Core Insights - D.R. Horton, Inc. has recently missed expectations in home building, revenues, deliveries, and earnings per share, leading to concerns about the company's performance in the current economic climate [1] - The company is facing challenges that require it to offer incentives to boost sales, indicating a potential compromise on pricing strategies [1] - D.R. Horton provided weak revenue guidance for the 2026 fiscal year, despite projecting better-than-expected deliveries, highlighting a cautious outlook from management [1] - The current quarter's guidance was particularly weak, contributing to a significant decline in the stock price [1] - The housing industry is heavily influenced by interest rates, and D.R. Horton is in need of lower rates to stimulate business activity [1] Company Overview - D.R. Horton, Inc. operates in the construction and sale of single-family and multi-family homes across the United States [2]

Company Overview - Lennar Corporation (LEN) is a prominent U.S. home-builder and diversified real-estate company, with a market capitalization of approximately $32.7 billion [1] Earnings Projections - Analysts anticipate Lennar to report a profit of $2.30 per share for fiscal Q4 2025, representing a decline of 42.9% from $4.03 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year, EPS is expected to be $8.25, down 40.5% from $13.86 per share in fiscal 2024, with a projected rebound in fiscal 2026 to $9.01, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.2% [3] Stock Performance - LEN stock has decreased by 26.4% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's return of 18.3% and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's increase of 19.8% during the same period [4] - The stock is currently trading slightly above its mean price target of $127.57, with a Street-high target price of $161, indicating a potential rally of up to 25.6% from current levels [5] Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market remains weak, with home-buying affordability impacted by high mortgage rates, leading to reduced demand and affecting sales [5] - Wall Street analysts maintain a cautious stance on LEN stock, with an overall "Hold" rating; among 19 analysts, four recommend a "Strong Buy," 13 advise a "Hold," and two suggest a "Strong Sell" [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - D.R. Horton reported consolidated pre-tax income of $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion for Q4 2025, with a pre-tax profit margin of 12.4% [7] - For the full year, consolidated pre-tax income was $4.7 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.8% [7] - Net income for Q4 was $905.3 million, or $3.04 per diluted share, on consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion [9] - The average closing sales price for Q4 was $365,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year-over-year [9] - The company generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations in fiscal 2025, representing 10% of total revenues [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home sales revenues for Q4 were $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed [9] - Net sales orders in Q4 increased 5% year-over-year to 20,078 homes, with order value increasing 3% to $7.3 billion [10] - The gross profit margin on home sales revenues in Q4 was 20%, down 180 basis points sequentially [11] - Rental operations generated $81 million of pre-tax income on $805 million of revenues in Q4 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average number of active selling communities was up 1% sequentially and up 13% from the prior year [10] - The company’s home building lot position at year-end consisted of approximately 592,000 lots, with 25% owned and 75% controlled through purchase contracts [15] - Lot costs increased by 8% year-over-year on a per square foot basis [60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - D.R. Horton remains focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to shareholders [8] - The company plans to tailor product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [8] - The strategic relationship with Forestar is vital for the company’s returns-focused business model, with Forestar reporting revenues of $671 million in Q4 [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that new home demand will continue to be impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment [21] - For fiscal 2026, the company expects consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 billion to $35 billion and homes closed to be in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 [21] - Management expressed a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term, despite current volatility and uncertainty in the economy [23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 4.6 million shares for $689 million in Q4 and 30.7 million shares for $4.3 billion for the full year [19] - D.R. Horton’s fiscal year-end stockholders' equity was $24.2 billion, down 4% from a year ago, but book value per share was up 5% to $82.15 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about the transition from 20% gross margin in Q4 to 20%-20.5% in Q1? - Management indicated that the unusual impact from litigation costs is not expected to persist into Q1, and the baseline would reflect a more normal impact from warranty and litigation going forward [27] Question: Can you discuss the starts pace and how quickly it can ramp up? - Management acknowledged that starts were intentionally lower to align inventory and indicated confidence in ramping up starts to meet demand as needed [28] Question: What is the outlook for rental operations in Q1? - Management expects rental operations to be a bit softer in Q1, with a heavier delivery expected in the back half of the year [32] Question: Can you provide insight into the Southeast market performance? - Management noted that while some areas in Florida are struggling with inventory balance, overall demand in the Southeast remains choppy [74] Question: What are the expectations for lot costs moving forward? - Management indicated that lot costs are expected to remain sticky, with an 8% year-over-year increase noted [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the fourth quarter, consolidated pre-tax income was $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion, resulting in a pre-tax profit margin of 12.4% [5] - For the full year, consolidated pre-tax income was $4.7 billion with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.8% [5] - Net income for the quarter was $905.3 million or $3.04 per diluted share, while for the year, net income was $3.6 billion or $11.57 per diluted share on revenues of $34.3 billion [7] - The average closing sales price for the quarter was $365,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year over year [7] - The company generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations after making home building investments totaling $8.5 billion [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home sales revenues for the fourth quarter were $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed [7] - Net sales orders in the fourth quarter increased 5% year over year to 20,078 homes, with order value increasing 3% to $7.3 billion [8] - The average price of net sales orders in the fourth quarter was $364,900, flat sequentially and down 3% from the prior year [8] - Rental operations generated $81 million of pre-tax income on $805 million of revenues from the sale of 1,565 single-family rental homes and 1,815 multifamily rental units [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average number of active selling communities was up 1% sequentially and up 13% from the prior year [8] - The company’s home building lot position at year-end consisted of approximately 592,000 lots, with 25% owned and 75% controlled through purchase contracts [13] - In the Southeast region, particularly Florida, some markets like Jacksonville and Southwest Florida faced excess inventory issues [68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to shareholders [6] - The strategy includes tailoring product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [6] - The company plans to purchase approximately $2.5 billion of its common stock during fiscal 2026, in addition to paying dividends of around $500 million [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects new home demand to reflect ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment [19] - For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates generating consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 to $35 billion and homes closed to be in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 [19] - Management expressed a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term despite current volatility and uncertainty in the economy [21] Other Important Information - The company’s return on equity was 14.6%, and return on assets was 10% [5] - The company repurchased 4.6 million shares of common stock for $689 million in the fourth quarter, totaling 30.7 million shares for $4.3 billion for the full year [17] - The company’s book value per share increased by 5% from a year ago to $82.15 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about the walk from the 20% gross margin in Q4 to 20-20.5% in Q1? - Management indicated that the unusual impact from litigation is not expected to persist into Q1, and the guide reflects the current environment and level of incentives [24][26] Question: How quickly can the company ramp starts to meet demand? - Management acknowledged that starts were intentionally lower to align inventory and expressed confidence in their ability to respond to market demand [25][26] Question: Is the outlook for Q1 anticipating seasonal lightness in profitability? - Management expects rental operations to be softer in Q1, impacting consolidated operating margin due to lower closings volume [29][30] Question: Can you provide additional color on the Southeast region's performance? - Management noted that while some markets in Florida are struggling with inventory balance, there are still bright spots throughout the state [68] Question: What are the expectations for lot costs and stick and brick costs? - Management expects lot costs to remain sticky, but anticipates reductions in stick and brick costs as they renegotiate terms [50][51]

Core Points - Toll Brothers, Inc. has been recognized with six awards at the Colorado Springs Parade of Homes, including Best Overall Home for the Ridgway Contemporary design priced between $790,000 and $850,000 [1][5] - The Parade of Homes featured 32 homes from 16 builders, showcasing various price ranges and categories [2][3] Company Achievements - Toll Brothers received six awards for its homes in Colorado Springs, highlighting its excellence in home building [5][3] - The awards included Best Architectural Exterior for the Grace Elite Farmhouse, Best Primary Suite for both the Blodgett Farmhouse and Ridgway Contemporary, Best Interior Design for the Blodgett Farmhouse, and Best Kitchen for the Ridgway Contemporary [7] Home Features - The Grace Elite Farmhouse offers 1,842 square feet with 2 to 3 bedrooms and 2 to 3 bathrooms, located in a luxury townhome community with modern architecture and access to Cottonwood Creek Park [6] - The Blodgett Farmhouse features 1,953 square feet with 3 to 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, situated in a private, gated community [7] - The Ridgway Contemporary model provides 2,154 square feet of luxury living with 3 to 4 bedrooms and 2 to 3 bathrooms, located in a community with access to outdoor recreation and downtown [9] Company Background - Toll Brothers, Inc. is a Fortune 500 Company and the leading builder of luxury homes in the United States, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986 [11] - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and offers a range of services including architectural, engineering, and mortgage operations [11]

GE Aerospace - GE Aerospace's stock reached a record high of over $308 per share following strong quarterly results, driven by booming air travel demand and robust jet engine sales [2][5] - The company reported earnings of $1.66 per share, exceeding expectations, with revenue surpassing $12 billion, which was over $1 billion more than anticipated [3] - Profit increased by more than 30% year-over-year, and free cash flow also jumped 30%, indicating strong operational performance and improving margins [3][4] 3M - 3M's adjusted EPS was reported at $2.19, better than expected and up 10% year-over-year, with revenue reaching $6.3 billion, also exceeding forecasts [7] - The company experienced a 4% increase in revenue, supported by improved operating margins of over 22%, reflecting better efficiency and cost-cutting measures [7][8] - Product innovation played a significant role, with dozens of new products launched in the recent quarter [8] Housing Market (PI) - The housing market remains challenged, with high mortgage rates and inflation impacting buyer activity, leading to a 16% decline in profits for PI in the third quarter [10] - Earnings for PI were reported at $2.96 per share, which, despite being a beat, reflects a significant year-over-year drop [10] - Revenue was slightly better than expected at $4.4 billion but still down year-over-year, indicating ongoing difficulties in the housing sector [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - A pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield has positively impacted home builder stocks, providing relief to the sector [1] Group 1: Impact on Home Builder Stocks - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield has led to an increase in home builder stock prices, indicating a favorable market environment for the industry [1]

Group 1 - Home-building stocks are experiencing significant declines, with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF dropping below $100 for the first time since early August, indicating a challenging week for the sector [1] - The ETF is on track for its worst week since June 2022, reflecting investor concerns about weak buyer demand and an increase in new housing supply [1][2] - An Evercore analyst downgraded a group of builders due to worries about political pressure to increase home construction amidst hesitant buyer sentiment [2] Group 2 - The current market conditions are characterized by a combination of weak demand from buyers and higher-than-usual new housing supply, contributing to the negative sentiment in the home-building sector [2]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is launching a new luxury home community named Vista Oaks in Rocklin, California, on October 11, 2025, featuring 46 new construction homes in a prime location [1][4] Group 1: Community Features - Vista Oaks consists of one- and two-story luxury home designs with 4 to 5 bedrooms, 3.5 to 5.5 bathrooms, and up to 4,375 square feet of living space, with prices starting from $1.1 million [2][4] - The community is bordered by open space and mature trees, offering sophisticated architectural details and modern open floor plans [2] Group 2: Location and Accessibility - The community is situated near top-rated schools in the Rocklin Unified School District and is close to premium shopping and dining options, including Westfield Galleria at Roseville [5] - Vista Oaks has convenient access to Interstate 80, enhancing its appeal for commuters [5] Group 3: Company Background - Toll Brothers, Inc. is a Fortune 500 Company and the leading builder of luxury homes in the United States, operating in over 60 markets across 24 states [7] - The company has received multiple accolades, including being named one of Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for over 10 years and Builder of the Year by Builder magazine [8]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is launching a new luxury home community named Santa Rosa Valley Estates in Southern California, opening for pre-model pricing on October 4, 2025 [1][4] - The community features 18 luxury homes on equestrian home sites up to five acres, with prices starting from $2.9 million [2][1] - Homes in this community offer modern designs with sizes up to 6,000 square feet, including options for multigenerational living suites and detached casitas [2][4] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is recognized as the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986 [9] - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and the District of Columbia, serving various buyer segments including first-time and second-home buyers [9][10] - Toll Brothers has received multiple accolades, including being named one of Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for over 10 years [11]