到2026年2月，中美贸易摩擦已进入一个全新阶段。关税壁垒不断加码，供应链的调整也在持续进行。最初，很多人担心这场冲突会引发更大的危机，但实 际情况却揭示了双方经济的强大韧性，似乎并未如外界预测的那样崩塌。 面对外部压力，中国在过去几年加大了科技创新的投入，推动高质量发展，提升了高技术制造业的比重，并在内需方面做出了更多的努力。这些举措不仅增 强了经济的韧性，也让中国在面对挑战时更加从容。如今，站在2026年的节点上，可以明显看出，无论是中国还是美国，都已经具备了应对外部冲击的能 力。两国经济的韧性在这一轮博弈中得到了全面检验，且双方都在寻找各自的平衡点，努力应对这场贸易战带来的种种不确定性。 说到底，中美作为全球两大经济体，彼此之间的经贸关系虽然紧密，但并非不可或缺。中国凭借着完整的工业体系和强大的产能优势，成功维持了经济的平 稳运行。而美国则凭借其广阔的市场规模和强大的调整能力，也能应对这场贸易冲突带来的影响。经过这几年的博弈，双方都证明了这一点。到2025年，通 过多轮磋商，关税水平发生了阶段性调整和暂停，部分农产品采购也恢复到一定规模。尽管过程中充满波折，但这显示出对话和协商依然是两国务实的选 择。 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that despite severe economic sanctions imposed by the West, Russia has demonstrated remarkable economic resilience and adaptability, even outperforming many Western nations in certain aspects [1][3][5] - Russia's economy, which was previously underestimated, showed a surprising GDP growth of 3.5% in the first quarter following the sanctions, highlighting its unexpected strength [3][5] - The economic structure of Russia, which includes essential resources like oil, gas, and food, has proven to be more resilient compared to the luxury and high-end products offered by Western economies, which are more vulnerable in times of crisis [5][10] Group 2 - The sanctions have led to a shift in ownership of Western brands operating in Russia, allowing these businesses to continue functioning under new management, thus minimizing the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy [5][8] - The economic confrontation is characterized by mutual costs, where the industries of the sanctioning countries also suffer, indicating that the impact of sanctions is not one-sided [5][12] - The focus should not solely be on GDP growth but rather on the effective allocation of limited resources to achieve maximum economic output and resilience against risks, which is a fundamental aspect of economic theory [10][12]

Group 1 - The AlUla conference on emerging market economies 2026 will begin tomorrow, organized in partnership with the Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund, featuring high-level participation from economic decision-makers, finance ministers, central bank governors, and international financial institution leaders [1] - The conference is timely as the global economy undergoes profound transformations in international trade and financial systems, facing challenges such as slowing growth, increasing uncertainty, and mounting pressures on emerging market economies [2] - The conference aims to contribute to the development of an economic policy program for emerging market economies to support growth and prosperity while enhancing global economic stability [3] Group 2 - This year's conference theme is "Policies in a Context of Resetting International Trade and Financial Systems," highlighting rapid transformations in the global economy and the challenges and opportunities they present for emerging market economies [4] - The conference program focuses on key issues such as the restructuring of global trade amid geopolitical and economic changes, the dynamics of the international monetary and financial system, and the challenges facing monetary policy in an uncertain and structurally changing environment [5] - Additionally, the conference will address resilience and budgetary policy frameworks in a world subject to shocks, the role of public policies in strengthening economic resilience, and ways to stimulate private sector-led growth and productivity [6] Group 3 - The conference will conclude with discussions on enhancing the resilience of emerging market economies and economic transformation, reviewing key lessons learned, and defining measures to support international cooperation and policy coordination [7] - The AlUla conference aims to raise global awareness of the issues facing emerging market economies, highlight their central role in the global economy, and strengthen the presence of these issues on the international economic and media agenda [8]

当前经济不确定性有所下降，前景呈现改善迹象，但巴金认为潜在风险仍未消除。劳动力市场方面，招聘活动仍集中在少数行业，尚未实现全面均衡复苏； 通胀虽呈回落态势，但尚未触及2%的目标区间，若贸然大幅降息，可能导致通胀反弹，影响此前货币政策调整的成效。基于此，他认为货币政策应保持耐 心，避免调整节奏过快引发经济波动。 巴金还分析了经济韧性的支撑因素。2026年初以来，去年关税及其他政策变动带来的不确定性逐步消退，为经济稳定创造有利条件。结合企业反馈，整体需 求平稳，今年退税落地、汽油价格下跌及宽松货币环境将共同支撑经济。同时，美国消费者抵制企业转嫁关税成本的提价行为，有效抑制物价上涨，助力通 胀回落。 巴金提示，当前美国经济的需求韧性，在很大程度上依赖于人工智能基础设施投资与富裕消费者支出，且这两大支撑因素关联性较强。"这两个领域相互关 联，"他表示，若人工智能投资出现降温，可能对商业投资产生影响；而富裕阶层净资产若出现缩水，其消费能力将随之减弱，进而传导至整体需求，影响 经济韧性。这一判断也进一步支撑了其货币政策需谨慎的立场。 美联储内部围绕当前利率是否仍具限制性的讨论持续升温，官员在降息时机、幅度及政策谨慎度上的 ...

债券 2026 年 1 月 29 日 美联储那些事儿 美联储议息会议：就业市场显示企稳迹象 证券分析师 平安观点： 债 券 报 告 平安证券研究所投资评级： 债 券 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 LIULU979@pingan.com.cn 王佳萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525070002 WANGJIAMENG709@pingan.com.cn 26 年 1 月会议上，美联储决定保持政策利率在 3.5-3.75%不变，理事米兰和 沃勒投出反对票，认为应该降息 25BP。 美 联 储 会 议 声 明 变 动 主 要 有 两 处 。1） 对 经 济 增 速 的 描 述 从 温 和 "moderate"修改为稳健"solid"， 称 经 济活动增长稳健"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace"。2）就业方面，美联储称失业率出现了一些企稳的信号"the unemployment rate has shown some si ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a six-month high of 1.3789, driven by a weaker dollar, resilient UK economic data, and delayed interest rate cut expectations [1][2] - The UK economy shows resilience, with the composite PMI rising to 53.9 in January 2026, indicating accelerated business growth and warming demand, which suggests strong GDP growth in the first quarter [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US enhances the pound's advantage, with UK inflation rebounding to 3.4% in December, reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The weak US dollar index, which fell to 96.27, has contributed to the pound's strength, as funds shift towards GBP assets due to reduced safe-haven appeal of the dollar [2] - Several institutions have raised their forecasts for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with expectations of breaking through the 1.38 level and targeting 1.40, with NatWest predicting rates of 1.41 and 1.42 by mid and end of 2026 [2] - There are uncertainties surrounding the pound's trajectory, particularly due to political risks in the UK and internal divisions within the Bank of England regarding interest rate decisions [2][3]

加拿大：增强经济韧性 破解关税威胁 卡尼当天在加拿大首都渥太华一家超市宣布一系列经济新举措。针对美国总统特朗普近期对加拿大发出新一轮关税威胁，他表示，加拿大早就 意识到美国贸易政策变化及其对经济的影响，正通过加强国内建设和扩大贸易伙伴来适应这一变化。 加拿大总理卡尼。 图据央视新闻客户端 加拿大总理卡尼26日表示，加拿大正致力于增强经济韧性并推动贸易多元化，以减少对美国的依赖。 转自：成都日报锦观 卡尼宣布的新举措包括为2200万加拿大人减税、加速住房建设以及扩大社会保障项目。 新华社渥太华1月26日电（记者 林威） ...

铜冠金源期货：预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行 宏观方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，经济仍显示韧性，但地缘冲突影响持续，避险情绪升 温；油价遇阻力位回落。基本面上，美国对加拿大施压威胁加征100%关税，加总理表示并不寻求与中 国达成贸易协议，加菜籽远端进口仍有变数；当前澳菜籽到港，但同比偏少，短期国内偏紧格局不改， 支撑菜油大幅度走强。高频数据对马棕油产量减少，出口增加进一步确认，预计1月底库存将下滑，对 价格有提振。预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行。 宁证期货：短期棕榈油易涨难跌 1月27日盘中，棕榈油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9208.00元。截止发稿，棕榈油主力 合约报9202.00元，涨幅2.27%。 棕榈油期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行 宁证期货 短期棕榈油易涨难跌 中辉期货 棕榈油近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待 马来西亚最新出口数据公布，棕榈油出口环比涨幅均较此前1-20日下降；从产量来看，减产幅度同样不 及此前1-20日。但是加拿大与中国的贸易协定因美国而搁置，加菜籽依然无法进口，带动棕榈油价格走 强。 ...

卡尼当天在加拿大首都渥太华一家超市宣布一系列经济新举措。针对美国总统特朗普近期对加拿大发出 新一轮关税威胁，他表示，加拿大早就意识到美国贸易政策变化及其对经济的影响，正通过加强国内建 设和扩大贸易伙伴来适应这一变化。 经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，加拿大总理卡尼当地时间1月26日表示，加拿大正致力于增强经济 韧性并推动贸易多元化，以减少对美国的依赖。 卡尼宣布的新举措包括为2200万加拿大人减税、加速住房建设以及扩大社会保障项目。 ...

Core Insights - The UAE participated in a high-level dialogue during the 2026 World Economic Forum to discuss the role of soft power in enhancing economic resilience and rebuilding international trust [1] Group 1 - The dialogue was held for the first time in Davos, gathering multiple international leaders [1] - Participants highlighted that in the context of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and global perception changes, credible and forward-looking national strategies can enhance a country's soft power [1] - Soft power is viewed as an important strategic capital in the current global landscape [1]