（上接A01版） ● 本报记者 连润 三季度是经济稳增长的关键窗口期。业内人士认为，近日发布的挖掘机、物流、中小企业等领域的数据 指标呈现向好态势，折射出经济韧性与活力。 投资稳：挖掘机指数向好 挖掘机是基础设施建设的标配，是反映基础设施建设、观察固定资产投资等经济变化的风向标。 从开工率来看，9月16日发布的央视财经挖掘机指数显示，8月，全国工程机械平均开工率为43.42%。 其中，全国共有17个省份开工率超过50%。再观销量，中国工程机械工业协会统计显示，今年前8个月 挖掘机主要制造企业共销售挖掘机154181台，同比增长17.2%。其中，国内销量80628台，同比增长 21.5%。 中联重科相关负责人在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，6月至8月，公司挖掘机国内销量同比增速分别 为6.2%、17.2%和14.8%。非土方机械方面，7月和8月，汽车起重机、随车起重机、履带起重机三类工 程起重机国内销量呈同频增长的良好态势，其中8月汽车起重机和随车起重机国内销量更是加速增长。 对于后续基建投资走势，中诚信国际研究院研究报告认为，近期，有关部门释放积极信号，加快设立投 放新型政策性金融工具，重点投向新兴产业、基础 ...

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - In September 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The production index for September was reported at 51.9%, up from 50.8% in August, reflecting a significant rebound in production activity[2] - The supply-demand gap widened to 2.2 percentage points, indicating that production continues to outpace demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI for factory prices and raw material purchase prices decreased to 48.2% and 53.2%, respectively, with a notable drop in factory prices attributed to changes in consumer subsidy policies[3] - The average price of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and wire rods fell by 1.83%, 1.48%, and 4.1% month-on-month, reaching 3264 CNY/ton, 3406 CNY/ton, and 3205 CNY/ton respectively[3] - Finished goods inventory index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, indicating a tight balance in inventory levels[4] Group 3: Business Performance by Size - Large enterprises saw an increase in their index by 0.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises rose by 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] - Medium-sized enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 48.8%[4] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.3%, but both housing and civil engineering indices remained below 50%, indicating ongoing challenges[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The September PMI rebound and production expansion suggest economic resilience, but the continuous contraction in PMI over six months highlights underlying economic pressures[5] - The fluctuation in inventory indices indicates that the economy has not yet stabilized to provide firms with consistent expectations[5] - Future export pressures and the impact of subsidy policies on production and pricing remain critical factors for economic health[7]

AvaTrade爱华每日市场报告：全球多数主要股市延续涨势，在美国消费者支出数据意外上行的提振下，市场对经济韧性的担忧有所缓解，风险情绪整体回 暖。美股三大指数小幅收高，道指与罗素2000指数表现尤为强劲，欧洲市场也普遍录得上涨。大宗商品方面，原油和黄金价格双双走高，反映出投资者在供 应风险、通胀预期及地缘政治不确定性之间的复杂权衡。 | Today: Sep 29 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date | 8:20am | Currency Impact | | | | Mon Sep 29 | 8:00am | EUR | L | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | | | D3:00pm | USD | | Pending Home Sales m/m | | | 6:15pm | USD | U | President Trump Speaks | | ا More | | | | | 1. 前一天总结 – 2025 年 9 月 26 日星期五 2. 今天的动向 – 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 市场亮点 • 标准普尔50 ...

Core Insights - The 190th Munich Beer Festival attracted approximately 6.7 million visitors, generating an economic value of around €1.57 billion, showcasing its cultural significance and economic impact [1][7] Pricing Trends - The average price of beer at this year's festival increased by approximately 3.52% compared to 2024, ranging from €14.50 to €15.80 per liter, more than doubling from €6.80 per liter in 2005 [3] - Food prices also saw significant increases, with a half chicken priced around €20 and traditional Bavarian meals exceeding €30 per person, while some items like the giant pork knuckle reached €229, marking the highest food price in the festival's history [3] - Transportation and accommodation costs surged, with hotel prices in central Munich doubling during the festival, and train fares from Frankfurt to Munich rising from about €50 to €80 [3] Cost Pressures on Breweries - The German beer industry is facing substantial cost pressures, with production costs rising at an average annual rate of about 6% since 2020, driven by raw materials, packaging, and labor costs [5] - The profit margins for breweries are being squeezed, with a 12% gap between production costs and selling prices, significantly impacting profitability [5] - Energy costs remain high, with Germany having some of the highest electricity and gas prices in Europe, further increasing operational expenses for breweries [5] Market Dynamics - Beer consumption in Germany has declined by 35% over the past 31 years, while the non-alcoholic beer market has experienced significant growth, with non-alcoholic Pilsner sales increasing by about 9% in the first half of 2025 [6] - The festival's economic benefits extend beyond direct beer sales, with approximately 60% of the revenue generated from spending outside the festival grounds, benefiting hotels, restaurants, and retail sectors in Munich [7]

Economic Growth - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth quarter in nearly two years, indicating robust economic momentum [1][5] - The growth follows a slight increase of 0.1% in Q1 2025, demonstrating a continuation of positive economic trends [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and trade led the supply-side growth, while household consumption and reduced imports contributed to demand-side growth [2] - Manufacturing output increased by 1.8%, driven by the automotive, petroleum, chemicals, rubber, and plastics sectors [2] - Mining output rose by 3.7%, the fastest growth since Q1 2021, with platinum group metals, gold, and chrome contributing significantly [2] - The trade, accommodation, and food services sectors grew by 1.7%, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022 [2] - Agriculture continued its positive trend with a third consecutive quarter of growth, supported by increased horticultural and livestock activities [2] Consumer Activity - Household consumption has shown consistent growth for five consecutive quarters, with a 0.8% increase in Q2 2025, fueled by spending in dining, hospitality, clothing, and insurance [2][4] - The retail trade, automotive trade, and food and beverage sectors also experienced growth, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [4] Challenges and Declines - Despite the overall growth, there were declines in demand for alcoholic beverages and housing-related services, as well as a drop in wholesale trade [3] - The construction sector contracted for the third consecutive quarter, with a decline of 0.3%, and transportation, storage, and communication sectors also saw a decrease of 0.8% [3] - Fixed capital investment fell by 1.4%, marking a third consecutive quarter of decline [3] Government Response and Outlook - The South African government views the Q2 2025 economic data as a sign of resilience amid global trade challenges, emphasizing the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating growth and supporting local industries [4][5] - Economic analysts predict a moderate acceleration in South Africa's economy, despite the low growth rate, indicating an overall improving trend [5]

中新网南宁9月17日电（记者黄艳梅）马来西亚副总理兼能源及水务转型部部长法迪拉17日在广西南宁 市表示，中国—东盟博览会在充分释放中国—东盟经济合作潜力方面发挥着关键作用。马来西亚始终致 力于同中国及东盟密切协作，共同开拓合作新机遇。 法迪拉在开幕式上表示，东博会已发展成为促进贸易投资、增强互信、强化区域联动的重要平台，为东 盟各国与中国民众带来切实利益。对马来西亚而言，东博会延续着马中两国逾半个世纪外交关系的强劲 势头，一系列互动印证了双方在贸易、投资和创新领域深化合作的共同愿景。 法迪拉同时表示，面对全球不确定性，东盟和中国必须继续实现贸易和投资战略多元化，同时坚定不移 地促进本地区的和平、稳定与共同繁荣。作为2025年东盟轮值主席国，马来西亚致力于打造一个充满活 力、竞争力、一体化和韧性的地区，同时维护东盟的中心地位，加强区域合作。 本届东博会，马来西亚将展示涵盖教育、医疗保健、医药和化妆品等领域的广泛产品，以及科技、人工 智能、物流和建筑材料等高价值领域产品。 责编：李磊、王瑞景 今年，中国与东盟十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判。法迪拉表示，这一里程碑事件彰显了双 方在快速变化的全球经济中共同 ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In September, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 304,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%[1] - As of September 12, the average number of domestic flights was 12,800, a month-on-month decrease of 12.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.01%[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2023.7, a month-on-month increase of 1.12% and a year-on-year increase of 2.84%[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of September 13, the average operating rate of blast furnaces rebounded by 3.47 percentage points to 83.58%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production averaged 42.62%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of PTA production increased by 5.47 percentage points to 74.95%[1] Price Performance - As of September 12, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.14% week-on-week, while the price of eggs rose by 2.41% week-on-week[1] - The PPI for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%[4] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.87% and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.22% as of September 12[2] Monetary and Liquidity - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan for the month[3] - The average daily transaction volume of interbank pledged repos increased to 7.5 trillion yuan[3] - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8670%, an increase of 4 basis points[3] Overseas Macro and Market - The U.S. CPI for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations[4] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell to 55.4, the lowest since May of this year[4]

Core Insights - Indonesia is experiencing a wave of protests, but the stock market is at a near five-year high, indicating underlying economic resilience despite short-term challenges such as currency depreciation and weak consumer demand [1][4]. Economic Challenges - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 0.17% in the past month and 6.42% over the past year, with the current exchange rate at 16,414.5 IDR per USD [2]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight decrease of 0.08% month-on-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.31%, reflecting weakened consumer purchasing power [2]. - Domestic travel during the Ramadan period saw a decrease of approximately 47 million people compared to 2024, indicating reduced consumer spending [2]. Trade Performance - Indonesia's imports fell by 5.86% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since May 2024, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $4.17 billion for 63 consecutive months, driven by coal, palm oil, and steel exports [3]. - The trade outlook may face uncertainties due to potential impacts from the US-Indonesia tariff agreement and declining coal prices [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 7,885.86 points on September 3, reflecting a 20.96% increase over the past six months, indicating strong market performance despite recent protests [4]. - Economic fundamentals, proactive monetary policy, and valuation recovery are driving the stock market's upward trend [4]. - The stock market is considered undervalued based on the original Buffett indicator, with an expected annual return of +10.9% over the next eight years [5]. Long-term Outlook - Indonesia's large market size and significant role in global commodity trade enhance its resilience against external risks, with food self-sufficiency being a highlight of the economy this year [6]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from ongoing upgrades, supported by demographic advantages and deepening cooperation with major economies like China [5][6].

Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry Opening - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote institutional opening of service trade and leverage service imports to boost domestic service industry development [7] Group 2: Economic Insights from Jackson Hole - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted a slowdown in economic growth, with real GDP growth at 1.2% in the first half of 2025, half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [10][11] - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 over the past three months, down from 168,000 in 2024 [11] - Inflation remains a concern, with July PCE at 2.6% year-on-year and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating a complex inflationary environment influenced by tariffs [11] Group 3: Social Security Reform - The rapid demographic changes in China necessitate improvements and reforms in the social security system, which may become a key focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan [14] Group 4: Economic Resilience - Economic growth dynamics may shift in the second half of the year, with potential vulnerabilities in certain sectors while others show resilience [17] - Manufacturing sector faces challenges, while the service sector demonstrates stronger demand resilience [25] Group 5: High-Frequency Tracking - Industrial production is showing signs of recovery, with infrastructure projects continuing to improve and port freight volumes remaining robust [21] - Profit growth in industrial enterprises is recovering, but this is largely attributed to low base effects, with ongoing cost pressures [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on service industry openness, labor market conditions, inflation trends, and social security reforms, highlighting potential opportunities and challenges in these areas [7][10][14][27]. Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote service trade and leverage service imports to boost local service industry development, indicating a shift towards service industry openness as a new growth area [7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Labor Market - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the previous year's figures, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [11]. - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 in the last three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening job market [11]. - The unemployment rate's stability is threatened by a significant slowdown in labor force growth and participation rates, suggesting an increase in job loss risks [11]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Inflation remains a concern, with July's PCE showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [11]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with expectations of continued accumulation in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude of these effects remain uncertain [11]. Group 4: Social Security Reform - The article highlights the need for social security system improvements and reforms, particularly in light of rapid demographic changes, suggesting that this will be a key focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [14]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - The second half of 2025 may see a "strong-weak switch" in economic growth dynamics, with certain sectors showing resilience while others face challenges, particularly in manufacturing and service industries [18][27]. - Export performance may exceed expectations, driven not by opportunistic exports but by improvements in external demand and market share [27].