炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 张铭楷 陈峰 刘春彤 我们判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从 小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论是否能 成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线 索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规 模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估， 化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始 保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ETF集中赎回潮基本结束 权重股迎来修复窗口 沪深300ETF本周累计净赎回2443亿元，与前一周净赎回总额2374亿元相当，不过本周五净赎回额仅为 73亿元，为1月15日以来单日净赎回额首次回落至300亿元以下。1月截至29日，全市场宽基类ETF净赎 ...

Arya认为，宏观环境仍存在不确定性，但相对不拥挤的模拟芯片板块有望重新获得市场关注，主要驱动 因素包括：工业库存补库(出货仍低于趋势15%-20%)、数据中心电源与连接需求的新增量，以及航空航 天与国防市场增长，同时汽车电子内容提升也将带来结构性机会。 摩根士丹利方面则保持谨慎。分析师Joseph Moore表示，虽然此前预期德州仪器将出现季节性超预期表 现，仍需看到更多连续增长的季度数据，才能对复苏的可持续性建立信心。摩根士丹利继续给予该 股"减持"评级，并将目标价小幅上调至180美元。 相比之下，美国银行则对公司前景更为乐观。该行将德州仪器评级从"跑输大盘"上调至"中性"，并将微 芯科技评级从"中性"上调至"买入"。同时，美国银行将德州仪器目标价大幅上调至235美元，微芯科技 目标价上调至95美元。 美国银行分析师Vivek Arya指出，德州仪器在第一季度展望中释放出的"模拟芯片复苏"信号十分明确， 并在CES期间与多家头部模拟芯片企业交流中得到印证。 智通财经APP获悉，德州仪器(TXN.US)周三在公布第四季度业绩及最新展望后，股价在盘前交易中一 度上涨约6.5%。市场认为，全球数据中心建设浪潮带 ...

功率模拟涨价怎么看？20260127 摘要 模拟芯片市场需求整体环比去年增长，受益于储能、汽车、AI 电源及海 外替代等领域的需求拉动，前景并不悲观，但总体需求强度不及 2021- 2022 年。 模拟芯片供给端面临挑战，成熟制程产能收缩和代工价格上涨，类似于 2021 年情况重现，8 寸晶圆产能同比转负，中国大陆代工价格上涨，供 给弹性较弱。 经销商在模拟芯片市场中扮演关键催化剂角色，通过调整库存策略放大 市场需求和价格反馈，加速市场波动，对价格具有放大效应。 模拟芯片涨价趋势明显，上游 Fab、封测及贵金属成本上涨，大型厂商 如 TI、ADI 调整价格策略，叠加极端天气可能扰动供应链，共同推动涨 价。 功率板块市场呈现涨价趋势，代工厂及中小型功率公司纷纷发布涨价函， 主要由于上游原材料成本上涨，但不同公司涨价幅度存在差异。 全球 8 寸晶圆产能下滑，台积电和三星调整业务导致产能减少，国内扩 产集中在 12 寸和 IGBT 领域，中低压 MOS 出现供给紧缺，海外大厂转 向碳化硅等领域也减少了传统 MOS 供给。 功率板块下游各领域库存已基本恢复正常水位，上游涨价预期可能加速 经销商拉货，国内功率公司全球市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a positive trend, particularly in the analog chip sector, highlighted by the recent listing of Naxin Micro on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, making it one of the few companies in the domestic analog chip field to achieve dual listings in A+H markets [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Naxin Micro, established in 2013, focuses on chip design and sales, having previously listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2022 [1] - The company ranks fifth among Chinese analog chip manufacturers by revenue in 2024 and is the only major player in the top ten focusing on sensors, signal chain chips, and power management chips [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic automotive analog chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2025 to 2029, with expectations that the market size will surpass that of consumer electronics by 2029 [3] - Current domestic market penetration for analog chips is only 5%, indicating significant potential for domestic manufacturers to capture market share [3] Group 3: Pricing and Demand - Major industry players, such as Analog Devices and Texas Instruments, have announced price increases for their products, with some categories seeing price hikes of up to 30%, reflecting a recovery in downstream demand [3] - The demand for high-power and high-current analog chips is being driven by the recovery in industrial control and automotive sectors, as well as the growth in AI data centers [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - Naxin Micro reported a revenue of 1.524 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 79.49%, while the net loss narrowed to 78 million yuan, improving by 70.59% [5] - The company's gross margin for Q2 reached 35.97%, indicating a trend towards operational recovery, although profitability has not yet been achieved [5] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - The funds raised from the recent listing will be used to enhance technical capabilities, expand product offerings, and develop international sales networks [4] - Naxin Micro's product range includes automotive electronics and AI-related components, with potential for growth in these sectors, although market cultivation will take time [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the semiconductor sector has shifted focus to analog chips, with leading stocks like Shengbang Co., Jihua Te, and Zhenlei Technology experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [3][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Signals - Analog Devices (ADI) announced a price increase for its entire product line, effective February 1, 2026, with military-grade products seeing a rise of up to 30% [3][5]. - Texas Instruments (TI) initiated a price hike in August 2023, affecting over 60,000 models with increases ranging from 10% to 30% [3][5]. - The collective price increases from these industry giants are interpreted as strong signals of a cyclical reversal in the analog chip market, which has struggled with inventory and demand issues over the past two years [3][5][6]. Group 2: Demand Recovery and Market Dynamics - The demand for analog chips is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with signs of recovery in smartphone shipments, electric vehicle demand, and industrial automation driven by policy support [5][6]. - The current price increases differ fundamentally from the panic-driven hikes of 2020-2021, as they reflect strategic moves by leading companies to stabilize prices and restore profit margins rather than a response to supply chain disruptions [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for A-share Analog Chip Companies - A-share analog chip companies like Shengbang Co. and Jihua Te are expected to benefit from improved profit margins as a result of the price hikes initiated by global leaders [8][9]. - The average gross margin for the analog chip sector has declined from 42.2% in 2022 to 35.72% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 36.01% by Q3 2023, indicating the pressure faced by domestic manufacturers [9]. - If the price stability and potential increases lead to enhanced demand from downstream customers, A-share companies may experience a "volume-price rise" scenario, particularly in key areas like power management and automotive-grade chips [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price hikes by global semiconductor giants Analog Devices (ADI) and Texas Instruments (TI) signal a potential reversal in the semiconductor industry's cycle, particularly for the analog chip sector, which has been underperforming due to inventory digestion and weak demand over the past two years [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Reactions - Analog Devices plans to increase prices across its entire product range by up to 30% for military-grade products starting February 1, 2026, following Texas Instruments' earlier price hikes of 10%-30% for over 60,000 models [1][2]. - The collective price increases from industry leaders are interpreted as a strong signal of a cyclical recovery, suggesting that the prolonged downturn may have reached its bottom [1][2][3]. - The market is shifting from a broad price war to a more structured "volume-price game," with high-end and automotive products showing stronger price rigidity compared to low-end general products [3]. Group 2: Demand Recovery and Industry Outlook - The demand for analog chips is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with signs of recovery in downstream markets, including a rebound in smartphone shipments and increased demand for electric and smart vehicles [2][4]. - The average gross margin for the analog chip sector has declined from 42.2% in 2022 to 35.72% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 36.01% by the end of Q3 this year, indicating the pressure domestic manufacturers faced during the downturn [4][5]. - The price stabilization initiated by leading companies could create a more favorable pricing environment for domestic firms, potentially aiding in gross margin recovery [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Prospects - Despite signs of recovery, domestic analog chip manufacturers face challenges, including reliance on international suppliers in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, and a need to observe the recovery strength in various fields [6]. - The potential for a "volume-price rise" scenario hinges on substantial recovery in downstream demand, particularly in key areas like power management and signal chain chips [6].

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 END 致新以消费性为基础，往车载、工规及伺服器产品进军，产品线避开与大厂直接竞争。 PMIC业者分 析，大厂涨价将有利客户寻找替代料源，台系业者以后进者身分分食市场大饼。致新看好，今年存储 涨价趋势下，将有利PC存储规格迭代至DDR5，对其产品组合有利。 市场总体需求、明年展望相对不明朗，相关业者担忧，存储价格问题，造成终端买盘不振；推测大厂 以差别订价因应，主要也是反映应用不同调，AI独强所致。 原文链接 https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251220700106-430503 （来源 ：ctee ） *免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。 全球模拟芯片市场释出明确复苏讯号。全球第二大模拟IC大厂亚德诺半导体（ADI）近日向客户发出 调价通知，规划自2026年2月1日起，针对全系列产品启动涨价机制，整体平均涨幅约15％。在此之 前，模拟芯片龙头德州仪器（TI）已于第三季月率先调涨价格，涨幅达1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company is a leading Fabless semiconductor design firm focusing on CMOS image sensors (CIS) and expanding into display and analog solutions, aiming to strengthen its global competitiveness through an upcoming IPO [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Company operates in three main solution areas: image sensor solutions, display solutions, and analog solutions, continuously driving technological iteration and market expansion [2] - In the smartphone CIS sector, the company plans to launch the OV50X image sensor in April 2025, featuring LOFIC technology for HDR in various lighting conditions [2] - The automotive CIS sector has seen the introduction of several products, including the OX08D10 and OX05D10, designed to meet the requirements of next-generation ADAS and autonomous driving [2] - The medical CIS sector will see the release of the OCH2B30 camera module in June 2024, aimed at 3D dental scanning applications [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Company reported revenues of approximately 20.04 billion RMB, 20.984 billion RMB, 25.707 billion RMB, and 13.944 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 respectively, with a CAGR of about 13.3% from 2022 to 2024 [3] - The net profits for the same periods were 0.951 billion RMB, 0.544 billion RMB, 3.279 billion RMB, and 2.02 billion RMB, with a staggering 502% year-on-year profit increase in 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Drivers - In 2024, the company's revenue reached a historical high, driven by its strong market penetration in high-end smartphones and automotive applications, with CIS solutions revenue of 19.19 billion RMB, significantly higher than previous years [4] - The smartphone CIS product revenue was approximately 9.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 26.0% year-on-year growth [4] - The automotive CIS product revenue was around 5.91 billion RMB, showing a 30% year-on-year increase [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The global CIS market is projected to grow from 17.9 billion USD in 2020 to 19.5 billion USD in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.2%, and is expected to reach 29.5 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [7] - The company is positioned to benefit from this growth, leveraging its technological advantages and expanding into new applications such as automotive intelligence, machine vision, and AR/VR [7][8] Group 5: Competitive Advantages - Company has developed a strong and transferable technology platform, with over 4,500 global patents, enabling rapid product development and market entry [3][8] - The company's technology reuse strategy allows it to maintain a competitive edge across various sectors, including smartphones, automotive, and emerging fields like industrial automation [8][9] - The company is not only a beneficiary of the semiconductor industry's recovery but also a proactive leader in the digital and intelligent transformation across multiple industries [9]

Core Insights - Naxin Micro officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 8, becoming one of the few companies in the analog chip industry to establish an "A+H" dual capital platform [2] - Naxin Micro ranks first among Chinese manufacturers in the automotive analog chip market based on projected revenue for 2024, positioning itself as a representative enterprise in China's analog chip sector [3] - The company aims to use Hong Kong as a strategic hub for global expansion, indicating that its listing is not solely for fundraising but also for building a high-standard platform for international operations [3] Company Strategy - Naxin Micro's co-founder and COO outlined a "three-step" strategy for international expansion: Local for Local, Local for Global, and Global for Global [4] - The current phase, "Local for Global," focuses on leveraging domestic market collaborations to gain trust and extend projects to international clients [4] - The ultimate goal, "Global for Global," involves building a global capital and operational platform through the Hong Kong listing [4] Market Position and Challenges - Despite achieving breakthroughs in various segments, Naxin Micro acknowledges the gap between itself and established international giants like Texas Instruments and Infineon, particularly in product portfolio scale and manufacturing capabilities [5] - The company has over 4,000 product SKUs, but this is still less comprehensive compared to competitors with tens of thousands of products [5] - Naxin Micro operates under a Fabless model, relying on foundries, which creates a gap in manufacturing capabilities compared to vertically integrated manufacturers [5] Operational Efficiency - Naxin Micro plans to establish an independent and efficient overseas supply chain centered in Hong Kong, enhancing operational efficiency and providing a buffer against complex trade environments [7] - The company aims to attract global R&D talent by leveraging Hong Kong's top universities and international environment [7] Financial Performance - Naxin Micro's revenue grew from approximately 250 million yuan to about 840 million yuan from Q2 2023 to Q3 2025, despite the overall industry facing challenges [8] - The company has shipped over 980 million automotive chips, with an average of over 20 chips per vehicle produced in China, and 40 to 50 chips per electric vehicle [9] - Naxin Micro is currently operating at a loss, attributed to increased market competition and ongoing investments in new products and directions [9] Future Goals - The company aims to surpass the $1 billion revenue mark by 2029, which is a significant challenge given that leading domestic firms typically hover around 3 billion yuan (approximately $400 to $500 million) [10] - Naxin Micro's growth strategy emphasizes organizational capability over product alone, with a focus on building a systematic organization that does not rely on individual leadership [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the analog chip sector, shows a surge in horizontal mergers and acquisitions (M&A), but several notable deals have been terminated due to disagreements on key terms and conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: M&A Activity - SiRuPu (688536.SH) announced the termination of its major asset restructuring plan, leading to the resumption of its stock trading [1] - DiAoWei (688381.SH) held an investor briefing to announce the termination of its share purchase agreement for acquiring RongPai Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., due to a lack of consensus on the transaction terms [1] - A total of 9 horizontal M&A attempts have been initiated by 8 domestic analog chip manufacturers this year, including notable companies like SiRuPu, DiAoWei, and YaChuang Electronics [2][3]. Group 2: Reasons for M&A Termination - The primary reason for the termination of several M&A deals is the inability of the parties involved to reach an agreement on the transaction's core terms, such as pricing and performance commitments [5][6] - SiRuPu cited that the conditions for implementing a major asset restructuring were not fully mature as a reason for its deal's termination [5] - The semiconductor industry has experienced a significant influx of capital over the past decade, leading to inflated valuations, which, combined with economic adjustments, has made M&A transactions more challenging [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Characteristics and Trends - The analog chip industry is characterized by a long product lifecycle, a wide variety of chip types, and a low individual chip value, making it difficult for single companies to cover all product categories through self-research [4][7] - Horizontal M&A is seen as a key growth strategy for analog chip companies, allowing them to quickly acquire core technologies, R&D teams, and customer resources, thereby shortening development cycles and reducing market risks [3][4]. - The global analog chip market is dominated by companies like Texas Instruments (TI) and Analog Devices (ADI), which have successfully built comprehensive product lines through strategic acquisitions [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent terminations, external M&A is still viewed as a crucial growth path for analog chip companies, with firms like Xinxiangwei indicating a commitment to combining organic growth with external development strategies [5][6]. - The Chinese analog chip sector has over 400 design companies, but there is a notable absence of domestically competitive large firms capable of global competition [6][7].