Core Viewpoint - The domestic melamine industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period characterized by supply-demand imbalance, leading to intensified market competition and declining prices since 2025 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The domestic melamine market ended the first half of 2025 with a downward trend, primarily driven by supply-demand imbalance. The production capacity reached 2.31 million tons in 2024 and is expected to increase to 2.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with an additional 940,000 tons of new capacity expected to come online in the following years [2]. - Demand remains weak, particularly from the construction sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of melamine consumption. The sales area of new commercial housing is projected to decline by 12.9% in 2024, and the consumption of melamine in the artificial board industry is expected to drop to 771,100 tons in 2025, a further decrease from 2024 [2]. Profit Margin Compression - The supply-demand pressure has directly impacted corporate profitability, with melamine prices dropping by 20% year-on-year in 2025. As of mid-October, the cash reference price for melamine was 5,084 yuan per ton, while production costs for companies using external urea ranged from 4,778 to 4,856 yuan, resulting in a profit margin of only 228 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous week [3]. - The core reasons for the shrinking profit margins include persistent weak demand and limited support from raw material prices. The average price of urea in the third quarter of 2025 was 1,762 yuan, reflecting a 6.37% decline from the previous quarter and a 17.27% year-on-year drop [3]. Export Challenges - The export volume of melamine reached 427,300 tons in the first eight months of the year, a 6.2% increase year-on-year. However, the average export price fell by 166.3 USD, resulting in a situation where increased export volume did not translate into higher profits [4]. Industry Structural Adjustments - The industry is witnessing three major trends: increased concentration of enterprises, heightened regional concentration, and a shift towards green and high-end transformation. The market share of the top five melamine companies (CR5) rose from 38% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, indicating a 14 percentage point increase over five years [5]. - By the end of 2025, the total melamine production capacity in China is expected to reach 2.6 million tons, with five regions (Xinjiang, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Shanxi) accounting for 77.5% of this capacity [5]. - The tightening of environmental regulations and the upgrading of downstream demand are driving the need for green and high-end transformation in the industry. The implementation of the new national standard for formaldehyde emissions in 2026 is expected to indirectly boost the demand for environmentally friendly melamine [5][6].

Core Insights - The domestic melamine industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period due to a supply-demand imbalance, with both capacity expansion and weak demand intensifying market competition [1][2]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The domestic melamine market ended the first half of 2025 on a downward trend, primarily driven by a fundamental imbalance in supply and demand [2]. - As of 2024, domestic melamine production capacity reached 2.31 million tons, expected to increase to 2.6 million tons by the end of 2025, with an additional 940,000 tons of new capacity to be released in the coming years [2]. - Demand remains weak, particularly from the construction sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of melamine consumption. The sales area of new commercial housing in 2024 is projected to decline by 12.9% year-on-year [2]. Profitability Pressure - The supply-demand pressure has directly impacted corporate profitability, with melamine prices in 2025 plummeting by 20% year-on-year [3]. - As of October 16, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory cash reference price for melamine was 5,084 yuan, with profit margins for various production methods shrinking significantly [3]. - The core reasons for narrowing profits include persistent weak demand and limited support from raw material prices, with urea prices also declining [3]. Export Challenges - In the first eight months of the year, China's melamine export volume reached 427,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. However, the average export price fell by $166.3, indicating that increased export volume did not translate into higher profits [4]. Industry Structural Adjustments - The industry is witnessing three major trends: increased enterprise concentration, regional concentration, and a shift towards green and high-end transformation [5]. - The market share of the top five melamine companies (CR5) rose from 38% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase over five years [5]. - By the end of 2025, five regions (Xinjiang, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Shanxi) will account for 77.5% of the total melamine production capacity in China [5]. Green and High-End Transformation - Stricter environmental regulations and upgraded downstream demand are driving the need for green and high-end transformation in the industry [5][6]. - The implementation of the national standard GB 18580-2025 will compel manufacturers to use low-formaldehyde additives, indirectly boosting the demand for environmentally friendly melamine [6]. - Long-term success in the melamine industry will depend on optimizing capacity, upgrading technology, and expanding demand [6].

Industry Overview - The upstream n-propanol has seen significant price increases due to anti-dumping policies limiting imports, slow domestic capacity expansion, and new acetic acid propyl ester production capacity leading to raw material competition [1][10] - The demand in traditional sectors such as coatings and inks is being squeezed by environmentally friendly alternatives, while emerging applications have not fully released their incremental demand, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches and market price fluctuations [1][10] - In 2024, China's acetic acid propyl ester production and demand are projected to be 322,000 tons and 359,000 tons, respectively, with international trade frictions and rising regional logistics costs further disrupting market balance [1][10] Acetic Acid Propyl Ester Industry Development Overview - Acetic acid propyl ester (C5H10O2) is a fast-drying solvent with low irritation, widely used in various fields including chemical industry, food processing, and high-end fragrance production [2][3] - The industry is focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and promoting low-carbon technologies to enhance competitiveness, with a product structure shifting towards high-purity, low-toxicity specialty solvents [12][18] Industry Policy Background - China's acetic acid propyl ester industry policy framework emphasizes anti-dumping measures to protect domestic n-propanol supply chain security, reducing import dependency risks while pushing downstream companies to strengthen raw material self-sufficiency and process energy-saving technology research [4][10] Industry Chain - The acetic acid propyl ester industry chain in China relies on acetic acid and n-propanol as core raw materials, achieving large-scale supply through a mature petrochemical and coal chemical system [6][10] - The manufacturing segment is concentrated in East and South China, with leading companies adopting solid acid catalysts and continuous esterification processes to enhance production efficiency [6][10] Current Industry Status - The acetic acid propyl ester industry in China is experiencing structural overcapacity, with production capacity growth significantly outpacing production and demand growth [10][12] - The actual production is constrained by upstream n-propanol supply shortages and environmental production limits, leading to low capacity utilization rates [10][12] Competitive Landscape - The acetic acid propyl ester industry in China features a competitive landscape dominated by leading companies and regional clusters, with vertical integration and technological innovation as core competitive factors [16][18] - Major companies include Ningbo Yongshun, Nanjing Nuoao, Nantong Baichuan, Kaixin Chemical, and Nanjing Rongxin, focusing on green production process upgrades and high-end application development [16][17] Industry Development Trends - The acetic acid propyl ester industry is accelerating towards green and high-end transformation, driven by environmental policies that promote low-carbon energy-saving technology innovations [18] - The market competition is evolving towards technological barriers and globalization, with domestic leaders enhancing high-end product R&D capabilities through international cooperation [18]