美国旧金山联储主席戴利（2027年FOMC票委）：支持12月降息。美联储能将通胀降至2%这一目标。 就业市场是脆弱的，劳动力市场突然恶化的可能性更大。官员们的意见分歧折射出对不确定性的看法。 （华尔街日报） ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 11 月 24 日 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320525050001 证书:S1320523020004 核心观点： 9 月美国非农新增就业 11.9 万人好于预期，失业率则上行至 4.4%。美国 政府结束为期 43 天的关门状态后，劳工部恢复运行，11 月 20 日发布 9 月就业数据。美国 9 月非农新增 11.9 万人，高于预期的 5.1 万人，前值由 2.2 万下修至-0.4 万人；失业率小幅上行至 4.4%，高于预期和前值的 4.3%。非农就业的回暖和失业率上行表现分化，主要原因在于 9 月劳动 参与率意外上行至 62.4%，变相扩大失业率分子端，造成失业率上行。9 月就业报告显示美国就业市场放缓趋势相对平稳，仍有一定韧性。 9 月商品生产与服务业就业均回暖，就业良性放缓。从行业结构看，9 月 就业回暖具有相当的广泛性。服务业新增就业 8.7 万，前值 5.0 万，其中 批发、零售业回温，分别新增 0.94 万与 1.39 万，明显好于前值的-0.78 万与 0.32 万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant divide among its officials regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with one faction advocating for a cut to support a weakening job market, while another faction emphasizes the need to address persistent inflation above the 2% target [1][6][11]. Market Reactions - Investor sentiment is fluctuating due to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision, with expectations for a December rate cut swinging dramatically based on new data and Fed comments [3][6][7]. - The probability of a rate cut dropped to 39% following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell but later surged to over 70% after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams [7][8]. Economic Indicators - The September jobs report revealed 119,000 jobs added, but the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, leading to differing interpretations among Fed officials [4][10]. - Fed officials are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including a delayed retail sales report, which is expected to provide further insights into consumer spending [13]. Diverging Perspectives - Dovish officials, like John Williams, argue for a rate cut to support maximum employment, acknowledging that inflation is currently around 3% and forecasting a return to 2% by 2027 [8][9]. - Conversely, hawkish officials express concerns about inflation risks, with some suggesting that lowering rates could exacerbate inflationary pressures and encourage risk-taking in financial markets [11][12]. Future Outlook - The Fed's decision in December will significantly impact borrowing costs, market sentiment, and the economic outlook for growth and inflation in 2026 [3][6]. - Analysts predict a "dovish hold" in December, meaning rates may remain unchanged but with indications of potential cuts in the future [14].

白宫内对此意见也不统一。 商务部长卢特尼克就"更倾向于解雇鲍威尔"，而财长贝森特则竭力劝阻。 这种内部分歧让局面更加复杂。 特朗普曾希望贝森特本人接任美联储主席，但贝森特因偏好现有职位而拒绝了。 这一切都围绕着同一个核心：特朗普试图通过政治力量影响货币政策，这 严重挑战了美联储的独立性传统。 央行独立性被认为是维持货币政策稳定和市场信心的基石。 更让美联储头疼的是经济数据"打架"。 刚公布的9月非农新增就业11.9万人，比市场预期的5万人高出一大截，看起来挺火热的。 同时失业率却从4.3%升到 了4.4%。 而且7月和8月的前值还被大幅下修了3.3万人。 这就像一个人一边说"我吃得特别多"，一边体重却在往下掉，让人搞不清真实状况。 雪上加霜的是数据"断粮"了。 因为之前的政府停摆，原本该公布的10月份非农数据，被推迟到12月美联储议息会议之后才能出来。 这意味着美联储下次开 会决定利率时，关键参考数据是缺失的，几乎等于"盲猜"。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克就直言，担心降息会偏离控制通胀的目标。 而美联储理事沃勒则持不 同看法，他更担忧就业市场持续放缓的风险，因此主张12月应继续降息。 这么一来，市场也懵了。 芝商 ...

Employment Data - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 jobs and revising the previous value from 22,000 to -4,000 jobs[1][16] - The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%[15][35] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7%[15][39] Sector Performance - The service sector added 87,000 jobs in September, up from the previous value of 50,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector saw an increase of 10,000 jobs, recovering from a previous loss of 32,000 jobs[2][27] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors showed significant job recovery, with retail adding 14,000 jobs and leisure/hospitality adding 47,000 jobs in September, both higher than previous values[3][27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong non-farm data may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, with a 39.1% probability of a rate cut in December 2025 according to CME Fedwatch[5][23] - The delay in the release of employment data for October and November adds uncertainty, making a December rate cut less likely[5][23] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% in September, up from 62.3% in August, indicating a rise in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][33] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 219,000 in September, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate[4][35] Wage Trends - The month-on-month increase in average hourly earnings was 0.2%, lower than the previous month's increase of 0.3%[39][40] - The year-on-year wage growth reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates[22][39]

智通财经APP获悉，周四发布的9月就业增长与失业率报告虽然揭示了就业市场的整体状况，但却依旧 未能明确美联储是否需要通过降息来支撑就业市场。 最新动态中，多位美联储官员转向鹰派，包括美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔、芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯 比都发出了对于通胀担忧的信号。 主要负责监管事务的巴尔很少发表关于货币政策的言论，并且对于货币政策前景的发言通常不附带任何 立场，但是他在当地时间周四表示，在考虑进一步降息时，美联储确实需要谨慎行事。古尔斯比则在印 第安纳波利斯的一次活动中表示，通胀"似乎已经停滞不前，甚至可以说有走错方向的警告信号。这让 我感到有些不安"。 国会赋予美联储的双重使命要求其同时维持低通胀与高就业。当前官员们对高通胀与大规模裁员威胁的 研判仍存在严重分歧——持续43天的政府停摆上周刚结束，导致决策所需关键数据大量延迟或缺失。 为抑制通胀，美联储今年多数时间维持基准利率不变，直至夏季就业市场突然放缓后，才在9月和10月 会议上分别降息25基点。在此数据空窗期，9月就业报告犹如微光乍现，却不足以让委员会中的"鹰 派"或"鸽派"占据绝对上风。 该报告的局限性显而易见：首先数据存在时滞——统计期后美联储已 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 11 月 20 日公布数据 。 9 月新增非农 11.9 万人，高于预期的 5 万人 ，亦远高于达拉斯联储 估算的 3 万人 / 月就业平衡水平（即每 个月使劳动力市场保持平衡的新增岗位数量）。 从趋势上看，这是自 5 月以来首次新增岗位明显反弹，反映就业并非线性弱化，前期疲软一定程度上和 4 月关税 一次性冲击有关。从结构上拆解，医疗保健（ +5.7 万人）、休闲酒店（ +4.7 万人）和建筑业（ +1.9 万）为主要贡献；交通和仓储（ -2.5 万人）、专业服务 （ -2.0 万人）、制造业（ -0.6 万人）为主要拖累。 7-8 月合计下修 3.3 万人。 第二， 住户调查数据略弱，失业率继续有所回升。9 月美国失业率（ U3 ）上升 0.12pct 至 4.44% ，为本轮高点（年初为 4.0% ， 2024 年初为 3.7% ）。 其中就业人口上升 25.1 万人，失业人口上升 21.9 万人，劳动力人口规模增加 47 万人。劳动参与率小幅上升 0.1pct 至 62.4% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant internal divisions regarding interest rate policy amid conflicting economic signals, balancing a weak but stable labor market against persistent inflation and potential financial risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, warns that further rate cuts could exacerbate high inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets, emphasizing that current financial conditions are "quite loose" [1][2] - Mester opposes the recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, arguing that monetary policy's effectiveness in controlling price pressures is limited [2] - Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, expresses caution regarding inflation data, noting that recent employment figures show stability but warns against premature rate cuts until inflation trends are confirmed [2][3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The delayed September non-farm payroll report shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating underlying weaknesses [3] - The market's focus has shifted from inflation narratives to growth and employment narratives following the employment report, reflecting the complexity of the current economic landscape [3] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will remain highly data-dependent, navigating the delicate balance between preventing market panic and avoiding economic slowdown [3]

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：过去三个月的通胀充其量是保持稳定，从某些衡 量标准来看更糟。在确定通胀回升是否是暂时的之前，对提前大幅降息感到不安。认为美联储主席鲍威 尔努力建立共识的做法很有价值。如果我最终意见强烈，且与其他美联储政策制定者意见不同，提出异 议也没有错。在美联储9月降息后，认为2025年只需要再降息一次。当我投票支持美联储10月降息时， 假定就业市场正在逐渐降温。9月就业数据显示稳定、温和降温；失业救济申请没有显示快速恶化。官 方政府数据是"一团糟"；缺乏通胀可见性带来的风险大于缺乏劳动力市场可见性带来的风险，因为劳动 力市场有更多替代数据。就中期利率而言，他不是鹰派。相信利率将远低于目前的水平。 ...

I'm at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank with the president, Beth Hammock. Uh Beth, thank you for having us here in Cleveland, >> Steve. We're thrilled that you came out and made the trip.>> Great. What an interesting conference you're putting on about financial stability. A good time for that, but also good time to talk about the outlook for Fed policy.Uh let's start with the easy thing, which is my question about your takeaway from this morning's jobs report. >> Um well, we we've only had a short amount ...