Business Outlook - The overall short-term business outlook for large enterprises in Hong Kong is expected to remain stable in Q1 2026, with a slight decrease in recruitment intentions [1] - The proportion of respondents expecting better business conditions in Q1 2026 is 11%, slightly down from 13% in Q4 2025, while those expecting worse conditions decreased from 15% to 14% [2] Industry Analysis - Most industries anticipate that business conditions in Q1 2026 will either worsen or remain unchanged compared to Q4 2025, particularly in the construction and accommodation sectors, where a significant number of respondents expect a decline [2] - In contrast, the financial and insurance sectors have a higher proportion of respondents expecting improved business conditions compared to those expecting a decline [2] Business Output - Overall, respondents expect business/output volume in Q1 2026 to decrease or remain unchanged compared to Q4 2025, especially in the accommodation and construction sectors [4] - Conversely, a larger number of respondents in the financial and insurance sectors anticipate an increase in business volume compared to Q4 2025 [4] Employment - In half of the surveyed industries, respondents expect the number of employees in Q1 2026 to remain stable compared to Q4 2025; however, a significant number in the construction sector expect a decrease [5] - In the manufacturing and real estate sectors, more respondents expect an increase in employment than those expecting a decrease [5] Pricing - Most industries expect the prices of goods/services in Q1 2026 to remain stable compared to Q4 2025; however, in the construction sector, a larger number of respondents anticipate a decrease in bidding prices [6]

Group 1 - The overall local GDP of Hong Kong increased by 3.8% in Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year, up from a 3.1% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The value added by all service activities rose by 3.1% in Q3 2025, compared to a 3.4% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The value added by import and export trade, wholesale and retail industries increased by 5.1% in Q3 2025, down from a 6.1% increase in Q2 2025 [1] Group 2 - The accommodation and food services sector saw a decline in value added by 1.3% in Q3 2025, compared to a 0.6% decline in Q2 2025 [1] - The transportation, warehousing, postal, and courier services sector's value added increased by 2.3% in Q3 2025, down from a 5.5% increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The information and communications sector's value added remained relatively unchanged in Q3 2025, compared to a 0.4% increase in Q2 2025 [1] Group 3 - The financial and insurance sector's value added rose by 5.4% in Q3 2025, consistent with the increase in Q2 2025 [1] - The real estate, professional, and business services sector recorded a 0.4% increase in value added in Q3 2025, recovering from a 0.7% decline in Q2 2025 [2] - The public administration, social, and personal services sector's value added increased by 1.9% in Q3 2025, down from a 2.3% increase in Q2 2025 [2] Group 4 - The local manufacturing sector's value added increased by 5.4% in Q3 2025, compared to a 0.9% increase in Q2 2025 [2] - The electricity, gas, and water supply and waste management sector's value added decreased by 0.9% in Q3 2025, following a 0.4% increase in Q2 2025 [2] - The construction sector's value added declined by 7.0% in Q3 2025, following a 10.4% decline in Q2 2025 [3]

Economic Overview - The overall local GDP in Hong Kong for Q2 2025 increased by 3.1% compared to the same period last year, slightly up from a 3.0% increase in Q1 2025 [1] Service Industry Analysis - The total value added by all service activities rose by 3.4% in Q2 2025, compared to a 2.5% increase in Q1 2025 [1] - The value added by import and export trade, wholesale, and retail industries increased by 6.1% in Q2 2025, up from a 4.2% increase in Q1 2025 [1] - The accommodation and food services sector saw a decline of 1.8% in value added in Q2 2025, consistent with a similar decline in Q1 2025 [1] - The transportation, warehousing, postal, and courier services sector increased by 5.6% in Q2 2025, compared to a 2.6% increase in Q1 2025 [1] - The information and communications sector's value added rose by 1.1% in Q2 2025, remaining stable compared to Q1 2025 [1] Financial and Professional Services - The financial and insurance sector's value added increased by 5.3% in Q2 2025, up from a 4.2% increase in Q1 2025 [2] - The real estate, professional, and business services sector recorded a slight decline of 0.2% in Q2 2025, an improvement from a 0.5% decline in Q1 2025 [2] - The public administration, social, and personal services sector increased by 2.2% in Q2 2025, compared to a 1.7% increase in Q1 2025 [2] Manufacturing and Utilities - The local manufacturing sector's value added rose by 0.9% in Q2 2025, compared to a 0.7% increase in Q1 2025 [2] - The electricity, gas, water supply, and waste management sector saw a 0.2% increase in value added in Q2 2025, recovering from a 1.3% decline in Q1 2025 [2] Construction Industry - The construction sector experienced a decline of 8.7% in value added in Q2 2025, following a 4.9% decline in Q1 2025 [3]

Business Outlook - The overall expectation for business conditions in Q3 2025 is less optimistic, with 10% of respondents anticipating better conditions compared to 18% expecting worse conditions, indicating a negative sentiment [1] - Compared to Q2 2025, the proportion of respondents expecting better business conditions in Q3 2025 has slightly increased from 9% to 10%, while the proportion expecting worse conditions remains stable at 18% [1] Industry Analysis - In several industries, respondents generally expect a decline in business/output volume for Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, particularly in construction, transportation, warehousing and express services, import and export trade, accommodation and food services, and retail [2] Employment Expectations - Overall, respondents expect employment numbers to remain relatively unchanged in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025. However, in the information and communications sector, more respondents anticipate a decline in employment numbers, while in the real estate sector, more expect an increase [3] Pricing Expectations - Most industries expect product prices/service charges to remain stable in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025. Notably, in the construction industry, a significant number of respondents expect a decrease in bidding prices [4] - A government spokesperson noted a slight improvement in the overall short-term business outlook for large enterprises compared to the previous quarter, with stable hiring intentions [4]

Core Insights - The average wage rate in Hong Kong increased by 3.5% year-on-year in March 2025, with approximately 62% of companies reporting wage increases, while 34% experienced declines [1][2] - After adjusting for inflation, the real average wage rate rose by 1.6% in March 2025 [1][2] - The nominal average salary index for employed individuals increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with a real increase of 1.6% after accounting for inflation [1][2] Industry Changes - All selected industry categories recorded year-on-year increases in nominal wage indices ranging from 3.1% to 4.1% in March 2025 [2] - Real wage indices across all selected industries also saw year-on-year increases, varying from 1.1% to 2.1% in March 2025 [2] - The nominal average salary index for all selected industries in the first quarter of 2025 increased between 2.0% and 3.9% year-on-year, while real average salary indices rose between 0.4% and 2.3% [2] Wage Index Data - The nominal wage index for the manufacturing sector was +3.2% in March 2025, with a real increase of +1.2% [3] - The wholesale and retail trade sector recorded a nominal increase of +3.1% and a real increase of +1.1% [3] - The transportation sector saw a nominal increase of +3.5% and a real increase of +1.5% [3] - The accommodation and food services sector had a nominal increase of +3.8% and a real increase of +1.8% [3] - The financial and insurance activities sector recorded a nominal increase of +4.0% and a real increase of +2.0% [3] - The real wage index for professional and business services was +2.1% with a nominal increase of +4.1% [3] - The personal services sector experienced a nominal increase of +3.9% and a real increase of +1.9% [3]