Group 1 - The core message of the Iranian New Year addresses by Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei and President Pezeshkian emphasizes the importance of national unity and economic resilience under the slogan "Achieving Economic Resilience under the Protection of National Unity and Security" [3] - Khamenei reflected on the past year's challenges, including two wars and one uprising, expressing gratitude to the people for their resistance against oppression and highlighting the need to address economic weaknesses to safeguard livelihoods and improve infrastructure [3] - Pezeshkian stated that Iran does not wish to engage in conflict with Islamic countries and neighboring states in West Asia, condemning the actions of the US and Israel as heinous atrocities aimed at creating division in the region [4][5] Group 2 - Khamenei reiterated the commitment to maintaining friendly relations with neighboring countries and offered assistance in improving relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while denying any involvement of Iranian forces in recent attacks in Turkey and Oman [4] - Pezeshkian called for the establishment of an Islamic country forum in West Asia to promote dialogue and coordination, aiming to enhance regional stability and unity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's consideration of gradually de-escalating military actions against Iran, indicating that the U.S. is close to achieving its objectives in the region [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Military Strategy - Trump stated that the U.S. is contemplating a gradual reduction of military operations targeting the Iranian regime in the Middle East, emphasizing that they are very close to achieving their goals [2][4]. - The U.S. will no longer take responsibility for the security and patrol of the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that other nations using the strait should assume this role, with the U.S. willing to provide support if invited [4]. - The U.S. aims to completely eliminate Iran's missile capabilities, defense industrial base, and naval and air forces, while ensuring Iran does not come close to obtaining nuclear capabilities [5]. Group 2: U.S.-Israel Relations - Trump believes that when the U.S. decides to end its conflict with Iran, Israel will also be ready to conclude its involvement in the conflict [6][7]. - He expressed disinterest in a ceasefire while actively destroying the opposing forces, indicating a strong military stance against Iran [7]. Group 3: Military Deployment and Casualties - The U.S. is deploying thousands of additional troops, including 2,500 Marines and three naval vessels, to the Middle East as part of its military operations against Iran [8]. - Since the commencement of military actions against Iran, 232 U.S. service members have been injured, with the majority suffering from traumatic brain injuries [8]. Group 4: Iran's Response - Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized the importance of national unity and economic resilience in his New Year address, highlighting the need to address economic challenges amid external pressures [10][11]. - Khamenei condemned the use of Iran's economic weaknesses by enemies and reiterated the commitment to maintain friendly relations with neighboring countries [11].

Group 1 - The core message of the Iranian Supreme Leader's New Year address emphasizes achieving economic resilience under the protection of national unity and security [1] - The leader reflects on the past year's challenges, including two wars and one uprising, and expresses gratitude to those who resisted oppression and supported the government [1] - The Iranian leadership acknowledges the exploitation of economic and management weaknesses by adversaries and stresses the importance of improving livelihoods and infrastructure to counter economic warfare [1] Group 2 - The Iranian Supreme Leader has committed to implementing a comprehensive solution to address economic challenges [1] - There is a clear intention to maintain friendly relations with neighboring countries, with a willingness to assist in improving relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan [1] - The leader denies any involvement of Iranian forces in recent attacks in Turkey and Oman, attributing them to adversaries aiming to create regional divisions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed no obvious trend. The government work report met market expectations, and the hedging sentiment and inflation - rising expectations brought by the US - Iran conflict counteracted each other, keeping bond yields stable. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will remain around 1.8% until there is a clear signal of price recovery [1][13]. - The strong performance of the US economic data, including the significant rebound of the February ISM manufacturing PMI and the decline in the January unemployment rate, challenges the market's expectation of a sharp economic slowdown. The market's expectation of the Fed's short - term interest rate cut remains cautious, and US Treasury yields may face upward pressure [14][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoint 3.1.1 Analysis of the Trend of Treasury Bond Yields - From February 28th to March 6th, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 decreased by 0.2bp from 1.79% to 1.788%. During the week, the yield fluctuated slightly due to factors such as market sentiment, overseas events, and policy announcements [1][9]. 3.1.2 Impact of the Government Work Report - The quantitative indicators in the government work report, such as the GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5% and the CPI increase target of 2% in 2026, met market expectations. The deficit rate of 4% and local government bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan remained the same as in 2025, with an additional 300 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments deployed earlier. The monetary policy continued the moderately loose tone, hinting at "precision drip - irrigation" [13]. 3.1.3 Impact of the US Economic Data - The US February ISM manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly to 52.6, much higher than the expected 48.5, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing expansion. The January unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, and non - farm employment increased moderately, showing a stable labor market. This data combination weakens the market's urgency for the Fed to cut interest rates in the short term, and US Treasury yields may face upward pressure [14][17]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from March 2nd to March 6th, 2026, the total net investment was - 136.34 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed certain fluctuations, and the issuance and yield changes of interest - rate bonds were also presented [28][30]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices showed mixed trends, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices generally declined. The prices of commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also had corresponding changes, and the prices of US Treasury bonds and some international financial products showed different trends [46][64]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market from March 2nd to March 6th, 2026, 30 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 272.484 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 17.261 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 255.224 billion yuan. Six provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and three provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts [74][83]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 56.63 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 62.328 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.10%. The top three provinces with active local government bond trading were Guangdong, Hunan, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [94]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - The report presents the local government bond issuance plan for this month, including the planned issuance amounts of different provinces and cities on different dates [99]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 338 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 270.632 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 173.435 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 97.196 billion yuan. The net financing amount increased by 187.285 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 24.248 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 72.949 billion yuan [101]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing increased by 8.36bp, and that of medium - term notes increased by 31.82bp [113]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market this week was 603.531 billion yuan. The trading volume of different bond types and ratings varied, and the yields of various bonds showed a general downward trend [115]. 3.4.4 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally declined, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds also showed a differentiated trend [122][127][132]. 3.4.5 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds decreased overall, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [137][140][144]. 3.4.6 Trading Activity - The report lists the top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type this week, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [146][147]. 3.4.7 Issuer's Credit Rating Changes - The issuer of Kunming Urban Construction Investment and Development Co., Ltd. had its credit rating raised from AA to AA+ by United Credit Rating Co., Ltd. on March 6, 2026, with a stable outlook [152].

Group 1 - The US-China trade friction has entered a new phase by February 2026, with increasing tariff barriers and ongoing supply chain adjustments, revealing the economic resilience of both sides [1] - China's crude oil import sources have diversified significantly, with Russia maintaining a leading position, accounting for nearly 20% of imports in 2024, while US crude oil's market share is projected to shrink to about 1.7% in 2024 and nearly zero by 2025 [3] - Brazil has become China's largest soybean supplier, with imports exceeding 63.7 million tons from January to September 2025, and total soybean imports for the year reaching 111.83 million tons [3] Group 2 - Despite a 20% decrease in exports to the US in 2025, China's overall trade surplus reached a record high of $1.2 trillion, with exports to Southeast Asia, the EU, Africa, and Latin America increasing [4] - The US has faced rising import costs due to high tariffs, impacting small and medium-sized enterprises and consumers, leading to adjustments in procurement channels [6] - Both China and the US have demonstrated their ability to withstand external shocks, with China enhancing technological innovation and high-quality development, while the US has leveraged its market size and adjustment capabilities [8][9]

Group 1 - The core argument is that despite severe economic sanctions imposed by the West, Russia has demonstrated remarkable economic resilience and adaptability, even outperforming many Western nations in certain aspects [1][3][5] - Russia's economy, which was previously underestimated, showed a surprising GDP growth of 3.5% in the first quarter following the sanctions, highlighting its unexpected strength [3][5] - The economic structure of Russia, which includes essential resources like oil, gas, and food, has proven to be more resilient compared to the luxury and high-end products offered by Western economies, which are more vulnerable in times of crisis [5][10] Group 2 - The sanctions have led to a shift in ownership of Western brands operating in Russia, allowing these businesses to continue functioning under new management, thus minimizing the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy [5][8] - The economic confrontation is characterized by mutual costs, where the industries of the sanctioning countries also suffer, indicating that the impact of sanctions is not one-sided [5][12] - The focus should not solely be on GDP growth but rather on the effective allocation of limited resources to achieve maximum economic output and resilience against risks, which is a fundamental aspect of economic theory [10][12]

Group 1 - The AlUla conference on emerging market economies 2026 will begin tomorrow, organized in partnership with the Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund, featuring high-level participation from economic decision-makers, finance ministers, central bank governors, and international financial institution leaders [1] - The conference is timely as the global economy undergoes profound transformations in international trade and financial systems, facing challenges such as slowing growth, increasing uncertainty, and mounting pressures on emerging market economies [2] - The conference aims to contribute to the development of an economic policy program for emerging market economies to support growth and prosperity while enhancing global economic stability [3] Group 2 - This year's conference theme is "Policies in a Context of Resetting International Trade and Financial Systems," highlighting rapid transformations in the global economy and the challenges and opportunities they present for emerging market economies [4] - The conference program focuses on key issues such as the restructuring of global trade amid geopolitical and economic changes, the dynamics of the international monetary and financial system, and the challenges facing monetary policy in an uncertain and structurally changing environment [5] - Additionally, the conference will address resilience and budgetary policy frameworks in a world subject to shocks, the role of public policies in strengthening economic resilience, and ways to stimulate private sector-led growth and productivity [6] Group 3 - The conference will conclude with discussions on enhancing the resilience of emerging market economies and economic transformation, reviewing key lessons learned, and defining measures to support international cooperation and policy coordination [7] - The AlUla conference aims to raise global awareness of the issues facing emerging market economies, highlight their central role in the global economy, and strengthen the presence of these issues on the international economic and media agenda [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal discussions regarding the restrictiveness of current interest rates, with notable divisions among officials on the timing, magnitude, and caution of potential rate cuts, influenced by differing assessments of inflation trends and economic resilience [1][5] Group 1: Perspectives on Monetary Policy - Stephen Milan, a Federal Reserve governor, advocates for a more accommodative monetary policy, arguing that the current economic conditions do not support high interest rates and suggesting a need for significant rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points within the year [1][3] - Milan's stance is based on his belief that there is no substantial price pressure in the economy, and the high rates are more a result of specific factors in inflation measurement rather than actual economic conditions [3][5] - In contrast, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy, focusing on achieving the 2% inflation target before making significant adjustments, to ensure labor market stability [3][4] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Risks - Barkin identifies that while economic uncertainty has decreased and there are signs of improvement, potential risks remain, particularly in the labor market where hiring is concentrated in a few sectors [4][5] - He notes that the resilience of U.S. economic demand is significantly supported by investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and spending by affluent consumers, highlighting the interconnectedness of these factors [4] - Barkin warns that a slowdown in AI investment or a decline in the net worth of wealthy consumers could negatively impact overall demand and economic resilience, reinforcing his cautious approach to monetary policy [4][5] Group 3: Current Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that the current policy stance provides sufficient flexibility to balance employment and inflation risks [4] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the definition of the "restrictive boundary" of policy highlight the differing priorities between Milan's focus on economic needs for easing and Barkin's emphasis on inflation targets and economic stability [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market: Expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5] - Neutral: Expected to perform within ±5% of the market in the next 6 months [5] - Weaker than the market: Expected to underperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5] Core View of the Report - In the January 2026 meeting, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75%, with Governors Milan and Waller voting against and advocating a 25BP rate cut [2] - The Fed's statement changes mainly include modifying the description of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid" and indicating that the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization [2] - Powell affirmed the economic resilience and still did not consider rate hikes as the baseline scenario. The next rate cut will comprehensively consider inflation and employment [2][3] - There was not much incremental information in this meeting, and Powell's stance was generally mild. The US Treasury yields fluctuated little, and the market's forecast of the rate cut amplitude this year remained at around 46BP [2][4] - In terms of strategy, the resilience of the US fundamentals in Q1 may limit the downward space of long - term yields. Short - term US Treasuries have certain allocation value [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decisions - The Fed kept the policy rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in the January 2026 meeting, and two governors voted against and proposed a 25BP rate cut [2] Changes in the Fed's Statement - The description of economic growth was changed from "moderate" to "solid", and it was stated that the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, while the description of paying attention to employment downside risks was removed [2] Powell's Stance - Powell affirmed the economic resilience, stating that the economy has once again surprised with its strength [2][3] - He believed that the current policy rate is at the upper edge of the neutral rate forecast range, and it is more in the neutral or slightly restrictive range [2][3] - Rate cuts may still be the baseline expectation. The next rate cut will comprehensively consider inflation and employment, and rate hikes are not the Fed's baseline expectation [2][3] Asset Price Performance - After the meeting, US Treasury yields fluctuated little, and the market's forecast of the rate cut amplitude this year remained at around 46BP [2][4] Investment Strategy - The resilience of the US fundamentals in Q1 may limit the downward space of long - term yields. Short - term US Treasuries have certain allocation value. If January inflation continues to exceed expectations seasonally, it may provide a better short - term allocation window [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a six-month high of 1.3789, driven by a weaker dollar, resilient UK economic data, and delayed interest rate cut expectations [1][2] - The UK economy shows resilience, with the composite PMI rising to 53.9 in January 2026, indicating accelerated business growth and warming demand, which suggests strong GDP growth in the first quarter [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US enhances the pound's advantage, with UK inflation rebounding to 3.4% in December, reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The weak US dollar index, which fell to 96.27, has contributed to the pound's strength, as funds shift towards GBP assets due to reduced safe-haven appeal of the dollar [2] - Several institutions have raised their forecasts for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with expectations of breaking through the 1.38 level and targeting 1.40, with NatWest predicting rates of 1.41 and 1.42 by mid and end of 2026 [2] - There are uncertainties surrounding the pound's trajectory, particularly due to political risks in the UK and internal divisions within the Bank of England regarding interest rate decisions [2][3]