突发！特朗普威胁11月1日起对华额外加征100%关税 当地时间10月10日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发文宣布，将从11月1日起对中国输美商品加征100%的额外关税（在现有关税基础上）。特朗普表 示，这一税率"远高于目前中方所支付的任何关税水平"。同日，他还宣称美国将对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制。 他写道："鉴于中方这一前所未见的立场，且该关税仅代表美国，自2025年11月1日起（或更早，具体将视中国的后续行动而定），将对所有中国输美商品 加征100%的关税，该税率远高于现行标准。" 同日他又说，如果中国撤销对稀土新出口管制的计划，他可能会放弃关税威胁。"我们得看看会发生什么。这就是我把日期定在11月1日的原因。" 今年的APEC峰会将于10月31日至11月1日在韩国庆州举行，此前特朗普已经表示，他将在峰会期间与中方领导人会晤，并推动达成TikTok协议，还要专门 讨论恢复美国大豆订单的问题。 而11月10日，关税休战协议将到期。 墨西哥暂缓批准对中国商品加征50%关税的提案！ 墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆和莫雷纳副手里卡多·蒙雷亚尔表示，墨西哥将推迟议会讨论对来自中国和其他亚洲国家的近1500种产品征收 ...

美国铝供应链为何存在短板？ 万能金属 易拉罐、牙膏软管、铝箔纸，铝制品在生活中非常常见。 最近，一则消息，轰动美国汽车行业。 美国铝业巨头诺维利斯公司（Novelis）位于纽约州奥斯威戈的工厂，因火灾事故预计停产至明年初。 作为美国汽车业的核心铝材供应商，该工厂承担着全美约40%的汽车用铝板原料供应，停产将直接冲击福特等主流车企的生产节奏。 被誉为"万能金属"的铝对制造业有多重要？ 正因为很常见，很多人忽视了铝对制造业的重要性。 铝，被誉为制造业的"万能金属"。 铝具备轻量化、高强度、耐腐蚀、易加工、导电导热性、可回收性六大核心优势，使其成为从基础工业到高端制造的核心材料，广泛应用于汽车、航空航 天、电子、建筑、包装、新能源等关键领域。 铝合金占C919飞机总净质量的65% 特别是，铝能够满足当前制造业对"高效、低成本、可持续"的核心需求。 这让铝的用量，不降反增。 最典型的，便是新能源汽车行业。 众所周知，汽车车身重量越轻，耗能越低。 新能源汽车携带沉重的电池包（通常重达400-600公斤），车身重量比燃油车重。 研究表明，车辆重量每减少10%，续航里程可增加约6%-8%。 根据世界金属统计局（WBMS）最 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, with limited short-term economic impact expected, as most losses are projected to be recovered post-shutdown[1] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone rose to 6.3% in September, higher than the expected 6.2%[25] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, is expected to continue a loose fiscal and monetary policy, impacting market dynamics positively[28] Employment Data - In September, ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 52,000[6] - Revelio Labs reported an increase of 60,000 jobs in September, slightly above market expectations, indicating a mixed employment landscape[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.77% and the Nasdaq up 1.24% from September 30 to October 6[2] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index surged by 6.70% following the election of Kishi Sanae, reflecting investor optimism[2] Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with market probabilities for a 25 basis point cut in October and December rising significantly[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to maintaining current interest rates despite rising unemployment and inflation data[25] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold rising by 2.80% and silver by 3.95% during the same period[2] - Oil prices experienced a slight decline of 1.09%, while natural gas prices increased by 1.63%[2] Risks and Uncertainties - There is a risk of an unexpected degree of economic recession overseas, which could impact global markets[2]

今天，我们把视野重新拉回到美国广告市场。 这不仅是全球体量最大、生态最成熟的广告市场，也始终是判断产业节奏与媒介演进的一个风向标。无论是预算回暖还是平台博弈，美国市场的每一次调 整，往往都会在某些层面，提前映射出全球广告行业的未来走向。 如果说过去五年，我们谈广告更习惯从技术平台、媒介趋势和消费者触点出发，那么如今，行业本身也成了一个决定广告结构的变量。 哪些行业在持续加码、谁在主动收缩，这些策略背后映射的，是这个行业所处的周期。 从金融到电信，从快消到汽车，在美国市场，每一行业的广告支出是增长模型、用户逻辑与媒介选择的再分配。 所以，与其说我们在看广告行业的趋势，不如说是在看各个行业如何重新定义"广告"在其增长路径中的位置。 而这，正是我想在这篇文章里讨论的： 在看似全面复苏的美国广告市场下，不同行业之间，究竟呈现出怎样的分化节奏？ | | % of total media | Industry ad | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ad spending | spending | % change | | Retail | 26.3% | $108.79 | 5.4% ...

Group 1: Macro Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macro policy is expected to be intensified and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [2] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for two months, while the procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, suggesting improved production activities [6] - The new orders index for manufacturing increased to 49.7%, indicating a stabilization in market demand, while the new export orders index rose to 47.8%, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [6][8] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, and the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [7] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly in sectors like food processing, automotive, and aerospace [8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction sector showing slight improvement, while the service sector experienced a minor decline [11][12]

Group 1: Historical Context of Manufacturing - The rise of manufacturing in both the UK and the US was driven by market expansion, following the logic of "market first, industry later" [3] - The UK became a trade center for cotton textiles in the 17th century, with exports increasing from 12,500 pieces in 1614 to 877,789 pieces by 1700, a nearly 70-fold increase [9] - The US experienced rapid population growth in the 19th century, increasing nearly tenfold from 1800 to 1900, which fueled domestic demand for manufacturing [20] Group 2: Decline of US Manufacturing - The US manufacturing sector has faced two significant declines in supply chain support: the first in the 1980s, primarily in machinery and automotive industries, and the second from the 2010s onward across nearly all manufacturing categories [4] - By the late 20th century, the US manufacturing share of global output remained around 30%, but has since been declining due to increased competition from other countries [32] - The US has lost significant comparative advantages in core manufacturing sectors such as machinery, general chemicals, and electronics, while gaining in pharmaceuticals and energy-related sectors [49] Group 3: Factors Contributing to Manufacturing Resilience - The US historically maintained a diverse industrial base and high export diversity, covering nearly all manufacturing categories, which provided resilience against market fluctuations [34] - The high level of supply chain integration in the US allowed for a complete domestic supply chain in many core industries until the late 20th century [40] - The US manufacturing sector benefited from a dual advantage of resource exports and manufactured goods, allowing it to maintain a strong position in global trade [36]

9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示，9月份制 造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非制造业 商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 9月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50%，环比下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点。中国物流与采购联合会 副会长何辉认为，9月份，商务活动指数较上月下降，但仍稳定在50%，与去年同期持平，显示非制造 业经营活动保持平稳。 分析指出，生产端和企业采购活动显现恢复迹象，稳增长政策效果正进一步显现。同期，非制造业运行 保持平稳，其中金融业商务活动指数升至60%以上，且好于去年同期，为经济回升提供了有利的金融环 境。不过，分析也指出，市场需求不足仍是当前核心挑战，制造业订单类指数均处于荣枯线以下，同时 建筑业活动偏弱，反映出经济复苏的基础尚需加固。展望四季度，在宏观政策加力，节假日消费、项目 发力及企业乐观预期的共同推动下，宏观经济有望继续向好回升。 制造业PMI连续两个月上升 9月份制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续两个月上升。中 ...

Group 1: Tourism and Travel - The total cross-regional population flow during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday is expected to exceed 2.36 billion people, with an average daily flow of approximately 295 million, representing a 3.2% increase compared to the same period last year [1][1] - Domestic and international tourism is showing strong momentum, with cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Chongqing expected to surpass last year's tourism levels [1][1] Group 2: Metals Industry - Eight departments have issued a plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual increase of 5% in industry value added and a recycling metal output exceeding 20 million tons [1][1] - The plan emphasizes enhancing the application of rare metals and accelerating the application verification of high-end products in emerging industries such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [1][1] Group 3: Food Safety Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released new regulations to strengthen food safety supervision for catering service chain enterprises, which will take effect on December 1, 2025 [1][1] - The regulations require a tiered management approach based on the number of stores and emphasize the responsibilities of headquarters in managing food safety [1][1] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The global trade friction index rose from 92 in June to 110 in July, indicating an increase in trade tensions, with the monetary value of trade friction measures rising by 6.6% year-on-year and 27.6% month-on-month [1][1] - The latest ETF scale has reached 5.5 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with 115 ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale [1][1] Group 5: Investment and Strategic Partnerships - Nanjing Pharmaceutical has signed a strategic investment agreement with Baiyunshan and Guangyao Phase II Fund, involving capital cooperation and distribution channel collaboration [1][1] - Shanghai Future Industry Fund has successfully expanded its scale from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan, focusing on advanced fields such as controlled nuclear fusion and quantum computing [1][1]

Domestic Macro - The State Council discussed the "Banking Supervision Law (Revised Draft)" on September 19, 2025, emphasizing fair competition among various business entities [6][16] - On September 22, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference highlighting achievements in the financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with total banking assets nearing 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally [6][16] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 24, marking a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month, continuing a trend of increased liquidity for seven consecutive months [6][16] Industry Policy - The National Healthcare Security Administration released the 11th batch of drug procurement documents on September 20, 2025 [7][17] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 22, setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry over the next two years [7][17] - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued guidelines to promote digital consumption on September 23, proposing 14 specific measures, including trials for smart connected vehicles [7][18] Local Policy - Shanghai announced adjustments to its housing property tax policy on September 19, 2025, exempting first-time homebuyers and second homes under certain conditions for residents with residence permits [8][19] - Sanya implemented a plan for affordable rental housing on September 21, 2025, with rent prices guided by the government [8][19] - Tianjin will initiate a pilot program for real estate trust property registration on September 25, 2025, aimed at revitalizing existing assets [8][19] Overseas Dynamics - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% on September 19, 2025, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [9][20] - The European Commission approved a new round of sanctions against Russia on September 19, 2025, targeting energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [9][20] - The U.S. government announced a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and related products on September 24, 2025, as part of a trade agreement [9][20]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policies - The United States has finalized a tariff agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts starting August 1, while certain pharmaceuticals, aircraft, and metals will be exempt from tariffs starting September 1 [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra expressed dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not establishing a clear agenda for interest rate cuts, advocating for a reduction of 100-150 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve official Daly fully supports the recent interest rate cut and suggests that further policy adjustments may be necessary to restore price stability while supporting the labor market [1] - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, depending on the trajectory of inflation and current signs of labor market weakness [1] Group 3: Housing Market - In August, new home sales in the U.S. reached an annualized total of 800,000 units, significantly exceeding the expected 650,000 units, marking a 20.5% month-over-month increase, the fastest growth since early 2022 [1] - The inventory of unsold new homes fell to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year [1] Group 4: Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.37% to 46,121.28 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw declines of 0.28% and 0.33%, respectively [4] - COMEX gold and silver futures dropped by 1.24% and 1.11%, respectively [5] Group 5: Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 2.21% to $64.81 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.93% to $68.26 per barrel [6]