Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a sell-off as Wall Street executives indicated that equities are overvalued, with a potential drop of more than 10% in the U.S. stock market within the next 12 to 24 months being a possibility [1] - Concerns have been raised about a potential artificial intelligence stock bubble, with analysts expressing worries about overvaluation in this sector [1] Company Performance - Palantir Technologies raised its annual revenue outlook to $4.4 billion and reported a 63% increase in revenue to $1.18 billion for the third quarter, with profit at $0.21 per share, yet its shares fell due to concerns over high valuation [2] - The inability of Palantir's stock to rally despite strong quarterly results suggests that bullish news may already be priced in [2] Private Credit Concerns - Bond traders are increasingly worried about the stability of private credit deals, which have grown to a $1.7 trillion industry, with warnings from senior financiers about potential cracks in this market [4][6] - TCW Group's CEO expressed nervousness about parts of private credit, while another investment officer noted a "race to the bottom" in terms of covenants [5] - U.S. life insurers have significantly increased their private debt investments, allocating nearly one-third of their $5.6 trillion in assets to this sector, raising concerns about regulatory weaknesses [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - SLR Investment Corp reported net investment income of $0.40 per share and net income of $0.43 per share for Q3 2025, with net asset value per share increasing slightly to $18.21 [4][14] - The company's net income for the quarter equates to a 9.4% annualized return on equity, with net investment per share being a penny below the base dividend of $0.41 [4][16] - Gross investment income totaled $57 million, up from $53.9 million in the previous quarter, while net expenses increased to $35.4 million from $32.3 million [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - During Q3, SLR originated $447 million in new investments, a 12.7% increase year-over-year, and received repayments of $419 million [5][10] - Approximately 93% of Q3 originations were in specialty finance, reflecting a strategic shift towards this area due to more attractive risk-adjusted returns [10][11] - The asset-based lending (ABL) portfolio totaled over $1.4 billion, representing 44% of the total portfolio, with a weighted average asset-level yield of 13.4% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand for corporate asset-based lending solutions as companies seek liquidity amid uncertain economic conditions [9] - The weighted average yield on the comprehensive portfolio was 12.2%, consistent with the prior quarter, indicating stability in the portfolio's performance [21] - The portfolio's risk profile remains strong, with 99.5% of investments performing and only one investment on non-accrual [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - SLR continues to focus on specialty finance strategies due to their higher pricing and greater downside protection [18] - The company is strategically hiring to expand its asset-based lending capabilities, with over 100 new hires in the past two years [9][40] - SLR's multi-strategy approach to private credit investing is designed to preserve capital and provide a diversified investment portfolio [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed awareness of elevated concerns regarding credit quality in the private credit industry but emphasized SLR's conservative approach to cash flow lending [6][7] - The company believes that ABL remains the most compelling risk-adjusted opportunity in private credit heading into 2026 [20] - Management highlighted the importance of rigorous underwriting practices in light of recent market scrutiny and failures in the asset-backed finance market [19] Other Important Information - SLR's investment portfolio had a fair market value of approximately $2.1 billion, with 109 portfolio companies across 31 industries [14] - The company has over $850 million of available capital to deploy, positioning it well for both stable and softening economic conditions [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did you mention that you had hired 100 new people over the past two years? - Yes, primarily in our asset-based and special lending strategies [39] Question: Is there something specific that you do to ensure 100% of your assets are qualified? - 100% are qualified assets, and we have not been limited in growing our special finance and asset-based lending strategies [41] Question: Can you dig into the asset-based lending churn? - The churn is often due to companies in transition, with asset-based structures typically having a two to three-year duration [42] Question: How do you adjust underwriting for depreciating equipment in equipment finance? - Extensions of existing leases are effectively profit to the bottom line for us, as we have already amortized out the equipment [43] Question: What do you think about the attractiveness of ABL going into 2026? - ABL is viewed as a manufacturing business requiring significant infrastructure, making it difficult for new entrants [45] Question: Is the dividend sustainable given the forward curve? - The last several quarters have seen fluctuations around the dividend, and adjustments will be made based on portfolio performance [47]

Core Viewpoint - The tension between large banks and private credit firms is escalating, particularly regarding systemic risks in the US insurance industry due to private financing and regulatory concerns [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher highlighted the "lack of effective regulation" in the insurance sector, suggesting it leads to a "looming systemic risk" as small rating agencies proliferate [1]. - Kelleher compared the current situation to the 2007 subprime crisis, indicating that there is significant rating agency arbitrage occurring in the insurance business [2]. Group 2: Private Capital Response - Apollo CEO Marc Rowan countered Kelleher's claims, asserting that 70% of Athene's assets are rated by major agencies like S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, thus challenging the notion that ratings are the primary concern [3]. - Rowan acknowledged that while Kelleher's concerns about systemic risk are valid, the focus should not solely be on private letter ratings but rather on the movement of assets to jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands, which lack robust regulatory frameworks [4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The insurance industry, a significant institutional investor, has increasingly invested in private credit assets, with private equity firms establishing captive insurance lenders or partnering with large insurance providers [2]. - Both Rowan and Ares' Michael Arougheti agreed that larger players in the industry tend to be more reliable, indicating a preference for established firms in navigating these risks [5].

Core Insights - Apollo Chief Executive Marc Rowan addressed investor concerns regarding market volatility and economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Apollo's leadership is focused on stabilizing investor confidence amid challenging market conditions [1] - The company is actively engaging with investors to clarify its strategies and outlook [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The investment landscape is currently characterized by heightened volatility, prompting companies like Apollo to reassess their approaches [1] - Economic uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment across the industry, leading to cautious investment strategies [1]

Investment in Nuclear Energy - Brookfield is involved in an $80 billion investment in new nuclear plants in the United States, which aims to revitalize the nuclear industry and build a supply chain across America [1][2][4] - The U.S. government is financing the construction of these plants, which will be built by Westinghouse, with Brookfield owning half of the venture [4][5] Public-Private Partnerships - The current U.S. administration is focused on less regulation and more business-friendly policies, which supports public-private partnerships in infrastructure projects [5][20] - The government aims to ensure that American citizens benefit from successful investments in re-industrialization [5] Construction Timeline and Efficiency - The first nuclear plant in South Carolina is expected to be operational by 2030, while subsequent plants will take six to eight years to complete [6] - There is an expectation that as experience and supply chains develop, construction times will decrease over time [6] Energy Demand and Infrastructure - The energy demand is projected to double in the next 15 years, necessitating a diverse energy mix including nuclear, solar, gas, and hydro [9][18] - The need for AI infrastructure and data centers is critical, as countries must adapt to support technological advancements [17][19] Growth in Data Centers - The demand for data centers is increasing significantly, with major technology companies requiring substantial power for operations [12][26] - The capital required for building AI infrastructure is substantial, with estimates of $50 billion for a single AI factory [12][13] Private Credit Market - The private credit market has grown from zero to $2 trillion and is expected to continue expanding significantly in the coming years [31] - This growth is driven by financial institutions shifting their focus to longer-term loan holdings, creating opportunities for private credit firms [31]

First Brands' Fram air filters at an auto parts store in Provo, Utah. Recent failures in the credit markets, including First Brands Group and Tricolor Holdings, have fueled a frenzy around how much risk is sitting in private debt portfolios. But for Ares Management Corp. executives, the losses actually make private credit look good, while presenting an opportunity to snag more deals. Neither of the collapses are “really impacting our market that much so far,” Kort Schnabel, the chief executive officer of ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is alert to a potential shadow banking crisis due to growing concerns in the private credit industry, despite having relatively small exposure to it [1][3]. Group 1: Concerns and Risks - HSBC's CFO, Pam Kaur, emphasized the importance of monitoring "second and third order risks" from counterparties affected by issues in the private credit sector [2]. - The recent collapses of First Brands and Tricolor, both reliant on private credit, have heightened concerns about the stability of the shadow banking industry [3][4]. - The Bank for International Settlements warned that the life insurance industry may harbor hidden risks due to increasing exposures to private credit [4][5]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The private credit market is valued at approximately $3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) and is characterized by a lack of transparency and potentially lax lending standards [3]. - Private ratings in this sector are not publicly disclosed, which complicates external validation and may lead to inflated creditworthiness assessments [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, expressed concerns about the potential for more collapses in the shadow banking sector, likening the situation to seeing "one cockroach" indicating more issues may exist [4]. - Conversely, Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon downplayed fears of a systemic crisis within the shadow banking industry [8].

Core Insights - CEO Jan van Eck expresses optimism about fiscal progress and market balance while emphasizing the importance of selectivity as AI evolves, credit tightens, and policy shifts continue [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology - AI compute shortage is significant, with token demand increasing by 38 times, but chip and model efficiency are helping to balance supply [5] - Nvidia's growth rate and visible demand through 2027 suggest that its valuations may be justified, indicating it may not be overpriced [5] - Gaming is emerging as a surprising beneficiary of AI, with faster development and improved video quality potentially making it a major sector for growth [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Valuations - Nuclear valuations have reached high levels after exceptional returns, warranting caution [5] - OpenAI's financing remains a vulnerability as it becomes part of the new "Mag 8" [5] - The long-term case for gold remains strong due to central bank demand, fiscal strain, and inflation risk [5] Group 3: Credit and Fiscal Developments - Private credit is facing a quality test, highlighted by recent bankruptcies that emphasize the need for liquidity and strong underwriting [5] - Not all Business Development Companies (BDCs) are equal; liquidity and quality will differentiate successful firms from those lagging behind as market conditions tighten [5] - The U.S. deficit has narrowed to approximately 5.9% of GDP, indicating a modest but meaningful fiscal improvement [5]

Core Insights - The private credit market, valued at $1.7 trillion, is shifting towards more frequent portfolio valuations to attract individual investors, marking a significant change from its traditionally opaque practices [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Many fund managers are now offering vehicles that allow retail investors to invest on a monthly or daily basis, necessitating more frequent updates of net asset values (NAV) [3][5]. - Interval funds have raised nearly $123 billion as of Q3, reflecting a 9.4% increase from the previous period, with a significant portion allocated to debt and fixed income [6]. Group 2: Valuation Practices - The frequency of valuations has increased, with about 20% of direct lending clients now requiring monthly valuations, a notable rise from five years ago when such practices were rare [5]. - Fidelity Investments reports that 100% of its portfolio is marked by a third party every month, ensuring timely updates based on borrower performance [7]. Group 3: Challenges and Limitations - Despite more frequent NAV calculations, many firms still do not provide monthly updates on the value of individual loans, leading to potential confusion for investors [8]. - The valuation of private credit loans remains a contentious issue, especially when loans underperform, as there is no standard trading mechanism to assess their value over time [9]. - Investors are cautioned that more frequent marks do not equate to the ability to trade these products easily, as the process of buying in and withdrawing funds can be complex [10].

Core Insights - The investment banking sector is experiencing a surge in profits and deal activity, indicating a potential recovery phase following previous downturns [1][4][5] - Significant inflows of over $50 billion have contributed to a 50% increase in distributable earnings, highlighting a strong performance in digital and energy infrastructure [2][3] - The current environment, characterized by lower capital costs and tightening spreads, is conducive to increased M&A and IPO activities in the upcoming year [6][7] Deal Activity - M&A activity in the US rose by 64%, while IPOs saw a remarkable increase of 100% in the third quarter [5] - The company announced an $18 billion deal with Whole Logic, marking a notable achievement in deal-making [5] - Despite the positive trends, overall M&A and IPO activity remains low compared to historical levels [5] Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve's actions to lower rates and the overall improvement in the stock market are seen as favorable for deal-making [6][10] - Concerns regarding trade policy and inflation persist, but there are signs of stabilization in rental housing and labor markets, which could support further economic recovery [7][10][11] Private Credit Landscape - The private credit market is viewed positively, with a focus on delivering premium returns over liquid markets despite tightening spreads [23][24] - The company emphasizes that recent credit troubles are not indicative of the overall health of private credit, as they primarily involve non-institutional borrowers [16][21] - There is a strong demand for private credit from insurance clients, reflecting confidence in the sector [24] Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the next year, anticipating continued growth in M&A and IPO activities [7][12] - The focus remains on organic growth rather than acquisitions, with a commitment to building capabilities internally [26][28] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance productivity and improve the work experience for analysts and associates [30][33]