizing compliance for civil use while banning military applications [7] Upcoming Earnings - American Express is expected to report a revenue growth of 7.9% year-over-year to $13.45 billion, with EPS estimated at $3.98 per share [8][9] - The performance of American Express is viewed as a proxy for consumer spending health, particularly in the premium segment [9] Energy Sector - The energy sector is under pressure, with oil and natural gas prices declining amid geopolitical developments, including discussions between the US and Ukraine regarding gas imports [11][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - American Express is expected to report strong third-quarter financial results, with analysts anticipating revenue growth and earnings per share increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict third-quarter revenue of $18.05 billion, an increase from $16.64 billion in the same quarter last year [1]. - Expected earnings per share for the third quarter is $4.00, up from $3.49 in the previous year [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Truist Securities analyst Brian Foran maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $375, noting mixed reviews for the refreshed Platinum card but potential upside based on user surveys [3]. - Other analysts have also raised their price targets: UBS from $330 to $340, JPMorgan from $343 to $355, Barclays from $297 to $336, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods from $371 to $394, and Evercore ISI Group from $330 to $365 [8]. Key Items to Watch - Analysts will focus on the company's recent upgrades, including higher perks and fees, and their impact on demand and potential customer churn [4][5]. - The demographic shift towards Millennials and Gen Z, who now represent approximately 35% of U.S. consumer spending for the company, is a significant factor [5]. Financial Performance Indicators - In the second quarter, American Express reported a 9% year-over-year increase in revenue, net of interest expense, and a 7% increase in Card Member spending to $416.3 billion [6]. - The International Card Services segment saw a 14.5% year-over-year increase, while Global Merchant and Network Services revenue rose by 3.2% [7]. - The company's expenses increased by 14% year-over-year in the second quarter, and analysts will be looking for revenue growth to outpace these cost increases [7]. Company Holdings and Market Impact - American Express is a significant holding for Berkshire Hathaway, comprising about 16.7% of its investment portfolio [9]. - The company's quarterly results could influence the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as it is one of the largest holdings in the index [10]. Stock Performance - As of Wednesday, American Express stock traded at $333.02, with a year-to-date increase of 11.6% in 2025 [10].

Core Insights - Energy and Financial sectors dominate the deep-value landscape, with Petrobras (PBR) and Equinor (EQNR) leading in Energy, while Synchrony Financial (SYF) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) are at the forefront of Financials [1][2][5] Energy Sector - Petrobras (PBR) trades at an Acquirer's Multiple (AM) of 4.0 with a free cash flow (FCF) yield of approximately 38.1%, reflecting macro and political risks rather than deteriorating fundamentals [2] - Equinor (EQNR) has an AM of 2.5 and a FCF yield of around 12.3%, indicating strong cash generation despite market skepticism [2] - The broader energy complex continues to offer double-digit cash returns at low- to mid-single-digit AMs, highlighting ongoing doubts about the sustainability of oil and gas profitability [3] Financial Sector - Bank of New York Mellon (BK) has an AM of 2.1 and a FCF yield of about 3.2%, while Synchrony Financial (SYF) shows a higher AM of 2.2 with a remarkable FCF yield of approximately 37.9% [1][2] - The market remains cautious regarding credit and capital markets exposure, impacting valuations in the financial sector [1] Market Sentiment - Investors are discounting cyclical exposure and macro sensitivity over underlying cash strength, with Energy priced as a sunset sector despite strong capital discipline and high free cash flow [4] - The clustering of Energy and Financials suggests that patient capital may find opportunities through buybacks, dividends, and resilient earnings if pessimism proves excessive [4] Investment Outlook - The current market setup indicates that Energy and Financials are central to global value, with disciplined capital allocation, attractive valuations, and strong FCF yields rewarding long-term investors willing to endure volatility [5]

Core Insights - The trend of reporting rent payments to credit bureaus is increasing, with 13% of consumers having their rent reported in 2025, up from 11% in 2024 [1] - This shift is particularly beneficial for younger consumers, immigrants, and those with limited credit history, as it can lead to lower interest rates and better loan approvals [2][3] Importance of Rent Reporting - Rent reporting provides "credit invisible" consumers with better borrowing opportunities, with nearly 7 million consumers in the U.S. classified as "credit invisible" in 2020 [4] - A 2021 TransUnion analysis indicated that credit scores improved by an average of 60 points when rent payments were included, significantly impacting loan qualification [5] Demographic Trends - Gen Z leads in rent reporting, with 18% reporting their payments in 2025, compared to 16% of millennials, 12% of Gen Xers, and 8% of baby boomers [6] - Younger adults and immigrants are particularly poised to benefit from rent reporting, as traditional credit scoring often excludes them [6]

Core Insights - The earnings season has commenced with major companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and American Express (AXP) set to report their earnings this week [1] Group 1: Earnings Reporting - Companies reporting earnings include TSM, JPM, WFC, BAC, GS, JNJ, and AXP [1] Group 2: Stock Screener Usage - The Stock Screener can be utilized to identify companies with significant option volume and upcoming earnings [2] - A specific scan can be conducted to find companies with total call volume greater than 1,000 and market capitalization exceeding 10 billion, with earnings dates between October 13 - 17 [3] Group 3: Trading Strategy Example - An example trading strategy involves using an iron condor for TSM, which profits from a drop in implied volatility while keeping the stock within a specified range [5] - The iron condor consists of a bull put spread and a bear call spread, with specific strike prices for options sold and bought [6] - The total premium generated from the iron condor is approximately $1.50 per contract, equating to $150 [6] Group 4: Profit Zone Calculation - The profit zone for the iron condor ranges between $278.50 and $321.50, calculated by adjusting the short strikes with the premium received [7]

Core Insights - Experian Vision Awards recognized Figure, PREMIER Bankcard, and Members First Credit Union as winners [1] Company Highlights - Figure was acknowledged for its innovative contributions in the financial services sector [1] - PREMIER Bankcard received recognition for its outstanding performance in credit card services [1] - Members First Credit Union was awarded for its exceptional member service and community engagement [1]

Equity Research Analyst at DM Martins Research.The best opportunities often don’t scream for attention. I cover stocks that are often undercovered, focusing primarily on Brazil and Latin America — but I also occasionally write about global large caps. My work can also be found on TipRanks, where I contribute regularly, and on TheStreet, where I was a frequent contributor in the past.- Disclaimer: All views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or official positions of DM Martins ...

Core Insights - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are becoming a popular payment option among Americans, with 86% expressing trust in BNPL compared to credit cards [2] - A significant concern among BNPL users is the potential impact on their credit scores, as credit agencies are starting to incorporate BNPL payment history into their scoring models [2][3] User Demographics and Trends - Approximately 30% of Americans have utilized BNPL services, with usage projected to rise from 49.2 million in 2021 to 86.5 million in 2024, and further to 91.5 million by 2025 [3] - The average BNPL loan amount is around $135, but many users face challenges in managing multiple loans, leading to late payments [4] Credit Scoring Implications - FICO has announced plans to include BNPL data in its credit scoring models, which may negatively affect users' credit scores due to late payments [3][5] - The incorporation of BNPL activity into credit scores emphasizes the importance of responsible usage among consumers [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed resilience on October 2, 2025, with major indexes closing at or near record highs despite a government shutdown [1][3] - Investor confidence was driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) innovations and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] Market Indexes Performance - The S&P 500 closed at 6,721.20, a 0.14% increase, marking a new all-time high [2] - The Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,831.05, up 0.33%, also achieving a new all-time high [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,547.37, posting a 0.23% gain [2] Economic Data and Events - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, including the jobs report, complicating Federal Reserve decision-making [4][5] - Upcoming economic indicators include the Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which will provide insights into the service sector [5] Sector Performance Technology Sector - Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose 1.59% to an all-time high of $188.59, driven by robust AI demand [7] - Microsoft (MSFT) increased by 1.45%, benefiting from strong growth in cloud services and AI initiatives [7] - The global chip sector saw gains following a partnership announcement between OpenAI and South Korean firms, with OpenAI valued at $500 billion [8] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) gained approximately 3.5% and 2% respectively, driven by demand for data center and AI chips [9] Automotive Sector - Tesla (TSLA) shares declined 3.5% despite better-than-expected delivery figures [10] - Stellantis (STLA) saw an 8% increase in stock price after reporting a 6% rise in U.S. sales for Q3, with a notable 16% jump in September sales [10] Other Notable Company News - Nike (NKE) shares rose 1.56% after reporting Q1 fiscal 2026 revenues of $11.72 billion, surpassing estimates [11] - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) shares jumped 5.4% after reporting adjusted earnings that beat consensus estimates [12] - Fair Isaac (FICO) rallied 20% after introducing a new pricing option for mortgage lenders, negatively impacting major credit agencies [13]

Shares of FICO score provider Fair Isaac are surging while credit bureaus are seeing some pressure pretty much across the board. Diana Ollex here with more on what's driving the move. Morning Diana. >> Good morning Carl.Yeah, FICO, which is the credit score that decides if you and I qualify for mortgages and at what interest rate, is now licensing its scores directly to lenders instead of going through the credit bureaus like TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian. And those bureaus are the middlemen. They charg ...