中信证券研报称，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放鸽派信号，预计美联储9月降息将是大概率 事件，叠加新关税框架的逐步清晰，以及此前的《大而美法案》（OBBBA法案）带来的财政刺激等， 料将推动市场主要尾部风险的消除，为美股科技板块创造出较为稳定、韧性的宏观环境，叠加板块自身 向上的经营周期等，我们持续看好美股科技板块未来6~12个月的投资机会，结构上首选业绩正进入周 期反转通道的应用软件、模拟芯片等子板快，并持续看好AI（计算芯片、HDD、先进制程）、互联网 （一线巨头）、Fintech等领域的投资机会，并谨慎看待缺乏明确业绩支撑的主题性板块。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]