近期，商品期货市场掀起一轮涨停潮，多只品种价格大幅波动，引发市场高度关注。7月25日，铁合 金、碳酸锂、焦煤等盘中纷纷涨停，焦煤期货部分合约连续第五日涨停，碳酸锂连续第二日涨停。据 悉，自6月3日至7月25日，焦煤期货价格上涨幅度达73%；自7月1日至7月25日，多晶硅期货价格涨幅达 56%，玻璃期货价格涨幅达35%，碳酸锂期货价格涨幅达30%。 "7月以来，焦煤、焦炭、多晶硅、工业硅、玻璃、纯碱等工业品期货主力合约涨幅显著，工业品上涨主 要受'反内卷'政策预期以及煤炭涨价带来的下游减产预期影响。不过，农产品期货价格涨幅相对较小， 与拉尼娜气候及农产品主产国的出口政策有关。"西安交大客座教授景川在接受《华夏时报》记者采访 时表示。 "从基本面上，当前铁水产量处于高位，需求有韧性，焦煤区域性供给略偏紧，拉动了现货市场情绪， 贸易商相继进场拿货，锁住了部分现货库存。此外，下游也出现补库迹象，在多方需求叠加的基础上， 煤矿库存进一步去化。受此影响，现货价格也大幅上涨，现货价格的上涨进一步助推期货价格上行，在 买涨不买跌的市场情绪下，期货和现货价格相互共振上行。"周涛称。 随着焦煤期货价格上涨，焦煤现货价格也出现明显 ...

【钢材】 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆★ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★★☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★★☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面继续上涨。本周螺纹表需明显回暖，产量小幅回升，库存重新下降，热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 "反内卷 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the "anti - involution" market has been the main macro - logical line in the market. With the approaching of the Political Bureau meeting, investors need to be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market. Although there are expectations of a new round of supply - side reform, market differences are more prominent due to concerns about the global economic slowdown and the difficulty of strong demand - boosting policies during the economic transformation period. Additionally, the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may affect the capital market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market has dominated the market. The A - share market has approached 3600 points, and commodities show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, with hot spots constantly spreading. However, recent market fluctuations have been intense, and some varieties have seen excessive increases [1]. Market Analysis - The current commodity market started at the end of June and early July, based on low - valued absolute prices and driven by the "anti - involution" concept, potentially evolving into a new round of supply - side reform market. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the upcoming release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten - industry stable - growth plan have strengthened the market's policy expectations [2]. - There are three main investment opportunity lines from supply shocks in the second half of the year: "anti - involution" supply - side reform, supply disruptions caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and abnormal weather. But due to weak global demand, the upward trend will be a pulsed, phased, and structural market [2]. Market Characteristics - New energy varieties lead the way, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate taking turns to drive the market [2]. - The black building materials sector acts as the rear guard. Core varieties such as coking coal and glass have seen excessive increases and rapid growth rates. For example, from June 2025 to the present, coking coal has increased by 68.58%, and glass by 35.27% [2][5]. - The hot - spot varieties rotate and spread rapidly, from new - energy non - ferrous metals to black building materials, and then to lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. The leading varieties, coking coal and glass, have significantly higher increases and growth rates than historical markets [6]. Risks and Suggestions - Multiple exchanges have issued risk alerts due to the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and excessive increases in some varieties. As the important meeting approaches, policy games will face real - world tests. The repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may also impact the capital market. Investors should be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market [9].

Group 1 - The concept of "Aura" proposed by Walter Benjamin relates to a transcendent response that connects distant people and objects, similar to the "artistic conception" in Eastern culture [1] - The introduction of silver plate photography in China during the mid-19th century and its acceptance by the Qing government marked a significant cultural shift [1] - The Fushun West Open-pit Coal Mine, as a core energy base during China's first five-year plan, has a mining history of 118 years and has significantly contributed to China's industrial development [4][5] Group 2 - The Fushun West Open-pit Coal Mine has provided thousands of jobs and has led to the establishment of a complete industrial chain, contributing to the prosperity of the city [9] - The coal mine's production peaked at nearly 20 million tons annually, contributing up to 30% of the national coal output during its operational years [5] - The transformation efforts by local government in resource-depleted cities have included extensive greening projects and the establishment of a coal museum, improving the local environment [10] Group 3 - The steel industry in Liaoning, particularly through Anshan Iron and Steel Group, plays a crucial role in China's steel production, accounting for over half of the global output [24] - Anshan was a significant industrial center during the planned economy era, with a GDP of 3.278 billion RMB in 1978, ranking thirteenth nationally [15] - The transition to a market economy led to significant layoffs in state-owned enterprises, impacting the local workforce and economy [16][18] Group 4 - The narrative of industrial workers, such as Wang Yuwen, highlights the emotional and social aspects of labor in the coal and steel industries, capturing the essence of their experiences through photography [3][13] - The evolution of cities like Anshan and Fushun is closely tied to their industrial roots, with many local enterprises emerging from the legacy of state-owned industries [24][28] - The ongoing revitalization of Northeast China emphasizes the integration of technology and culture in industrial development, marking a shift from traditional industries to modern manufacturing [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Energy's subsidiary Linbei Coal Industry received an administrative penalty from the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau of Shaanxi for issues related to ventilation system inadequacies, wind power lock device failures, and inaccurate training records, resulting in a fine of 1.45 million RMB [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Administrative Penalty** - Linbei Coal Industry was fined 1.45 million RMB due to safety violations [1] - **Remedial Actions** - The company has completed the required rectifications and received approval from the Linyou County Emergency Management Bureau to resume normal production on July 25, 2025 [1] - **Impact on Operations** - The penalty is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's production and operations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share index has a clear bottom line, and the trading volume in the two markets has increased, driving the index to fluctuate upwards. The "anti-involution" policy has led to a full recovery of theme stocks. The 1.2 trillion hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo River has directly promoted the entire infrastructure industry chain such as water conservancy and building materials to strengthen. The market shows the characteristic of "blue-chip stocks setting the stage, and theme stocks performing". Futures index should be intervened after a pullback [3]. - Although the international situation is complex, the current market expectations are sufficient, and the disturbances caused by Sino-US and Iran-Israel issues are limited. The US has lifted the restrictions on H20 chips. The external influence is mainly the Fed's interest rate decision. A rate cut is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB, the return of foreign capital, and the inflow of new incremental funds, which may start as early as September. Currently, policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, the bottom line of the stock index is clear, and new technologies and new consumption are promoting the economic expectation to stabilize and recover. After the risk-free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium and long-term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. A breakthrough must be accompanied by an increase in trading volume. This week, the trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.5 trillion (MA5), and the index still has upward momentum [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to strengthen. As of July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73, up 2.02% for the week and 7.58% year-to-date; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11193.06, up 2.56% for the week and 7.47% year-to-date; the ChiNext Index closed at 2345.37, up 3.00% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index closed at 1032.84, up 2.51% for the week and 9.51% year-to-date; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.44, up 1.73% for the week and 4.76% year-to-date; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4149.04, up 2.23% for the week and 5.44% year-to-date; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6293.60, up 3.18% for the week and 9.92% year-to-date; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6701.12, up 2.27% for the week and 12.48% year-to-date [13]. - Among the global indices, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.78%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.00%, and the Biotechnology Index rose 3.68%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 first-level Shenwan industry indices rose this week. Sectors such as building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals rose significantly, while a few sectors such as banks and communications fell [16]. Liquidity - In June, the total social financing exceeded expectations, and the growth rate reached a new high, rising to 4.6% (a month-on-month increase of 2.3 pct), the highest growth rate since 2023, indicating a significant improvement in corporate liquidity [14][15]. - The capital interest rate (the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of deposit-taking financial institutions in the interbank market, DR007) remained at a low level. In May, the net MLF injection was 37.5 billion yuan. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond was around 1.65%. In June, the total social financing rebounded strongly, mainly driven by policies, and the endogenous driving force still needs to be consolidated. The new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.9% (a month-on-month increase of 0.2 pct), reaching a new high this year. Government bonds increased by 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year (contributing 58% of the social financing increment), reflecting an accelerated pace of fiscal efforts, with special bonds and special-purpose bonds advancing simultaneously. New RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, and short-term corporate loans became the main driving force. The growth rate of M2 rebounded, and M1 improved significantly. In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4 pct), mainly driven by the low-base effect (deposit diversion caused by manual interest compensation supervision in the same period in 2024) and an increase in corporate deposits [17]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume increased, and the stock index continued to fluctuate strongly. The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, and in June slightly increased to 1.6464 million. On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3600 points during intraday trading, the second-highest point since October 2024. The trading volume in the two markets (MA5) exceeded 1.5 trillion, and the index showed strong momentum, with prominent structural market conditions [26]. Index Valuation - As of July 24, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.64, with a percentile of 73.34; the latest PE of the entire market was 20.81, with a percentile of 78.73. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > CSI 300 > SSE 50. Note: The starting time of the valuation percentile is January 1, 2009 [34]. Index Industry Weights (as of June 30, 2025) - In the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non-bank finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 11.18%, and 8.31% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth-largest weighted industry [43]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banks, non-bank finance, and electronics [43]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non-bank finance [48]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - In the short term, due to the continuous fermentation of the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, risk appetite rises, but corporate profits have not significantly improved, so be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock index futures and protect the profits of long positions; the end of the grace period for the US equivalent tariff policy is approaching, and trade agreements have been reached with important trading partners, leading to a significant decline in risk aversion, so gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, and short positions can be attempted. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end comes from the rise in risk appetite, so the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation; the US may reach more trade agreements, risk aversion declines significantly, and with the approaching of the Fed's July interest rate decision, gold may face a deep adjustment [47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to June this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, the decline in real estate investment widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. The year - on - year decline in new housing construction area narrowed, while the decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume widened, indicating that real estate investment will still be restricted [5] 2. Stock Index and Gold Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the content 3. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.1 Corporate Profit - Driven by the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, commodity prices have risen continuously, which helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction [20] 3.2 Capital - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to increase. The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12.95 billion yuan [24] 4. Gold Fundamental Data 4.1 US Economic Indicators - In June, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.2 to 49.5, while the Services PMI rose to 55.2, reaching a new high this year. The number of initial jobless claims has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has slowed down, but the labor market remains strong, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is running at a high level [30][31] 4.2 Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down [45]

Report Summary - The National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable coal supply, as some coal mines have been over - producing this year [5]. - This week, the main coking coal contract had multiple consecutive limit - up boards, leading the domestic assets to rise strongly. The "Yaxia" project stimulates demand growth expectations, and the notice on coal production check strengthens supply reduction expectations. Coking coal has entered a rebound channel of price increase and inventory reduction, and it is advisable to buy on dips due to high position concentration [6]. - Recently, the coke futures market has been weaker than coking coal, mainly dragged down by the steel futures market. The profit of steel mills will affect the future price increase expectations of coke [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - Downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory, and coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [10]. - The "Yaxia" hydropower project will bring incremental infrastructure demand [7][10]. - The over - production check notice is expected to reduce coal supply [10]. - "Anti - involution" related laws are being introduced [7][10]. - During the peak electricity consumption period, the prices of related coal types have risen simultaneously [10]. - High pig iron production supports demand [10]. Negative Factors - Steel has entered the seasonal off - season, and terminal demand is limited [10]. - After the reopening of Mongolian ports, the import volume of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing [10]. Data Analysis Coking Coal Production - The domestic production growth of coking coal has slowed down, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased. This week, the starting rate of 523 sample mines was 86.9%, up 0.83% from last week, with a daily average clean coal output of 77.73 tons, an increase of 0.69 tons. The starting rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.31%, down 0.54% from last week, with a daily output of 52.145 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons. As of July 19, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 625,455 tons [11][14]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of July 25, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7844 million tons, a decrease of 606,300 tons; the clean coal inventory of 110 sample coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons, a decrease of 159,300 tons; the port inventory was 2.9234 million tons, a decrease of 291,600 tons [15]. Coke Production and Inventory - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% from the previous period, with a daily average metallurgical coke output of 646,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.97%, up 0.13% from the previous period, with a daily coke output of 471,600 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [24]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.8538 million tons, an increase of 562,700 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.47 days, an increase of 0.59 days. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 801,200 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons [18]. - As of July 25, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9951 million tons, an increase of 84,100 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.75 days, an increase of 0.12 days. The coke inventory was 6.3998 million tons, an increase of 9,900 tons, and the available days were 11.45 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [22]. Coke Demand - As of the week of July 25, China's coke consumption was 1.09 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons, and the blast furnace starting rate was 83.46%, the same as last week [26]. Coke Price Increase - As of the week of July 25, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 54 yuan/ton, widening compared to last week. After the second - round price increase on the 23rd, the third - round price increase started quickly on the 24th, and some downstream steel mills have accepted the increase. The mainstream steel mills tendered on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 25 [28]. Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke have risen in resonance [30]. Future Outlook Coking Coal - Mid - and downstream enterprises are increasing their procurement of raw coal. The prices of some key coking coal types in the producing areas have exceeded expectations. The tradable resources in the port spot market have slightly decreased, and the inquiry and trading volume have improved. The price of imported Mongolian coal has reached new highs, and the acceptance of high - price coal by downstream enterprises remains to be seen. Coking coal has strong internal momentum, and the previous bearish logic has ended. It is advisable to buy on dips [33]. Coke - The rapid increase in coking coal prices has led to a sharp increase in the production cost of coking enterprises, and the frequency of coke price increases has accelerated. After the third - round price increase was implemented today, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase next week. The coke futures market is weaker than coking coal in the short term, dragged down by the steel market [36].

Report Title - "How Long Can the Current 'Anti-Involution' Market Last? - Analysis of the Rising Logic and Future Trends of Black Series Commodities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting arranged "anti-involution" at the beginning of July, black series commodities have risen significantly. The rise has both general and special characteristics, and the price increase is mainly due to speculating on expectations in advance, which is fundamentally different from the price increase in 2016 [65]. - Whether downstream demand can cooperate after August this year is an important variable to test the "anti-involution" market. Currently, steel and hot metal production remain high, but the terminal apparent demand in the spot market is average, and there is a risk of demand falling short of expectations during the peak season [65]. - From past patterns, in August - October, which is the consumption peak season, if demand is less than expected or the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is weaker than expected, futures prices may experience a deep adjustment [65]. - The current market for some commodities has deviated from fundamental and supply - demand factors and become a situation of capital gaming. There may be a short - term peak, but if "anti-involution" policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term [65]. - The screw - ore ratio is at a low level, and the strategy of going long on the screw - ore ratio has a high win - rate and odds, which is worth attention [65] Summary According to the Directory 1. General and Special Characteristics of the Rise of Black Series Commodities General Characteristics - The seasonality of rebar shows "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". May, August, and September have a high probability of decline, while December, January, and July have a high probability of rise. The seasonal pattern in 2025 is expected to be similar to that in 2014, with a limited rebound from June - July, greater downward pressure from August - October, and a certain rebound at the end of the year [8]. - The overall market maintains a weak oscillation, and there is no obvious long - term trend. It is more appropriate to adopt a medium - term band trading strategy. In July, go long on dips; from August - November, go short on rallies; after November, wait for opportunities to go long on dips in the medium term. In terms of arbitrage, going long on the screw - ore ratio or coil - ore ratio has an advantage in win - rate and odds [10]. Special Characteristics - In June, the market was overly bearish, and prices had fully reflected the consensus expectation, creating the possibility of a rise. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st ignited the price increase, combined with subsequent central city work meetings and optimistic expectations for the Politburo meeting [14]. - Top - level attention to "anti - involution" has led various ministries to introduce relevant policies, covering industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, platform enterprises, and ten industries with over - capacity like steel, coal, chemical, building materials, and non - ferrous metals [15][17]. - Compared with the 2015 supply - side reform, the current "anti - involution" is still in the policy - introduction stage, with obvious speculation on expectations but no obvious supply contraction. Due to trade wars and the downturn in the domestic real estate market, it is difficult to see demand expansion in the long term. Whether it can reverse the bearish situation of black and chemical commodities depends on the improvement of terminal demand [19]. 2. Recent Data Interpretation of Steel Price and Basis - The rebar's spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the basis has converged from about 200 at the peak to about 86 [20][23]. - The hot - rolled coil basis has turned negative, with the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts falling from about 140 at the peak to negative values [24][29]. Production - The decline in production is mainly due to low prices and poor expectations in June. If "anti - involution" is not fully implemented and steel mills' profitability improves and the market enters the peak season, production may increase [32]. - According to the Steel Association, pig iron production has rebounded, and crude steel production has decreased slightly year - on - year. Building material production has decreased significantly, while plate production has increased slightly, and the total production has decreased slightly. Independent electric arc furnace production has decreased but is likely to rebound in the future [33][36][39]. Demand - The apparent demand for building materials is poor, while that for plates is good, and the overall demand is similar to the same period last year. Exports have increased overall, but the growth rate has slowed down, mainly driven by the rapid growth of billet exports. However, with the implementation of US tariffs, the export growth rate of billets and steel is likely to decline [42][45][47]. Profit - Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded rapidly, and iron ore prices have also risen, while the increase in finished product prices is relatively small, resulting in a decline in steel mills' gross profit. The larger increase in furnace charge varieties indicates that measures such as production restrictions and "anti - involution" have little impact on the steel production process for now [49]. Iron Ore and Iron Water - Iron ore inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore is relatively high. The 05 contract's screw - ore ratio is near historical extremes, with limited room for further decline. Due to the impact of "anti - involution" on coking coal and coke prices and the relatively stable supply of iron ore, the screw - ore ratio has a large potential for increase [55][59][62]. - Iron water production remains at a high level. The peak production this year was close to 2.5 million tons, setting a record for the same period. Although the proportion of profitable steel mills is not high, it has been rising steadily, which is an important reason for the high - level iron water production. Generally, iron water production experiences a seasonal decline from July - August, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation recently [50][52]. 3. Market Outlook - The current "anti - involution" market is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Whether it can continue depends on the improvement of downstream demand. There is a risk of a short - term peak, but if policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term. The screw - ore ratio strategy is worth attention [65]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].