5 September 2025 | 6:45PM HKT China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: September 5 (Song) In this note, we update four sets of high-frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. We publish our tracker on a bi-weekly basis. 1) Consumption and mobility Exhibit 1: 30-city daily property transaction volume in the primary market was slightly above last year's level Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Outlook** for 2025, focusing on growth, inflation, and fiscal policies. Core Economic Insights - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected to slow to **1.1% in 2025** and **1.3% in 2026**, with a significant decline from **3.2% in 2023** and **2.5% in 2024** [6][5][4] - **Inflation Trends**: PCE inflation is expected to be **3.0% in 2025** and **2.3% in 2026**, indicating persistent inflation above target levels [6][5] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: A two-speed labor market is anticipated, with restrictive immigration policies leading to slower labor force growth and a low unemployment rate of **4.4% in 2025** [6][5][4] Fiscal Policy Implications - **Tariffs Impact**: Effective tariff rates are estimated at **16%**, which are expected to remain stable, impacting consumption negatively, particularly for low-income consumers [10][20][6] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in **September 2025**, with a target range of **2.75-3.0%** by the end of 2026 [48][49] - **Fiscal Measures**: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act aims to reduce the deficit by **$508 billion** over ten years but will increase the deficit in **2026** due to frontloaded tax cuts [35][41] Consumption and Investment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: Real income growth is expected to slow, leading to a more significant decline in spending on goods compared to services due to high pass-through from tariffs [71][72] - **Business Investment**: Nonresidential fixed investment is projected to grow by **4.5% in 2025**, driven by strong demand for equipment, particularly related to AI [90][94] - **Residential Investment**: Expected to decline by **2.1% in 2025**, with affordability challenges continuing to suppress housing activity [105][102] Trade and Inventory Dynamics - **Trade Volatility**: Frontloading of imports has distorted trade data, with expectations for trade to contribute slightly to growth in the second half of 2026 [65][68] - **Container Volumes**: Shipping volumes have been volatile, with a notable decline in the share of imports from China due to tariff avoidance strategies [68][70] Additional Insights - **Immigration Policy Effects**: A significant slowdown in net immigration is expected, dropping from **3 million per year** in 2022-2024 to **300,000 this year** and **200,000 next** [26][32] - **Consumer Balance Sheets**: While delinquency rates are rising, overall consumer balance sheets remain strong, with assets significantly outweighing liabilities [85][88] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic landscape and potential challenges ahead.

New York, NY, Sept. 05, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GSR IV Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: GSRF) (“GSRF” or the “Company”) announced today that it closed its initial public offering of 23,000,000 units at a price of $10.00 per unit, for aggregate gross proceeds of $230,000,000. The offering size reflects the full exercise of the underwriter’s over-allotment option. Each unit consists of one of the Company’s Class A ordinary shares (the “Class A Ordinary Shares”) and one-seventh (1/7th) of one right (the “Rights”), ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong capital market is experiencing a significant recovery in 2025, with IPO financing reaching HKD 132.9 billion in the first eight months, marking a 50% increase compared to the total for 2024, which is the highest in nearly four years [1] - The secondary market for Hong Kong stocks is showing even stronger performance, with fundraising reaching HKD 190.5 billion, which is 3.8 times higher than the total for 2024, and the average fundraising per project is HKD 1.1 billion [1] Group 2: Underwriting Market Characteristics - The underwriting market for Hong Kong stock issuances in 2025 is characterized by a concentration of top players and a leading role of foreign investment banks, with six out of the top ten underwriters being foreign [3] - The top six underwriters have all surpassed HKD 15 billion in underwriting scale, collectively accounting for over 70% of the overall market [3] Group 3: Top Underwriters - Goldman Sachs leads the underwriting rankings with an underwriting scale of HKD 39.5 billion, holding a market share of approximately 21%, and has a strong focus on "top-tier projects" [5] - CITIC Securities ranks second with HKD 24.8 billion in underwriting scale, but its performance is heavily reliant on a single large project, which raises concerns about its ability to diversify its project coverage [6] - UBS ranks third with HKD 24.1 billion, demonstrating a balanced approach by participating in both large and small projects, which enhances its structural resilience [7] Group 4: Performance Discrepancies - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is the top underwriter for IPOs but has seen a significant drop in its performance in the secondary market, with only HKD 21.3 billion in underwriting scale, indicating a disconnect in core client cooperation [8][9] - Guotai Junan, after its merger, has the highest number of projects at 27 but ranks seventh in underwriting scale at HKD 9.7 billion, highlighting its struggle to secure large projects [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a record high, surpassing $3,600 per ounce, and have increased by 36% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10% return [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could rally to $5,000 per ounce, indicating a potential 40% increase from current levels [1][2] - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is expected to drive investors away from US government debt and towards gold [2] Group 2 - Costco has seen a surge in demand for gold bars since it began selling them in 2023, benefiting from the increased interest in precious metals [4] - The primary advantage for Costco is not the profit margins on gold itself, but the boost to its e-commerce business, as high-value items like gold bars can enhance online sales performance [4]

Legal & Regulatory - Credit Agricole's investment banking arm is expected to settle a criminal case regarding alleged tax evasion on dividend payments [1] Source - The information was initially reported by France Info [1]

Cantor Fitzgerald is planning to hire dozens of bankers in the Middle East in the coming years after the Wall Street firm appointed a veteran EFG Hermes rainmaker to lead its business in the region https://t.co/kYrAs1XC3p ...

Core Insights - American Trust Investment Services, Inc. (ATIS) acted as the exclusive placement agent for Nova LifeStyle, Inc. in a follow-on public offering, raising gross proceeds of $9 million through the sale of 9,836,054 shares and 19,672,108 warrants priced at $0.915 each [1][2] Group 1: Transaction Details - The offering included each share of common stock issued with two five-year warrants, exercisable at $1.098, which is 120% of the public offering price [2] - The net proceeds from the offering will be utilized for working capital, marketing initiatives, repayment of certain short-term debt, and general corporate purposes [3] Group 2: Company Background - Nova LifeStyle is a U.S.-based designer and marketer of modern lifestyle furniture, operating under brands such as Nova Brands and Diamond Sofa [3] - ATIS is recognized for its strategic approach in providing customized capital markets solutions to high-growth companies, with a focus on small and mid-cap markets [4][5]

Group 1 - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) aims to provide transparency and analytics in capital markets instruments and trades, focusing on Closed-End Funds (CEFs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Special Situations [1] - BTA has over 20 years of investment experience and seeks to deliver high annualized returns with a low volatility profile [1]

Group 1 - Lazard, Inc. is characterized as a 'good co./bad co.' type stock, with over 60% of its revenue coming from a top-notch independent M&A advisory firm and less than 40% from a traditional asset management business that is currently facing challenges [1] - The company has unique cross-border capabilities in its M&A advisory services, which distinguishes it from competitors [1]