记者丨金珊 编辑丨吴桂兴 周三（11月26日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.67%，标普500指数涨0.69%，纳指涨 0.82%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47427.12 | 23214.69 | 6812.61 | | +314.67 +0.67% +189.10 +0.82% +46.73 +0.69% | | | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7750.79 | 25314.00 | 6830.25 | | -2.46 -0.03% +228.50 +0.91% +48.75 +0.72% | | | 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为84.9%，维持利率不变的 概率为15.1%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为66.4%，维持利率不变的概率为 11.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为22.6%。 方德证券高级分析师廖偲琴提醒， 当前市场定价美联储12月降息25个基点为高概率事件，并 对2026年累计降息幅度预期达100–150个基点。但这一预期忽略了两大 ...

Group 1 - Major US tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rebounding over 1% after a previous drop of over 2%, while Facebook and Tesla saw slight declines, and Google fell over 1% [2] - Nvidia responded positively to competition from Google, asserting its continued supply to Google and claiming to be a generation ahead in the industry [2] - Oracle's stock rose over 4%, with Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick maintaining a buy rating and raising the target price from $335 to $375 [3] Group 2 - Cryptocurrency-related stocks in the US strengthened, with Robinhood rising nearly 8%, Cipher Mining up over 5%, and Coinbase increasing by nearly 2% [4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Li Auto and Vipshop both gaining over 3%, while Pinduoduo and Miniso increased by over 2.7% [4] - Li Auto reported third-quarter revenue of 27.4 billion yuan and a net loss of 620 million yuan, attributing losses to the MEGA recall event, which caused approximately 1.113 billion yuan in losses [4] Group 3 - Spot gold prices showed strong performance, reaching a daily high of nearly 1% at $4,170 before retreating to around $4,140 [5] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 220,000 [6]

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨曾静娇 11月26日，美股开盘上涨，截至北京时间23时，道琼斯指数涨0.30%，标普500指数涨0.28%，纳斯达克 综合指数涨0.26%。 | 微软(MICROSOFT | 482.590 | 1.17% | | --- | --- | --- | | MSFT.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 179.770 | 1.10% | | NVDA.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 230.160 | 0.21% | | AMZN.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 277.420 | 0.16% | | AAPL.O | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 635.010 | -0.19% | | META.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 418.121 | -0.30% | | TSLA.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET). | 319.197 | -1.37% | | GOOG.O | | | 甲骨文涨超4%，德意志银行分析师Brad Zelnick维持甲骨文买入评级，并将目标价从335美元上调至375 美元。 美股加 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨曾静娇 | 守大 | 8.270 | 3.50% | | --- | --- | --- | | BGM.O | | | | 新氧 | 2.965 | 3.31% | | SY.O | | | | 联合索威尔国际 | 1.610 | 3.21% | | LHSW.O | | | | 唯品会 | 19.860 | 3.06% | | VIPS.N | | | | 名创优品 | 19.750 | 2.76% | | MNSO.N | | | | 智能未来 | 2.940 | 2.08% | | AIFU.O | | | | METALPHA TECH | 2.960 | 2.07% | | MATH.O | | | | 满帮集团 | 11.150 | 1.64% | | YMM.N | | | | 老虎证券 | 8.640 | 1.77% | | TIGR.O | | | | 水滴公司 | 1.730 | 1.76% | | WDH.N | | | | 联掌门户 | 3.040 | 1.67% | | LZMH.O | | | 11月26日，美股开盘上涨，截至北京时间23时，道琼斯指数涨0.3 ...

在美国政府停摆超过一个月，两份非农就业报告连续缺席之后，终于市场在今晚将等到美国9月非农就业报告的公布，意味着美国数据公布开始趋向正常化 的开端。市场预期非农就业人数将增长5万（前值2.2万），失业率维持在4.3%，平均每小时工资月率维持在0.3%的温和增速。 今年大部分时间里，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的官员和经济学家都认为：美国就业市场正处于"低招聘、低解雇"的状态。而当前美联储官员之间的分歧日 益加剧，一些政策制定者警告称，就业风险如今已与通胀风险不相上下。 自年初以来，根据政府主要调查数据，家庭就业人数在截至8月份的几个月内每月减少约7.2万人，劳动力参与率有所下滑，职位空缺持续下降。截至10月 底，Indeed.com报告称，职位发布数量已跌至2021年以来的最低水平，几乎所有行业的职位空缺数量都同比下降。 ADP于11月5日发布的月度报告显示，在经历了前两个月的下滑之后，私营部门就业人数增加了4.2万人。劳工部网站公布的补充数据显示，截至10月18日当 周，首次申请失业救济人数为23.2万人，与9月中旬的水平大致持平。 基于9月份的数据是在美国政府停摆前，所以未能全然反映当前美国实际的就业市场变化， ...

关键问题在于，这个峰会对法国经济的贡献能有多少。无论马克龙如何运筹帷幄，都绕不开两个巨大的 现实障碍。一个是财政问题。法国长期奉行"自摇篮到坟墓"的高福利政策，政府开支占比在所有欧洲国 家里是最高之列。进入21世纪以来，法国经济一直处于不温不火的状态，高福利带来的结果就是财政收 入逐渐入不敷出。加上法国长久以来缺乏妥协的传统，财政问题逐渐成为当今各方矛盾的焦点——这就 像一颗定时炸弹，如果不去解决，早晚会出问题，但如果谁要去试图"拆弹"，就会成为"全民公敌"。另 一个是政治碎片化问题。这一现象并非法国独有，只是法国现在面临的问题尤为严重。法国国民议会目 前深陷党派斗争，尽管马克龙不会提前下台，但至少到2027年总统选举前，这种碎片化状况不太可能好 转。分裂、对抗的政治格局很难成为经济发展的助力，而是阻碍。 虽然法国政府中有一些乐观的声音，但法国的经济并非没有问题，而且问题还不小。一是其经济模式的 运行过程与市场和企业面临的实际情况有所脱节。二是其劳动生产率虽相对较高，但长时间停滞不前， 显著低于美国和德国两个发达经济体。三是缺乏将创新转化为生产的有效渠道，在保护与开放之间难以 平衡，也一定程度导致技术人才流失 ...

Core Viewpoints - The challenges lie in the overspending of consumer demand and the impact of clearing accounts on investment, while the highlights are the recovery of service consumption and the alleviation of debt issues [2][66] Production - The reduction in working days and high inventory from previous periods have constrained production, leading to a significant decline in industrial value-added growth, which fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% in October [9][33] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable decline in production growth, with a marginal drop of 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% in October [33][66] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth in October was slightly down to 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in goods retail, which fell by 0.5 percentage points [6][52] - The "old-for-new" consumption model saw significant declines in categories such as automobiles (-8.2 percentage points to -6.6%) and home appliances (-17.9 percentage points to -14.6%) [17][66] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income improving by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% [17][66] Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a substantial decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% in October [19][67] - The impact of land acquisition costs and corporate account clearing has significantly affected investment, with other expenses dropping by 18.8 percentage points to -14.3% [19][67] - Manufacturing and service sector investments have also seen considerable declines, indicating ongoing effects from corporate account clearing and anti-involution policies [19][67] Real Estate - Demand-side sales and housing prices remain weak, with new housing sales area and sales amount dropping significantly by 15.1 percentage points and 17.1 percentage points, respectively [24][67] - The supply side shows a continued decline in credit financing for real estate companies, with new starts and completions also experiencing significant drops [24][67] Summary - Short-term factors are disrupting the economy, but their impact is weakening at the margins; policies are actively countering these effects, and the economy is expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [31][68] - Potential risks include overspending in consumer demand and the impact of account clearing on investment, alongside structural highlights such as the alleviation of debt effects on investment [31][68]

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari：对12月FOMC降息与否还没有形成个人倾向性。经济表现出韧 性，要求美联储在10月份暂停降息。企业对2026年非常乐观。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's asset prices are undergoing a significant revaluation driven by multiple factors, marking the beginning of a new era for the Chinese capital market [1] - The institutional opening of China's capital market is deepening, reshaping global capital allocation logic, as evidenced by the Shanghai Stock Exchange's focus on expanding cross-border investment channels and enhancing international competitiveness [3][4] - China's economic resilience is providing a solid foundation for asset value revaluation, with GDP growth expected to remain around 5% in 2026, and the attractiveness of RMB assets in global capital allocation is increasing [4][5] Group 2 - New growth drivers are emerging, with innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and globalization creating diverse investment paths that expand valuation space for Chinese assets [6][7] - The innovation sector, particularly in AI and new consumption, is becoming a hotspot for global capital, while mergers and acquisitions are enhancing asset quality through industry consolidation [7][8] - The globalization of Chinese enterprises is accelerating, broadening revenue sources and reconstructing the valuation system on a global scale, indicating that the revaluation of Chinese assets is not just a forecast but a current reality [8]

Core Insights - Nomura emphasizes China's focus on resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, driven by significant investments and industrial policies, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence [1][5] - The core drivers for the A-share market's future growth are policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, with AI and high-value exports identified as key themes for the upcoming year [4][1] Group 1: Global Economic Resilience - Despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, the global economy shows significant resilience, supported by the AI revolution, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Economic inequality is becoming more pronounced, with low-income families and small businesses struggling, posing challenges for policymakers to maintain global economic stability [2] Group 2: Asian Economic Outlook - The technology sector in Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to perform well, driven by strong demand for AI and a supercycle in storage chips, while non-tech sectors face challenges due to limited spillover effects from AI and increased tariffs on labor-intensive industries [3] - The region's solid economic fundamentals and new growth drivers, such as supply chain shifts and increased AI investment, position India, the Philippines, and Malaysia as some of the fastest-growing economies in the next decade [3] Group 3: A-share Market Dynamics - A-share valuations have expanded over the past year but remain reasonable when considering the equity risk premium in a declining risk-free rate environment [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes long-term productivity upgrades and technological transformation, which will catalyze structural market trends, although improvements in earnings fundamentals are still needed [4][7] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector Developments - The trend towards a self-sufficient AI supply chain in China is becoming more evident, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on developing large language models and generative AI applications [8] - The competitive landscape in the instant retail sector is expected to stabilize, potentially alleviating losses for companies expanding in this area [8] Group 5: Entertainment Sector Insights - The online entertainment sector, particularly online gaming and music services, is expected to remain resilient, while long-form video content may continue to lag due to shifts in consumer preferences towards short videos [9]