证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 07 14 年 月 日 投资策略 国有大行强上涨趋势是否终结？ 一、策略专题：国有大行强上涨趋势是否终结？ 1.1 长期视角：宏观叙事驱动的强上涨趋势可能有多段 梳理 2016 年至今出现的行业强上涨趋势，其底层逻辑主要有两类。第一 类是宏观叙事驱动：2016~2018 年白酒、白色家电强势上涨，彼时经济复 苏提振后周期行业盈利预期，同时资金对稳定高 ROE 所反映的股东回报 也愈发青睐；2020~2021 年白酒、白色家电再次出现强上涨趋势，在经济 面临不确定性的背景下，稳定的盈利能力较为稀缺。第二类则为产业景气 驱动，包括 2019~2021 年的半导体，2020~2022 年的电池、光伏设备。 两类行业虽同为强上涨趋势，但具体表现存在差异。历史经验看，宏观叙 事的影响时间较长，对应行业可能出现多段上涨趋势，白酒、白色家电在 2016~2021 年期间均出现三轮大级别的股价上涨。产业景气驱动下的行 业强上涨趋势则具体表现为一次二波，即行业一次性走出极强的上涨趋 势，期间又分为第一波的景气启动、第二波的景气兑现，两波之间有一段 不算太长的过渡期 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "midlife crisis" originated from American psychologist Elliott Jacques in 1965, who noted that individuals around the age of 48 often experience a sudden awareness of their mortality and limitations, leading to feelings of crisis [2][3] - The term gained popularity in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s, coinciding with increased life expectancy and the entry of women into the workforce, which created new competitive pressures for middle-aged men [3][4] - In China, the term "midlife crisis" began to gain traction in the 1990s, largely due to media coverage that highlighted the anxieties associated with aging and societal expectations [4] Group 2 - The phenomenon of midlife crisis is closely linked to societal structures and economic models, where individuals around the age of 35 are perceived as experiencing a decline in value due to higher salary expectations and increased family responsibilities [5][6] - There is a systemic undervaluation of individuals over 35, as policies often set age limits that marginalize this demographic, leading to a perception that they are no longer a priority for support and development [12][16] - The marketing and business strategies often favor younger demographics, neglecting the significant potential of the 35+ age group, which possesses wealth, diverse needs, and loyalty [16][18] Group 3 - The midlife crisis can manifest in various ways, including impulsive behavior, emotional instability, and a heightened awareness of aging and mortality, affecting both men and women [19][20] - Common signs of midlife crisis include a desire for change, increased focus on appearance, and questioning life choices, which can lead to significant life changes such as job changes or relationship reevaluations [20][21] - The crisis is often exacerbated by societal pressures and expectations regarding age milestones, which can amplify feelings of inadequacy and anxiety [9][10][15] Group 4 - Addressing midlife crisis involves recognizing the signs, allowing time for adjustment, and seeking support from trusted individuals or professionals to navigate the emotional turmoil [23][25][26] - The process of coping with midlife crisis typically includes stages of awareness, action, and resolution, where individuals may seek to redefine their goals and values [24][28] - It is crucial to understand that midlife crisis is a common experience that can lead to personal growth and a reevaluation of life priorities, rather than a definitive endpoint [28][29]

Group 1: Global Economic and Political Landscape - The current period is marked by a restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, coinciding with China's economic transformation and upgrading [1] - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks in May indicates a temporary easing of bilateral trade relations, but deep-seated strategic competition is expected to persist, particularly in high-tech sectors [1] - China's "dual circulation" development strategy is being accelerated to address external challenges and stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - A significant turning point is anticipated in the global macro policy environment in the second half of 2025, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank [2] - China's fiscal policy will continue to play a crucial role in counter-cyclical adjustments, with plans for more robust fiscal measures, including increased special bond issuance and targeted support for housing and land reserves [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential further reductions in reserve requirements and loan prime rates [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Structural investment opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to focus on technology, new consumption, stable dividend assets, and central government leverage [5] - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and military applications, is highlighted as a key area for investment due to ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition [5] - The capital market is projected to exhibit resilience and vitality, with a focus on high-quality development and opportunities in autonomous innovation, consumption upgrades, and energy transition [6]

Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]