Group 1 - The increase in the 10-year Treasury yield is leading to higher mortgage rates, negatively impacting home-building related stocks [1] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF experienced a 1.5% decline, marking its largest percentage drop since January 7 [1] - Major home builders such as D.R. Horton reported flat earnings, while Lennar and PulteGroup saw declines of 0.8% and 1.5% respectively [1] Group 2 - Builder stocks had previously benefited from optimism due to a decline in mortgage rates earlier in the month [2] - This decline in mortgage rates was influenced by a statement from President Donald Trump regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchasing mortgage-backed securities [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated pre-tax income of $798 million on revenues of $6.9 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 11.6% [5] - Earnings per diluted share were $2.03, down from $2.61 in the prior year quarter [9] - Net income for the quarter was $595 million, with home sales revenues of $6.5 billion from 17,818 homes closed, compared to $7.1 billion from 19,059 homes closed in the prior year quarter [9][10] - The gross profit margin on home sales revenues was 20.4%, up 40 basis points sequentially [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales orders increased by 3% year-over-year to 18,300 homes, while order value remained unchanged at $6.7 billion [10] - The average price of net sales orders was $364,000, flat sequentially and down 2% from the prior year quarter [10] - The company started 18,500 homes in the December quarter, up 27% sequentially [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 64% of the mortgage company's closings were to first-time home buyers [8] - The average closing price for the quarter was $365,500, which is approximately $135,000 lower than the average sales price of new homes in the U.S. [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver returns to shareholders, having returned $4.4 billion through repurchases and dividends over the past 12 months [7] - The strategy includes tailoring product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [8] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to growth, focusing on community count and market share while managing margins [90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that new home demand is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, but they are responding with discipline [5] - The company expects consolidated revenues for the second quarter to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $7.8 billion, with homes closed expected to be between 19,700 and 20,200 [21] - Management expressed confidence in their positioning for the spring selling season, noting that lower mortgage rates have spurred some activity [40][94] Other Important Information - The company generated $3.6 billion of cash from operations over the past 12 months and has a strong balance sheet with low leverage [7][19] - The company’s capital allocation strategy is disciplined, with plans for $2.5 billion in common stock repurchases and around $500 million in dividend payments for the year [18][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about SG&A expenses - Management stated that SG&A expenses were slightly down year-over-year in absolute dollars, but the ratio increased due to lower closings [25] Question: Community count growth expectations - Management expects community count growth to continue but may drift down to mid-single to high-single digit range [31] Question: Impact of lower mortgage rates on demand - Management noted that lower rates have historically spurred activity in sales offices, but it is too early to determine the full impact [50] Question: Warranty costs and their impact on gross margins - Management indicated that warranty recovery was unexpected but beneficial, and they expect warranty costs to normalize going forward [56] Question: Land market conditions - Management observed that while there hasn't been significant capitulation in the raw land market, there have been rational conversations with land developers [46] Question: Balance between volume and margin - Management emphasized a balanced approach, focusing on maximizing returns while responding to market conditions [90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated pre-tax income of $798 million on revenues of $6.9 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 11.6% [5] - Earnings per diluted share were $2.03, down from $2.61 in the prior year quarter [9] - Net income for the quarter was $595 million, with home sales revenues of $6.5 billion from 17,818 homes closed, compared to $7.1 billion from 19,059 homes closed in the prior year quarter [9][10] - The gross profit margin on home sales revenues was 20.4%, up 40 basis points sequentially [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales orders increased by 3% year-over-year to 18,300 homes, while order value remained unchanged at $6.7 billion [10] - The average price of net sales orders was $364,000, flat sequentially and down 2% from the prior year quarter [10] - The company started 18,500 homes in the December quarter, up 27% sequentially [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 64% of mortgage company closings were to first-time home buyers, indicating a focus on affordable housing [8] - The average closing price for the quarter was $365,500, which is approximately $135,000 lower than the average sales price of new homes in the U.S. [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver returns to shareholders, having returned $4.4 billion through repurchases and dividends over the past 12 months [7] - The strategy includes tailoring product offerings and sales incentives based on market demand to maximize returns [8] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to growth, focusing on community count and market share while managing costs [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that new home demand is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, but they are responding with discipline [5] - The company expects consolidated revenues for the second quarter to be in the range of $7.3-$7.8 billion and homes closed to be between 19,700-20,200 [21] - Management expressed confidence in their ability to adapt to market conditions and enhance long-term value [22] Other Important Information - The company generated $3.6 billion in cash from operations over the past 12 months and has a strong balance sheet with low leverage [7][19] - The company’s capital allocation strategy is disciplined, with a focus on maintaining leverage around 20% over the long term [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about SG&A expenses - Management stated that SG&A expenses were slightly down year-over-year in absolute dollars, but the ratio increased due to lower closings [25] Question: Community count growth expectations - Management expects community count growth to continue but may drift down to mid-single to high-single digit range [31] Question: Impact of incentives on gross margins - Management confirmed that incentives increased throughout the quarter, impacting gross margins for the second quarter [82] Question: Demand trends with lower mortgage rates - Management noted a pickup in demand as rates hover around 6%, but it is too early to determine the trajectory for the spring selling season [50] Question: Land market conditions - Management indicated that while there is no significant capitulation in the raw land market, there have been rational conversations with land development partners [47]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - D.R. Horton reported consolidated pre-tax income of $798 million on revenues of $6.9 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 11.6% for Q1 2026 [4] - Earnings per diluted share decreased to $2.03 from $2.61 in the prior year quarter, with net income of $595 million [7] - Home sales revenues were $6.5 billion from 17,818 homes closed, down from $7.1 billion from 19,059 homes closed in the prior year quarter [7][8] - The average closing price for homes was $365,500, flat sequentially but down 3% year over year [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales orders increased by 3% year over year to 18,300 homes, while order value remained unchanged at $6.7 billion [10] - The gross profit margin on home sales revenues was 20.4%, up 40 basis points sequentially, primarily due to a recovery of prior-period warranty costs [11] - Home building SG&A expenses decreased by 1% year over year, but as a percentage of revenues, it increased to 9.7% from 8.9% in the prior year quarter [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 64% of mortgage company closings were to first-time home buyers, indicating a focus on affordable housing [6] - The average number of active selling communities increased by 2% sequentially and 12% year over year [10] - The company ended the quarter with 30,400 homes in inventory, of which 20,000 were unsold [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - D.R. Horton is focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver returns to shareholders, with $3.6 billion generated from operations over the past 12 months [5] - The company aims to tailor product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [6] - The strategy includes managing investments in lots, land, and development based on current market conditions, with a focus on relationships with land developers [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that new home demand is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, but they are responding with discipline [4] - The company expects consolidated revenues for Q2 2026 to be in the range of $7.3-$7.8 billion and homes closed to be between 19,700-20,200 [24] - For the full year, the company anticipates consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5-$35 billion and homes closed to be in the range of 86,000-88,000 [25] Other Important Information - D.R. Horton repurchased 4.4 million shares for $670 million and paid cash dividends of $0.45 per share, totaling $132 million [21] - The company has a strong balance sheet with $6.6 billion of consolidated liquidity and plans to maintain leverage around 20% over the long term [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about SG&A expenses - Management stated that SG&A was in line with expectations and attributed the increase to lower closings, but they expect it to stabilize over the year [28][29] Question: Capital allocation and cash flow expectations - Management confirmed that cash flow expectations remain reasonable, with a target of over $3 billion for the year [32] Question: Community count growth and future expectations - Management expects community count growth to continue but may drift down to mid-single to high-single digit range [35] Question: Warranty costs impact on gross margin - Management indicated that warranty recovery was unexpected but beneficial, and they expect warranty costs to normalize going forward [59][61] Question: Demand trends and inventory levels - Management noted that demand remains strong despite low job growth, and inventory levels are more balanced compared to the previous year [97][91]

Core Insights - Builder confidence has decreased, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January, indicating persistent challenges in the housing market [1] - The underlying components of the index have weakened, with current sales conditions at 41 and prospective buyer traffic at 23, while future sales expectations have dropped to 49, below the breakeven level for the first time since September [2] - Affordability issues are impacting lower and mid-range housing sectors, despite a recent decline in mortgage rates to the lowest level in three years [3] Pricing and Sales Trends - 40% of builders reported cutting home prices in January, with the average price reduction increasing to 6%, while the use of sales incentives remains high at 65% [4] - Regional builder confidence varies, with the Northeast at 45, the Midwest at 43, the South at 35, and the West at 35, all affected by affordability and cost pressures [5]

Core Insights - Fenimore Asset Management's Q4 2025 investor letter indicates a solid yet volatile stock market, influenced by AI enthusiasm, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy concerns [1] - The firm anticipates mixed market conditions in 2026, with many AI-related stocks appearing expensive while high-quality companies are trading at multi-year lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [1] Performance Summary - The S&P 500 Index rose by 2.66% in Q4 2025, with large-cap technology and communication services sectors leading the market [1] - Fenimore Small Cap Strategy returned -4.12%, underperforming the Russell 2000 Index, which returned 2.19% [1] - Fenimore Dividend Focus Strategy declined -4.41% compared to the Russell Midcap Index's 0.16% return [1] - Fenimore Value Strategy saw a decline of -1.17% in Q4, also underperforming against the Russell Midcap Index [1] Company-Specific Insights - Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NYSE:DFH) was identified as a significant performance detractor in the Fenimore Small Cap Strategy [2][3] - As of January 15, 2026, Dream Finders Homes, Inc. had a stock price of $20.30, with a one-month return of 13.41% but a 52-week loss of 15.87% [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $1.88 billion [2] - Challenges in affordability for first-time home buyers have impacted Dream Finders Homes, Inc., despite the company's asset-light approach and skilled management [3]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has launched two new luxury home collections, the Atley Collection and Brookhaven Collection, at the Sterling Grove master-planned community in Surprise, Arizona, with a grand opening event scheduled for January 17, 2026 [1][7] Group 1: Atley Collection - The Atley Collection features three new home designs ranging from 2,021 to 2,439 square feet, offering 4 to 5 bedrooms and 2.5 to 3 bathrooms, with prices starting from the mid-$400,000s [3] Group 2: Brookhaven Collection - The Brookhaven Collection includes three two-story home designs ranging from 2,449 to 2,892 square feet, featuring 5 bedrooms and 3 to 4 bathrooms, with prices starting from the low $500,000s [4] Group 3: Community Features - Sterling Grove is an award-winning community with amenities such as lush parks, gardens, water features, walking trails, a Troon-managed clubhouse, resort-style pools, dining options, a spa, and a fitness center [6] Group 4: Customer Experience - Toll Brothers offers a Design Studio for customers to personalize their homes with a wide selection of options, supported by professional Design Consultants [5] Group 5: Company Overview - Toll Brothers, Inc. is a leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986, operating in over 60 markets across the U.S. and providing various services including architectural and engineering [10]

Group 1 - Sales in October last year decreased to 737,000 from 738,000 in September, indicating a slight decline [1] - However, sales showed an increase compared to a downwardly revised figure of 711,000 in August, reflecting a recovery trend [1]

Economic Indicators - US housing starts unexpectedly fell by 4.6% month-over-month to a 5.5-year low of 1.246 million, weaker than expectations of 1.330 million [1] - US building permits fell by 0.2% to 1.412 million, which was stronger than expectations of 1.350 million [1] - US nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, weaker than expectations of 70,000, while November's payrolls were revised lower to 56,000 from 64,000 [2] - The December unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.4%, better than expectations of 4.5% [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by 0.65%, reaching a new all-time high, supported by a resilient US labor market [5][6] - Chipmakers and data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk closing up more than 12% and Intel up more than 10% [15] - Home builders and suppliers rallied after President Trump announced plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, with Builders FirstSource closing up more than 12% [16] - Power producers also experienced gains, with Vistra closing up more than 10% following electricity deals with Meta Platforms [17] Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's US January consumer sentiment index rose by 1.1 to 54.0, stronger than expectations of 53.5 [6] - January 1-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2%, while 5-10 year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in December [7] Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Commentary - The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 4-week high of 4.203%, influenced by rising inflation expectations and hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [10][11] - The markets are currently discounting a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [8] International Market Trends - European stock markets, including the Euro Stoxx 50, reached new record highs, with a 1.58% increase [9] - China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 10.5-year high, closing up by 0.92% [9]

Group 1: Housing Market - US housing starts unexpectedly fell by 4.6% month-over-month to a 5.5-year low of 1.246 million, weaker than expectations of 1.330 million [1] - October building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell by 0.2% to 1.412 million, stronger than expectations of 1.350 million [1] - Home builders and home building suppliers are rallying after President Trump called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower long-term rates and spur housing demand [4][13] Group 2: Labor Market - US nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, weaker than expectations of 70,000, with November's payrolls revised lower to 56,000 from 64,000 [2] - The December unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 4.5% [2] - Average hourly earnings rose more than expected, supporting the notion of a resilient labor market [5] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes are climbing on optimism regarding the economic outlook, supported by signs of a resilient labor market and mixed housing news [5] - The S&P 500 Index is up by 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by 0.59% [6] - Home builders and building suppliers are seeing significant gains, with Builders FirstSource up more than 7% and other major builders up more than 4% [13] Group 4: Inflation and Interest Rates - The University of Michigan's January 1-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2%, while the 5-10 year expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2% [7] - Rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate reaching a 1.5-month high of 2.296% [11] - The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [7]