鲍威尔终于服软了，美联储9月份降息大局已定，全球资产的价格即将迎来重塑，不管是对美债黄金外汇，还是对中国的楼市股市存款，都将影响巨大。 我们即将进入一个全球低利率时代，而不仅仅只是中国的低利率，这将影响我们每一个人的钱袋子。 就在8月23日全球央行行长年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔的立场发生了重大转变，鲍威尔发表讲话，称尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场的风险正在上升，美联 储可能在9月份降息。 受此消息影响，美股3大指数集体大涨，黄金大涨，全球资本市场仿佛被打了一剂兴奋剂。 可鲍威尔明明说的是可能，市场为啥会这么兴奋呢？ 我们得对比他原来是怎么说的。 为了降低美债的利息支出，缓解美国财政压力，特朗普这半年，几乎天天都在骂鲍威尔，还威胁要去美联储查账，说美联储大楼在翻新时存在腐败问题。 特朗普这样天天搞事情，你说鲍威尔一点都不害怕，我是不信的。 其二，鲍威尔态度松动的根源，是因为美国的就业数据突然暴雷，美国劳工部8月初公布的非农数据，惊掉了全世界人的下巴。 7月份非农就业只增加了7.3万人，远低于预期的11万，更要命的是，5月份的非农数据，从原本的14.4万下修到了1.9万人，6月份从14.7万下修到了1.4万人。 这哪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore's short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.32%, and the position increased by 1,051 lots to 452,625 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined, and some domestic ore prices remained stable. Basis and spreads had various changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Activity at the SimFer mine site is suspended due to a fatal incident. Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35%, with a position decrease of 46,508 lots. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,361 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.86%, with a position decrease of 49,335 lots. Spot prices mostly declined, and basis and spreads also changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of August 21, rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons. In July, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year - on - year [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5,642 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices and various spreads had different changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 22, silicon 72 and 75 prices in different regions were reported, and silicon manganese 6517 prices decreased. From January to July, the average monthly import of South African manganese ore increased by 6.71% year - on - year [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,162 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Coke J2601 closed at 1,678.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan. Spot prices and basis had various changes [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price decreased by 0.4% daily and 1.2% weekly. The 2511 contract's trading volume increased by 49.2% daily and 70% weekly. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21].

新华社华盛顿8月22日电 综述｜鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新闻网采访时表示，美国通胀仍然过高，且过去一年呈 上升态势。她说，只要通胀仍然构成威胁，就会对降息继续持犹豫态度。 美国总统特朗普此前多次施压鲍威尔降 ...

来源：滚动播报 但鲍威尔同时强调，货币政策没有预设路径，联邦公开市场委员会成员将完全基于对数据的评估，以及 这些数据对经济前景和风险平衡的影响来作出决策。这意味着8月非农就业和消费者价格指数数据将成 为9月货币政策的关键变量。 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新 ...

新华社华盛顿8月22日电（新华社记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍 尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降 息。 鲍威尔当天表示，短期内美国通胀风险偏向上行，而美国就业下行风险正在上升，基于经济前景和风险 平衡的变化，美联储货币政策立场可能需要调整。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，鲍威尔发表讲话后，市场对美联储9月份降息预期升至近 90%。不少机构也将鲍威尔的讲话解读为鸽派信号。 大山资本公司董事长托马斯·海斯认为，鲍威尔的表态比预期更为鸽派，"他为9月份的行动奠定了基 础"。 但鲍威尔同时强调，货币政策没有预设路径，联邦公开市场委员会成员将完全基于对数据的评估，以及 这些数据对经济前景和风险平衡的影响来作出决策。这意味着8月非农就业和消费者价格指数数据将成 为9月货币政策的关键变量。 美国总统特朗普此前多次施压鲍威尔降息。他22日接受媒体采访回应鲍威尔讲话时称，不存在通胀风 险，美联储应该立即降息，"现在发出降息信号已经太晚"。他多次表达对美联储货币政策不满，要求美 联储官员辞职。 鲍威尔发表讲话后，纽约股市三大股指22日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium serves as a significant platform for discussing global economic issues, influencing market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate adjustments and inflation outlooks [1][6][19]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Insights - The symposium is hosted annually by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and includes central bank governors, finance ministers, and academic and financial professionals [1][6]. - In the 2022 meeting, Fed Chair Powell adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for aggressive rate hikes to combat high inflation, which subsequently led to a faster pace of U.S. interest rate increases [1][6]. - The 2023 meeting saw Powell indicating a more cautious approach, stating that the Fed would proceed carefully, which resulted in a halt to further rate increases [1][6][7]. Group 2: Powell's 2025 Speech Highlights - In his 2025 speech, Powell expressed a dovish outlook, suggesting that changes in economic prospects and risk balances may necessitate adjustments in the Fed's policy stance [2][8]. - He noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be relatively short-lived, indicating a potential for inflationary pressures to stabilize [2][10]. - Powell highlighted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is characterized by a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, increasing the risk of layoffs and rising unemployment [2][11]. Group 3: FOMC Long-Term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy - The FOMC released a new statement modifying its long-term goals, removing references to the "zero lower bound" and emphasizing the use of all policy tools to achieve dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability [3][12]. - The statement shifted from a flexible average inflation targeting strategy back to a simpler inflation targeting approach, indicating a return to traditional inflation management [3][12][13]. - The FOMC's focus has now shifted to promoting "maximum employment," allowing for more flexibility in policy adjustments without being constrained by perceived employment gaps [3][12][13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The dovish tone from Powell increased the probability of a September rate cut, with market expectations reflecting an 84% chance of a rate reduction following the Jackson Hole meeting [5][19]. - Following the meeting, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.89%, the S&P 500 by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq by 1.88%, indicating positive market sentiment towards potential rate cuts [5][19]. - Key economic indicators, such as employment data and inflation expectations, remain critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions, with the Fed closely monitoring these metrics [4][14][20].

Friday, August 22, 2025A half hour after the opening bell for the final trading day of the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning, in one of his most anticipated Jackson Hole speeches in years. Investors will be listening closely to hear if the deliberate and methodical Powell will be leaning toward a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut.The Fed has kept rates steady year-to-date at 4.25-4.50%. In historical terms, we’re neither high nor low — ...

美联储鲍威尔将于周五(北京时间晚上10点)在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行年会上发表讲话。这 一夏季金融市场"年度大戏"被视为美联储货币政策未来走向的关键时刻。 支持降息的理由包括消费者物价因关税影响温和上升，就业市场出现降温迹象。但另一面，7月批发价 格录得三年来最大涨幅，就业仍处历史低位，美联储内部对通胀的担忧升温。最新公布的7月会议纪要 显示，多数官员预计通胀将短期回升，并最终传导至消费者。 市场人士认为，鲍威尔的措辞可能打破夏季以来的股市涨势。Ritholtz财富管理公司首席策略师Callie Cox指出："以目前的通胀和就业数据，鲍威尔很难确认市场几乎笃定的9月降息。"Neuberger Berman首 席投资官Shannon Saccocia则强调："去年正是在杰克逊霍尔，鲍威尔为政策行动定下基调，今年市场同 样寄予厚望。" 回顾历史，2022年鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的鹰派表态曾终结美股熊市反弹。分析师普遍认为，若鲍威尔此 次释放更多谨慎信号，美股夏季的低波动上涨行情或将戛然而止。 市场高度期待鲍威尔确认9月降息的前景。根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员周四押注美联储9月16-17日 会议上降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to contract, with A-shares surging and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 leading the gains. The market is waiting for the further development of the relationships among the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, as well as the guidance from Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [2][5]. - The prices of precious metals rebounded due to increased market uncertainty. Copper prices are waiting for a driving force. Aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a limited range. Alumina prices face increasing pressure. Zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering. Lead prices are weakly oscillating. Tin prices are in a tangled state. Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating widely. Nickel prices are oscillating within a range. Crude oil prices are oscillating. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][19][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals. Most people believe that inflation risks are higher than employment risks, with differences focusing on the impact of tariffs and interest rate levels. Some are worried about the instability of long - term inflation expectations and the fragility of the US Treasury market, and also concerned about the potential risks of stablecoins. Trump pressured to remove "dissidents" from the Fed, and the independence of the Fed is under threat. The market risk appetite continues to decline, with the US dollar index oscillating weakly, the 10Y US Treasury yield slightly declining, and US stocks continuing to fall. Gold, copper, and oil all rebounded. Attention is paid to the US August PMI tonight [2]. - Domestic: Leaders conducted intensive research and made speeches. A - shares rebounded after Wednesday's oscillation, with the trading volume shrinking to 2.45 trillion yuan. The market risk appetite recovered, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by more than 3%, and sectors such as GPU and liquor led the gains. The bond market fell again as the stock market strengthened. The short - term risk appetite may be approaching the peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices both closed higher. Trump's call for Fed Governor Cook to resign increased market uncertainty, the US dollar index turned down, and precious metal prices rebounded. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The meeting between the leaders of the US, Ukraine, and Russia cooled down. Investor risk aversion increased. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated narrowly, and LME copper sought support at the 9700 level. The macro situation shows that the Fed is facing a dilemma between rising inflation and a deteriorating employment market. The market is highly concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday. The CME observation tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 85%. In terms of industry, First Quantum has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain an oscillating state waiting for a driving force [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,577/ton, up 0.37%. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The short - term attitude of the Fed needs to be further observed. Fundamentally, aluminum prices have slightly declined in the past two days. At the transition between the off - season and peak season, downstream restocking at low prices has slightly improved, and the spot discount has converged. Technically, the downward adjustment range of aluminum prices is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and the warehouse receipt inventory continues to accumulate, so the price pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the changes in production capacity [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and slightly shifted upwards at night, and LME zinc closed higher. In July, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, while the import of refined zinc met expectations. Currently, raw materials are abundant. As zinc prices fall to near the previous low, downstream price fixing at low points increases. Short - term zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering, waiting for the guidance from Powell's speech on Friday [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly both during the day and at night, and LME lead closed higher. Globally, the high visible inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. Domestically, the improvement in consumption falls short of expectations, and the production side is relatively stable. Lead prices lack the driving force to rise but also have no continuous downward momentum due to cost support. The fundamentals maintain a state of weak supply and demand [13][14]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and moved horizontally at night, and LME tin oscillated. In July, Myanmar's tin mines resumed production, but China's imports from Myanmar decreased instead. Indonesia's exports of refined tin decreased month - on - month, and overseas supplies remained tight. In the short term, the low LME inventory is difficult to reverse. Near Powell's speech, the expectation of a rate cut in September is volatile, and tin prices are in a tangled state [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated weakly. Fundamentally, the supply side is showing a marginal loosening trend, while the demand side has limited consumption growth. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. The domestic anti - involution sentiment has cooled down. Short - term futures prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating state [16][17]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate lithium was weakly running, and the spot price was stable. An upstream salt factory in Jiangxi announced the resumption of production, but the actual output in August is expected to be limited. The core factor driving the wide - range price fluctuations may be the market's lack of confidence in the supply contraction promoted by policies. Short - term lithium prices may fluctuate widely due to emotional disturbances [19]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Under the expectation of abundant nickel ore supply, the price is still strong, but nickel iron plants are under cost pressure. The refined nickel market is warming up. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, and attention should be paid to the rebound at low levels [20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil oscillated and strengthened. The market is waiting for the progress of the tripartite peace talks, and the market disturbances are relatively limited. The significant inventory reduction by the EIA has temporarily boosted market sentiment. However, the bearish fundamentals and the expectation of cooling geopolitical risks remain unchanged, and oil prices maintain an oscillating and wait - and - see state [21]. 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 01 contract fell, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. The second - day inspection results showed that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska was good, while that in Indiana was slightly lower than the same period last year. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and the yield per unit may be lowered. US soybean growers hope to reach a trade agreement with China. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate [22][23][24]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 01 contract fell. The latest data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, which supports the price and limits the decline. The US's exemption obligation for small refineries may be introduced earlier than expected, and US soybean oil oscillated and fell. Short - term palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [25][26].

当地时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指跌 0.67%，标普 500 指数跌 0.24%，道指涨0.04%。 大型科技股普跌，英特尔领跌约 7%，谷歌、特斯拉、苹果、亚马逊跌超 1%，微软、英伟达、Meta、 AMD 小幅下跌。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 0.33%，热门中概股涨跌分化，万国数据涨 8%，老虎证券涨超 3%，搜狐、 网易、金山云涨超 1%，小鹏、理想跌超 1%，百度跌超2%，极氪、小马智行跌超 4%。 01 7月会议上仅两位官员支持降息 同日公布的美联储 7 月会议纪要显示，在上月决定维持基准利率不变的会议上，仅有两位官员(主张降 息)投下反对票，并未获得其他同僚的公开声援。 纪要写道："几乎所有与会者都认为，在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%是合适 的。" 美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒则主张立即降息25个基点，以防范劳动力市场进一步恶化。这是自1993年 以来，首次有多位美联储理事在利率决策上公开唱反调，关税问题正在央行内部撕开一道越来越深的裂 痕。 然而，会议结束后不到48小时，美国劳工部发布的7月非农就业数据似乎印证了鲍曼和沃勒的担忧：当 月新增就业岗位远低 ...