2025 年 9 月 12 日 星期五 每日大市点评 9 月 11 日，受美国总统特朗普或有意打击中国生物医药行业的消息影响，港股大盘一度低开，但低位有承接，恒生指数 全日下跌 114 点或 0.4%，收报 26,086 点，稳守 26,000 点关口。恒生科指微跌 0.2%，收报 5,888 点。大市成交金额达 3,252 多亿港元，港股通净流入 189.9 亿港元。生物医药股是跌市重灾区，尽管整体板块下跌 3.1%，但多数个股裂口低开 后随即见全日低位，显示资金有明显趁低买入的意愿，药捷安康(2617 HK)、映恩生物(9606 HK)及荣昌生物(9995 HK)更 在南下资金推动下分别大升 10.1%至 20.8%不等。阿里巴巴(9988.HK)宣布发行 32 亿美元零息可换股优先票据，80%资金用 于 AI 基建，股价上升 0.4%，同时也带动港股 AI 基建及半导体相关股份造好，中兴通讯(763 HK)、鸿腾精密(6088 HK)、 中芯国际(981 HK)分别升 4.9%至 12.8%。阿里旗下高德地图于日前正式推出高德扫街榜功能，反映本地生活服务的竞争并 已从实时零售延伸至到店业务，美团(369 ...

Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].

Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-share market last week was 1.1 trillion, a decrease of 43.8 billion compared to the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.04%[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap growth stocks showed relative strength, with the small-cap growth index declining by only 0.44% compared to larger indices[12] - The private equity heavy index outperformed with a weekly increase of 1.18%, while the market sentiment index fell by 2.49%[20] Sector Performance - The A-share market saw a mixed performance across sectors, with some sectors experiencing significant gains while others faced declines[30] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors like consumer electronics and industrial automation for potential growth opportunities[40] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2025 emphasizes three key areas: stimulating domestic circulation, promoting technological self-reliance, and expanding international openness[40] - Specific sectors to watch include AI, new energy technologies, and cross-border e-commerce[40] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate trends, and geopolitical tensions that could impact market stability[46]

Group 1 - Since April, the global capital markets have experienced significant volatility, with the A-share market showing recovery after a sharp decline on April 7. Sectors such as leisure food, general retail, beverage and dairy, and agriculture have seen cumulative gains exceeding 11% since April, marking them as bright spots in the market [1] - Multiple brokerage research teams have actively provided professional analysis and macroeconomic outlooks, indicating a strong belief that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is far from over [1][2] - Central Huijin's liquidity support for stabilizing the stock market has been emphasized, with analysts expressing confidence in the government's commitment to maintaining market stability [2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the funding environment will remain relatively loose in May, primarily driven by medium to long-term capital entering the market. The focus will shift to technology, green sectors, consumption, and infrastructure in the medium term [3] - The performance of recommended stocks by brokerages has been closely monitored, with 43 brokerages recommending 265 stocks in April, of which 120 stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, representing 45.28% [5] - Notably, three stocks have seen gains exceeding 50% in April, with Wanchen Group leading at 53.11%, followed by Kexing Pharmaceutical at 52.99%, and Xianda Co. at 51.76% [5][6] Group 3 - The most recommended stock in April was Qingdao Beer, which was recommended by nine brokerages, showing a modest gain of 1.51%. In contrast, Gree Electric, recommended by seven brokerages, experienced a slight decline of 0.53% [6] - The brokerage stock combination index reflects the "mining" capability of brokerage research teams, with only ten brokerage stock combination indices showing an increase since April [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's policy options are more abundant, providing greater space and endurance compared to the U.S. during the trade war stalemate [1] - A-shares are seen as a key factor in boosting confidence, with a belief in the government's commitment to stabilize the capital market [1] - The article suggests that sectors benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, and materials that do not rely on short-term performance will outperform [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to be more self-reliant, with a stable domestic economic foundation and timely responses to external uncertainties [2] - Internal demand and self-sufficiency are highlighted as focal points for economic momentum and short-term policy support [2] - The market is better prepared psychologically to handle external uncertainties compared to the previous trade conflict in 2018 [2] Group 3 - A-shares are anticipated to see a stabilization in risk appetite, with defensive assets likely to yield absolute and relative returns during adjustment phases [3] - The technology sector is expected to gain weight in the market as confidence in capital market stability increases [3][4] - The next phase of A-share market growth is likely to be driven by structural technology trends [4] Group 4 - The configuration value of the A-share market is expected to rise, supported by a resilient domestic economy and ample policy reserves [5] - The market is projected to achieve stable and healthy long-term development as it adapts to tariff policies [5] Group 5 - The Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not yet over, with a shift in the main contradictions of valuation [6] - A decline in discount rates is identified as a key driver for the stock market's rise by 2025 [6] Group 6 - The market's downward volatility risk is considered limited, with a focus on internal demand policies [7] - The upcoming months are expected to see more fiscal policy implementation, particularly in May and June [7] Group 7 - The A-share market is viewed as having controllable downside risks and potential for upward movement, with a focus on sectors experiencing local economic recovery [9] - Recommendations include sectors with high free cash flow and low penetration but high growth potential, such as AI and humanoid robots [9] Group 8 - The resilience of A-shares and the government's determination to stabilize the stock market are emphasized, with a favorable outlook for medium to long-term investments [10] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an advantage over global indices due to valuation benefits [10] Group 9 - The short-term equity market is in a consolidation phase, but domestic policy support and resilient internal demand are expected to maintain its relative strength [11] - Focus areas include domestic technology self-sufficiency and quality assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion [11] Group 10 - The expectation of a rebound in global recession forecasts suggests a need for China to find suitable demand to maintain its manufacturing capacity advantage [13] - Recommended sectors include consumer industries benefiting from domestic demand and resource products amid global economic restructuring [13]

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]