人工智能芯片业
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每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-11-12)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-11-12 13:19
Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs estimates that the U.S. will lose approximately 50,000 non-farm jobs in October, marking the largest decline since 2020, with job growth tracking slowing from 85,000 in September to 50,000 [1] - The Dutch International Group suggests that the downward space for U.S. long-term Treasury yields is limited, as the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.1%, which is not particularly high [1] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach its highest level since 2011 this year and next, with significant political or financial market risks potentially pushing gold prices to a target of $4,700 per ounce [1] Group 2: Currency and Political Risks - The Dutch Bank reports that the politicization of U.S. institutions under the Trump administration poses a risk to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, as the trustworthiness of the U.S. reserve system is in question [2] - The Dutch Bank also highlights that the rise of far-right parties in the UK could negatively impact the pound and the bond market, as these parties may exert similar political pressure on the Bank of England as seen with the Federal Reserve in the U.S. [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI and Consumer Markets - CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization in identifying business turning point opportunities for 2026, with a focus on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [6] - CITIC JianTou reports that domestic AI chip manufacturers are entering a high-growth phase, with a focus on cooling, PCB, and power supply sectors, as well as the acceleration of application commercialization by companies like OpenAI [6] - CMB International advises investors to cautiously navigate the domestic automotive sector, anticipating a surge in vehicle sales due to policy adjustments, while remaining aware of potential short-term volatility [7]