Core Insights - Lijiang Co. achieved total operating revenue of 808 million yuan in 2024, marking a historical high with continued positive growth; net profit attributable to shareholders was 211 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The company reported significant fluctuations in fixed assets and management expenses, primarily due to the trial operation of the Lugu Lake Indigo Hotel starting July 30, 2024, which contributed to the increase in fixed assets and management costs [1] Business Performance - The core business of Lijiang Co. showed steady improvement, with three cableways achieving remarkable operational results; the total number of visitors reached 6.6684 million, an increase of 547,300 visitors year-on-year [1] - The Yak Cow Flat cableway received 526,600 visitors, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.51%, with an increase of nearly 40% in demand for capacity [1] Infrastructure Development - The company is actively promoting the expansion and renovation of the Yak Cow Flat cableway, aiming to start construction in the first half of the year, with a planned construction period of 18 months; the current capacity is 360 people per hour, which is expected to increase to 1,900 people per hour post-renovation [2] - Lijiang Co. intends to leverage its core tourism resource advantages, brand strengths, management experience, and marketing advantages to elevate its business to new heights [2]

Summary of Lijiang Co., Ltd. Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Lijiang Co., Ltd., a company operating in the tourism sector, particularly in scenic areas in Yunnan, China, with a strong emphasis on its core resource, Yulong Snow Mountain [3][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Post-Pandemic Financial Performance**: Lijiang Co. reported its best-ever performance in Q1 2023, indicating a strong recovery in market demand and the ability to attract visitors to its scenic spots [3][6]. - **Supply-Side Improvements**: The company is enhancing its infrastructure and launching new projects, such as the renovation of the Yak Cow Slope cableway and the development of mid-to-high-end hotels and performance businesses in Shangri-La and Lugu Lake areas, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4]. - **High Profitability**: Lijiang Co. boasts a net profit margin of 30%, leading among listed companies in the scenic area sector, with a valuation consistently between 20-25 times earnings. The company also has a high dividend payout ratio, planning to distribute 90% of its profits in 2024, making it an attractive investment option [3][5]. - **Core Tourism Resource**: Yulong Snow Mountain is identified as the company's primary tourism asset, with the company controlling three cableways, particularly the Yulong Glacier Park cableway, which has an annual visitor capacity of 3-3.2 million [3][8]. - **Diverse Business Operations**: In addition to cableway operations, Lijiang Co. runs the "Impression Lijiang" performance series and operates mid-to-high-end hotel brands like Indigo and InterContinental, which contribute to overall performance and growth potential [3][9]. - **Future Growth Potential in Hotel Sector**: The hotel business is seen as a crucial component for future growth. Despite recent revenue declines due to consumption fluctuations, the mid-to-high-end hotel market still holds potential. Achieving breakeven and consistent profitability in this segment will positively impact overall performance [3][10]. - **Long-Term Outlook**: The company is optimistic about its future, with limited downside risk to its stock price and reasonable valuation. Ongoing supply-side improvements and new tourism projects are expected to enhance competitiveness and attract more visitors [3][6]. Other Important Insights - **Visitor Capacity and Demand**: The Yulong Glacier Park cableway's high demand and exclusivity contribute to its profitability, with a daily visitor cap of 11,000, ensuring consistent high load factors and fixed costs [3][8]. - **Strategic Expansion**: The company is strategically expanding its operations in the northwestern Yunnan region, focusing on new performance and cableway renovation projects, which could provide additional growth opportunities in the long term [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Lijiang Co., indicating a forecasted relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable operations in 2024, with Q4 revenue performance showing double growth. The dividend proposal remains consistent with the previous year, yielding a dividend rate of 3.5% based on the closing price on March 18 [3][5]. - The company’s 2024 revenue is projected at 808 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 211 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year due to fluctuations in gross margin and expense ratios [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 799 million yuan - 2024A: 808 million yuan - 2025E: 866 million yuan - 2026E: 936 million yuan - 2027E: 967 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 152% (2023A), 1% (2024A), 7% (2025E), 8% (2026E), 3% (2027E) [2][5]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 227 million yuan - 2024A: 211 million yuan - 2025E: 250 million yuan - 2026E: 283 million yuan - 2027E: 303 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 6072% (2023A), -7% (2024A), 18% (2025E), 13% (2026E), 7% (2027E) [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.41 yuan - 2024A: 0.38 yuan - 2025E: 0.45 yuan - 2026E: 0.52 yuan - 2027E: 0.55 yuan [2][5]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: 24.0 (2023A), 25.9 (2024A), 21.9 (2025E), 19.3 (2026E), 18.0 (2027E) - P/B: 2.2 (2023A), 2.2 (2024A), 2.0 (2025E), 1.9 (2026E), 1.8 (2027E) [2][5]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s core business segments, including cableway and performance services, continue to show growth. In 2024, the total number of visitors to the three cableways reached 6.6684 million, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The revenue from cableway services was 410 million yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, while performance revenue was 140 million yuan, reflecting a 2.5% increase [5][6]. - The hotel business remains under pressure, with a revenue of 167 million yuan in 2024, down 11.1% year-on-year. The company continues to expand its hotel offerings, including the opening of a luxury hotel in July 2024 [5][6].

昨晚评论席有人问我做西安大唐不夜城的曲江文旅，为什么上半年还亏了将近2亿，我当时第一直觉是成本控制有问题，收盘后去验证了一下，发现情况 要复杂一些。 首先大唐不夜城虽然是一个网红景点，但它不收门票，流量大，但人均消费低。曲江文旅是轻资产代运营，挣的是收入分成，最后上市公司到账只有很薄 的利润，上半年就赚了20多万。 其次曲江文旅在当地事业单位和机构有大量的应收账款，在上半年计提了小2亿的坏账，这是上半年亏损的主要来源。涉及坏账的对象是西安曲江新区事 业资产管理中心、西安曲江大明宫遗址区保护改造办公室、西安曲江文化产业发展中心，累计坏账5亿多。 这些单位名字一听就一股官味，是的，和曲江文旅一样，都是由曲江新区管委会最终控制，说白了大家就是国资控股的兄弟企业。 是不是听了觉得怪怪 的， 国资企业 互相欠帐，最后把坏账装到上市公司里，股民成了最终买单的倒霉蛋。 其实类似的情况还有张家界（000430），旅游行业红红火火，但是上市公司上半年亏6000万。原因是投资20亿修的大庸古城，上半年客流量下跌80%，买 票人数只有0.23万，营业收入232万。 就这么一片现代仿古建筑群，我没看出来20亿是怎么花的，反正也都是花 ...