美元兑加元在1.3820附近获得支撑，短期阻力位于1.3900–1.3920区间。若价格突破该阻力，可能进一步 走高至1.3980。下方若跌破1.3820支撑，则可能打开回调空间，目标指向1.3750。整体走势显示汇价进 入区间震荡格局，等待新的政策和数据指引。 周三（8月27日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3840，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为1.3836。加拿大7月份 零售销售数据表现强劲，环比增长1.5%，与市场预期一致；更值得关注的是，剔除汽车销售后的核心 零售销售环比大幅增长1.9%，远超市场预期的1.1%。 这一强劲数据表明，在汽车销售之外，加拿大国内消费动力广泛且显著增强，反映出消费者信心稳固和 经济内生活力充足。超预期的零售表现进一步巩固了市场对加拿大经济韧性的判断，也为加元提供了有 力的基本面支撑，在一定程度上增强了加元在主要货币中的相对强势地位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is seen as a significant economic challenge for India and could potentially lower its GDP growth rate below 6% for the fiscal year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian products imported for consumption, effective from August 27, 2025 [1][2]. - This tariff is part of a broader strategy against countries maintaining trade relations with Russia, with the cumulative effect of previous tariffs leading to a total of 50% on Indian imports [2][5]. - The tariffs are expected to impact approximately 66% of India's exports to the U.S., including textiles, gems, shrimp, carpets, and furniture [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Experts predict that the tariffs could force India to make strategic adjustments to maintain economic growth while addressing employment and industry competitiveness [2]. - The Reserve Bank of India has indicated it will provide special support to industries affected by the tariffs, expressing confidence in achieving results through trade negotiations [3]. - Analysts warn that if the 50% tariff remains long-term, it could exert pressure on India's economy and corporate profits, potentially reducing GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points over the next two years [5]. Group 3: Government Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the government's commitment to protecting farmers and small businesses, asserting that they will not compromise on these interests [3]. - The Indian government is exploring financial assistance for affected exporters and encouraging them to diversify into markets in China, Latin America, and the Middle East [5]. - Modi has also promised comprehensive reforms in the goods and services tax to stimulate the economy, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [5]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have faced challenges, particularly regarding agricultural and dairy sectors, with both sides holding firm on their positions [8]. - The cancellation of a scheduled round of trade talks has further complicated the situation, although Indian officials maintain that discussions are still ongoing [8].

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产有所回升，基建开工延续改善，港口货运量保持韧性。 【工业生产】工业生产有所回升。 本周，高炉开工率同比边际上行1.1pct至5.9%。中游生产景气分化， PTA、汽车开工表现偏弱，同比分别+0.1pct 至-6.6%、+1.1pct 至-5.9%；纯碱、涤纶长丝开工好于去年同 期，同比分别+0.1pct至5.8%、+0.9pct至3.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工延续改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比-1.5pct至-5.6%；水泥出货率仍在低位， 同比+0.8pct至-2.9%。沥青开工率延续上行，同比+0.5pct至8.6%。 【下游需求】人流出行仍在高位，港口货运量保持韧性。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积偏弱，同比+2.9pct 至-6.3% ；其中，一线成交有所回升。货运方面，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量大幅回 升，同比分别+7.1pct至9.7%、+6.1pct至14.8%；集运价格有所回落、环比-1.6%，东南亚航线运价小幅回 落。作为对比，人流出行强度保持高位，全国迁徙规模指数同比-5.2pct至16.6%。 ...

文 | 赵伟 、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 下半年，经济增长动能或出现"强弱切换"，哪些领域存在"隐忧"，哪些领域韧性较强？本文分析，供参 考。 经济增长的"隐忧"："两新"透支效应显现，地产对经济的拖累仍在继续。 2025年上半年经济增长保持高位，但近两月经济增长出现"隐忧"，主要体现为前期表现强势的"两新"领 域增长回落。 2025年上半年实际GDP同比5.3%、超过市场预期，主因"抢出口"、"两新"领域走强。但进 入6月，受电商促销前置及国补"空窗期"影响，社零增速连续回落、7月降至3.7%。同时，设备自然更新 周期结束等中期风险也有显现，7月设备购置投资增速回落11.3pct至6%。 地产对经济的拖累仍在延续，供给端未延续改善，投资、销售回落也未见底。 7月房企信用融资增速回 落13.5pct至-15.8%，为近两年最低值；在此背景下，竣工面积（-27.7pct至-29.4%）增速明显回落。存量 项目减少的滞后拖累，地产投资也明显回落。销售端，70城一手、二手房价环比仍为负数(分 别-0.3%、-0.5%)，商品房销售面积、销售额同比分别回落2.4、3.3pct至-7.8%、-14. ...

宏 观 研 究 "反脆弱"系列专题 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 浦聚颖 A0230123090007 pujy@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 08 月 26 日 经济的"韧性"？ ——"反脆弱"系列专题之十四 下半年，经济增长动能或出现"强弱切换"，哪些领域存在"隐忧"，哪些领域韧性较强？本文分 析，供参考。 ⚫ 经济增长的"隐忧"："两新"透支效应显现，地产对经济的拖累仍在继续。 2025 年上半年经济增长保持高位，但近两月经济增长出现"隐忧"，主要体现为前期表现强势的"两 新"领域增长回落。2025 年上半年实际 GDP 同比 5.3%、超过市场预期，主因"抢出口"、"两新" 领域走强。但进入 6 月，受电商促销前置及国补"空窗期"影响，社 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-22 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 逐 | 全 | 美 | 制 | 现 | 风 | 美 | 但 | 份 | 降 | 望 | " | 大， | 体 | 对 | 的 | 加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有 | 尔 | 调 | 月 | 要 | 行 | 不 | 场 | 增 | 4， | 单 | 霍 | 9 | 期 | 纪 | 化 | 下 | 市 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

英镑兑美元预计回调空间有限，理想情况下回调将受限于1.3500区间——这将构成健康回调，之后多头 有望重新积聚动能，最终突破1.3588-1.3618阻力。若该区间被有效突破，将打开指向1.3788的空间，这 一水平是2025年高点，也是2021年10月以来的最高位。 英国国家统计局上周四表示，英国6月三个月GDP月率录得0.3%，超出预期。数据表明，尽管企业和消 费者受到多重因素冲击，经济在这段本就预计艰难的时期仍保持了韧性——这些因素包括里夫斯推出的 260亿英镑（352亿美元）工资税加征政策、能源等受监管价格突破通胀水平的上涨、购房税上调，以及 美国总统特朗普实施的关税政策。此外，数据显示，自去年10月里夫斯推出增税预算以来，英国减少的 就业岗位数量少于最初预期，这似乎让英国央行在是否继续将利率从当前4%的水平下调的问题上更加 举棋不定。交易员们不再完全认为今年会进一步降息，预计明年借贷成本将稳定在3.5%。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3551，跌幅0.00%，昨日收盘报1.3551。 数据显示，英国 经济在第二季度的表现好于预期，这给财政大臣里夫斯带来了一些慰藉，但也提高了英国央行 ...

德国经济与能源部长卡特琳娜·赖歇8月1日说，军工行业是德国经济韧性"必不可少的组成部分"，这一 行业长期以来遭到低估，现在必须让其在经济复苏上发挥重要作用。 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[1] - The construction business activity index was at 50.6%, down from 52.8%, while the services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.1%[1] Group 2: Production and Demand Factors - The production index for July was 50.5%, down from 51%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4% from 50.2%, indicating a contraction in new orders[2] - Extreme weather events in July, including heavy rains and heatwaves, impacted outdoor construction activities, contributing to the decline in production and new orders[2] - Passenger car sales dropped by 21.9% month-on-month in July, reflecting weakened consumer demand post the June shopping festival[2] Group 3: Price Indices and Inventory - The PMI output price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%, and the raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating rising input costs[3] - The gap between raw material prices and finished product prices widened to 3.2 percentage points, up from 2.2 percentage points, which is detrimental to corporate profit recovery[3] - The inventory indices for finished goods and raw materials both declined, with finished goods at 47.4% and raw materials at 47.7%, indicating a contraction in inventory levels[4] Group 4: Business Sentiment and Future Outlook - Small enterprises faced significant pressure, with their PMI dropping to 46.4%, while large and medium enterprises saw slight increases[4] - The outlook for future demand remains cautious, with businesses responding primarily to short-term orders and maintaining low inventory levels[5] - The political bureau meeting emphasized consolidating economic recovery and addressing prominent issues, with a focus on nurturing emerging industries and avoiding debt-driven growth[5]

Core Insights - On July 30, the A-share market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices showing mixed results, while stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 7.5 billion yuan [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock ETF Inflows - On July 30, stock ETFs had a net inflow of 7.5 billion yuan, with significant inflows into the ChiNext index and Hong Kong-related ETFs covering sectors such as technology, finance, pharmaceuticals, and the internet [1][3] - The top three stock ETFs by net inflow were the E Fund ChiNext ETF (1.542 billion yuan), E Fund Hong Kong Securities ETF (976 million yuan), and the Fortune Hong Kong Internet ETF (811 million yuan) [3][4] - In July, net inflows into Hong Kong securities, internet, pharmaceuticals, and technology sectors reached 30 billion yuan [2][4] Group 2: Stock ETF Outflows - On the same day, 20 stock ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI A500 ETFs among the hardest hit [6][7] - The top three stock ETFs by net outflow were the CSI 300 ETF (1.345 billion yuan), pharmaceutical ETFs (629 million yuan), and CSI 500 ETF (415 million yuan) [6][7] - The total net outflow from the top 20 stock ETFs included four CSI 300 ETFs with a combined outflow of over 2.1 billion yuan and four pharmaceutical-related ETFs with a total outflow exceeding 1 billion yuan [6][7]