Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant transformation, focusing on long-term growth and cultural change, with a strong emphasis on building a consumer-centric beauty brand [2][5] - Despite positive retail sales growth in mainland China at 13% and a slight increase in the Americas by 1%, the company's stock price fell nearly 20% due to lower-than-expected earnings forecasts [1][3] - The company has adjusted its full-year net sales forecast to a range of 1% to 3%, up from a previous outlook of flat to 3% [3] Geographical Performance - Mainland China reported a second consecutive quarter of double-digit retail sales growth at 13% [1] - The Americas saw a modest increase in retail sales of 1% [1] - In Europe, consumer sentiment remains subdued, particularly in France and Germany, while Spain and Italy showed strong performance [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing the "Beauty Reimagined" strategy and a Profit Recovery and Growth Plan to improve its market position [4][5] - The CEO highlighted the importance of diversifying distribution channels, including partnerships with Amazon and TikTok, and entering Sephora U.S. with the MAC brand [7][8] Market Challenges - The company anticipates tariff-related headwinds to impact profitability by approximately $100 million in fiscal 2026, primarily in the second half [2] - There has been a slowdown in consumer consumption in Latin America recently, attributed partly to tariffs [5] Department Store Dynamics - Department stores remain a crucial channel for luxury brands, accounting for around 30% of retail, although this varies by brand [6][8] - The company is actively supporting department stores like Saks during their transition, which owes Lauder $16 million [6][7]

Key Takeaways The Dow Easily Outpaced Tech-Heavy Indexes TodayAlphabet Posted Huge Q4 Numbers, ELF Crushes EstimatesServices PMI Gained in JanuaryWednesday, February 4th, 2026Stock market rotation out of software and tech in general was on clear display today, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq-exposed S&P 500 hitting the closing bell lower by -1.51% and -0.51%, respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.67% on the day. The Dow is up +0.9% over the past five trading days; the other three indexes ar ...

Market Overview - US stock futures declined as investors reacted to a two-day tech sell-off, with S&P 500 futures down approximately 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.9% [1] - The market is experiencing a significant tech wipeout, with concerns about AI disruption affecting software stocks [2] Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet announced a substantial increase in AI investment, projecting capital expenditures of up to $185 billion, which negatively impacted its stock [3] - Amazon's quarterly report is anticipated, with expectations of a 21% increase in sales from its AWS cloud unit [3] - Qualcomm reported a 5% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.3 billion and earnings per share of $2.78, but its outlook for the second quarter is weaker due to a memory chip shortage [28][29] - Nio expects to report its first-ever profit in Q4, projecting an adjusted profit from operations between 200 million yuan (approximately $29 million) and 700 million yuan (approximately $100 million) [6][7] Stock Movements - Estée Lauder shares fell 10% despite beating earnings estimates due to tariff concerns [8] - Snap's stock rose 6% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.71 billion, exceeding Wall Street estimates [13] - E.l.f. Beauty's stock increased by as much as 8% after raising its full-year sales outlook to between $1.6 billion and $1.61 billion [16][17] - Baidu's US-listed shares rose 5% following the announcement of a dividend and a $5 billion stock buyback program [10] Commodities and Cryptocurrencies - Silver prices plunged by as much as 17%, erasing previous gains, as market sentiment turned negative [4][24] - Bitcoin fell below $70,000 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out a government bailout for cryptocurrencies [5][12] Industry Trends - Broadcom's stock rose 5% following Alphabet's announcement of increased capital expenditures, which is expected to benefit companies involved in AI infrastructure [21][22] - The overall sentiment in the market appears to be dampened, affecting various asset classes including precious metals and equities [25]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed stability after a two-day tech sell-off, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3% as investors awaited Amazon's earnings and assessed Alphabet's AI spending plans [1][3] - The tech sector experienced a significant decline, with nearly $1 trillion wiped off the value of software stocks tracked in an iShares ETF over the past week [2][7] Company Earnings and Forecasts - Alphabet announced a substantial increase in AI investment, projecting up to $185 billion, which led to a decline in its shares [3] - Amazon's AWS cloud unit is expected to report a 21% increase in sales in its upcoming quarterly report [3] - Snap reported a strong fourth quarter with revenue of $1.71 billion, exceeding Wall Street estimates of $1.7 billion, and earnings per share of $0.03 [12][16] - E.l.f. Beauty raised its full-year 2026 sales outlook to between $1.6 billion and $1.61 billion, up from a previous range of $1.55 billion to $1.57 billion, and reported a 38% increase in net sales to $489.5 million [14][16] - Qualcomm's stock fell around 11% after reporting a revenue increase of 5% year over year to $12.3 billion, but provided a dim outlook for the second quarter due to a memory chip shortage [26][28] Market Sentiment and Trends - The recent tech sell-off was driven by concerns over AI potentially disrupting existing business models, rather than fears of a bubble [8][9] - Silver prices plunged by as much as 17%, erasing previous gains, as market sentiment turned negative across various asset classes [4][22] - Bitcoin fell significantly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out a government bailout for the cryptocurrency, with prices nearing the critical $70,000 level [5][11] Capital Expenditure and Partnerships - Alphabet's forecast for capital expenditures in 2026 reached $180 billion, positively impacting partners like Broadcom, which saw its stock rise by 5% [20][21] - Oracle also increased its capital expenditure forecast to around $50 billion, indicating a broader trend among tech companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure [21]

分组1 - e.l.f. Beauty reported quarterly earnings of $1.24 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.73 per share, and showing an increase from $0.74 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +69.63% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $489.51 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.78%, and up from $355.32 million year-over-year [2] - e.l.f. Beauty has outperformed the S&P 500, with shares increasing about 11.5% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1.1% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.59 on revenues of $410.78 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.88 on revenues of $1.57 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Cosmetics industry is currently in the top 40% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook for stocks in this sector [8] - e.l.f. Beauty's Zacks Rank is currently 3 (Hold), indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6]

分组1: Critical Minerals and U.S.-China Relations - The Trump administration is initiating a new partnership to stabilize prices for critical rare earth minerals, aiming to create a trading block with allied nations [4][5] - Vice President JD Vance announced adjustable tariffs on imported rare earth minerals to establish a price floor, encouraging investment in U.S. mining [5][6] - China currently controls approximately 90% of rare earth processing capacity, posing a significant challenge to U.S. efforts to build its own supply chain [10][11] 分组2: Oil Industry Insights - Philip 66 reported strong earnings, driven by high demand and favorable Venezuelan crude supply dynamics, achieving record performance in refining and midstream operations [27][28] - The company operates at 99% refining utilization, benefiting from a widening heavy crude differential, which enhances margins [31] - The chemical business is currently facing a cyclical trough but remains profitable due to low-cost operations [32][33] 分组3: Market Trends and Stock Performance - Snap reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and announced a $500 million stock repurchase program, indicating strong financial health [44] - Elfy's stock surged after exceeding third-quarter expectations and raising full-year earnings guidance, reflecting confidence in market share growth [46] - ARM Holdings faced pressure despite beating third-quarter earnings expectations, as its fourth-quarter outlook did not meet Wall Street's expectations [47]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3, the company achieved a net sales growth of 38% year-over-year and an adjusted EBITDA growth of 79% [3][29] - The Q3 net sales growth was supported by the acquisition of Rhode, which contributed approximately $128 million, or about 36 percentage points, to the growth [29] - Adjusted net income for Q3 was $74 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, compared to $43 million, or $0.74 per diluted share a year ago [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e.l.f. Cosmetics brand grew 8% in the U.S., outperforming the category by two times [3][4] - e.l.f. Skin consumption grew 16% in the U.S., also outperforming the category by two times [4] - Naturium, acquired two years ago, continues to drive strong growth, while Rhode achieved the No. 1 brand ranking in Sephora North America [4][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company increased its market share by 130 basis points, the largest share gain among over 700 cosmetics brands tracked by Nielsen [4] - U.S. net sales grew 36% year-over-year, while international net sales grew 44% in Q3 [30] - International sales accounted for approximately 20% of net sales, compared to legacy peers with over 70% of their sales outside the U.S. [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to democratize access to beauty with a value proposition that offers products at accessible price points, with 75% of its portfolio priced at $10 or less [6][7] - The company plans to expand its retail presence, including launching Naturium in Walmart and increasing space within Ulta Beauty [25][28] - The marketing strategy includes disruptive campaigns and collaborations, such as the partnership with Liquid Death and H&M [12][15][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to continue gaining market share and delivering growth, despite some softness in the UK and Germany [29][30] - The company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook for net sales growth to approximately 22%-23% year-over-year, up from 18%-20% previously, primarily driven by Rhode's outperformance [33][34] - Management noted that global consumption growth is expected to be around 6%, with some headwinds from pipeline dynamics [35][69] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $197 million in cash, compared to $74 million a year ago, and repurchased approximately $50 million of its outstanding common stock [32] - The company plans to debut a commercial during the Super Bowl, aiming for a campaign reach of nearly 300 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack your approach to spending and guidance? - Management indicated that the adjusted EBITDA margin for the second half is expected to be around 19%, up from 17% previously, due to timing shifts in costs and increased marketing spend [41][42] Question: What is the path forward for Rhode's expansion? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining quality in Rhode's launches and noted significant pent-up demand for the brand [43][44] Question: What are the plans for driving growth in the core e.l.f. brand? - Management highlighted the strategy of leveraging existing strengths and expanding shelf space, particularly in international markets [46][47] Question: Can you provide an update on the e.l.f. Cosmetics business in the U.S.? - Management reported that the e.l.f. brand is healthy, with a successful execution of a recent price increase and strong innovation pipeline for the spring [52][54] Question: What drove the decision to return to a Super Bowl ad this year? - Management explained that the marketing spend remains targeted at 24%-26% for the year, with a focus on timing shifts and additional campaigns planned for Q4 [80][81] Question: Can you clarify the full-year guidance and the implications for e.l.f. brand growth? - Management noted that the raised guidance reflects a lower expected growth for the e.l.f. brand due to a decrease in the global consumption rate [84][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2026, net sales grew by 38% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 79% [2][23] - The company achieved its 28th consecutive quarter of net sales growth, a rare feat among public consumer companies [2] - Q3 gross margin was 71%, down approximately 30 basis points year-over-year but up 200 basis points sequentially from Q2 [24][25] - Adjusted net income was $74 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, compared to $43 million, or $0.74 per diluted share a year ago [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - e.l.f. Cosmetics brand grew 8% in the U.S., outperforming the category by two times [2] - e.l.f. Skin consumption grew 16% in the U.S., also outperforming the category by two times [3] - The acquisition of Rhode contributed approximately $128 million to Q3 net sales growth, accounting for about 36 percentage points [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. net sales grew 36% year-over-year, while international net sales grew 44% [24] - The company increased its market share by 130 basis points, the largest share gain among over 700 cosmetics brands tracked by Nielsen [3] - International sales accounted for approximately 20% of Rhode's direct-to-consumer sales, with 74% of the brand's social followers from outside the U.S. [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to democratize access to beauty with accessible price points, with 75% of its product portfolio priced at $10 or less [4][5] - e.l.f. plans to expand its retail presence, including launching Naturium in Walmart and increasing space in Ulta Beauty [22][20] - The company is focused on innovation, with a community-led approach to product development and a strong marketing strategy [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to continue gaining market share and delivering growth, despite some softness in the UK and Germany [23][27] - The company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook for net sales growth to approximately 22%-23%, up from 18%-20% previously [27] - Management noted that global consumption growth is expected to be around 6%, with some headwinds from pipeline cycling [28][80] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $50 million of its outstanding common stock during the quarter [26] - e.l.f. plans to debut a commercial during the Super Bowl, aiming for a campaign reach of nearly 300 million [17][74] - The company has seen strong consumer engagement and brand loyalty, with innovative products achieving significant market traction [14][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on your approach to spending and guidance? - Management explained that the adjusted EBITDA margin for the second half is expected to be around 19%, with some costs shifting from Q3 to Q4 due to increased marketing spend [35][36] Question: What is the strategy for expanding Rhode? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining quality in Rhode's launches and highlighted the strong demand for the brand [37][38] Question: What are the plans for driving growth in the core e.l.f. brand? - Management stated that the strategy involves leveraging existing strengths and expanding shelf space, particularly in international markets [39][40] Question: How has the price increase affected consumer behavior? - Management reported that a 15% price increase resulted in only single-digit unit declines, indicating strong consumer acceptance [46] Question: What are the expectations for U.S. consumption in Q4? - Management indicated that U.S. consumption is expected to be above the global average, driven by strong brand performance [84]

Core Viewpoint - E.l.f. Beauty's shares increased after the company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook due to ongoing consumer demand for affordable cosmetics [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - E.l.f. Beauty now expects full-year sales to be between $1.6 billion and $1.612 billion, an increase from the previous forecast of $1.55 billion to $1.57 billion [1] - The company anticipates adjusted earnings per share to range from $3.05 to $3.10, up from the earlier estimate of $2.80 to $2.85 per share [1]

Core Insights - Elf Beauty raised its annual sales and profit forecasts after exceeding Wall Street estimates for third-quarter results [1] - The strong demand for affordable cosmetics persisted despite rising economic and tariff uncertainties [1] - Following the announcement, shares of Elf Beauty increased by approximately 12% after market close [1] Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street expectations [1] - The updated forecasts indicate a positive outlook for both sales and profits for the upcoming year [1] Market Reaction - The stock price experienced a significant increase of about 12% after the earnings announcement [1]