The market expects Carnival (CCL) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended May 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the st ...

Key Takeaways CCL's adjusted cruise costs per ALBD fell 1.9%, supporting 38% EBITDA growth in Q1 fiscal 2025. Margin gains were driven by cost discipline, favorable expense timing, and 7.3% net yield growth. CCL projects FY25 EBITDA of $6.7B, aided by strong bookings and limited fleet expansion.Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) delivered a strong start to fiscal 2025, highlighting a key theme that investors are increasingly appreciating—disciplined cost control. While robust revenue growth, record bookings ...

Group 1 - Carnival Corporation is expected to announce Q2 earnings on June 24, with an anticipated earnings per share of $0.24, up from $0.11 in the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus revenue estimate for the quarter is $6.2 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 7.3% compared to the previous year, driven by robust demand for leisure cruising post-Covid-19 [2] - The company's revenue growth is supported by increased capacity, heightened onboard revenues, and recent price hikes, alongside a focus on fleet optimization leading to strong operational performance [2] Group 2 - Carnival's current market capitalization is $31 billion, with revenue over the last twelve months reported at $25 billion, and operational profits of $3.8 billion, resulting in a net income of $2.1 billion [3] - Historical data indicates that Carnival has had 19 earnings data points over the past five years, with positive one-day returns occurring approximately 53% of the time, although this percentage drops to 50% when considering the last three years [5] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 5.4%, while the median of the negative returns is -2.5% [5]

Market Overview - The market has increased by only 3% so far this year, recovering from earlier declines, indicating a potentially favorable buying opportunity for investors [1] Realty Income - Realty Income is a major real estate investment trust (REIT) that pays monthly dividends and has a strong history of increasing payouts, having distributed dividends for 660 consecutive months [3][5] - The REIT owns 15,600 properties, with 80% leased to retailers, including essential businesses like Walmart and Lowe's, providing stability even in tough economic conditions [4] - The current dividend yield is 5.5%, and despite a year-to-date increase, the stock price has declined over the past three years due to higher interest rates, making it an attractive buy [5] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre operates in 18 Latin American countries and has reported significant growth, with a 40% increase in gross merchandise volume year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis [6][7] - The company has seen a 25% increase in unique active buyers and a 72% increase in total payments volume year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its services [9] - Total company sales rose by 64% in the first quarter, with an operating income of $763 million at a 12.9% margin, showcasing its profitability [9][10] Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros has rapidly expanded its coffee shop chain, recently opening its 1,000th store and aiming to double its footprint in the next five years [11] - Same-store sales increased by 4.7% year-over-year, contributing to a 29% revenue growth, with net income rising by 39% in the first quarter [12] - The stock is currently trading at a high valuation of 88 times next year's expected earnings, reflecting strong growth potential [13] Carnival - Carnival is recovering from pandemic-related challenges, with a 7.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $5.8 billion in its fiscal 2025 first quarter [16] - The company is experiencing record-high demand for cruises, with bookings for fiscal 2026 at unprecedented levels and strong revenue from preboarding sales [16][17] - Carnival's stock is trading at a low price-to-sales ratio of 1.2, and as the company continues to pay down its debt, the stock is expected to rise [18] On Holding - On Holding is gaining traction in the activewear and athletic footwear market, with a 43% year-over-year sales increase in the first quarter [19][20] - The company has a gross margin of 59.9%, indicating strong profitability, and is expanding into new markets [20] - Despite current market concerns, On Holding's long-term outlook remains strong, making it a favorable investment opportunity [22]

Group 1 - The year 2025 has been challenging for equities, particularly impacting consumer discretionary stocks which have seen a year-to-date pullback [1] - Certain stocks within the consumer discretionary sector are more adversely affected than others, indicating a disparity in performance [1] - Norwegian company NCLH is highlighted as a specific example of a stock that may present investment opportunities in the current market environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Carnival and Disney are both strong investment options, with recent stock momentum suggesting potential for continued growth [1] Group 1: Carnival - Carnival is the world's largest cruise line operator, benefiting from a resurgence in the cruise industry, with strong demand leading to record operating results [3] - In Q1, Carnival reported revenue of $5.8 billion, a 7.5% year-over-year increase, driven by higher capacity and pricing, and ended the quarter with $7.3 billion in customer deposits, surpassing last year's record of $7 billion [4] - The company achieved adjusted EPS of $0.13, reversing a loss from the previous year, indicating improved financial consistency, with expectations for continued growth from new initiatives like Celebration Key and new ship deliveries [5] - Carnival is guiding for full-year EPS of $1.83, representing a 29% increase from 2024, while reducing total debt by $4 billion to $27 billion, which supports a higher valuation as it trades at a forward P/E of 13, significantly lower than Disney's 20 [6] - The combination of value and growth potential makes Carnival an attractive long-term investment [7] Group 2: Disney - Disney has faced challenges in recent years, with stock down 7% over the past five years, but recent trends suggest a potential turnaround [8][9] - In fiscal Q2, Disney reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase and a 20% surge in adjusted EPS, driven by strong performance in streaming, with Disney+ adding 1.4 million customers [10] - Growth in Hulu and ESPN digital properties, along with strategic bundling efforts, are contributing to positive momentum, with a target EPS of $5.75 for fiscal 2025, a 16% increase from the previous year [11] - Disney's diversified profile and globally recognized brand provide a strong foundation for future growth, particularly in streaming media [12] Conclusion - While both Carnival and Disney present compelling investment opportunities, Carnival is viewed as having greater upside potential due to its undervalued growth story [13]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is shifting towards high-impact marketing strategies to enhance bookings due to limited capacity growth, with no new ship deliveries in 2026 and only three scheduled over the next four years [1][8] Marketing Strategies - In Q1 fiscal 2025, Carnival executed extensive marketing campaigns during Wave season, leveraging cultural events like the Oscars and Super Bowl, featuring brand ambassadors and generating over 5 billion media impressions [2] - Costa Cruises and AIDA Cruises also engaged in promotional activities, with Costa enhancing its visibility through a live performance during the Sanremo Music Festival and AIDA revamping onboard experiences [2] Financial Performance - Carnival reported historically high pricing across all core programs, with over 80% of 2025 capacity booked by the end of Q1 fiscal 2025, and record booking volumes for 2026 [3][8] - The strong marketing execution contributed to a 7.3% year-over-year increase in net yields during the fiscal first quarter [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) is focusing on customer loyalty through app adoption and personalization, achieving record demand for new ships and the best Wave season in company history [5] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is adopting a targeted approach with experiential upgrades and significant enhancements to its offerings, aiming for brand differentiation and premium pricing [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - CCL shares have increased by 26.7% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 12.7% [7] - CCL trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.24X, below the industry average of 18.57X [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 30.3% and 12.8%, respectively [11] - Current EPS estimates for fiscal 2025 are 1.85, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 30.28% [12]

Core Concept - Cunard has partnered with Abbey Road Studios to create an exclusive Listening Lounge experience on board the Queen Elizabeth, featuring curated playlists of iconic recordings and film scores [1][2][4]. Group 1: Partnership and Experience - The Listening Lounge experience will debut on Queen Elizabeth in Autumn 2025, hosted in the Commodore Club, and will last 60 minutes [1]. - The playlists will include music from celebrated artists such as Ed Sheeran, Fela Kuti, and The Beatles, highlighting Abbey Road's rich recording heritage [2]. - Guests will enjoy the experience on select sea days, starting during Queen Elizabeth's maiden Caribbean season from Miami in October 2025, with a curated menu of cocktails available [5]. Group 2: Musical Heritage and Events - The playlists will feature famous film scores from iconic movies, showcasing Abbey Road's Studio One, which has been a home for film music for over 45 years [4]. - A special Event Voyage in partnership with Abbey Road is scheduled to depart Southampton for New York on October 23, 2026, celebrating the studio's musical heritage [6]. - The week-long crossing will include live performances, a photography exhibition, and Q&As with Abbey Road's award-winning engineers [7]. Group 3: Company Background - Cunard is a luxury British cruise line with a history dating back to 1840, celebrating 185 years of operation in 2025 [10]. - The company currently operates four ships: Queen Mary 2, Queen Elizabeth, Queen Victoria, and the newly launched Queen Anne [11]. - Cunard is known for its fine dining, entertainment, and outstanding service, with a focus on creating unforgettable experiences for guests [10].

Carnival (CCL 0.76%) went from a full stop to full speed ahead, and the result was, as you might expect, a dramatic improvement in its business performance. But what happens now that the cruise line is at the top of its game?Here's what's happened and why 2026 could be a much less impressive year for Carnival.What does Carnival do?Carnival operates nine branded cruise lines, including its namesake brand. It is one of the largest cruise ship owners and operators on the planet. Cruise lines have two main sour ...

Core Insights - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) shares have increased by 17.8% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry's 10.1% rise and the S&P 500's growth of 6.3% [1][2] Group 1: Growth Drivers - Strong demand for cruise vacations is evident, with record-breaking bookings during the 2025 WAVE season, indicating consumer willingness to spend on leisure travel [7] - Fleet expansion is a significant catalyst, with new ships like Icon of the Seas and Utopia enhancing guest satisfaction and premium pricing [9] - Operational efficiency has improved margins, with a reported 35% EBITDA margin in Q1 2025, reflecting a 360-basis-point improvement year over year [10] Group 2: Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 have been revised upward from $14.95 to $15.36 over the past 60 days, indicating strengthened analyst confidence [12] - RCL's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is 16.33X, below the industry average of 18.16X, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity [20] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Investments in digital innovation and exclusive private destinations are enhancing competitive advantages, with initiatives like the Royal Beach Club aimed at offering differentiated experiences [11] - Enhanced loyalty programs and app-based engagement are increasing guest retention and pre-cruise spending [11] Group 4: Challenges - Despite strong demand, RCL faces macroeconomic uncertainties and rising costs, which could impact consumer spending behavior [17] - Transitional pressures from fleet expansion and new ship rollouts may temporarily affect yield performance [19]