Investment Rating - The report maintains a tactical Neutral (N) rating for equities over a 3-month horizon and an Overweight (OW) rating for equities over a 12-month horizon [5][9]. Core Insights - The current market sentiment has shifted towards a 'Goldilocks' narrative, characterized by a resilient macro backdrop and expectations of dovish monetary policy, despite potential headwinds from tariffs and a mixed growth/inflation outlook [4][15]. - The report identifies three potential risks ('bears') for the second half of the year: a significant negative growth shock, a large rate shock affecting long-duration bonds, and a deepening bear market for the Dollar [5][62]. - There is an emphasis on diversification across asset classes and regions, with specific recommendations for shorter-duration bonds, low volatility stocks, infrastructure, Gold, financials, and selective emerging market exposure [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has rebounded to somewhat bullish levels after a rapid re-risking phase, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [4][27]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, the report warns of elevated valuations and a modestly negative asymmetry for equities in the near term, suggesting a higher probability of drawdowns compared to rallies [47][52]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The report recommends a tactical asset allocation of Overweight in cash and equities, Neutral in bonds and credit, and Underweight in commodities for the next 3 months [5][7]. - For the 12-month horizon, the strategy remains Overweight in equities and Neutral in cash, credit, and bonds, while continuing to Underweight commodities [5][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with a deteriorating growth/inflation mix primarily driven by tariff impacts [15][67]. - The report highlights that while hard data has shown some negative surprises, the labor market remains resilient, and inflation pressures have not significantly materialized [19][67]. Sector and Asset Class Insights - The report suggests that equities may face headwinds from potential tariff impacts and a slowdown in corporate profitability, particularly in the US [66][71]. - Gold is highlighted as a key safe haven asset, with price forecasts raised to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, supported by strong central bank buying [13][71]. Diversification Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in multi-asset portfolios, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and potential risks [58][62]. - Specific diversification strategies include focusing on shorter-duration bonds, quality stocks, and safe-haven assets like Gold and the Swiss Franc [71][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a global growth slowdown, forecasting a decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with the US experiencing a drop in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. - The impact of tariffs is highlighted as a structural shock to the global trading order, affecting demand and supply across various economies, particularly in the US and China [1][7]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report suggests that risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less severe growth expectations [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with the US at 1.0%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets (EM) at 3.8% [8]. - Inflation rates are expected to be 2.1% globally and 3.0% in the US for 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, while in Europe, the report recommends a shift towards resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging Markets are recommended to focus on financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and P/E ratios for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,500 with a P/E of 21.5x, MSCI Europe at 2,250 with a P/E of 15.2x, and MSCI EM at 1,200 with a P/E of 12.5x [6].

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Goldman Sachs plans to ask junior bankers to confirm their loyalty on a regular basis in a bid to limit advances from talent-hungry buyout firms https://t.co/HxUfh0r1Mn ...