Sempra (NYSE:SRE) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Glen Donovan - SVP, Finance Jeff Martin - Chairman and CEO Karen Sedgwick - EVP and CFO Allen Nye - CEO, Oncor Caroline Winn - CEO of SDG&E Conference Call Participants Ross Fowler - Bank of America Carly Davenport - Goldman Sachs Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Nicholas Campanella - Barclays Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Jefferies Durgesh Chopra - Evercore ISI Anthony Crowdell - Mizuho David Arcaro - Morgan Stanley ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter 2025 earnings of $2.27 per share, indicating a solid start to the year [21] - The earnings guidance for 2025 is projected to be in the range of $5.17 to $5.27 per share, assuming normal weather conditions [22] - The Board of Directors raised the dividend by 6.9%, marking the 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on a balanced power generation mix, with plans to add 4,300 megawatts of renewable generation over the next five years, requiring an investment of $9.1 billion [24] - Significant investments are planned in natural gas generation and liquefied natural gas storage to enhance reliability [24][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Economic development opportunities are expected to drive significant growth in electricity demand, with major investments from companies like Microsoft and Eli Lilly in the region [22][23] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate in earnings of 6.5% to 7% [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a $28 billion investment plan, the largest in its history, aimed at supporting safety, reliability, and growth [23] - The capital plan includes projects for renewable energy, natural gas generation, and strengthening the distribution network [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute the capital plan and highlighted the bright future and significant investment opportunities ahead [27] - The company is focused on maintaining reliability while integrating a mix of energy sources to meet growing capacity needs [30][34] Other Important Information - The proposals to amend the articles of incorporation and bylaws to eliminate supermajority voting did not pass, while the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will there be less demand for renewable energy during the Trump years? - Management indicated that a mix of energy sources, including renewables, is necessary to meet growing electricity demand, and customers are benefiting from fuel savings due to renewables [29][31] Question: Why not invest in reliable power sources like nuclear instead of renewables? - Management emphasized the need for a mix of energy sources and noted that nuclear is a long-term option that requires significant time to develop [32][34] Question: Can you comment on the current regulatory environment in Illinois and the Chicago pipeline replacement program? - Management reported receiving clarity on the need to replace approximately 1,100 miles of old pipeline and is ramping up efforts to execute the replacement program efficiently [35][37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.70, an increase from $0.62 in Q1 2024, attributed to favorable decisions from the CPUC regarding new water and electric rates [7][8] - Consolidated revenues for Q1 increased by $12.7 million compared to the same quarter last year [9] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $45.1 million for the quarter, slightly down from $45.8 million in the same quarter last year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Water utility earnings increased to $0.52 per share from $0.48 per share, primarily due to new water rates [8] - Electric segment earnings rose to $0.07 per share from $0.05 per share, driven by new electric rates [9] - ASUS earnings remained stable at $0.13 per share, with increased management fee revenues offset by decreased construction activity [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the water segment increased by $11.7 million due to new 2025 water rates [10] - Electric segment revenues increased by $2.8 million, also due to new rates [10] - Revenues from ASUS decreased by $1.8 million, primarily due to lower construction activities impacted by unfavorable weather [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest $170 million to $210 million in infrastructure in 2025, with a focus on capital projects approved by the CPUC [7][15] - Golden State Water is transitioning to a modified rate adjustment mechanism, which may introduce future revenue volatility [19][20] - The company anticipates sustained growth in its rate base due to recent regulatory approvals [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the regulatory environment, noting successful rate case outcomes and ongoing investments [17][22] - There is uncertainty regarding future military base privatizations, with expectations of potential opportunities in 2025 [33][34] - The company remains committed to maintaining a strong dividend growth rate, exceeding its long-term goals [25] Other Important Information - The company raised $25.8 million through its at-the-market offering program in Q1 2025 [15] - Credit facility terms were extended, and borrowing capacity increased from $165 million to $195 million [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Equity raise expectations for 2025 - Management confirmed a target of raising approximately $60 million over the full year 2025, with reassessment based on credit facility capacity [28][29] Question: Update on military base privatization efforts - Management indicated no current fifty-year privatizations are available, but potential Army privatizations may arise later in the year [32][33] - The Navy is actively pursuing privatization opportunities, with ongoing efforts to secure contracts [34][35] Question: Nature of nontraditional contracts - Management noted that fifteen-year contracts may be easier for bases to manage compared to fifty-year contracts, with ongoing pursuits in this area [41][42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.70, an increase from $0.62 in Q1 2024, attributed to favorable decisions from the CPUC regarding new water and electric rates [7][8] - Consolidated revenues for Q1 increased by $12.7 million compared to the same quarter last year [9] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $45.1 million for the quarter, slightly down from $45.8 million in the same quarter last year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Golden State Water's earnings were $0.52 per share, up from $0.48 per share in the previous year, primarily due to new water rates [8] - The electric segment's earnings increased to $0.07 per share from $0.05 per share, driven by new electric rates [9] - ASUS earnings remained consistent at $0.13 per share compared to the same period in 2024, despite a decrease in construction activity [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the water segment increased by $11.7 million due to new 2025 water rates [10] - Revenues for the electric segment rose by $2.8 million, also due to new rates [10] - Revenues from ASUS decreased by $1.8 million, impacted by lower construction activities due to unfavorable weather conditions [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest between $170 million to $210 million in infrastructure investments for 2025 [7][15] - Golden State Water is transitioning to a modified rate adjustment mechanism, which may introduce future revenue volatility [19] - The company aims to maintain a compound annual growth rate in dividends of over 7% in the long term, with a current CAGR of 8.8% over the last five years [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the regulatory decisions received, which are expected to support future growth [17][22] - There is uncertainty regarding future military base privatizations due to changes in administration, but management remains optimistic about ongoing projects [32][41] - The company anticipates continued growth in its rate base due to recent regulatory approvals and capital investments [21] Other Important Information - The company raised $25.8 million through its at-the-market offering program in Q1 2025 [15] - The credit facility term was extended from June 2028 to June 2029, with an increased borrowing capacity from $165 million to $195 million [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Equity raised via ATM and full year expectations - Management confirmed the target of raising approximately $60 million over the full year 2025, with some capacity available in the credit facility [27][28] Question: Update on military base privatization efforts - Management indicated no current fifty-year privatizations are available, but expects potential Army privatizations later in the year, with ongoing assessments [31][32] Question: Nature of nontraditional contracts - Management explained that fifteen-year contracts may be easier for bases to manage compared to fifty-year contracts, and they are pursuing several nontraditional privatization opportunities [40][41]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.70, an increase from $0.62 in Q1 2024, attributed to favorable decisions from the CPUC regarding new water and electric rates [7][10] - Consolidated revenues for Q1 increased by $12.7 million compared to the same quarter last year [10] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $45.1 million for the quarter, slightly down from $45.8 million in the same quarter last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Golden State Water's earnings were $0.52 per share, up from $0.48 per share in the previous year, primarily due to new water rates [8] - The electric segment's earnings increased to $0.07 per share from $0.05 per share, driven by new electric rates [10] - ASUS earnings remained consistent at $0.13 per share compared to the same period in 2024, despite a decrease in construction activities due to unfavorable weather [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the water segment increased by $11.7 million due to new 2025 water rates [11] - Electric segment revenues rose by $2.8 million, also due to new rates [11] - Revenues from ASUS decreased by $1.8 million, primarily due to lower construction activities impacted by weather conditions [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest between $170 million to $210 million in infrastructure investments in 2025 [7] - Golden State Water is transitioning to a modified rate adjustment mechanism, which may introduce future revenue volatility due to changes in water consumption and supply source mix [19][20] - The company anticipates robust growth in its rate base, supported by recent regulatory decisions allowing significant capital investments [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the financial results and the impact of new regulatory decisions on future earnings [6][17] - The company is monitoring the potential for military base privatizations, with expectations of some activity in 2025, although uncertainty remains due to changes in administration [33][34] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong credit ratings and liquidity to support ongoing investments [16] Other Important Information - The company raised $25.8 million through its at-the-market offering program in Q1 2025 [15] - The Board of Directors approved a second-quarter cash dividend, continuing a trend of increasing dividends at a CAGR of 8.8% over the last five years [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Equity raised via ATM and full-year expectations - Management confirmed a target of raising approximately $60 million over the full year 2025, with reassessment based on credit facility capacity [28][29] Question: Update on military base privatization efforts - Management indicated no current privatizations are expected in 2025, but the Army may initiate one or two later in the year, with ongoing assessments of the situation [32][33] Question: Nature of nontraditional contracts - Management explained that nontraditional contracts, such as fifteen-year agreements, may be easier for bases to manage compared to fifty-year contracts, and they are pursuing such opportunities [41][42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is reaffirming its 2025 earnings guidance range of $4 to $4.2, representing a 5% growth rate at the midpoint over 2024 EPS [9][10] - Year-over-year earnings drivers for Q1 2025 included $0.29 per share of new margins, with $0.26 from new rates and rider recovery, and $0.03 from customer growth and usage [13][14] - O&M expenses increased by $0.24 per share, primarily due to higher employee costs, outside services, and insurance costs [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully implemented new rates through five rate reviews since early 2024, recovering over $1.3 billion of new system investments [6][8] - The data center demand is expected to reach approximately 500 megawatts by the end of 2029, with EPS contribution from data centers projected to double to over 10% of total EPS in 2028 [12][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong customer growth, with new all-time customer peak loads in Wyoming Electric reflecting nearly a 10% increase over the previous peak [7][8] - The company is well-positioned to maximize growth opportunities due to favorable land prices, business climates, and a quality workforce [8][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Key objectives for the year include achieving 5% year-over-year earnings growth, executing regulatory initiatives, and a $1 billion capital plan [5][6] - The company is focusing on safety and system integrity projects, modernization programs, and infrastructure expansion to support growing demands [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 guidance and long-term EPS growth target of 4% to 6%, driven by a robust balance sheet and capital forecasts [10][11] - The company is optimistic about the impact of new legislation in Wyoming that provides liability protections related to wildfire mitigation [8][29] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest $4.7 billion over a five-year period through 2029, prioritizing safety and system integrity [11][12] - The company has a strong liquidity position with nearly $700 million available under its revolving credit facility [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the electric rate case and the request for rehearing? - Management confirmed an increase in new annual revenue of about half a million and is reviewing the decision for potential next steps [33][34][36] Question: What is the outlook for the franchise agreement in Pueblo? - Management noted that the franchise was retained through a vote and emphasized the importance of affordability and economic development in the area [37][39][40] Question: Can you elaborate on the timing of equity needs? - Management indicated that equity issuance is based on capital project timing and maintaining credit metrics, with expectations for lower annual equity needs in the future [42][45] Question: How are wildfire mitigation efforts progressing in Colorado and South Dakota? - Management anticipates similar outcomes in Colorado and South Dakota as seen in Wyoming, with ongoing legislative efforts [48][49] Question: Is there interest in capital light strategies in South Dakota? - Management confirmed ongoing interest from large customers in Colorado and South Dakota, with potential for customized tariffs based on customer needs [56][57]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is reaffirming its 2025 earnings guidance range of $4 to $4.2, representing a 5% growth rate at the midpoint over 2024 EPS [9][10] - Year-over-year earnings drivers for Q1 2025 included $0.29 per share of new margins, with $0.26 from new rates and rider recovery, and $0.03 from customer growth and usage [13][14] - O&M expenses increased by $0.24 per share, primarily due to higher employee costs, outside services, and insurance costs [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully implemented new rates through five rate reviews since early 2024, recovering over $1.3 billion in new system investments [6][8] - The data center demand is projected to reach approximately 500 megawatts by the end of 2029, with expectations for EPS contribution from data centers to double to over 10% of total EPS by 2028 [12][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong customer growth, with two new all-time customer peak loads at Wyoming Electric, reflecting nearly a 10% increase over the previous peak in January 2024 [7][8] - The company is experiencing favorable business and regulatory climates, which are contributing to ongoing growth opportunities [8][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Key objectives for the year include achieving 5% year-over-year earnings growth, executing regulatory initiatives, and a $1 billion capital plan [5][6] - The company is strategically expanding its infrastructure to serve growing customer demands, particularly in data centers and blockchain operations [8][12] - The capital plan prioritizes safety, system integrity projects, and infrastructure expansion to support growing demands [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 guidance and long-term EPS growth targets of 4% to 6% [10][31] - The company is well-positioned to maximize growth opportunities while mitigating risks, such as through wildfire legislation in Wyoming [8][29] - Management noted that the future of the Inflation Reduction Act is uncertain, but the company's strategic exposure is minimal [10][11] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with nearly $700 million available under its revolving credit facility [17][18] - The company has a history of 55 consecutive years of dividend payments, targeting a payout ratio of 55% to 65% [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the electric rate case and the request for rehearing? - Management confirmed an increase in new annual revenue of about half a million and is reviewing the decision for potential next steps [33][34][36] Question: What is the outlook for the franchise agreement in Pueblo? - Management expressed satisfaction with the recent vote to keep the franchise agreement and emphasized the importance of affordability and economic development in the area [37][39][40] Question: Can you discuss the timing of equity needs and the lower levels expected in the future? - Management clarified that equity issuance is based on timing of capital projects and maintaining credit metrics, with expectations for lower equity needs in 2026 and beyond [42][45] Question: What is the status of wildfire mitigation efforts in Colorado and South Dakota? - Management anticipates similar outcomes in Colorado and South Dakota as seen in Wyoming, with ongoing legislative efforts [48][49] Question: Is there interest in capital light strategies in South Dakota? - Management noted continued interest from large customers in Colorado and South Dakota, with potential for customized tariffs based on customer needs [56][57] Question: How are insurance costs being handled in Colorado? - Management indicated that insurance cost recovery will be rolled into rate reviews in Colorado, similar to the approach taken in Wyoming [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is reaffirming its 2025 earnings guidance range of $4 to $4.2, representing a 5% growth rate at the midpoint over 2024 EPS [7][9] - Year-over-year earnings drivers for Q1 2025 included $0.29 per share of new margins, with $0.26 from new rates and rider recovery, and $0.03 from customer growth and usage [12][13] - O&M expenses increased by $0.24 per share, primarily due to higher employee costs, outside services, and insurance costs [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has successfully implemented new rates through five rate reviews since early 2024, recovering over $1.3 billion in new system investments [5][6] - The data center demand is expected to contribute more than 10% of total EPS by 2028, with a forecast of approximately 500 megawatts of data center demand by the end of 2029 [11][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong customer growth, with record peaks in demand, including a nearly 10% increase over the previous all-time peak in January 2024 [5][6] - The company’s multistate footprint provides valuable regulatory, weather, and customer diversification, supporting EPS stability and growth [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Key objectives for the year include achieving 5% year-over-year earnings growth, executing regulatory initiatives, and a $1 billion capital plan [4] - The company is strategically expanding its infrastructure to serve growing customer demands, particularly in data centers and blockchain operations [6][11] - The capital plan includes investing $4.7 billion over five years, prioritizing safety, system integrity, and infrastructure expansion [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 guidance and long-term EPS growth target of 4% to 6%, driven by strong customer demand and a robust pipeline of growth opportunities [9][28] - The company is well-positioned to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities due to favorable business and regulatory climates [6][9] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with nearly $700 million available under its revolving credit facility [15] - The company has a history of 55 consecutive years of dividend payments, targeting a payout ratio of 55% to 65% [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the electric rate case and the request for rehearing? - Management confirmed an increase in new annual revenue of about half a million and is reviewing the decision for potential next steps [31][32] Question: What is the outlook for the franchise agreement in Pueblo? - The franchise agreement was voted to be kept in place, and management is focused on maintaining affordability and economic development in the area [34][36] Question: Can you elaborate on the equity raised this quarter? - The company raised approximately $46 million in equity, with plans to meet the $215 million to $235 million guidance for the year [38][40] Question: What is the status of wildfire mitigation efforts in Colorado and South Dakota? - Management anticipates similar outcomes in Colorado and South Dakota as seen in Wyoming, with ongoing legislative efforts [44][45] Question: Is there interest in capital light strategies in South Dakota? - There is significant interest from large customers in Colorado and South Dakota, and the tariff structure will be tailored to customer needs [52][53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, adjusted earnings were reported at $0.54 per share, unchanged from Q1 2024, with total earnings of $125 million compared to $124.7 million a year ago [5][25] - Retail demand grew by 2.7%, while weather-normalized demand decreased by 3%, indicating a mixed performance influenced by weather conditions and customer outages [27][28] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.92 to $4.12 per share, with a midpoint of $4.02 per share [7][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recovery of regulated investments contributed $0.13 to EPS, while higher depreciation and interest expenses due to increased infrastructure investments reduced EPS by $0.10 [26] - The industrial sector experienced a decline in demand primarily due to a large customer outage caused by an unplanned maintenance shutdown [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The customer pipeline expanded to 12.2 gigawatts, with significant projects in the actively building category, including a data center project in Missouri [12][14] - The company anticipates a ramp-up in demand from large customers like Meta and Panasonic in the second half of the year, contributing to overall growth [28][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term outlook remains strong, with a target of 4% to 6% earnings growth through 2029, supported by a robust customer pipeline and favorable regulatory frameworks [7][35] - The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) reflects an all-of-the-above strategy for new generation development, adding approximately 2.1 gigawatts of new generation from 2025 through 2035 [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the midpoint of the EPS target for 2025, citing strong operational performance and expected demand growth [29][35] - The company is committed to maintaining reliability and affordability while advancing a balanced generation portfolio [23][24] Other Important Information - Recent legislative outcomes in Kansas and Missouri are expected to enhance regulatory frameworks and support infrastructure investments [9][10] - The company is focused on managing operational costs and leveraging various levers to meet financial targets [81][84] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on quarterly performance and expectations - The first quarter came in 5 cents below expectations, with a gross number of $3.97 before mitigating actions [40][41] Question: Timing of large customer contracts - The timing for the 1.3 gigawatts is linked to finalizing large load power service tariff proceedings, expected to conclude by year-end [43][45] Question: Impact of sales growth on equity - Increased sales could significantly reduce equity needs, potentially hundreds of millions of dollars over the five-year period [52][53] Question: Coal plant retirement rationale - The timing for coal plant retirements was extended due to the need for flexibility and the age of the units, with considerations for environmental regulations [76][78] Question: Large load tariff discussions - The company is engaged in constructive dialogue with large customers regarding tariff proceedings, which are crucial for future growth [90][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.54 per share, unchanged from the previous year [5][27] - Retail demand grew by 2.7%, while heating degree days increased by 18%, but margin benefits were limited due to declining block pricing [6][28] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.92 to $4.12 per share, with a midpoint of $4.02 per share [7][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recovery of regulated investments contributed $0.13 to EPS, while higher depreciation and interest expenses reduced EPS by $0.10 [28] - Total demand grew by 2.7%, but weather-normalized demand decreased by 3% due to a large industrial customer outage [29][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has a robust customer pipeline, with a backlog of growth opportunities expanding to 12.2 gigawatts [13] - The company anticipates significant demand growth from large customers like Meta and Panasonic, contributing approximately 500 megawatts by 2029 [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for long-term earnings growth of 4% to 6% through 2029, supported by strong demand from new customers and regulatory frameworks [7][37] - The integrated resource plan reflects an all-of-the-above strategy for new generation development, adding approximately 2.1 gigawatts of new generation from 2025 through 2035 [17][18] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving the midpoint of EPS targets despite a slower start to the year, citing strong operational performance and cost management [31][37] - The company remains committed to investing in infrastructure to support growth while ensuring reliability and affordability for customers [24][25] Other Important Information - Recent legislative outcomes in Kansas and Missouri are expected to enhance regulatory frameworks and support infrastructure investment [10][11] - The company is in advanced discussions with customers representing approximately three gigawatts of load, indicating significant interest in the region [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on quarterly performance and expectations - Management clarified that the first quarter came in 5 cents below expectations before mitigating actions, with a base outlook for the full year at $3.97 [41][43] Question: Timing of large load contracts - Management indicated that the timing for the 1.3 gigawatts of load is likely linked to finalizing large load power service tariff proceedings, expected to conclude by year-end [45][47] Question: Impact of sales growth on equity - Management noted that increased load growth could significantly reduce equity needs, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars over the five-year period [55] Question: Coal plant retirement rationale - Management discussed the rationale for extending coal plant retirement timelines, emphasizing the age and maintenance needs of older units [75][77] Question: Operational and maintenance levers - Management highlighted the ability to manage operational and maintenance costs to meet guidance, ensuring reliability while maintaining flexibility [79][82] Question: Large load tariff discussions - Management confirmed the importance of constructive outcomes in tariff discussions for attracting large customers and spreading fixed costs [87][91]