Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].

Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-share market last week was 1.1 trillion, a decrease of 43.8 billion compared to the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.04%[12] Market Style Performance - Small-cap growth stocks showed relative strength, with the small-cap growth index declining by only 0.44% compared to larger indices[12] - The private equity heavy index outperformed with a weekly increase of 1.18%, while the market sentiment index fell by 2.49%[20] Sector Performance - The A-share market saw a mixed performance across sectors, with some sectors experiencing significant gains while others faced declines[30] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors like consumer electronics and industrial automation for potential growth opportunities[40] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2025 emphasizes three key areas: stimulating domestic circulation, promoting technological self-reliance, and expanding international openness[40] - Specific sectors to watch include AI, new energy technologies, and cross-border e-commerce[40] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate trends, and geopolitical tensions that could impact market stability[46]

Group 1 - Since April, the global capital markets have experienced significant volatility, with the A-share market showing recovery after a sharp decline on April 7. Sectors such as leisure food, general retail, beverage and dairy, and agriculture have seen cumulative gains exceeding 11% since April, marking them as bright spots in the market [1] - Multiple brokerage research teams have actively provided professional analysis and macroeconomic outlooks, indicating a strong belief that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market is far from over [1][2] - Central Huijin's liquidity support for stabilizing the stock market has been emphasized, with analysts expressing confidence in the government's commitment to maintaining market stability [2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the funding environment will remain relatively loose in May, primarily driven by medium to long-term capital entering the market. The focus will shift to technology, green sectors, consumption, and infrastructure in the medium term [3] - The performance of recommended stocks by brokerages has been closely monitored, with 43 brokerages recommending 265 stocks in April, of which 120 stocks outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, representing 45.28% [5] - Notably, three stocks have seen gains exceeding 50% in April, with Wanchen Group leading at 53.11%, followed by Kexing Pharmaceutical at 52.99%, and Xianda Co. at 51.76% [5][6] Group 3 - The most recommended stock in April was Qingdao Beer, which was recommended by nine brokerages, showing a modest gain of 1.51%. In contrast, Gree Electric, recommended by seven brokerages, experienced a slight decline of 0.53% [6] - The brokerage stock combination index reflects the "mining" capability of brokerage research teams, with only ten brokerage stock combination indices showing an increase since April [6]

中信证券：中国的政策选项更多、空间 更大、能耗更久 贸易战僵持阶段，超预期的刺激和基于妥协的贸易协议都很难发生；僵持阶段比的是两国的经济韧性，中 国的政策选项更多、空间更大、能耗更久。对美国而言，7月前大规模的国债到期可能会是美国所谓"对等 关税"政策的第一个动摇点。 A股也是此次提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心，港股可能是阶段性的薄弱 环节，但也要看到内地资金依旧整体明显低配港股。配置上，从规避不确定性的角度，自主科技、受益欧 洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利以及不依赖短期业绩的题材料将占优。 兴业证券：市场将更加"以我为主" 上周海外持续混乱、动荡之下，来自外部不确定性的扰动仍在继续。而中国国内自身是平稳的。持续修复 的经济基本面，以及近期面对不确定性冲击的及时应对，包括中长期构建双循环的发展格局和战略定力， 均构成市场的稳定锚。 （类）平准基金横空出世后的磨底阶段，市场有调整压力的窗口，防御资产（银行、公用事业，高股息） 可能有绝对+相对收益；市场企稳反弹阶段，是反击资产（半导体）和对冲资产（新消费）占优。 后续，随着稳定资本市场预期的信心不断增强（以A股再次探底后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]