Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Core Insights - The average wage rate in Hong Kong increased by 3.5% year-on-year in March 2025, with approximately 62% of companies reporting wage increases, while 34% experienced declines [1][2] - After adjusting for inflation, the real average wage rate rose by 1.6% in March 2025 [1][2] - The nominal average salary index for employed individuals increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with a real increase of 1.6% after accounting for inflation [1][2] Industry Changes - All selected industry categories recorded year-on-year increases in nominal wage indices ranging from 3.1% to 4.1% in March 2025 [2] - Real wage indices across all selected industries also saw year-on-year increases, varying from 1.1% to 2.1% in March 2025 [2] - The nominal average salary index for all selected industries in the first quarter of 2025 increased between 2.0% and 3.9% year-on-year, while real average salary indices rose between 0.4% and 2.3% [2] Wage Index Data - The nominal wage index for the manufacturing sector was +3.2% in March 2025, with a real increase of +1.2% [3] - The wholesale and retail trade sector recorded a nominal increase of +3.1% and a real increase of +1.1% [3] - The transportation sector saw a nominal increase of +3.5% and a real increase of +1.5% [3] - The accommodation and food services sector had a nominal increase of +3.8% and a real increase of +1.8% [3] - The financial and insurance activities sector recorded a nominal increase of +4.0% and a real increase of +2.0% [3] - The real wage index for professional and business services was +2.1% with a nominal increase of +4.1% [3] - The personal services sector experienced a nominal increase of +3.9% and a real increase of +1.9% [3]

各种内需相关指标也转为负值：服务业生产环比减少0.1%，其中专业、科学、技术生产减少3.6%，金 融及保险生产减少1.2%。零售销售减少0.9%。 半导体制造机械等机械类投资减少4.5%，设备投资减少0.4%，建设投资情况的竣工价值环比下滑 0.7%，连续2个月呈现减少趋势。（央视新闻） 据韩国统计厅5月30日公布的《4月产业活动动向》报告显示，今年4月韩国产业生产、消费和投资环比 均出现下滑。这是自今年1月以来，韩国首次出现三个指标同时下滑的情况。 根据《4月产业活动动向》报告，今年4月，韩国全产业生产指数为113.5，环比下滑0.8%。从具体项目 来看，受美国关税措施的影响，汽车生产减少4.2%，半导体生产减少2.9%。这是韩国汽车生产自去年 11月以来，时隔5个月再次呈现减少趋势，美国自4月3日开始对汽车加征25%的关税影响开始显现。韩 国银行分析指出，如果美国政府的关税政策持续，汽车将在韩国产业中遭受最大冲击。 ...