Core Insights - The domestic melamine industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period due to a supply-demand imbalance, with both capacity expansion and weak demand intensifying market competition [1][2]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The domestic melamine market ended the first half of 2025 on a downward trend, primarily driven by a fundamental imbalance in supply and demand [2]. - As of 2024, domestic melamine production capacity reached 2.31 million tons, expected to increase to 2.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with an additional 940,000 tons of new capacity to be released in the coming years [2]. - Demand remains weak, particularly from the construction sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of melamine consumption. The sales area of new commercial housing in 2024 is projected to decline by 12.9% year-on-year [2]. Profitability Pressure - The supply-demand pressure has directly impacted corporate profitability, with melamine prices in 2025 plummeting by 20% year-on-year [3]. - As of October 16, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory cash reference price for melamine was 5,084 yuan, with profit margins for various production methods shrinking significantly [3]. - The core reasons for narrowing profits include persistent weak demand and limited support from raw material prices, with urea prices also declining [3]. Export Challenges - In the first eight months of the year, China's melamine export volume reached 427,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. However, the average export price fell by $166.3, indicating that increased export volume did not translate into higher profits [4]. Industry Structural Adjustments - The industry is witnessing three major trends: increased enterprise concentration, regional concentration, and a shift towards green and high-end transformation [5]. - The market share of the top five melamine companies (CR5) rose from 38% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase over five years [5]. - By the end of 2025, five regions (Xinjiang, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Shanxi) will account for 77.5% of the total melamine production capacity in China [5]. Green and High-End Transformation - Stricter environmental regulations and upgraded downstream demand are driving the need for green and high-end transformation in the industry [5][6]. - The implementation of the national standard GB 18580-2025 will compel manufacturers to use low-formaldehyde additives, indirectly boosting the demand for environmentally friendly melamine [6]. - Long-term success in the melamine industry will depend on optimizing capacity, upgrading technology, and expanding demand [6].

"内卷"严重 产能激增 价格连跌 中化新网讯 近日，由中国氮肥工业协会主办、潞安化工丰喜集团承办的2025年全国三聚氰胺行业工作 会议在山西运城召开。协会理事长顾宗勤指出，今年以来三聚氰胺行业市场规模变化不大，但价格延续 去年下跌趋势，市场竞争加剧，"内卷"现象严重，部分企业成本倒挂、经营困难，严控产能已迫在眉 睫。 据中氮协统计，近几年三聚氰胺产能年均增速达5%以上。2024年国内三聚氰胺产能231万吨，产量 164.2万吨，比2023年增长9.8%，企业开工率71%；2025年1至8月，国内产能已达242万吨，产量111.8万 吨，同比增长3.8%，企业开工率降低至69%。预计到2025年底，行业总产能将达260万吨，未来几年还 将有94万吨新增产能陆续投产。 今年以来，受房地产市场低迷影响，国内三聚氰胺需求与价格双双承压。下游板材等核心应用行业需求 疲软，部分时段还遭遇传统淡季，进一步抑制需求释放。价格方面，1至8月国内三聚氰胺平均价格为 5239元(吨价，下同)，与2024年相比，降低1340元，同比下降20%。 出口同样面临挑战。2024年，我国三聚氰胺出口量比上年增长21.3%，但2025年1至8 ...